31/05/2013

Epsom - 1st June

                                           OCOVANGO exercising at Epsom this week

I have to admit to a certain amount of annoyance this evening. The Oaks has always been a bad race for me and yet I still ended up piling into it despite not fancying anything that strongly. A combination of a week off coupled with a Group 1 race and I couldn't resist a wager. Silly.

But tomorrow is another day and I do have quite strong opinions about the Derby. Dawn Approach is a very short price for the race despite not being bred to stay a mile and a half. In my eyes the only way he wins the race is if his class advantage is sufficient to handle the dip in form the distance will inevitably result in. At the time the 2000 Guineas looked a good renewal and I thought he might be able to get away with even a half stone drop in his rating but the Irish Guineas changed that with the third at Newmarket outclassed and now unless the other horses in the race tomorrow are as bad as the ones Camelot faced last year I can't see him winning. He's certainly an horrific price.

I've been in a fantastic position in this year's race ever since Sky Lantern won the 1000 Guineas having put that horse and Ocovango in an each way double on the morning of the first fillies classic. In fact even if you add in the small amount of money I've lost on Magician to my total stake on the French horse I have approximately 37/1 on Fabre's colt. Couple that to the shortness of the favourite and I've felt for a while that I would play again on the race. Earlier in the week I added Battle of Marengo when he drifted due to the apparent likelihood of Magician running and this evening I have added Mars in an each way double with a horse I like for Royal Ascot.

Ocovango will need to step up on his three runs/wins thus far in his career and at this stage he doesn't look as good as Pour Moi who won the same contests in the early part of his 3yo career more impressively but he's a different kind of animal being more a galloper than a turn of foot merchant. Bavodino, the horse in behind Ocovango in the Prix Greffulhe, goes to Chantilly on Sunday with decent claims in the Prix du Jockey-Club and I have in fact taken fancy prices about him for the Arc. I think it's decent enough form and with Monsun as his sire I expect a good deal of improvement on the step up to a mile and a half. Would I back him at 8/1 if I was going to this race without an ante-post bet? I'm not sure to be honest and as the race stands right now Battle of Marengo and Mars offer the best value. The former has done nothing wrong, has won all the right trials for Ballydoyle and I expect considerable improvement when he faces a bigger field and a stronger pace. I wasn't interested at 9/2 this time last week but he has drifted quite a bit on Betfair during the build up and I've traded a few times on him and have ended up with a nice bet at over 7/1. Mars ran well enough in the Guineas and will appreciate the step up in trip. At 14/1 I think he has strong place claims and I do prefer him to the German horse, Ruler of the World and Libertarian, who are all shorter.

Derby:
Ocovango £25w @ 12/1(lost)
Sky Lantern (1000 Guineas)(won) and Ocovango £15ew double @ 9/1 and 12/1
Battle of Marengo £40w @ 76/10 (lost)
Magician (NR) £10
Mars (lost) and Reckless Abandon (King's Stand) £10ew double @ 14/1 and 10/1

(-127)















30/05/2013

Epsom - 31st May

I posted my thoughts on the Oaks earlier in the week and nothing has changed since apart from my usual topping up policy. It is actually a horrible race for me, Balanchine is the only winner I've backed, so confidence isn't too high. Ultimately the filly I've bet on has only had two runs so a large slice of the bet is in the expectation of her realising the undoubted scope she possesses. It looks a good race but I do somewhat have a feeling of getting it out of the way before the big main event on Saturday.

EDIT:
There is nothing on the TV so I've had a look at the rest of the card and Brae Hill has tempted me in the mile handicap. He has stacks of ability at this level even though he doesn't win very often and you couldn't say he was well handicapped, carrying top weight as he does tomorrow off 97. Epsom however with it's turns and downhill sections is a good course for weight carrying and I think that gives me enough of an angle to justify a bet at 12/1 especially when you consider that a lot of the handicaps he takes part in are the sexy, ultra competitive ones - Hambleton, Ayr Gold Cup, Lincoln to name but three. He does throw in the odd sinker as well but ran well enough last time out at York and I believe he'll outrun his price.

Investec Mile:
Brae Hill £40w and £20pl @ 12/1 (lost)

Oaks:
Liber Nauticus £60w @ 42/10 (lost)

(-2)

28/05/2013

Oaks Thoughts

I'm off work all week so have had plenty of time to study the runners in both classics this weekend. The Oaks looks a deal harder than the Derby and I have a horrible tack record in the race but I've had a go nonetheless.

Secret Gesture heads the market and is respected as she was deeply impressive at Lingfield. She'll stay and with normal progression is entitled to go close in a decent looking renewal but she doesn't strike me as the best 5/2 shot in the world and I'm happy to look elsewhere for a bet.

Moth was third in a 1000 Guineas that looks better after Just the Judge won nicely at the Curragh on Sunday  but even though she should appreciate a step up in trip her pedigree suggests 10f  might be her optimum distance and with fillies in the race who are bred to excel over 12f I can't see her finishing the race as strongly as one or two of the others.

Liber Nauticus interests me most of those at the head of the market. She's a big, strong looking filly from the same family as Leger winner Conduit so first time out over ten furlongs at York in the Musidora was never going to suit her - especially when you add in the small field size and the moderate pace they went. She took a while to get going that day but was on top easily near the end of the race and this extra two furlongs with a better gallop will suit. She has the most scope of any of this field and I took some 5.3 on the machine last night.

Of the others Say is 10/1 and that price is based solely on trainer identity and Talent looks more a Ribblesdale type but the Cheshire Oaks was an interesting trial and the first two from that contest re-oppose here at radically different odds. Banoffee is 9/1 and Gertrude Versed is 40s. I think that's too big a price differential as they went a strong pace at Chester and the latter was always in the vanguard whilst the former was held up at the back and I think the result somewhat flatters her. Gertrude Versed looks a possible non stayer over a furlong further but I'll be keeping an eye on the place market on Betfair. She could drift to a big price in which case I'll step in.

Liber Nauticus £40w @ 43/10



27/05/2013

Derby Thoughts

Saturday's big race is huge for me this year with Sky Lantern's victory in the 1000 Guineas meaning I have a possible four figure payout riding on Ocovango. He has a cracking chance with Dawn Approach looking an obvious non stayer and the only way I see that horse winning is if he's a 133/4 type beast who gains victory despite the trip because of his class advantage - think Hawk Wing in 2002 if High Chaparral hasn't been around. The Irish 2000 Guineas put a dent in that theory with the third horse at Newmarket well beat and even money about Jim Bolger's animal is just an insanely bad price.

The inherent value I have in Ocovango (I stand to win around £2.4k for a total stake of £55 if he wins) means I am eager to throw more money at the race, especially with the place element of that bet looking good also. I took 25/1 about Magician after his Dee Stakes romp for just a fiver and have topped up upon his being left in the race and because of this the perceived wisdom is it compromises Battle of Marengo's chance. The theory being that if that horse was a Derby animal they wouldn't have left Magician in. Ballydoyle's past Derby strategies don't tally with that however. When the race has a strong contender from another yard they tend to go in mob handed. In 2009 they had the favourite in Fame and Glory that would have won an average renewal and yet they felt the need to run Rip Van Winkle. In no way was this a knock against their main runner. I see a similar scenario this year although Sea the Stars was 11/4 and Dawn Approach is a lot shorter. Ironically the former 2000 Guineas winner was a far more certain stayer. This is just a long winded way of saying that Battle of Marengo is now a backable price and I have taken 8 on the machine.

Ocovango £25w @ 12/1
Sky Lantern (1000G) (won) and Ocovango £15ew double @ 9/1 and 12/1
Magician £10w @ 16/1
Battle of Marengo £30w @ 7/1


24/05/2013

Curragh/Epsom

No bets on Saturday's racing despite it's quality. Reckless Abandon tempted me in the Temple Stakes but I just couldn't pull the trigger at 7/2 given his Group 1 penalty and the Irish 2000 Guineas looks priced up about right. The fillies equivalent on Sunday though looks a bit better from a punting point of view. I thought the Newmarket version was really average with some exposed animals like Snow Queen not being beaten very far and I want to be against the fillies who run here after taking in the Newmarket Classic. I'm taking them on with Big Break who looked most impressive in a couple of starts last season, is fantastically well bred and handled by a master trainer to boot. I think 6/1 is very fair.

I'm increasingly using each way doubles these days and with Big Break it's one of those selections where I'm not confident enough to go for a proper bet but the Irish 1000 Guineas doesn't take a huge amount of winning most years and I find it hard to see her out of the places. I'm doubling her with Dunaden in next week's Coronation Cup. He's a most consistent horse who is rarely far away and I think Epsom's long straight will really suit. He was placed in the Prix Ganay over an inadequate 10f and was too far back in the Sheema Classic to make an impression on St Nicholas Abbey but still managed to nick third place near the line. I think the smaller field he'll encounter next Saturday will mean he'll be a lot closer to that horse this time around and I believe he can go close. Again, 5/1 is most fair and it's hard to see him being out of the money.

Irish 1000 Guineas:
Big Break £25w @ 6/1 (4th)

Big Break/Dunaden (Coronation Cup) £20ew double @ 6/1 and 5/1

(+118)

Ante-Post:
Derby:
Ocovango £25w @ 12/1
Sky Lantern (1000G) (won) and Ocovango £15ew double @ 9/1 and 12/1
Magician £5w @ 25/1

Arc:
Gold Ship £15w @ 25/1
Bravodino £3w @ 99/1


17/05/2013

Newbury - 18th May

Tomorrow's big race at Newbury is a fascinating betting heat with the Ballydoyle colt Declaration of War a short priced favourite despite having form a few pounds below at least a couple of his rivals. He's very much a hype horse to my eyes and I've been gagging to take him on for this ever since the prices came out. I was a bit too keen really as Farhh has drifted to 5/1 after I initially took 4s and 9/2. I have topped up at that price though. He has a run of seconds to his name but did come into contact with Frankel a couple of times last year so there is nothing wrong with that. It's arguable what his best trip is as he ran very well in the Eclipse before losing out to the stronger staying Nathaniel who franked the form afterwards of course but his narrow defeat by Moonlight Cloud in the Prix du Moulin was a high class effort and gets my vote as his best run. He is simply overpriced for this event. I think his odds are in part a reflection of his stable not being in great form and that is a worry if I'm honest and is the main reason I've backed Cityscape as well.  That horse at his best is almost as good as my main selection and some of his runs last year, at Meydan in March and in America where he wasn't that far behind the top class Wise Dan (giving weight) were efforts that would win an ordinary renewal of this Group 1 contest. I've taken some 9/2 about him in a double and 4/1 with Paddy Power who return my stake if he's second to the favourite. That does seem a bit of a limp bet but I do worry with Farhh that he'll either win this or finish nowhere. It's just the way Godolphin roll. Of the others I do respect Beauty Parlour but this is a tough ask first time out against battle hardened colts.

Lockinge:
Farhh £70w @ 42/10 (won)
Cityscape and Ocovango (Derby) £20 double @ 9/2 and 8/1 (lost)
Cityscape £20w @ 4/1 (MBS) (lost)

(+183)

16/05/2013

York - 16th May

Really good day's racing today but it looks very hard from a punting point of view.

The Dante looks next to impossible with so many plausible contenders. It's tough to rule any out with confidence but Indian Chief and Trading Leather look too short on what they have achieved but are understandably being well backed given their connections. That pretty much leaves us with the Windhoek/Greatwood/Ghurair line of form and the Godolphin animal Secret Number whose fast finishing third in the UAE Derby impressed me at the time. Of the threesome from Newmarket in April I favour Ghurair partly because he has the best form figures (beating Havana Gold as a 2yo) and partly because he is the biggest priced of the three. Neither he nor Secret Number are proper bets however, just the opening legs of doubles I've placed with a horse later in the card.

That horse is Hunt Cup winner Prince of Johanne in the Hambleton at 3.15. He is now off the same mark he scored on at Royal Ascot and I do think there is a big handicap in him again. It could be today, it could be in defence of his crown next month. Wherever it is he will be a good price, especially on the machine (was 22 before the off in the Hunt Cup and returned 16/1)

Ghurair (Dante) (lost) and Prince of Johanne (Hambleton Handicap) £10 double at Betfair SP
Secret Number (Dante) (lost) and Prince of Johanne £10 double @ Betfair SP

(-71)


15/05/2013

York - May 15th

The Duke of York Stakes today interests me because there are a couple of animals in it with form a fair bit in advance of anything else in the race (with the exception of the favourite) who are double figure prices because they both carry Group 1 penalties. Of the two (Society Rock and Gordon Lord Byron) I favour the latter who improved throughout last year eventually winning the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp on Arc day and then running a cracking race at Sha Tin in December. He's a course and distance winner who is a decent each way bet at 10/1. I took this price last night before retiring to bed after a late shift at work and the firm the wager is with, Bet 365, were paying four places at a quarter the odds. They are now paying the first three home at a fifth the odds but are 12/1. On balance I'm happy to have got in early doors as the place terms are excellent and I do concede that his penalty will make winning tough. Gordon Lord Byron still has scope for progressing further and the rain that has arrived on the Knavesmire will help.

Duke of York:
Gordon Lord Byron £30ew @ 10/1 (4pl) (3rd)

(-51)

14/05/2013

Ante-Post Update

Andre Fabre confirming Ocovango for the Derby yesterday was the best news I've had for ages and it also makes the race a mouth watering prospect even though the rather hyped up Telescope is now a doubt after not being declared for Thursday's Dante. Ocovango is unbeaten and although he only looked workmanlike when winning the Prix Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud in his last race he looked like he had plenty in hand at the finish and despite the fact that he is in the care of a master trainer was still available at 12/1 when his target was confirmed. I don't see why the likes of Battle of Marengo and Ruler of the World are shorter and I have topped up. The trip is a slight worry given the rather speedy female side of his pedigree but his sire Monsun is a big influence for stamina and I'm very hopeful he'll stay. Although I have a downer on most of the Ballydoyle brigade being aimed at this race I was very impressed with Magician in the Dee Stakes and although his pedigree suggests a mile and a quarter will be his optimum trip I couldn't resist a bit of 25/1 even though Chantilly is most likely where he will line up. He's an exciting animal and a showdown with Intello would be some event in the Jockey Club.

I knew Declaration of War would be over bet for the Lockinge this Saturday and I have taken some more 4/1 about Farhh who has the best form in this Group 1 but is third favourite with some bookmakers. It's true this Godolphin creature has slightly better form over 10f but his record over a mile is excellent as well. His narrow defeat behind Moonlight Cloud in the Prix du Moulin last September reads very well in the company he keeps at Newbury and at this stage he's the best value in the race. If DoW continues to shorten I may back Cityscape as well depending on the price.


Lockinge:
Farhh £50w @ 4/1

Derby:
Sky Lantern (1000G) (won) and Ocovango £15ew double @ 9/1 and 12/1
Ocovango £25w @ 12/1
Magician £5w @ 25/1

Arc:
Gold Ship £15w @ 25/1

09/05/2013

Chester - 9th May

Not a good start to the week with Olympiad finishing stone last yesterday. It's never nice when that happens. Ultimately the draw was too big a burden to overcome although a more positive ride would have helped.

The Huxley Stakes interests me today. It's a contest that should be run at a decent pace with Highland Knight and Miblish both confirmed front runners and so the market leader Gabrial looks vulnerable as he has no form over further than a mile. I did say yesterday that Chester is a relatively easy track to stay a trip given the constant turning nature of it but this horse just strikes me as too short. He has a turn of foot but will he be able to deliver it under these different conditions? I kind of doubt it and I think he partly owes his shortish odds to running in the Koukash silks and being trained by Fahey who had the 1/2 in the Chester Cup yesterday.

To take advantage of this angle I'm going to dutch the two horses who are guaranteed to stay this trip. Bonfire won the Dante last season but has been most disappointing since. I think he's overpriced at a little over 4/1 however in this company. The horses who finished second an third at York have both run well early this season and he may have just needed the run in the Earl of Sefton. The Cumani trained Danadana won a really good handicap at the Ebor meeting last August carrying 10st and he looks the type to do well in better company this season.

Stakes are down partly because I've been struggling since Cheltenham and partly because I actually really hate this track.

Huxley Stakes:
Bonfire £40w @ 43/10 (lost)
Danadana £30w @ 48/10 (won)

(-96)

07/05/2013

Chester - 8th May

The Chester Cup looks a nice race to get stuck into this season. Eighteen runners, good each way terms and three or four horses near the top of the market who look underpriced. Countrywide Flame has been on the go since the Autumn and ran poorly at Aintree last time out, he's due a break and is a favourite well worth taking. Simenon, Justification and Tominator are three others who make little appeal. Simenon is top weight and looks far from well handicapped, Justification has no form on decent ground and is priced up on his trainer and Tominator I backed in this last year when he ran a stinker. Don't think he likes the track.
Much more attractively priced than that quartet is the Dermot Weld trained Olympiad. A rather unexposed animal he won a handicap over two miles at the Ebor meeting most comfortably before running no sort of race in the Cesareawich at Newmarket. He's not actually bred to stay two miles and that race at headquarters probably stretched his reserves of stamina too much. Two miles two furlongs is however a lot more gettable at a tight turning track like Chester and in the hands of a master trainer he's a very solid bet at 12/1. The only negative, and it is a big one, is his draw in stall 17. It'll be tough to win from there so he has to be an each way bet.

Chester Cup:
Olympiad £35ew @ 12/1(lost)

(-195)

06/05/2013

Guineas Postscript

Dawn Approach was an impressive winner of Saturday's 2000 Guineas and I see Timeform have given him a rating of 132 for the race. Seems about fair even though a 150/1 was second. That horse probably raced on faster ground though towards the far side of the track. I'm very much looking forward to seeing Bolger's star colt taking on the likes of Camelot and Cirrus Des Aigles later on in the summer but I think he's way too short for the Derby and I'll be taking him on big time. He isn't stoutly bred on his damside and looks a pure miler/10f animal to me. The storm before the race wouldn't have helped my selection Cristoforo Colombo one bit but on a flat track and with fast ground under foot I still expect him to be some sort of force at Group 1 level.

As for the fillies, it was a pretty ordinary looking renewal and although I was pleased to see Sky Lantern win in the pit of my stomach is a feeling of dread because I fear that Ocovango, who I have doubled with the Hannon filly, isn't gonna turn up at Epsom. We'll see. What a Name never really got going but looked stunning in the paddock. Maybe she didn't stay. All told there weren't many pointers to future races in either Classic.

On the ante-post front I've backed Farhh for the Lockinge at Newbury on May 18th at 4/1. He put in some fine efforts last year behind the likes of Frankel and Nathaniel and he should be favourite for this race. Declaration of War heads the list but this will be a big step up in class. 

I'm loathe to bet in the Arc this early in the campaign but I really can't resist 25/1 about high class Japanese colt Gold Ship. He has a similar profile going into his 4yo season as Orfevre (won two rather than all three of their Triple Crown races) but was beaten last time out over two miles at Kyoto. However he was anchored (geddit!!) at the back during the majority of that race and had to use a lot of his energy to get in touch with the pace followers. He also met a little trouble in running down the straight before running on for sixth. I only expect two of Orfevre, Gentildonna and Gold Ship to run in Paris in October so I'm taking a chance but the price justifies it.

Ante-Post:

Lockinge:
Farhh £25w @ 4/1

Derby:
Sky Lantern (1000 Guineas) (won) and Ocovango £15ew double @ 9/1 and 12/1

Arc:
Gold Ship £15w @ 25/1 

--
King George:
Al Ferof £15w @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10


05/05/2013

Newmarket - 5th May

Can't say I was overly impressed with Newmarket yesterday. It's a pokey little place with too few facilities and pretty poor viewing. Certainly not a patch on Sandown which I visited for the first time back in December.

I'm far more confident about the chances of What a Name in the fillies classic than I was Cristoforo Colombo in the 2000. I've always been a sucker for a 1000 candidate that has form with colts. I backed Harayir for her renewal after her good second to Diffident in the Free Handicap and although Moonlight Cloud a couple of years back didn't win the race she ended up being comfortably the best filly in her year. Her shrewd handler is adamant that she'll be better on a decent surface than she showed in the Legardere and the Imprudence and at 10s ante-post I have an excellent position on her that I topped up on a couple of days back at 6s. Nell Gwyn winner Hot Snap heads the market but I think the price differential between her and the filly she beat in that trial Sky Lantern is too big and the Hannon candidate has claims of reversing placing in my opinion. She carried a small penalty in that race and I just think everything will need to go right for Hot Snap to win. She was tapped for toe in the Nell Gwyn at one point before a dream gap opened up for her on the rails. That won't happen today in a contest that can be rough and she is poorly priced at around 11/4. Sky Lantern is probably the best value left in the race now What a Name is like 9/2 and I have put her in a little each way double with the Andre Fabre trained Ocovango who reinforced his Derby claims in France yesterday.

1000 Guineas:
What a Name £60w @ 83/10 (lost)
Newfangled (NR) £15

Sky Lantern (won) and Ocovango (Derby) £15ew double @ 9/1 and 12/1

(-125)

03/05/2013

Newmarket - 4th May

                                                                 NEWMARKET
The Rowley Mile at Newmarket has been one of my better tracks from a punting point of view - indeed three of my biggest wins - Beauchamp Pilot in the 2002 Cambridgeshire, Bronze Angel in the same race last year and Finsceal Beo in the 2007 1000 Guineas were at the Suffolk course so my first visit there tomorrow is one I'm very much looking forward to.

The 2000 Guineas looks an up to standard renewal with Dawn Approach bringing very strong 2yo form to the table and Toronado looking a colt of huge promise in the Craven a couple of weeks back. The former doesn't look as vulnerable as his sire did in his year because he has more speed on the female line of his pedigree but I can foresee him hitting a flat spot as they race into the dip and I think the Hannon colt is the likeliest winner of the contest. My ante-post bet on Cristoforo Colombo looks solid now as he's into 8/1 but I'm not overly confident with two very tough looking opponents standing between him and victory. I backed him in the Middle Park here in October when he was hopelessly outpaced before running on really well in the last furlong and you can certainly make a decent case for him tomorrow. He was only a length behind Dawn Approach in the Coventry at the Royal Meeting and was disadvantaged in that race by his draw. That was also the last time he had the fast ground that really suits him and ultimately the reason I backed him for this first Classic of the season is that his price touched 42 on Betfair in the days after the Middle Park and I felt that was a huge overreaction - more a reflection on the perception that Ballydoyle would unearth stronger contenders than any damning verdict on the horse's ability I think. Anyway, as is my normal strategy I topped up on occasion during the winter and spring and I have a decent position on him. The two at the head of the market are very solid though and are both unbeaten. Lets hope my selection is as good as his sire - he might need to be better.

2000 Guineas:
Cristoforo Colombo £50w @ 16/1 (lost)