31/07/2010

Goodwood - Saturday

Much as I love this meeting I really haven't fancied much, hence my lack of activity on this blog. Today however I do have a couple of wagers.
In the Nassau Stakes we have Stacelita available to back at a little under 4/1 and Midday is 9/4. Yet, on a line through Dar Rei Mi and Sariska I would say that the former is the better animal. This bet just comes down to the French 4yo being the wrong price. End of.
In the Stewards Cup I am siding with Genki. He won the race last year with tons in hand and although he's rated 106 this time round I'm not too fussed about weight at this track.

Stacelita £40w @ 38/10 (lost)

Genki £40w @ 95/10 (lost)

(-268.27)

28/07/2010

Goodwood - Wednesday

Today Rip Van Winkle bids to become the first horse to win the Sussex Stakes two years on the run. I feel he has a good shot with the 3yo Canford Cliffs a slightly dodgy odds-on shot. The latter has never faced anything in Rip's class before and although O'Brien's horse ran poorly first time out in the Queen Anne I rate him a bet at 11/4 in what is in effect a two horse contest. Fame & Glory was disappointing in his first outing before bouncing back to form and I'm hopeful of a similar thing happening today.

Rip Van Winkle £40w @ 11/4 (won)

(-188.27)

23/07/2010

King George

I have gone through this race when posting my ante-post updates and I am quite sweet on Harbinger. His price hasn't moved much since I backed him a few weeks ago and I did top up a few days ago.

Harbinger £40w @ 100/30 (won)

(-148.27)

15/07/2010

Ante-Post Update

Arc:
Fame and Glory £10@16/1

King George:
Harbinger £20@100/30

Yesterday the Grand Prix De Paris was run in France and I was really taken by Planteur. He finished second but was given a bit of a poor ride by his jockey who had him too far back in a fairly slow run race and went for the whip a bit soon also. At 165/10 on Betfair he makes a fair amount of appeal as support to my Game and Glory wager. I have also topped up on him. So, my positions now are as follows:

Arc:
Fame and Glory £15w @ 10/1
Planteur £10w @ 165/10

King Gorge:
Harbinger £20w @ 100/30

------------------------
Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

10/07/2010

Sat 10th July

I've been on a bit of a losing streak since Royal Ascot but I have a couple of bets today and I'm hopeful of a turnaround.
In the big race at York I've been backing Forte Dei Marmi for this for a few weeks and had him in my notebook since his win in the Zetland race at Redcar. A couple of "unlucky losers" at the Royal meeting has kept his price up and he's my most important bet since last summer.
In the 3.30 at Ascot I really like the look of Arizona John. This was a seemingly exposed 5yo handicapper over around a mile who was stepped up to 10f for the first time in his last race at Pontefract and won his race very cozily. He's out of a Caerleon mare so on the face of it I'm surprised he wasn't moved up before. He rates a decent bet at just over 6/1.

Forte Dei Marmi £60w @ 8/1 (lost)

Arizona John £30w @ 62/10 (lost)

(-281.6)

09/07/2010

July Cup

I'm not really a fan of Group race Sprints and rarely get involved but the way the market has been set up for this race suggests you'd be a fool not to. The Golden Jubilee at the royal meeting was won by Starspangledbanner in impressive fashion but there may have been a draw bias that day and it can be expensive to take form at Ascot literally away from the track - it's a bit of a strange place since they relayed it.

So, I'm going for the scattergun approach and have backed three at big prices each way for small money. Kingsgate Native has won at Group 1 level in the past and I think may be better at 6f than 5f as he ages and of course is now a gelding. This stiff 6 should suit Varenar who won the Foret over 7f last October and Showcasing looked a sprinter of proper quality when winning at York before disappointing in the Golden Jubilee

3x£5 win and 3x £5place on:
Varenar @ 35/1 and 8/1
Kingsgate Native @ 15/1 and 4/1
Showcasing @ 25/1 and 9/2


(-191.6)

08/07/2010

Ante-Post Update

Another update. I'll post details of the bet I have on Forte Dei Marmi for the John Smith's Cup on Saturday tomorrow.
On this up date I will also from now on post the bets I have started to make for next year's Cheltenham Festival. I have also taken a slice of the 4.3 available about Harbinger for the King George at the end of the month. The horses form looks better and better and was given another boost on the July Course today.

Arc
Fame and Glory £10w @ 16/1

King George
Harbinger £20w @ 100/30



Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

05/07/2010

Falmouth Stakes

My biggest winner thus far this year was Special Duty in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. She returns there on Wednesday, admittedly on the July course rather than the Rowley mile, and I think she is a cracking bet at 4/1 for this Group 1. Ballydoyle have the favourite in this in Lillie Langtry and whilst she is to be feared her form suggest she has a similar chance to my choice but is two points shorter in the betting.
This will also be Special Duty's first run on the fast ground she loves since winning the Cheveley Park in October.


Special Duty £40w @ 4/1 (lost)

(-161.6)

03/07/2010

3rd July - Haydock and Sandown

Couple of really good cards today and I have bets in two races.

First off in a really ropey looking Eclipse Stakes at Sandown I want to be against the front three in the market for the following reasons: Twice Over ran poorly in the race last year, Dar Rei Mi is better over further and Zacinto is a miler. That really just leaves Mawatheeq who looked really progressive last year and Viscount Nelson who ran ok in the French Derby. I'm not totally convinced by either of them to be honest but in a really poor renewal they're worth small wagers at relatively decent odds.

In the Old Newton Cup at Haydock Hanoverian Baron stands out like a sore thumb after his win at York last month. These are the sort of horses I want to be with more and more these days - animals who have been winning handicaps fairly easily and not going up that much. It's odds of a shade over 9/2 aren't great on the face of it but compare them to 2/1 about Twice Over in the Eclipse and it's clear where my money should be going. A lot of these big handicaps aren't as competitive as they first appear.

Mawatheeq £25w @ 62/10 (refused to enter stalls - money back)
Viscount Nelson £25w @ 76/10 (lost)

Hanoverian Baron £40w @ 47/10 (lost)

(-121.6)