30/11/2012

Newbury - 1st Dec

Thank god for the Hennessy tomorrow. The graded hurdle races at Newbury and Newcastle have cut up to be most uncompetitive affairs and if it wasn't for the big handicap we'd be looking at a pretty sparse looking Saturday.

The big race itself I've already written about earlier in the week and although the ground wont be as soft as I thought it was going to be at that time I remain keen on Magnanimity who on top of having form on a decent surface now has a 5lb claimer on board further reducing the weight he'll carry. It really is a fearsomely competitive race and in looking through it yesterday I found myself making cases for both Nick Williams runners, First Lieutenant, Teaforthree and Frisco Depot. I can't bet all of them though so I've backed the latter mentioned Frisco Depot. He travelled like the best horse in the race at Ascot first time out in the United House Gold Cup before falling towards the end of the race and he also has very nice pieces of form in Ireland from last season. He finished just 5 lengths behind Flemenstar at Naas in March and it's that run more than anything else that points to him being well in tomorrow off 141. I'm a huge fan of Flemenstar and the selection must be considered a decent sort to get that close to him. He also has Sam Waley-Cohen on board, further reducing his weight and at 14 on Betfair I think he's very fairly priced.

Hennessy Gold Cup:
Magnanimity £35w @ 22/1 and £15pl @ 5/1
Frisco Depot £25w @ 13/1

26/11/2012

Hennessy Gold Cup

After the Grand National this race is the biggest Handicap of the Jumps season and thanks to the immortal exploits of Denman I think it will always have a special place in the hearts of followers of the sport.

Favourite for this year's contest at present is RSA winner Bob's Worth. I have to say I'm not wholly convinced by this creature and think he is in a false position in the market for this race and the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. I backed First Lieutenant in that RSA and I feel if the gallop had been stronger he'd have won that race. He didn't settle that day and the energy lost by pulling for his head cost him at the business end of the race. First Lieutenant in theory re-opposes on Saturday but with all the rain around I'll be surprised if he comes over. Bob's Worth has high class form but he's one to oppose with a big weight on the probable soft ground he'll encounter on Saturday.

The Gigginstown Stud that own First Lieutenant also has Magnanimity in the race and I took prices in the win and place markets about him on Friday before he was pulled out of the Troytown race at the weekend. He's a decent soft ground horse who somewhat lost his way last season after a good campaign as a Novice and off 143 he looks well in and I thought at the start of the season he had a decent handicap in him. I might add another horse as we get closer to the race and the declarations are made.

Hennessy Gold Cup;
Magnanimity £10w @ 27/1 and £5pl @ 77/10

24/11/2012

Ascot & Haydock - 24th Nov

We have a couple of cracking cards today at Ascot and Haydock and the main events at both courses will have a big bearing on the market for the King George on Boxing Day.

At Haydock Long Run takes on impressive Wetherby winner Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair Chase and at Ascot Finian's Rainbow is the favourite in a cracking renewal of the Amlin Chase where he gives weight to such as For Non Stop and Captain Chris.

I'm in a good position in the King George having backed Al Ferof at 20/1 before his Paddy Power win last week and I also like Finian's Rainbow for the race as well. He had a terrific season in 2011/12 where he improved both his jumping and his ability to see out a race. He was most impressive over two and a half miles at Aintree in the spring and I think he'll stay three miles no bother. Having said that I think he could be vulnerable first time out given the conditions of the day. Captain Chris gets ten pounds from him and I think that could tip the balance in that horses's favour - although he is unproven on the soft ground. Long Run was on the whole a disappointment last season and although he has the best form in today's race by some distance I think he is poor value at short odds. He jumped poorly in the race last year and although a large part of that was trying to keep pace with the great Kauto Star it must go down as a negative given his price, especially given the really soft ground. Silviniaco Conti is a fine young chaser with a bright future and crucially he is a good jumper of a fence and that gives him an edge today imo. I don't like Weird Al or The Giant Bolster at this level.

So, two good races to look forward to with a view to another big race in a month or so. Although I favour Silviniaco Conti and Captain Chris I wouldn't say either of them are outright bets as for all there are angles in both contests that point to them ultimately they do have something to find with the market leaders of their respective races. With that in mind I have decided to just have a small double on them at Betfair SP.

As for the King George, it is possible that Finian's Rainbow could be favourite for the race this evening if he wins and Long Run gets beat so I have taken a position on him and also topped up on Al Ferof

Amlin Chase and Betfair Chase:
Captain Chris and Silviniaco Conti £20w dbl @ Betfair SP (won)

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King George:
Al Ferof £15w @ 152/10
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 8/1





19/11/2012

Open Meeting Postscript

I'm sure most Racing followers enjoyed the action at the weekend at Cheltenham. We saw some nice performances and some with loads of promise. It's always more of a watching than betting meeting for me featuring as it does plenty of good Novice events in amongst the handicaps.

I've already written about Fingal Bay and my thoughts on his performance on Friday but the following day we saw Our Father debut over fences in most taking fashion and I have added him to my Festival portfolio. He looked a big athletic jumper who won most impressively over three miles from some decent yardsticks and I consider him more of an RSA Chase type than Dynaste from the same yard. The ground on Saturday will in all likelihood be a lot slower than what will face the runners in March but Our Father still looks overpriced at 14/1 in places and I'm happy to have him on my side.

Al Ferof confirmed himself a high class chaser with conditions suiting him in the big race and my positions on him for the King George and Gold Cup look good now. He stayed really well despite the ground and his big weight and is in the mix for all the big races now.

The classiest performer on show on Sunday was Hurricane Fly over in Ireland and he was most fortunate to win as his main rival fell at the last when looking, imo, the likely winner. The Fly has been a fantastic hurdler but I don't think he's as good as he was an he's a poor value favourite for the Champion Hurdle at this point. My Spirit Son bet is down the pan unfortunately and in looking for alternatives I've settled on Grandouet. On a line of form through Overturn he pretty much holds all the principles from last March's race and I think 12/1 is fair as I'm not convinced about last year's Novices. Cinders and Ashes and Darlan both looks horses with plenty of promise but I don't think last season's Supreme Novices was anywhere near as good as 2011's epic renewal and they are poor value propositions for what they have achieved. Grandouet has superior form than both these horses, travels really well and has a good turn of foot. I think Zarkandar will be his main rival come March but at four points or so longer in the market I prefer the Henderson horse.

Elsewhere Captain Conan jumped nicely on his debut but I don't think he has the pace for the Arkle. Oscar's Well might have, however he fell on Sunday on really deep ground at Punchestown and I just hope that tumble doesn't leave it's mark. He's a horse who has run well twice at the Festival and I think he prefers good ground. Jessica Harrington has said that two and a half miles on decent going will be his optimum so Jewson rather than Arkle may be his target. Time will tell.

Ante Post List:

King George:
Al Ferof £10w @ 20/1

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Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
Grandouet £10w @ 12/1

Neptune:
Clandaw Kaempfer £10w @ 16/1

RSA:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1
Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Jewson:
Oscars Well £10w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Al Ferof £5w @ 54/1














16/11/2012

Cheltenham - 17th Nov

On the face of it Fingal Bay's run in the Novice Chase that kicked off the Open meeting today wasn't that heartening for someone with an ante-post voucher about him for the RSA Chase at the Festival but I think some positives can be gleaned from it. They only went a moderate gallop and the horse didn't settle well as a result. You'd have to think a championship event with more runners would have a far stronger pace and of course the RSA is over a fair bit further that today's event. Fingal Bay looks a proper stayer on looks, he's a big horse with a huge backside and he has an engine in him. He just got out speeded today by a good horse. He jumped nicely throughout as well though, a big positive for a novice.

I'm excited about tomorrow's big race. It looks a very good renewal of the Paddy Power and I have already posted my thoughts on the race. I have topped up my bet on Al Ferof since my last post and I think he's been underrated for this race. The Supreme Novices he won at the Festival back in 2011 is a race I must have watched at least twenty times, mostly because of Sprinter Sacre it has to be said. Al Ferof stormed up the hill that day and it remains the best run of his career. He has taken to fences well in the main despite a couple of dodgy runs late last season but this race tomorrow will be his first start in a proper big field since that epic win. He's been crying out for a decent pace and a trip in excess of two miles for a long time and he remains very unexposed. Grands Crus will be incredibly tough to beat though and I have covered on that horse both in a double and in an outright bet as he has drifted slightly since my last post. A cracking contest is in store.

Paddy Power Gold Cup:
For Non Stop £20w @ 21/1 (NR)
Al Ferof £50w @ 94/10 (won)
Grands Crus £25w @ 26/10 and £10dbl with Finian's Rainbow (King George) @ 9/4 and 8/1 (lost)

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14/11/2012

Open Meeting

Friday sees the start of Jumps Racing's first proper big meeting of the season. It's a three day event and there are numerous good horses scheduled to appear. On the Friday we have the Novice Chase that the likes of Denman and Grands Crus have won in the past opening the meeting. Fingal Bay is set to appear in this against better opposition that he faced at Chepstow the other week. The Novice Hurdle later on that afternoon features a number of very promising animals and is a must for the record button on the remote.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is the big race of the weekend and my ante-post bet on the race went south when For Non Stop wasn't declared on Monday. It looks a high class renewal and I think it will be between the second season chasers near the top of the handicap who seem well treated in the main and look to have too much class for the more exposed animals that lurk at the bottom of the weights. Having had a little on Al Ferof for the King George I was naturally interested in him when Nicholls confirmed the race as a definite for the horse at the 5 day stage. Al Ferof hasn't run in a race with a big field and a strong pace since he won the Supreme at the Festival eighteen months or so ago and he is very unexposed at this sort of trip. He jumps well enough and the sort of lead he'll get in a competitive race like this will really suit him. I got a little over 9/1 on Monday and I firmly believe he's the main danger to short price favourite Grands Crus. The Pipe horse looks well handicapped off 157 and his stable has farmed this race in the past. He was disappointing in the RSA at the Festival but he went into that race having not run since Boxing Day and I believe it was this rustiness against hard fit rivals that cost him as much as a lack of stamina. It's a poor effort that certainly kept his rating down and he must go close even if he is a bit short in the market. For that reason I have put him in a cheeky little double rather than had an outright bet on him.

Sunday's card looks top notch as well. There is a massive Handicap hurdle that I haven't really looked at yet and also the return of Sprinter Sacre to the racecourse. All in all a meeting to really get the blood pumping.

Paddy Power Gold Cup:
For Non Stop £20w @ 21/1 (NR)
Al Ferof £40w @ 925/100
Grands Crus and Finian's Rainbow (King George) £10dbl @ 9/4 and 8/1



09/11/2012

Wincanton - 10th Nov

Third Jumps bet of the season tomorrow and the third Nick Williams horse I've backed. It might seem like I follow the stable slavishly but when a Hennessy winner like Diamond Harry is 8/1 first time out against the sort of opposition he faces tomorrow on a mark 6lbs lower than the one he won on at Newbury it would be downright rude not to tuck in.

The horse had a poor season in 2011/12 but there are mitigating circumstance. First time out in the Betfair Chase he travelled really well behind Kauto Star before weakening in the straight and essentially being outclassed. No shame in that. He then ran twice at Cheltenham - a course it is clear now he absolutely does not act around. He'd plainly not recovered from those exertions when he pulled up at Aintree in April. The trainer has admitted that he's a fragile horse and he probably shouldn't have gone to Liverpool. There has been no news on any physical ailment and first time out does seem to be the time to catch him.

Tomorrow's opposition are light years away from kauto Star and Long Run and if he's anywhere near his Hennessy Gold Cup winning form (and a lack of injury news, the fact that he is still only nine years old, plus his lightly raced profile) suggests he could be - he's pretty much nailed on for this sort of contest.

I am also considering a bet in the Elite Hurdle that precedes Diamond Harry's race. Zarkandar has to give a fair bit of weight away to some decent types and I like the chances of Prospect Wells from the same Paul Nicholls stable. I'm holding off for the time being as I want to know what the ground will be. Prospect Wells was only beaten 2L in the Supreme on good ground and has ropey looking form on softer.

Edit 10th Nov:
The ground has changed to soft, good to soft in places after overnight rain at Wincanton and that puts me off Prospect Wells. His trainer actually says in today's Racing Post that he wants rain for the horse but that goes against what the form book says. On this sort of ground I like the claims of Balder Success. He looked a horse of some promise before coming down in the Triumph Hurdle and I think for such a young horse that was a monumental test for him. I think he found the lively ground and fast pace too much to cope with. The 4/1 about him today is a decent price. This sort of small field race on soft ground isn't really going to suit Zarkandar who is up against it running off 163 for all that he's a quality animal. I actually think he'd be a strong contender for the World Hurdle this season but I doubt Nicholls will let him take on Big Buck's

Elite Hurdle:
Balder Success £50w @ 4/1 (lost)

Badger Ales Trophy:
Diamond Harry £60w @ 8/1 (lost)

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07/11/2012

Sea Change in NH

The last ten days or so have been incredibly significant for the future of Jumps racing. Late last week came the news that Kauto Star had been retired and in amongst that we have had some really impressive performances by second season chasers, the new order if you will.

I was always more of a Denman man but naturally had an enormous amount of respect for Kauto Star. I saw him win a couple of his Betfair Chases in person: his narrow victory over Imperial Commander in 2009 being one of the most thrilling races I've ever seen. He'll be must missed and like Desert Orchid and Arkle, never forgotten by National Hunt fans.

For Non Stop, Silvaniaco Conti and Cue Card have all won nice races in the last week or so, and with Sprinter Sacre, Flemenstar, Sir Des Champs and Grand Crus all waiting in the wings I think the future of the sport is very bright. Let's hope they all have full seasons and get to the Festival in one piece. I will be in attendance at Sandown on Tingle Creek day and I'm hopeful that Sprinter Sacre and Sanctuaire will meet-up for a mouth watering race.

For Non Stop has shot up to a mark of 162 after his Old Roan win but I still think he has a fair each chance in the Paddy Power. He'll be fit as a butchers dog, it's clear he has progressed a fair bit since last season and I have topped up.

Ante-Post Portfolio:

Paddy Power Gold Cup:
For Non Stop £20w @ 21/1

King George:
Al Ferof £10w @ 18/1
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Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1

RSA:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Al Ferof £5w @ 54/1




02/11/2012

Ascot - 3rd Nov

There are some nice races at Ascot and Wetherby tomorrow and the bet of the day is in the three mile handicap chase at the former track where I think Alfie Spinner is weighted to go close. I foolishly backed this horse in the four miler for novices at the Festival where the trip (too far) and the ground (too lively) were against him. The ground will be soft enough tomorrow and off 140 he has a nice handicap in him over this sort of trip. After all, he ran a superb race behind Invictus and RSA winner Bob's Worth over course and distance in February. He may have been slightly flattered by that result as Bob's Worth is a Cheltenham specialist but nevertheless he's ahead of the handicapper without doubt as he goes into open company. He's 2lb wrong in this but has a 3lb claimer onboard.

United House Gold Cup:
Alfie Spinner £50w @ 66/10 (lost)

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