29/10/2011

Ante-Post Update

Posting this a few hours after Time for Rupert's disappointing defeat in the Charlie Hall. I say disappointing but I mean for my bank balance rather than his Gold Cup prospects. Rupert looked burly today and got tired towards the end of the race which led to the odd mistake. That said he and Weird Al pulled well clear of Chicago Grey and I have topped up at Hills, who actually lengthened him to 16/1. 

During the last couple of days I have been studying for the first big race of the year, the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham on 12th Nov. For these big handicaps I tend to favour classy top weights but Wishfull Thinking seems to have a lot on his plate considering his mark (164 - Denman won his first Hennessy off 161!) and the overall impression I get is that if Mon Parrain can transfer the effortless round of jumping he had at Aintree in April to Cheltenham he will not get beat. That isn't guaranteed of course and backing a horse for a big race there who hasn't run at the track before is naturally a risky proposition. He was so economical in the Topham though that I think it's worth the risk at his price.


Paddy Power:
Mon Parrain £50w @ 66/10

Betfair Chase:
Diamond Harry £10w @ 10/1
Kauto Star Laid @ 6/1 for £20

King George:
Captain Chris £18w @ 98/10

----------------
Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £40w @ 11/1

RSA:
Hidden Cyclone £10w @ 29/1

Champion Chase:
Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1

28/10/2011

Jumps are back - waay heyy!

I'm stoked for the start of the Jumps. The winter game seems to get better every year and with me having my best ever punting season last year I'm looking forward to another profitable one (hopefully.) I've even managed to rope in some work colleagues into giving me some money so I can create a ten-to-follow syndicate and I'll be knocking together around ten entries before the off on the 12th Nov.

As I mentioned earlier in the week Time for Rupert is a horse I have high hopes for this season and having backed him earlier in the week for tomorrow's Charlie Hall at Wetherby I topped up once he was declared this morning. He's a good price for the race as is the favourite, Diamond Harry. It's very unusual for the front two in the market in any race to both be backable and I put that down to the presence of Nacarat in the race. This flashy grey won the race last year but carries a big penalty as a result. That, coupled with the fact that the race this year is a far stronger renewal gives him little chance in my opinion. But bookmakers aren't stupid and he's the sort of animal who will attract support no matter what the price - so why not make him 6/1 instead of a more realistic 12s?

Time for Rupert £80w @ 4/1 (lost)

25/10/2011

Wetherby - 29th Oct

I didn't anticipate a bet in this race, one that looks a proper match between Time for Rupert and Diamond Harry. But then again I wouldn't have thought any bookmaker would have had Poquelin at shorter odds for it than my Gold Cup fancy. 9/2 taken gladly and I will top up once he's a confirmed runner on Thursday.

Time for Rupert £50w @ 9/2

23/10/2011

Ante-Post Update

I was at Aintree yesterday and whilst I didn't have any proper bets it was marvelous to be in the crisp open air on a fine autumnal day watching Jump racing. I'm no photographer but I managed to get a half decent picture of Monet's Garden in the parade ring before the race named after him.

Anyway, all things lead to the Festival in March and I have my share of bets already and have had for awhile.
Sprinter Sacre is a horse I immediately had in mind for the Arkle after his fine third in the Supreme back in March. He strikes as a fine, big chasing type, more so than any of the placed runners in a fine renewal of that Novice Hurdle. None of the leading contenders have jumped a fence yet (I expect Cue Card to be aimed elsewhere) but it looks like a cracking year for novice chasers.

I think the Queen Mother Champion Chase is more wide open than I can ever remember it and the record of the previous year's Arkle winners in the race point towards Captain Chris being worth a bet. I'm a big fan of this horse and thought he'd be my Hennessy bet after he ran really well behind Medermit at Sandown in February over what looked an inadequate two and a half miles - hence me not fancying him at all for the Arkle :(. I think he's going to be a big player this season and I have already punted him for the King George. As for my reasons behind backing him for that race and the Queen Mother, I suppose I'm kind of thinking if he gets beat at Kempton he'll be two mile bound and so I'll have two bites at the cherry so to speak. In any event plans are fluid this time of year and he shouldn't be longer in the market than Finian's Rainbow - a horse he beat very convincingly back in March.

My Gold Cup horse, Time for Rupert, runs at Wetherby next Saturday. This chaser looked an absolute can't miss superstar before his too bad to be true run in the RSA and I think that run, which can be ignored for me, is factored too much into his price. I also think Long Run is way too short at the moment. The likes of Kauto Star and Denman getting to, and running really well in the Gold Cup year after year has made it look easier to get a staying chaser to the race that many times than it actually really is - and I think odds of 5/2 about Nicky Henderson's star at this stage are crazy - and I have to look for alternatives.

Betfair Chase:
Diamond Harry £5w @ 11/1

King George:
Captain Chris £10w @ 10/1

----------------
Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £30w @ 116/10

Champion Chase:
Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1

14/10/2011

Ascot - 15th October

Here we go then, with a last throw of the dice to try and make my Flat season at least respectable. I haven't really got going all year, haven't had any season changing bets like I kept having during the winter. It is possible as I get older and more experienced as a punter that the Jumps game is better suited to my style. Certainly the last three or four years seems to suggest that is the case.

The only race that appeals this weekend from a punting point of view is the Champion Stakes. I have already fully discussed this contest in my ante-post updates and the only thing to add now is a general disappointment that the ground isn't softer, and also that I have doubled my bet on So You Think. I think the record of Coolmore animals coming to this race after the Arc (Montjeu, Hurricane Run and Fame and Glory were all short priced losers) has kept his price honest and I think he'll take a world of beating. He's a big, strong animal who looks the type to take a lot of racing.

Cirrus Des Aigles £80w @ 77/10 (won)
So You Think £50w @ 26/10 (lost)


(+199.2)

07/10/2011

Ante-Post Update

It's taken a few days to recover from the crushing blow of seeing Sarafina not win the Arc in Paris but I'm ready to roll again. Looking back at that race I really should have been more cautious after the draw was made and could certainly have reduced my bet.
Anyway, my big hope heading into the Autumn was for one big winner to get my flat season well into the green and with Sarafina down I have one bullet left and that is Cirrus Des Aigles in the Champion Stakes next Saturday. The news that So You Think is a likely runner at Ascot is a blow to be honest as the race looked like it was cutting up fine. King George winner Nathaniel I couldn't have at all, mainly because the form of that race is pretty worthless, and it seems to me that the Cecil pair, Midday and Twice Over, were there more for their trainer's Championship hopes than any realistic chance they might have. But the Aussie horse is a massive danger and I have covered as well as topped up on the French gelding.

As for the other bets on the list, the Jumps season kicks into gear very shortly and my initial ante post bets here will be discussed once I'm done with the Flat.

Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £80w @ 77/10
So You Think £25w @ 29/10


------------------------
Betfair Chase:
Diamond Harry £5w @ 11/1

King George:
Captain Chris £10w @ 10/1

Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £30w @ 116/10

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £20w @ 16/1

02/10/2011

Longchamp - 2nd October

Biggest day of the flat year and as well as the Arc I'm having a go on Sole Power in the Abbaye. This Irish trained gelding has his conditions today (5F on fast ground) and is simply too big a price. He's a decent win and place bet in a race I don't usually get involved in so stakes are low.

I've written at length about the Arc. Very confident.

Sole Power £15w @ 86/10 and £25pl @ 9/4 (3rd)

Sarafina £180w @ 52/10 (lost)
St Nicholas Abbey £40w @ 24/1 and £40pl @ 69/10 (lost)
Galikova £40w @ 84/10 (lost)


(-361.8)

01/10/2011

Longchamp - 1st October

Cirrus Des Aigles is a gelding I've taken fancy prices about for the Champion Stakes in a fortnight. After getting beat by Sarafina at Saint Cloud in June he's on a four timer having been incredibly impressive in his last three starts and I couldn't believe the price Coral came up with initially for the Ascot race. So with that bet in mind I wasn't too happy to see him declared for today's Group 2 Prix Dollar. However, I'm not overly impressed with his opposition today and think he's worth a wager at 9/4.

Cirrus Des Aigles £60w @ 9/4 (lost)


(-100.3)

Prix de l'arc de Triomphe

I've completed my bets on this this morning. St Nicholas Abbey has been confirmed a runner and whilst I can't really fancy him too strongly I think he has cracking place prospects. I'm for Sarafina, SNA and Galikova and against Workforce and So You Think and the 3yo Colts.

Sarafina £180w @ 52/10
St Nicholas Abbey £40w @ 24/1 and £40pl @ 69/10
Galikova £40w @ 84/10