28/02/2013

Cheltenham - NRNB at last.

                                                           FOR NON STOP


With the NRNB concession now in place with three firms I have added two or three bets to my portfolio. As I said on Saturday I expect For Non Stop in the Ryanair to return to the sort of form that saw him run away with the Old Roan at Aintree in the Autumn after a couple of below par efforts on ground that was way to soft for him since. He's a horse that runs well fresh and he is way overpriced at 20/1 for a race that could well cut up. I'm not totally convinced Cheltenham is his course because he has fallen there a couple of times (including once at the Festival in the Coral Cup) and he ran below par in the Jewson last year. But having said that he was quite busy last season and might have been feeling the effects. He has excellent place claims at least and as well as a single I have put him in an each way double with Kid Cassidy in the Grand Annual. This enigmatic character's mark has been protected for a race his trainer loves to win named as it is after his father.

The big news today was Paddy Power unveiling of their offer on the opening day. They will return stakes on all losers if Hurricane Fly wins the Champion Hurdle. Now to be honest I don't really fear the horse all that much but it would be silly not to take advantage and I have greened up my Grandouet position on Betfair and backed him with PP at 6/1. There remains a £10 single I had on the horse at 12/1 earlier in the season, also at Paddy Power.

Finally I've taken 12/1 about First Lieutenant for the Gold Cup. I'm mad keen on him for the Ryanair but the trainer does prefer the blue ribband for the horse and it makes sense to hedge my bets. I'd worry about one or two seeing the trip out better but if he settles better than he did in last year's RSA (recent runs suggests he will) and doesn't go off too fast like he did in the Hennessy he has more chance of getting the trip. It goes without saying that he loves Cheltenham and should have better ground on the last day of the meeting than he's been faced with thus far this season.


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Supreme:
My Tent or Yours £50w @ 6/1
Jezki £20w @ 56/10

Arkle:
Arvika Ligeonniere £30w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:
Grandouet £10w @ 12/1
"Greened up" for £47.19 (Backed @ 9.38, laid @ 8.43)
Grandouet £50w @ 6/1 (NRNB) Stake returned if Hurricane Fly wins race

Cross Country:
Bostons Angel £10w @ 12/1
Shalimar Fromentro £5w @ 45/1

RSA:
Boston Bob £35w @ 97/10
Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Bumper:
Pure Science £15w @ 16/1

Jewson:
Oscar's Well £35w @ 145/10 and £20w @ 10/1 (NRFB)
Arvika Ligeonniere £25w @ 10/1 (NRFB)

Ryanair:
First Lieutenant £25w @ 10/1 (NRFB)
Finian's Rainbow £25w @ 105/10
For Non Stop £10ew @ 20/1 (NRNB)

World Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola £15ew @ 10/1

Albert Bartlett:
Coneygree £130w @ 92/10

Gold Cup:
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 8/1
First Lieutenant £15ew @ 12/1 (NRNB)

Non Runners - Total of £195 lost (Mainly Flemenstar, Fingal Bay, Spirit Son and Clondaw Kaempfer)

Win Doubles:
My Tent or Yours (Sup) and Simonsig (Arkle) £10 @ 20/1 and evs

My Tent or Yours (Sup) and Zarkandar (CH)  £15 @ 2/1 and 6/1

Overturn (ARK) and Grandouet (CH) £10 @ 4/1 and 7/1

Grandouet (CH) and Sir Des Champs (GC) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Grandouet (CH) and Cue Card (RY) £10 @ 7/1 and 6/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 10/1 and 14/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) and Sizing Europe (Ryan) £10 @ 11/4 and 7/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) and First Lieutenant (Ryan) £10 @ 11/4 and 5/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) and Far West (Triumph) £10 @ 11/4 and 6/1

Pure Science (Bumper) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 16/1 and 8/1

Captain Conan (Jewson) and Silviniaco Conti (Gold Cup) £10 @ 6/1 and 9/1

Oscar's Well (Jewson) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 10/1 and 8/1

Coneygree (AB) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 12/1 and 4/1

Each Way Doubles:
Grandouet (CH) and Divers (BGP) £10ew @ 7/1 and 33/1

Bostons Angel (XC) and Module (Jewson) £10ew @ 10/1 and 10/1

For Non Stop (Ryan) and Kid Cassidy (GA) £5ew @ 20/1 and 14/1

£1 Lucky 15:
Simonsig (Arkle) Evs
Boston Bob (RSA) 8/1
Cue Card (Ryanair) 6/1
Coneygree (AB) 8/1


















23/02/2013

Fairyhouse 23rd Feb

I'm typing this between seeing off trains at work on a pretty slow computer so forgive any mistakes. I don't fancy anything at Kepton but it looks an interesting card nevertheless. The only bet of the day is in the Boobyjo Chase at Fairyhouse. This is a pretty good Grand National trial with all seven entrants in the Aintree marathon and I think Quito de la Roque is overpriced at odds in excess of 3/1 on Betfair. He has good pieces of form this season and was impressive last time out over two and a half miles at Thurles. The trip today of 25f will suit him even more and whilst I respect market leader Prince de Beauchene the price differential, he's around 13/8, between himself and the selection is excessive. Simply put Quito de la Roque is a chaser virging on Grade 1 class and is too big given the company he finds himself in today.

Victor Chander and Bet 365 went non runner no bet for the Festival last night and I added old favourite For Non Stop to my portfolio at 20/1 for the Ryanair. He runs well fresh and is better than his last two runs where the ground was way too slow for him. His Old Roan win reads well with runner up Wishfull Thinking winning a couple of times since and he's overpriced in a race that could really cut up

Bobbyjo Chase:
Quito de la Roque £50w @ 34/10 (NR - Void Bet)

Ryanair:
For Non Stop £10ew @ 20/1 (NRNB)

Double:
For Non Stop (Ryan) and Kid Cassidy (Grand Annual) £5ew @ 20/1 and 14/1

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20/02/2013

Cheltenham Thoughts - 20th Feb

Pont Alexandre


Three weeks from today and we'll be right in the thick of the action. I cannot wait, but I approach this year's jamboree with more trepidation than last season. It's a bit strange that really because I'm having a much, much better season this time around but I haven't got a Sprinter Sacre to hang my hat on this time around and with the excessive non runner count I find myself almost in defensive mode. For that reason I am contemplating laying off a big chunk of the bet I have on My Tent or Yours in the opener. He'd be a fair winner if I left him alone but critically I have him in a couple of tidy doubles (added one with Zarkandar on Saturday because of my ever decreasing confidence in Grandouet) that will look awesome if he does win. I'll see how his price goes. The Supreme is one of the toughest races to work out and not helping is the fact that it's one of the few I've never backed the winner in.

Whatever happens this year I'll be changing my ante-post approach from 2013/14. I've been too quick to slam the money down on anything that half impresses simply because they were trading at double figure odds. I'll still be tucking in but with more restraint in future National Hunt seasons.

Cue Card kept the ball rolling on the winners on Saturday but he looks short at around 4/1 for the Ryanair now and I'd be confident First Lieutenant will outstay him up the hill if he is allowed to take his chance. Finian's Rainbow disappointed in the same race and I've virtually written him off now this season. Although saying that he could be interesting in the Melling Chase on fast ground if he misses Cheltenham. I've added Sizing Europe in the Ryanair in a double with Pont Alexandre for the previous day's Neptune. That horse is too short now to back outright but I think he'll have the measure of The New One in a fascinating looking renewal. The Mullins horse is bred to appreciate good ground and his action suggests he'll go on it fine. From a physique point of view no horse has impressed me more than The New One this season but I think he loses ground at his hurdles and he's one for the future over the larger obstacles and it wouldn't surprise me if he turned into another Denman or Sprinter Sacre - immense looking creatures who found one or two too good for them in their Novice Hurdles at the Festival but who then turned into top class chasers. Despite what I said about my ante-post approach changing or at least being modified in future seasons I will be chasing a price about The New One for the RSA in the summer. If Pont Alexandre beats him he could be trading at tidy odds. The Mullins horse has also been included in a double with Far West (Triumph). That horse looks a proper grinding galloper to me and his win on Saturday from River Maigue was achieved despite the conditions of the race, a contest that turned into a proper sprint for home as they entered the straight. The Triumph looks a good race this year with Our Conor very much respected as the likeliest winner after his recent demolition of a couple of good Mullins animals. I'd cover on him if Pont Alexandre wins the Neptune on the Wednesday.

I've added a position on Bostons Angel in the Cross Country on the opening day. He ran well to be second in December over course and distance and I feel he has a decent chance in this if the ground is good. He hasn't had the opportunity to run on decent ground since his win in the 2011 RSA (apart from a handicap hurdle in Oct 2012) and the improvement I expect from running on a decent surface should give him a good chance. At 12/1 he's a very fair price at present.

Lastly, and this isn't Cheltenham related, it was lovely to see Chicago Grey get his head in front again yesterday at Navan in the Red Mills. He's been a favourite of mine for a while and was unlucky to be brought down in last year's National. I have him at a very nice price for this year's renewal and he goes to Aintree with a good chance.

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Supreme:
My Tent or Yours £50w @ 6/1

Champion Hurdle:
Grandouet £55w @ 91/10

Arkle:
Arvika Ligeonniere £30w @ 11/1

Cross Country:
Boston's Angel £10w @ 12/1

RSA:
Boston Bob £35w @ 97/10
Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Bumper:
Pure Science £15w @ 16/1

Jewson:
Oscar's Well £35w @ 145/10 and £20w @ 10/1 (NRFB)
Arvika Ligeonniere £25w @ 10/1 (NRFB)

Ryanair:
First Lieutenant £25w @ 10/1 (NRFB)
Finian's Rainbow £25w @ 105/10

World Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola £15ew @ 10/1

Albert Bartlett:
Coneygree £130w @ 92/10

Gold Cup:
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 8/1

Non Runners - Total of £195 lost (Mainly Flemenstar, Fingal Bay, Spirit Son and Clondaw Kaempfer)

Doubles:
My Tent or Yours (Sup) and Simonsig (Arkle) £10 @ 20/1 and evs

My Tent or Yours (Sup) and Zarkandar (CH)  £15 @ 2/1 and 6/1

Overturn (ARK) and Grandouet (CH) £10 @ 4/1 and 7/1

Grandouet (CH) and Sir Des Champs (GC) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Grandouet (CH) and Cue Card (RY) £10 @ 7/1 and 6/1

Grandouet (CH) and Divers (BGP) £10ew @ 7/1 and 33/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 10/1 and 14/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) and Sizing Europe (Ryan) £10 @ 11/4 and 7/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) and Far West (Triumph) £10 @ 11/4 and 6/1

Pure Science (Bumper) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 16/1 and 8/1

Captain Conan (Jewson) and Silviniaco Conti (Gold Cup) £10 @ 6/1 and 9/1

Oscar's Well (Jewson) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 10/1 and 8/1

Coneygree (AB) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 12/1 and 4/1




15/02/2013

Ascot & Haydock 16th Feb

                                                                    CUE CARD
                                                                   

I've already posted my thoughts on tomorrow's big race at Ascot and the more I think about it the more I fancy Cue Card. I still feel he's underrated and is the only horse thus far to have gotten a shake of the reigns out of Barry Geraghty when he's up top on Sprinter Sacre over fences in last season's Arkle. In hindsight it's pretty amazing he actually finished the King George last time out on heavy ground given how fizzed up he was. He never really settled and like Flemenstar last week he's a horse who is better when being allowed to dictate. I expect him to win this and cement his place in the Ryanair. He's a good back to lay proposition as well and I've placed a request for part of my stake. Half my £80 stake has been placed at Hills via the Racing Post App which means I get it back if my selection is second. A good concession.

At Haydock we have the Grand National Trial which gave us the winner of the big race last year in runner-up Neptune Collonges. I'd like to think that may happen again as I've taken 20/1 about Teaforthree for the Aintree marathon. He stays all day and is a fantastic, economic jumper of a fence. He's perfect for the race imo and whilst I expect an encouraging run tomorrow I prefer Giles Cross for the Trial. This is much more his target than Teaforthrees. He won the race last year (off only six pounds less) and the Grand National isn't his bag. He didn't take that well to the test last year and of course it's nearly always run on unsuitably fast ground nowadays. Conditions at Haydock are perfect for him, his trainer has assured us that he's fighting fit and 9/1 is very fair. Finally, I have also backed Chicago Grey for Aintree. He was brought down last year before really getting into the race and his excellent young trainer has campaigned him perfect for the race. He'll run off a nice weight in April.
 


Ascot Chase:
Cue Card £80w @ 11/4 (IR lay request placed @ 6/4 for £20) (won)

Grand National Trial:
Giles Cross £35w @ £15pl @ 9/1 (pulled up)

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Grand National
Teaforthree £15w @ 20/1
Chicago Grey £10w @ 47/1




14/02/2013

Ascot Chase

A small but select field lines up for Saturday's Ascot Chase and I've taken 11/4 about Cue Card who I think will be most suited to the conditions on the day. It's a small field like the one he ran away from at Exeter at the start of the season and I think he'll be hard to peg back if allowed to stride out and make the pace. He was too keen in the King George when restrained and had nothing left at the business end of the race. He's also the only horse who has ever really given Sprinter Sacre half a race in last season's Arkle and whilst I respect Finian's Rainbow and Captain Chris I think the selection has a bit too much class for them both on the likely soft ground over this trip. The former is a good ground animal who was poor in his only race of the season so far on heavy and the latter is a battler who for me stayed on past beaten animals when getting second in a pulsating King George. I've gone in a bit early on this race just in case Cue Card is really well backed.

Ascot Chase:
Cue Card £40w @ 11/4

11/02/2013

Super Saturday Aftermath

AP and My Tent or Yours



I really enjoyed all the action at the weekend and not just because a couple of my ante-post fancies for the Festival enhanced their claims. That does help though.

My Tent or Yours has set the twitter and forum world ablaze (at least the horsey bits) with his scintillating performance in the Betfair Hurdle and the debate now seems to be whether or not connections should supplement the animal for the Champion Hurdle. Now, as someone who took a bit of 12 and 10/1 about him for the Supreme after being very taken with him at Huntingdon I'm naturally a bit biased but I believe the Novice events are there for a very good reason and if it became a trend for classy young types to miss these races they would become devalued. The Festival is more about the Champion Hurdle and the Gold Cup. Last season it was the right thing for Sprinter Sacre to run in the Arkle. This year it's correct and proper for My Tent or Yours to run in and win the opener. I topped up on my position at 3.8 on the machine yesterday evening and that will be it now, I don't need to go mad as I also have him in a double.

Elsewhere the Gold Cup picture looks slightly clearer with Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco Conti both cementing their claims . The latter is a top class fencer but I'm wary of him acting on an undulating track. The former finally put in a good round of jumping in winning the Irish Hennessy from a below par Flemenstar. I think he will improve again for a return to Cheltenham and decent ground but he's short enough in the betting now and despite having a bit of 8/1 about him I'm not totally convinced he's all that. I'm a huge fan of  Flemenstar and he is a classier beast than SDC but restrained is not the way to run him imo. He's a magnificent jumper of a fence and should be allowed to use that to his advantage by being given his head. On the positive side I managed to lay off part of my Gold Cup stake during Saturday's race.

12/2 EDIT: Not long after posting this entry Peter Casey confirmed that Flemenstar will miss the Festival due to picking up a lung infection. Shame. There also doubts surrounding Grandouet's participation in the Champion Hurdle as he seems to have picked up some sort of leg injury. Not good news.

I was also happy with Boston Bob's narrow win in the PJ Moriarty. At one point he looked tapped for toe before running on and it's clear this run will bring him on and the uphill finish at Cheltenhama and the extra three furlongs will really suit. He's a strong contender for the RSA.

My ante-post list is looking very hit and miss at the moment and the non runner count is eye watering. I'll have to think about going a little less mad next season I think.


Supreme:
My Tent or Yours £50w @ 6/1

Champion Hurdle:
Grandouet £55w @ 91/10

Arkle:
Arvika Ligeonniere £25w @ 11/1

RSA:
Boston Bob £35w @ 97/10
Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Bumper:
Pure Science £15w @ 16/1

Jewson:
Oscar's Well £30w @ 14/1 and £20w @ 10/1 (NRFB)
Arvika Ligeonniere £25w @ 10/1 (NRFB)

Ryanair:
First Lieutenant £25w @ 10/1 (NRFB)
Finian's Rainbow £25w @ 105/10

World Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola £15ew @ 10/1

Albert Bartlett:
Coneygree £130w @ 92/10

Gold Cup:
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 8/1

Non Runners - Total of £195 lost (Mainly Flemenstar, Fingal Bay, Spirit Son and Clondaw Kaempfer)

Doubles:
My Tent or Yours (Sup) and Simonsig (Arkle) £10 @ 20/1 and evs

Overturn (ARK) and Grandouet (CH) £10 @ 4/1 and 7/1

Grandouet (CH) and Sir Des Champs (GC) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Grandouet (CH) and Cue Card (RY) £10 @ 7/1 and 6/1

Grandouet (CH) and Divers (BGP) £10ew @ 7/1 and 33/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 10/1 and 14/1

Pure Science (Bumper) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 16/1 and 8/1

Captain Conan (Jewson) and Silviniaco Conti (Gold Cup) £10 @ 6/1 and 9/1

Oscar's Well (Jewson) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 10/1 and 8/1

Coneygree (AB) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 12/1 and 4/1





















08/02/2013

Super Saturday - 9th Feb

Two exciting cards on both sides of the Irish Sea tomorrow with Cheltenham Festival clues aplenty.

At Leopardstown Flemenstar takes on Sir Des Champs again and I expect his class to tell this time. He was restrained excessively in the Lexus where his jumping ability wasn't taken advantage of and I'd like to see him allowed to just get on with it tomorrow. That said I have no confidence in his staying the Gold Cup trip and would like to see him take on Sprinter Sacre in March.
Boston Bob runs in the PJ Moriarty Novice Chase and I have to hope he wins well and confirms himself a proper challenger to Dynaste in the RSA. Bob was workmanlike in winning his first chase outing a while back but the ground was desperate that day and he did jump well in the main. The RSA looks weak this season and a good run tomorrow would make him 7/2 ish. Fingers crossed.

At Newbury the Denman and Game Spirit Chases have cut up with Long Run and Simonsig being pulled out of them but the Betfair Hurdle is the best contest on the card and the one that contains my sole bet of the day. Normally I'd be against a 9/2 shot in a race with so many runners but My Tent or Yours made such an impression last time out at Huntingdon with his appearance, jumping and just the general presence he has about him that he immediately went into the notebook and although the Supreme Novices isn't one of my favourites at the Festival I took a price about him for it after this performance. As for this tomorrow, I think there are plenty of humdrum animals in opposition with not a lot to recommend them - Cotton Mill surely needs further and better ground and has yet to run this campaign - Pearl Swan doesn't seem to have a great deal of form and is priced up on trainer identity - Cause of Causes has gone up 10lbs since his win in the Ladbroke - the Greatwood (now Racing Post Hurdle) looked sub standard so put a line though all the contenders who ran in that - Swing Bowler's form is all at gaff racks. You get the picture. If the selection gets round he wins or goes close.

Lastly, the Bumper that closes the card is a cracker and I'm hoping for a nice run from Pure Science who looked an animal of some promise when winning his first ever contest a few weeks ago at Warwick. He's well bred and ran slightly green in that race so I expect a fair bit of improvement. I'm pleased the trainer is getting another run into him before the Champion Bumper at the Festival for which he is backable at 16/1 or thereabouts.

Betfair Hurdle:
My Tent or Yours £25ew @ 9/2 (won)

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05/02/2013

Festival:Graded Hurdles

Darlan (rip)



Much as I'm looking forward to the Festival watching Darlan's most unfortunate demise yesterday at Doncaster has taken the wind out of my sails a bit. He was such a grand looking animal and he could well have been going right to the top. Very sad and my thoughts are with his connections, particularly his jockey who has lost a number of top class horses in his career.

I've been a fan of Grandouet for a while now but lost no money on him last season when he missed the Festival as I was convinced Hurricane Fly was bombproof and pretty much a shoo in to defend his crown. That never happened of course and I think Henderson and Nicholls know how to get the horse beat now. A relentless gallop kind of takes the sting out of him and I believe we'll see a really fast run race five weeks from today. That being the case 2/1 about Hurricane Fly is very skinny and I'm very happy with my position on Grandouet who has a wicked turn of foot and ran a stormer in the International at Cheltenham in December. Before that race there were some people who thought he was a bit of a bridle ponce who was soft in a finish but his form with Overturn from the previous year's International was the best on offer over the smaller obstacles at the trip last season and unusually for a horse from his stable he's an underrated individual. After a year off on unsuitably deep ground he wasn't beaten far by Zarkandar who was race fit and getting weight. He found plenty up the hill and looked tough enough to me. I first backed Grandouet for this in November at 12s and have been topping up on occasion (including having a number of doubles involving the horse) ever since. He's a confident selection with the demise of his stable mate and the unfortunate retirement of another potential star in Spirit Son, who was my first choice for the race. I think Nicky deserves a change of fortune with his hurdlers.

I've been following the Nick Williams stable since the 2008/09 season and in the main it's been a profitable decision and I've been on a few of his better winners since the start of that season but the Festival has been a wash out. I still shudder at the memory of Maljimar's mugging on the line in what was the William Hill Trophy, a handicap on the opening day of the meeting. In Reve de Sivola though Nick has probably his best chance of a Festival winner since Diamond Harry was beaten by Mikael d'Haguenet and Karabak also in 2009. The absence of Big Buck's means the World Hurdle is wide open and Reve looks tailor made for the race. He has excellent form at Cheltenham and has won twice this season in good graded events. Naturally I'm a bit biased with this horse as I have backed him numerous times but he does look in good order and really a return to form by Peddlers Cross would be the only thing that would unduly worry me now. Incidentally the reason I decided to follow a stable was because of a hint in the Mark Coton book called 100 Hints for Better Betting. It's a good read with plenty of sound advice and I've included a link at the bottom of this post.

Champion Hurdle:
Grandouet £45w @ 9/1
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1 (NR)

World Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola £15ew @ 10/1

Doubles:
Grandouet (CH) and Sir Des Champs (GC) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Darlan (CH) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 4/1 and 8/1 (NR)

Overturn (ARK) and Grandouet (CH) £10 @ 4/1 and 7/1

Grandouet (CH) and Cue Card (RY) £10 @ 7/1 and 6/1

Grandouet (CH) and Divers (BGP) £10ew @ 7/1 and 33/1


















http://www.amazon.co.uk/Hints-Better-Betting-Mark-Coton/dp/1871093678

02/02/2013

Ffos Las - 2nd Feb

The Welsh Champion Hurdle has been changed to a limited handicap this season and it's resulted in a decent looking race. I like Balder Succes who has talent and looks nicely treated off 145. He lost a shoe last time out after blundering early on and I do have concerns about the horse in any race with a biggish field (he fell in the Triumph and was unseated in the Punchestown equivalent last spring) but he's a bigger price than he should be because of his last run and that makes him a bet, albeit a minimum one.

Welsh Champion Hurdle:
Balder Succes £25w @ 11/1 (lost)


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