19/03/2010

Cheltenham Festival - Day 4



Here we go then, Denman vs Kauto round 3.
I'm a massive Denman fan and I have to stay loyal to him today. He's out to 5/1 on Betfair and that is too big. His Hennessy win was pretty amazing off 174 and I just hope his fall at Newbury hasn't left any scars. I think the big meeting's wake him up however and I remain hopeful. The drying ground is only an issue in that a more severe test is more in his favour than Kauto Star's but he does act on a fast surface. Kauto Star is the best National Hunt horse to have run for forty years but it's always been my opinion that he is vulnerable at Cheltenham when they go a decent clip. In 2008 he made mistakes on the first circuit before Denman put it too him and in 2006 he actually fell in the two mile Champion Chase when favourite. He's certainly not as much of a cert as Big Bucks was yesterday. I've also backed Cooldine at 14s as a fast run race on this decent ground will suit.

Gold Cup
Denman £60win @ 9/2
Cooldine £20win @ 14/1

18/03/2010

Cheltenham Festival - Day 3

Strange day yesterday, I was certain I had the RSA covered but got blown out of the water. However, all my each ways were placed and I actually finished in front on the day.
I've already tucked into the World Hurdle and the Ryanair ante-post but all my selections are still at backable prices.
In the Ryanair I like Tranquil Sea. He won the Paddy Power at Cheltenham in November but for some reason the horse he beat that day Poquelin has always been shorter in the betting. I put that down to Paul Nicholls being the trainer. This has been a race that for awhile i've been totally against a number of the runners. Barber's Shop, Voy Por Ustedes and Schinder's Hunt are animals I couldn't really have at any price. One in double figures I do like is Planet of Sound. Third in the Arkle last year he ran a really eye-catching second giving weight to Albertas Run when stepped up in trip in November and I thought then that he'd be a Ryanair horse. Unfortunately he is a horse that makes the odd mistake and indeed he fell when favourite for a race last month. From a talent point of view he's with the best in this and for me his error prown profile is factored in his price.
In the World Hurdle i really cannot oppose Big Bucks. He's the most solid of all Nicholls hot pots this year. But in the market without him I really like Karabak. In his last three starts he has finished second to Big Bucks, Zaynar over a trip that suited the Henderson animal more and the top class Mikael D'Haguenet in the Baring Bingham at last year's festival. It takes a really top notch animal to beat him and for me after Big Bucks there isn't much worthwhile opposition in the race
Day 3 Bets:

Ryanair
Tranquil Sea £30win @ 11/2
Planet of Sound £15ew @ 12/1

World Hurdle
Karabak £30win @ 100/30 (without Big Buck's)

Mikael D'Haguenet

Mikael D'Haguenet

17/03/2010

Cheltenham Festival - Day 2

Nick Williams is the up and coming trainer in NH racing and I decided to follow his stable last year. He hasn't had a Festival winner as yet but Reve De Silvola and James De Vassy should both go well at big prices for him tomorrow. The former can be a dodgy jumper but he ran really well in a very hot Triumph Hurdle last year and he's a daft price (14s) especially as one of his victims in his last win is trading at half his price. James De Vassy runs in the big Handicap Hurdle and he has good form with Kyhber Kim who was second in the Champion Hurdle.
I'm against Diamond Harry (Nick's best horse) in the RSA however. This is because I am in a fantastic position in this race having taken a chance on Long Run at 6/1 (when there was a debate as to whether or not he'd go for this or the Arkle) and then topping up when he was a confirmed runner. Punchestowns I initially backed at 12s when he was found lame the other morning as he seemed the only danger to my selection and I have backed him since as well.
Looking at the market now my two selections are so much shorter than the prices I have that it might pay to have a little on
Diamond Harry as extra cover. Like yesterday i'm gonna include him in a small double.
Wednesday's biggest race is the Queen Mother Champion Chase and i'm solidly with Kalahari King in this. A fast ground horse who ran really well in the Arkle last year I think he is well capable of shaking up the hot favourite and should be guaranteed to reach the frame. And each way selection to nothing imo.

Day 2 Bets:

Baring Bingham Novice Hurdle
Reve De Sivola £15e/w @ 14/1

RSA Chase
Long Run £30win @ 47/10
Punchestowns £30win @ 53/10
Diamond Harry and Master Minded (Champion Chase) £20win Double @ Betfair SP

Queen Mother Champion Chase
Kalahari King £15e/w @ 11/2

Coral Cup
James De Vassy £15e/w @ 20/1


16/03/2010

Cheltenham Festival - Day 1








At last we're here. I have a number of bets today most of which were placed awhile ago.

In the Arkle I first backed Sizing Europe for the race in September at 22/1 and I have been topping up on occasion ever since, the last bet being last night. He's the best jumper of fences in the field and still represents value at around 11/2. The favourite Captain Cee Bee is around 3s and that is a terrible price. He may have beaten my selection last time out when he was going


better but tipped up at the last if he'd stayed on his feet - but that is the question with that horse - he hits fences, and for me he either won't get round or will clout a few that will knock the wind out of him. I also think SE wasn't at his best last time out and is a horse that goes well fresh. The main danger is Somersby who did look terrific when he won his Novice Chase at Sandown. He warrants a cover bet so i've decided to stick him in a double with Dunguib, who looks rock solid in the opener

In the big handicap i'm with Casey Jones a classy irish chaser who ran ok in the RSA last year. He should run well.

The Champion Hurdle is a very open contest and the only angle I can and have gone with here is that the form of the 2009 renewal (the first three from that race all line-up today) has proven pretty worthless. So I cannot have Punjabi, Binocular or Celestial Halo. I backed Go Native a few months ago simply because he's won a couple of important trials and triumphed here in the Supreme last year. I think he's rock solid. My other bet is Zaynar. I was premature backing him awhile back at 7s as he is now 10s but I have topped up. Naturally the distance is a worry and i'm not too confident but his current drift is down to him working poorly last week. The same thing happened last year when he drifted for the Triumph but he still won that race. I can certainly see him reaching the frame.

Day 1 Bets:

ARKLE
Sizing Europe £40win @ 79/10
Dunguib (Supreme) and Somersby £20win double @ Betfair SP

WH Trophy
Casey Jones £10win @ 22/1 £15pl @ 5/1

Champion Hurdle
Hurricane Fly - Non-Runner
Go Native £25win @ 52/10
Zaynar £25win @ 88/10 £10pl @ 5/







09/03/2010

Cheltenham - Ante-post

Not posted for awhile, reason being I simply haven't had a bet. After the new year I generally don't get involved until the Festival. It wasn't until the early 00s that I even bothered much with the Jumps but since going online in 2004 and actually visiting Cheltenham in 05 I have become more and more keen until i'd say it's as important to me as the Flat nowadays. Anyway, i've been having the odd bet on this year's races since September and my current list is:

Arkle
£20w Sizing Europe @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle
£20w Hurricane Fly NR
£20w Go Native @ 11/2
£20w Zaynar @ 86/10

Baring Bingham
£15TBP Reve De Sivola @ 11/4

RSA
£25w Long Run @ 48/10
£10w Punchestowns @ 92/10

Coral Cup
£15ew James De Vassy @ 20/1

Ryanair
£15ew Planet of Sound @ 14/1
£25w Tranquil Sea @ 11/2


World Hurdle
£20w Karabak (w/o Big Bucks) @ 32/10
£10w Karabak @ 95/10

Gold Cup
£40w Denman @ 7/2
£5w Aran Concerto NR
£20w Cooldine @ 145/10