29/04/2012

Jumps Season - Post Script

Well, all told it was a disappointing Jumps season overall but I know where the mistakes were made largely and I did have a profitable Cheltenham Festival.

I had a fantastic 2010/11 and went into the winter with an inflated bank roll and I was full of it, probably thinking I couldn't lose over the whole season. Looking back I think it's obvious it was more cockiness than confidence and some of the bets I placed early doors were a bit cringeworthy. I staked over £100 on the Charlie Hall at Wetherby, a race I'd never had a bet on before, and went over the top in my support of the second season chasers before it was really established whether or not they were up to it. Indeed I backed the likes of Medermit, Wishfull Thinking, Captain Chris, Wayward Prince, Time for Rupert and Magnanimity time and time again and never got a return on them. Big lesson learned. But overall I feel positive really, I was over a Grand down before the Festival and got a lot of it back.

I had around 70 bets which is maybe a dozen or so too many, but I will be more circumspect next season and ultimately this is my first losing Jumps season in around five years.

It was an eventful season from a sporting point of view with Kauto Star's return, Big Buck's continuing dominance (although I think his connections should be bolder and try and take in shorter races) and the rise of Sprinter Sacre. I think the staying chasers are a weak bunch at the moment with Denman and Kauto Star now at or near retirement and over the next couple of years it will be fascinating to see which animals rise to prominance in that division. Down the line Boston Bob, Fingal Bay and Simonsig will all be Gold Cup contenders in my opinion and of course Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar will race in open company next season. Hopefully two or more of that group will prove able to sustain National Hunt Racing's current purple patch.

The flat really kicks into gear next weekend and I have nice positions in both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas. I'll be posting my thoughts on those races sometime next week.

25/04/2012

Punchestown - Day 2/5

My punting at the moment is a bit like Barcelona, I keep hitting the post. Realt Dubh was another good bet yesterday that went close but just not close enough.

The big race today is a fascinating contest particulary on heavy ground. My initial bet in the race is a non-runner but I still think there is an angle in the contest. Rubi Light is probably the best jumper of a fence out of soft ground that there is in training at the moment and he really has his conditions today. The problem of course could be one of stamina. Is this being overstated in the market? In my opinion it is because the advantage the horse has over his rivals on soft ground, that superior jumping ability that conserves energy that his rivals in a race do not enjoy isn't present when he races on good ground - hence his defeats in the Lexus and Ryanair chases. He has the best form in a race where his main rivals either haven't the best completion rates (Quel Esprit) or are totally unproven on deep ground (Captain Chris)
Of course if he fails today it will be because his stamina does run out on tiring ground so for that reason as well as the 3/1 taken I have a couple of In-Running lays in place at evens and shorter.


EDIT: 28/4
The bets I placed were voided once the race was postponed and then moved to today. Unfortunately Captain Chris doesn't run so Rubi Light is a tad shorter but he's still a worthwhile bet. Paddy Power are running a money back special on the race so if my selection finishes second to Quel Esprit I get my stake back.

Gold Cup:

Quito De La Roque £20w @ 9/1 (NR)

Rubi Light £50w @ 5/2 and £30w @ 9/4 (Money back special)  (lost)


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23/04/2012

Punchestown - Day 1

I'm kind of in Flat mode at the moment so won't be getting heavily involved in this meeting but the two mile Champion Chase tomorrow has a cracking betting shape to it so I'm having a go.
Sizing Europe is a top class two miler who is by far the most likely winner of the race but he has disappointed at this Festival before after running at Cheltenham and at odds-on I feel he must be taken on. Big Zeb is if anything even worse value as his form has gone down hill this year and like the favourite he is a horse who likes good ground. It has been tipping it down in Ireland recently and the ground is going to be very deep. I think this race is primed for a shock and I have two at big prices to take the old stagers on with.

Realt Dubh goes on heavy ground, has run well at Punchestown in the past and is a fresh horse having only had one run to his name this season. That was at Cheltenham where he finished some way behind the leaders but having a pipe opener in a championship event is far from ideal and at 14/1 I think he is a good price tomorrow.

Gauvain has his conditions in this. In small field uncompetitive events this horse has beaten the likes of Somersby and Master Minded in the past and at 25/1 he's a solid bet. He's German bred by a sire Sternkoenig who acted on ground with plenty of juice in it and once again I feel this animal has been underestimated. Nick Williams hasn't had a great season but I'd love to see him end it with another Grade 1 triumph.

Champion Chase:

Realt Dubh £25w @ 14/1 (lost)

Gauvain £25w @ 25/1 (lost)


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18/04/2012

Punchestown Festival

Ireland's biggest Racing jamboree kicks off next Tuesday and whoever initially priced the Gold Cup up on Betfair (the only firm at present offering odds) made a bit of a rick in offering Quito de la Rocque up at 12/1. I think the price has all gone now and I only managed to get £12 on. He's a horse that is a bit under the radar but has a leading chance if the race is run on it's usual soft ground. His effort in finishing third in the Lexus at Leopardstown on good ground was excellent for a horse with his stayers profile and he reminds me very much of Notre Pere who won the race a couple of years ago as a fresh horse against animals that had run at Cheltenham.

Punchestown Gold Cup:
Quito de la Rocque £12w @ 12/1

13/04/2012

Aintree - 14th April

Another disappointing day on Friday although Wishfull Thinking ran a cracker. I was very interested in seeing Fingal Bay back in action and similar to Sprinter Sacre last year we will not see the best of this beast until he tackles fences. He looks a really strong animal and although I have backed Simonsig for the RSA already I will also punting this horse for whatever novice event he goes for. It's possible they will both go for the same race but at double figure prices I'll be taking that risk.

Saturday is of course Grand National day and my approach is to try and pick out four or five and kind of hope for the best really. I've posted my thoughts on the race, including the reasoning behind my selections in earlier posts. I've added a place bet on Neptune Collonges who ran a really good race behind Giles Cross (the pair of them clear) in the Grand National trial at Haydock on really soft ground a few weeks ago, and I've asked for 16s about Synchronised in running. He'll get behind in the race and may well drift to that sort of price before staying on at the end. As well as the bets already placed I've had a bit extra on three of my selections each way at Victor Chandler who are paying a quarter of the odds SIX places in the race which is a nice concession.


Chicago Grey £15w @ 23/1, £10pl @ 54/10 and £5ew @ 16/1 (VC) (bd)

Cappa Bleu £15w @ 19/1, £10pl @ 4/1 and £5ew @ 16/1 (VC) (4th)

Becauseicouldntsee £20w @ 27/1, £10pl @ 66/10 and £5ew @ 18/1 (VC) (ur)

Giles Cross £10w @ 21/1 and £10ew @ 16/1 (pu)

Neptune Collonges £15pl @ 10/1 (won)

Synchronised £20w @ 16/1 (IR bet) (f)


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Aintree - 13th April

Enjoyed a really good day at Aintree yesterday. We had a few drinks and a nice meal in Ormskirk after the racing and I even came out level on the betting front. Somewhat frustratingly I'm not able to post the bets I have that occur just before a race takes place but to be honest these are relatively few and far between. The Betfair Bowl was a nightmare race for me but I backed Menorah in the novice chase later in the card. I expected him to be around 3/1 when I looked at the race in the morning but 9/2 was freely available on course. I don't consider this to be a tipping blog though so I'm not over fussed.

The theme of today's racing for me is how poorly a few of Nicky Henderson's are running and the fact that two of his stable stars, Darlan and Finian's Rainbow, are short priced favourites. I think they both must be taken on. Darlan runs in the opening novice hurdle and he although he ran really well at Cheltenham that effort came after a heavy fall at Newbury in February and I think he might have had enough for the season now. Finian's Rainbow tries two and half miles over fences for the first time and he is way too short in the market given the fairly good chance that he won't stay or at least not be quite as effective pver this longer trip. I also think he was a tad fortunate in the Queen Mother at the Festival.

I've picked one out in each race and have had an each way double. Vulcanite in the Darlan's race will be better suited I feel to Aintree than Cheltenham where he emptied a bit after pulling early on. He ran well at Newbury the time before that and I think a flat track suits him better than a course like Cheltenham. I like Wishfull Thinking in the Melling Chase. He fell at the Festival but that was the first time he has come down over fences and I like the fact that he won here last year and the stable is in good order. I'm not too confident he will win but he doesn't deserve to be trading at longer odds than the likes of Kauto Stone and Poquelin.

Top Novices Hurdle:
Vulcanite (lost)

Melling Chase:
Wishfull Thinking

£20ew double @ 8/1 and 10/1

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11/04/2012

Aintree - 12th April.

The three day Grand National meeting starts tomorrow and I'll be in attendance for the opening day. It's not a venue I have a great record at to be honest and I think it pays to tread carefully on the betting front and I don't get too heavily involved usually.

One never knows how to treat Cheltenham form when it comes to the same horses running again here and if I am backing an animal that ran at the Festival I prefer it if it's a beast that thrives on racing and is tough. I think that applies to Medermit who runs in the Betfair Bowl, the Grade 1 chase that is the main event of the day. He has to turn the form round from the Ryanair Chase with Riverside Theatre and I think he has claims of doing just that. He strikes me as a tougher horse than Henderson's charge who for me had a harder race at Cheltenham than my fancy. Gerraghty was at it from some way out and I just think that will have left it's mark in some way. When it comes to NH racing you do find yourself becoming attached to some horses who you see year in and year out and it's hard to rationally dissect their chances in a race sometimes when you're aware of this possible bias. I really like Medermit and have a lot of faith in him - so much so that I see him as a real contender for the Gold Cup in the future.
In many ways he's an animal that has been the story of my Jumps season almost as much as Sprinter Sacre. He's been narrowly beaten on the two occasions I've backed him, bets that would have been tasty wins for me but I am confident he has the class to win tomorrow. Riverside Theatre is the danger naturally but none of the others concern me overmuch. If my selection jumps well enough he will be involved in the finish and is a decent bet at the 7.4 I got matched on Betfair yesterday evening and the general 6/1 he is now. I think he has better form in the book than Burton Port and Hunt Ball is taking an enormous step up in class and is way too short. The sentiment theme is particulary strong with this horse and the immense run he's been on but this is surely a step too far and he should be 14/1 not 7s. I've place laid him at 2.5.

Betfair Bowl:
Medermit £40w @ 64/10 (lost)

Hunt Ball - Place Laid @ 6/4 for £40 (Liability £60) (3rd)


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10/04/2012

Grand National

I posted my thoughts on the big race a couple of weeks ago and at that time my bets were:

Chicago Grey £10w @ 25/1 and £10pl @ 54/10
Becauseicouldntsee £10w @ 26/1
Cappa Bleu £10w @ 20/1
Junior £10w @ 16/1 


This week however the rains have come and it looks like we're going to have a soft ground Grand National for a change. I would suggest that this means a weight under 11st is going to be needed and for this reason I have laid back my bet on Junior for a very small loss and added Giles Cross. This horse is a decent stayer who loves soft ground and has a fine record in the Welsh National. He's been outstayed in that race a couple of times admittedly and has no experience round this course but he's a fine jumper and has claims with such a low weight to shoulder (he's set to carry 10-1.) I've topped up on my other selections.


Chicago Grey £15w @ 23/1 and £10pl @ 54/10
Becauseicouldntsee £20w @ 27/1 and £5pl @ 64/10
Cappa Bleu £15w @ 19/1 and £10pl @ 4/1
Giles Cross £10ew @ 16/1

05/04/2012

Classics - Ante-Post

I've been doing a bit of video studying over the last few days and as well as adding an interest in the 2000 Guineas to my bet on Discourse on the fillies race I have had my first bet on the Derby.

Godolphin have stated that they see my selection as more of an Oaks type, a comment that doesn't tally with her pedigree at all. She's by Street Cry out of a Dixieland Band mare. Neither of those two stallions are particulary associated with being massive stamina influences. Indeed, Carlton House, last year's Derby favourite  was a Street Cry son out of a Bustino mare (big stamina influence) and he was better at 10f. Her price did drift a tad when these views were aired and I have topped up. Last year's 1000 Guineas heroine Blue Bunting was also thought to be more of an Oaks filly but she still actually ran, and won, at Newmarket.

In the 2000 Guineas the market looks very strange. The three who head it are screaming to be taken on. Camelot looks a most promising individual but he's a Montjeu and that stallion (RIP) just doesn't get milers. He looks weak at this stage, especially with the trainer saying he's not guaranteed to run in the race. In the face of this a couple of horses have been well backed recently and follow him in the betting. We have Top Offer, a Roger Charlton entry who has only ran once, in a Newbury maiden. And Most Improved - a Brain Meehan colt who was third in a very average looking Dewhurst. They are both trading at single figures based on hype and work whispers. Gotta be taken on.
The horse I've backed is the French trained Abtaal. He won the Prix Thomas Bryon most impressively last October at Saint-cloud. Now he did have the run of the race that day, setting a slowish pace before quickening in the straight. But the manner of his success was quite taking and the form was franked subsequently. He's 20/1 for the race and I think there are a couple of reasons why he's that big. 1) He's trained overseas and 2) Is he a definite runner? Well, he's owned by Sheikh Hamdan who is based over here so I see that as a positive. Abtaal runs in the Prix Djebel at Maisons-Laffitte this afternoon and I'm hoping for a win and a performance that books his ticket to Newmarket.

As for Epsom, Camelot is going to be a tough nut to crack as he looked a horse of considerable promise in the Racing Post Trophy last season but I think the Dewhurst winner, Parish Hall, is overpriced at a little over 20/1. This horse has a pedigree ladled with stamina being by the Galileo stallion Teofilo out of a Montjeu mare. It was a  very average renewal of our premier 2yo contest that he won but the fact that he was competitive at all given his genes is a very good sign for his 3yo campaign.

2000 Guineas:
Abtaal £20w @ 20/1

1000 Guineas:
Discourse £40w @ 85/10

Derby:
Parish Hall £10w @ 21/1

EDIT: 06/04

Abtaal ran well enough in the Djebel, beaten a neck by French Fifteen (who was behind him in the Byron in a race where he didn't settle at all well.) There are doubts about my selection running at Newmarket now and he has drifted in the betting, but French Fifteen is available at 14/1 on Betfair and that price is taken. Both horses were tenderly ridden but came away from a reasonable field.

2000 Guineas:
French Fifteen £20w @ 14/1