Jumps Season - Postscript

I've had better seasons from a punting point of view but I don't think I've ever enjoyed a Jumps season as much the one that's just finished today. We had some imperious performances, two or free fantastic Festivals and some exciting stars of the future revealing themselves. The highlight for me was my trip to Sandown on December 8th for the Tingle Creek. Sprinter Sacre was magnificent that day and I was really taken with the racecourse. One of the two or three best I've visited. I look forward to returning one day.

Betting wise I'd give it a B- It started well but I had way too many ante-post bets on the Cheltenham Festival, and lots of those never made the meeting. The lack of a proper good winner after Al Ferof's win in the Paddy Power ultimately cost me but lessons were learnt and I'll be more circumspect next season.

The flat kicks off for me next week with the Guineas and I'll be in attendance on Saturday. My thoughts on both races will be posted later in the week.

Ante-Post:


2000 Guineas:
Cristoforo Colombo £50w @ 16/1

1000 Guineas
Newfangled (NR) £15
What a Name £40w @ 10/1

--
King George:
Al Ferof £10w @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £15w @ 10/1

Punchestown - Day 3

A poor couple of days for me with Boston Bob falling just when getting into contention on Tuesday and Captain Chris just not staying the trip on the soft ground today. To be honest I'd ideally put this jumps season to bed now but I can't let Reve De Sivola go unbacked tomorrow at 7/1 now he has underfoot conditions to his liking. The ground was too lively for him at Cheltenham yet he still ran creditably enough in finishing fourth. There probably isn't a horse in training I have backed more than this fella and I would love to see him win another Grade 1. This race is being billed as a two horse affair between Quevega and Solwhit but the former beat absolutely bugger all in the Mares Hurdle and the latter isn't that far ahead of my selection on form and the fact that he has run at Aintree as well as Cheltenham is far from a positive. In summary Reve De Sivola is not a 7/1 poke for this with the ground soft as it is.

EDIT 25/4:
Hills and Ladbrokes have enhanced Quevega's price this morning so I have put her in a little double with Arvika Legionnaire in the novice chase. That horse will appreciate going right handed and the soft underfoot conditions.

Word Series Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola £60w @ 7/1 (lost)

Quevega/Arvika Legionnaire (Ryanair Novice Chase) £20 double @ 2/1 and 5/1 (won) 

(+464.71)

Punchestown Festival - Days One and Two

                                                               CAPTAIN CHRIS

Today's card at the Irish track is an absolute cracker. I'm delighted to see Sprinter Sacre going over and the Novice Hurdle features another battle between Jezki and Champagne Fever. I'd like to see the former win naturally as I've backed him for the Champion Hurdle next season but it will be a tough ask.

Boston Bob's fall at the last in the RSA when looking the likely winner was the worst moment of the Cheltenham Festival for me and he makes some appeal at 4/1 for the Champion Novice Chase later today. Whether or not he would have held on is a moot point as his burst of speed when Paul Townend went for him as they rounded the final turn illustrated the class this horse does possess. Of all the horses in today's race he's the only one you can realistically think might make his mark in a Gold Cup next year. If he'd been held onto longer in that RSA and hadn't fallen he'd have won the race quite comfortably. The way he travelled and jumped throughout that race marked some improvement on his previous starts and as this is only his fourth run of the campaign he should still have plenty in the tank. His stable companion Back in Focus rates a danger but he's back in trip after winning the four miler at the Festival and his previous form over this trip doesn't excite me at all. Of the others Dedigout is respected as is Harry Topper but I expect Boston Bob to win if he stays on his feet and that surely isn't a 4/1 shot.

I've already posted my thoughts on Captain Chris and how much I like him for the big race on Wednesday's card. I'm not overjoyed the ground will be on the soft side but then again it inconveniences two of his main opponents Sir Des Champ and First Lieutenant more than it does him. Underfoot conditions were desperate when Captain Chris was narrowly beaten by Long Run in the King George and I think this track gives the selection a good shot at reversing places. Simply put Kempton is a speed track and Captain Chris was struggling from some way out that day outpaced as he was and had too use all his energy and stamina to get back in touch. Once he'd joined Long Run at the last he simply didn't have anything left. Next time out but for a bad mistake at the second last he'd have given Cue Card a fright in the Ascot Chase and that form has been franked in no uncertain terms since then by the winner. On right handed tracks Captain Chris is a high class individual and is a tasty each way price for this contest. I took 10s when the market opened and have topped up since. The horse won at this meeting as a novice after winning the Arkle. Another positive.

Champion Novice Chase:

Boston Bob £65w @ 4/1 (fell)

Punchestown Gold Cup:

Captain Chris £40ew @ 9/1 (lost)

(+280.71)

Cheltenham - 17th April

Nice little card at Prestbury Park tomorrow and the Graded Handicap at 3.55 has a nice punting shape to it. Menorah and Hunt Ball head the weights off marks of 169 and 162 respectively and not only look poorly handicapped but poorly priced as well at 10/3 and 7/2. Hunt Ball won his last race off 155 but that was a really average race at Taunton and naturally this will be far harder, even if he was running off the same handicap mark. As for Menorah, how a horse who has yet to run that well on an undulating track over fences and who had a hard race at Aintree not that long ago is supposed to give a stone to the likes of Champion Court I do not know. That horse ran well for a long way in the Ryanair at the Festival but paid the price for trying to keep tabs on Cue Card and is better than the bare result. He loves the track and decent ground and looks well in off 155. He is a decent bet at 5/2. I also think Ghizao has claims off the same mark. He too ran well in the Ryanair until clouting the fourth last and he has bits of form that suggest 9/1 underestimates his chance. Only beaten 7lbs by Cue Card off level weights in the Ascot Chase he retains a certain level of ability and I think he'll give the selection most to do. Both are backable prices.

Silver Trophy Handicap Chase:
Champion Court £50w @ 5/2 (won)
Ghizao £35w @ 9/1 (pu)

(+425.71)



--
Ante-Post:

Punchestown Gold Cup:
Captain Chris £40ew @ 9/1

2000 Guineas:
Cristoforo Colombo £30w @ 19/1

1000 Guineas
Newfangled (NR) £15
What a Name £30w @ 117/10

--
King George:
Al Ferof £10w @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £15w @ 10/1

Ante-Post Update

I was gonna make this entry a Jumps season summing up because I rarely get involved at Punchestown or have a bet in the Whitbread but Ladbrokes released prices for the Gold Cup at the aforementioned track today and Captain Chris is a big looking 10/1 for the race. His form with Cue Card and his cracking run in the King George suggest he's up to going close in this and his run in the Gold Cup can safely be ignored. He jumped right throughout at Cheltenham and just ran out of gas towards the end of the race. Aside from his Arkle win when stamina was never an issue his best runs have all come on right handed tracks and I think he actually has claims of reversing Kempton form with Long Run (who is 5/2 for this) given the likely better ground. Sir Des Champs heads the market and is massively respected and his presence makes my wager an each way one. First Lieutenant is also entered but there must be doubts about him running given his hard races at both Cheltenham and Aintree.

Elsewhere my 1000 Guineas fancy What a Name ran well enough in the Prix Imprudence last Thursday at Maisons-Laffite and I have topped up. I would think the French haven't had quite as cold a spring as we have and this coupled with her pipe opener have bolstered confidence. I expect her to be more ready for the Guineas on 5th May than her Newmarket rivals.

Punchestown Gold Cup:
Captain Chris £20ew @ 10/1


2000 Guineas:
Cristoforo Colombo £25w @ 21/1

1000 Guineas
Newfangled (NR) £15
What a Name £30w @ 117/10

--
King George:
Al Ferof £10w @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £15w @ 10/1

Aintree - Saturday

So, the race that I'm sure most serious punters, including myself, first had a bet in. I still love the spectacle but look forward to other big days and big races more now. My usually policy with the Aintree marathon is to throw half a dozen or so darts at it and hope to hit the bullseye. This season I have:

Teaforthree - Excellent jumper who I thought would make a National horse when he won the 4 miler at the Festival. He'll enjoy the ground.
Chicago Grey - Backed him last year when he was brought down and though he's a slightly sketchy jumper of a fence he was a massive price when the weights came out and I had to tuck in. He's well handicapped.
Imperial Commander - Looks really well in at the weights and although he's not the force of old his run in the Argento at Cheltenham was encouraging and he's a big, gross chaser who will carry a big weight. Backed him NRNB a bit ago, not sure I'd be going in at less than 20/1 now.
Cappa Bleu - Fourth last year and his excellent trainer has managed to get him two pounds lower this time around. Must have a good chance.
Roberto Goldback - Impressive at Ascot in November he's come down the weights again after a sharp rise following that win. Didn't have the pace to go with younger rivals at Kempton on good ground in the RP Chase. Overpriced at 33/1
Join Together - Backed this horse when he was second in the Becher here in November. Not sure he has the class to win but he took to the fences really well that day and has place claims.

Grand National:
Teaforthree £20w @ 20/1 (lost)
Chicago Grey £10w @ 47/1 (pu)
Imperial Commander £10ew @ 28/1 (pu)
Cappa Bleu £20w @ 14/1 (lost)
Roberto Goldback £7.50ew @ 33/1 (ur)
Join Together £15 to place @ 56/10 (lost)
Prince De Beauchene (NR) £10

(+335.71)

Aintree - Friday

Not long back from the course and a thoroughly enjoyable day it was to. A good winner, some find food (I would recommend The Café Bar Ormskirk to anyone who likes a classy but affordable establishment) and a bit of a tan to boot even though it was blowing a gale for most of the day.

Friday's card features the race of the year between Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card and Flemenstar and My Tent or Yours in the opener but my one bet of the day is in the Handicap Hurdle at 4.50. I backed Barbatos in the Coral Cup on the Wednesday of the Festival as the first part of an each way double but he was given an excessively tender ride by Paddy Brennan in that race, always towards the rear in that race he ran on quite well up the hill but never looked likely to make the frame. I was a bit annoyed at the time and more so when part number two, For Non Stop, came third at 20/1 in the Ryanair. Barbatos is actually down a pound since then and at 10/1 tomorrow in a twenty two runner contest paying four places I make him a pretty solid each way bet. It's competitive of course but the horse is undoubtedly well handicapped and will appreciate some decent ground.

Daily Mirror Punters Club Handicap Hurdle:
Barbatos £30ew @ 10/1 (lost)

(+445.71)

Aintree - Thursday

I've been visiting Aintree for over twenty years and tomorrow and Friday's cards are just about the best I've seen at the track. It really isn't a meeting that's just about the one race nowadays and that can only be a good thing. I'm working on Friday so miss out on the race of the season but I'm on course tomorrow and have two or three bets lined up.

In the Betfair Bowl the price differential between the main two, Silviniaco Conti and First Lieutenant, is excessive. I'd go 13/8..9/4 rather than 10/11..7/2. The latter is turning into a bit (a lot) of a bridesmaid. He seems to find stayers outstaying him over three miles+ and speedballs having too many gears for him over shorter. However, three miles on Aintree's flat track with decent ground the order of the day could really be his optimum conditions and on lines of form through Bob's Worth and Long Run I don't think there is a whole lot between the two market leaders. The others look outclassed.

As good as The New One looked in the Neptune things did go his way at Cheltenham. Pont Alexandre only set a modest pace and the Twiston-Davies animal out speeded horses who are essentially staying chasers in the making to win impressively. He's a fine prospect over timber and fences but tomorrow's Aintree Hurdle is a whole new ball game. I'm completely against the horse at a ridiculously cramped 3/1 and am taking him on with Grandouet and Thousand Stars. The former has never tackled two and a half miles before but his win in the International at Cheltenham in late 2011 over 17f was achieved against the high class Overturn who set a good pace that day. The extra three furlongs this race entails should be well within range, especially on an easier track. Grandouet is also a fresh horse who his trainer admitted in early March he would have liked more time with to get right. That freshness also applies to Thousand Stars who has been runner up twice in this but crucially this time around bypassed Cheltenham for this objective. Simply put he's a little under the radar and is overpriced at 10/1. The freshness angle cannot be overstated in this race. Countrywide Flame has been on the go since the summer and The New One has had three tough races since the turn of the year. My two selections both look overpriced and I see them both placing.

Betfair Bowl:
First Lieutenant £40w @ 39/10 (won)

Aintree Hurdle:
Grandouet £20ew and £20w @ 9/2 (lost)
Thousand Stars £10ew @ 11/1 (3rd)

First Lieutenant (won) & Thousand Stars (3rd) £15ew double @ 7/2 and 10/1

(+505.71)

£1 Aintree Lucky 15:
Rolling Star 5/2
Silviniaco Conti Evs
Oscar Whisky 13/2
Teaforthree 16/1