Lexus Chase

I spent most of the Christmas period anxiously wondering whether or not the King George would get the go ahead and to my disappointment the whole meeting was called off yesterday. I'd prefer the race to be run closer to it's new date of January 15th but at least (for Long Run's sake) it remains at Kempton.

It's been awhile since I had a bet but one of my ante-post fancies for the Festival runs in Ireland's big race tomorrow and I've taken the 7/1 about Pandorama available at Hills. I think you can easily forgive his non-run really in our Hennessy last month and he remains a chaser with a lot of promise. To all intents and purposes this is his first run of the season and there is a possibility he might tire on very deep ground. For this reason I think the safest course would be to take a slice of the 4/1 available about Cooldine. This animal rates the main danger as he was only beaten a neck by Joncol in the Irish Hennessy last season and should be able to turn the tables now.

The rest look either too old, too exposed or are not good enough.

Pandorama £50w @ 7/1 (won)
Cooldine £30w @ 4/1 (lost)


(+681.2)

Ante-Post Update

16/12/10

After a fantastic day's racing at Fairyhouse on Wednesday Hurricane Fly took most of the headlines but Mikael D'Haguenet was the horse at the forefront of my mind after his run in the Drinmore. He stumbled upon landing at the last and couldn't keep his feet but up until then he had travellend beautifully and I'm convinced he will be a future star. So I have topped up my bet on him for the RSA and just in case Mr Mullins plumps for the Arkle I have opened up a position on that race also.


King George

Long Run £30w @ 6/1

Sizing Europe £20ew @ 16/1

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Cheltenham Festival:

Arkle
Mikael D'Haguenet £5w  @ 17/1

Champion Hurdle

Dunguib £10w @ 23/1

Champion Chase

Master Minded £40w @ 11/2

RSA Chase

Mikael D'Haguenet £25w @ 84/10

World Hurdle

Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Gold Cup

Somersby £5w @ 20/1

Pandorama £5w @ 47/1

Mad Max £5w @ 77/1

Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1

Denman £20w @ 8/1

Cheltenham - Dec 11th

A terrific card at the track today and whilst I am keen to take on Little Josh in the big handicap chase I can't find anything too appealing in the race now that Barry Geraghty has deserted Mad Max for Dave's Dream. Race of the day for me is the Bula where Menorah takes on Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti. Three classy looking horses that all bring different form lines to a fascinating contest. The layers have Cue Card as favourite at under 2/1 whereas Menorah, who looked ultra classy when winning the Greatwood under top weight, has touched 9/4 on Betfair and that has to be taken. I think the prices for those two are the wrong way round. I also think he will trade shorter in running. I can't rule out Silviniaco Conti but he's stepping back in trip today and that can't be to his advantage against such speedy types.

Menorah £80w @ 9/4 (In Running keep bet for £40 @ 16/10 placed) (won)


(+361.2)

Cheltenham - Dec 10th

Today's Cross Country race at Cheltenham has to pass an inspection at 10.30 but if it gets the go ahead I like the look of Maljimar. Last year's renewal of this contest was his first try at this sort of event and he ran a cracker all things considered beaten around 3 lengths into third behind Garde Champetre and Sizing Australia - both of whom renew rivalry today. The former is approaching 12 years of age and may not be as good as he was, and my fancy is 5lbs better off with the latter. Sizing Australia may be a couple of years younger than Maljimar but he's quite experienced over these obstacles and for me isn't open to as much improvement over them, Nick Williams charge looking a tad uncomfortable initially last year before finding his rhythm late on.

Maljimar £40w @ 82/10


Void - Race Abandoned

Ante-Post Update

Up until Saturday my position on the Cheltenham Gold Cup was that I thought we'd have a new winner as the so called big three were all getting on a bit and were a bit short in the betting for me. Denman's performance in the Hennessy changed that and the fact that he will go to the Festival without another race is a big plus as I think he left his Gold Cup behind when falling in the Aon at Newbury last season. As for the winner, Diamond Harry is some beast when he gets into a nice rhythm but I have my doubts about that happening at Cheltenham.
I've not had a bet on the Champion Hurdle yet but I note that Binocular has drifted to a generally available 9/2 and his conqueror the other day, Peddlers Cross, is only 6s. That price differential needs to be wider and I've asked for 5.8 on Betfair.

King George
Long Run £20w @ 6/1
Sizing Europe £20ew @ 16/1

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Cheltenham Festival:

Champion Hurdle
Dunguib £5w @ 23/1

Champion Chase
Master Minded £40w @ 11/2

RSA Chase
Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 9/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5W @ 10/1

Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1
Mad Max £5w @ 77/1
Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1
Denman £20w @ 8/1