Irish 2000 Guineas

I've already gone through this race on a previous post when mentioning the ante-post bet I have on Fencing Master. I have since topped up the bet.

Fencing Master £60win @ 58/10 Lost

(+47)

Ante-Post....near and far.

A couple of Ballydoyle colts are interesting me at the moment for races in the near and far future.

First off i'm quite keen on Fencing Master for the Irish 2000 Guineas upcoming on Saturday. I saw a picture of this animal at the trainer's open day a few weeks ago and he really took the eye but looked really bulky. It was obvious to me he would need his first run and I left him alone at Newmarket. Over the stiffer mile of the Curragh and with that run under his belt I really fancy him to go close.

Of the opposition I think the vibes over the AOB first string, Steinbeck, suggests that he may need the run en-route to the St James Palace and I don't like Canford Cliffs at all for this. I think this stiffer track and the faster pace we'll get in the race because of the O'Brien pacemakers will not suit. Fencing Master has far more scope for improvement than the rivals he faced at Newmarket.

My other dabble is on Fame & Glory in the Arc in October. It is very early to be getting involved but the 16/1 available is just too big too resist. His best form easily wins this race and I presume the main reason he is trading at such long odds is that he ran poorly in the race last year. But that run came on the back of his best ever outing when chasing home the magnificent Sea the Stars in the Irish Champion Stakes. I'm of the opinion that that lung bursting run finished the horse for season and I would hope that the trainer will give him a proper "Arc prep" this year.

Ante-Post

Irish 2000 Guineas - Fencing Master £20win @ 7/1

Arc - Fame & Glory £10win @ 16/1

Changes to Blog

I've decided now to keep a running profit and loss level. I will edit each post with it's revised profit or loss figure after each bet has been settled. I do a lot of punting on Betfair and so these figures will be net of any commission I have to pay.

For the record my loss for the 2009 Flat season was £350 and my profit on the Jumps was £190

Ante-Post

Some ante-post views.

Immediately after the 2000 Guineas I took all the 7/2 and 4/1 I could about St Nicholas Abbey for the Derby as I thought he ran a decent trial for the race. He was expected to win the first classic but I didn't see how he could win it with his pedigree, especially on fast ground. His RP Trophy form still looks the best on offer and with challengers falling by the wayside and his stablemate winning the Dante his odds dropped to around 9/4 I did a little laying off and now have a decent wager at good odds.

After Paco Boy's impressive victory in the Lockinge the bookmakers over-reacted making him joint favourite with Rip Van Winkle for the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot. Leaving the top class filly Goldikova at a mouth watering 7/2. If she turns up and we have decent ground on the day I cannot see her being anywhere near those odds. She's been beaten first time out as a 3 and 4yo but conditions were against her both times (heavy ground then soft over 9f)

Derby - £90win @ 4/1 St Nicholas Abbey

Queen Anne - £20win @ 7/2 Goldikova

Victoria Cup

I really like Prime Exhibit for today's big handicap at Ascot. Richard Fahey's charge was second (well clear of the third) in the Lincoln and I think the winner that day is a really good horse, a prospect for Group races, so at 18.5 on the Exhanges I have to get involved. Two negatives could be a low draw and the presence of Mabait, a Luca Cumani horse who was ridiculously impressive at Sandown and is on a five timer. So to overcome these negatives I have backed my main fancy each way and even though Mabait is 5/1 he is hard to fault even with a ten pound hike in the weights.

Prime Exhibit - £20ew @ 175/10 Lost

Mabait - £40win @ 5/1 Lost

(+£107)

1000 Guineas

It's all about Special Duty in the Fillies Classic. I've backed the winner in this race seven times and it's a race I love obviously. My fancy has the best form in the book, is a course winner and her trainer knows how to win the race having saddled the winner three times in the past. Come On!!!

Special Duty £90win @ 4/1 Won

(+£187)