Two bets the last couple of days and two seconds. Things haven't gone my way recently and the rain York had overnight on Thursday blunted Shea Shea's speed and may well have cost him the race. Of course that rain would also have gone against The Fugue if it had arrived 24 hours earlier but that's racing.
The course has had a further 15mm overnight and it has played havoc with the Ebor where we now have just 14 runners. Things have gone my way in this race as I'm sitting pretty with a score each way four places on Tiger Cliff at a very juicy looking 12/1. I topped up last night at 7/1 and and this stayer (ran well at the royal meeting over 2m4f) has everything in his favour today. He's won a handicap with a similar amount of runners already this season and being by high class German stallion Tiger Hill I expect him to like the ground he encounters today. I'm overdue a half decent winner.
On the ante-post front I've been told that Orfevre is scheduled to fly to Paris today in preparation for another tilt at the Arc. He's had bleeding issues this year but with the technology they have in Japan and I'm pretty sure a lot of veterinary expertise the fact that he's on his way over is a good sign and I have readjusted my position on the race by backing last year's runner-up and laying off my position on Treve at the same price I had previously backed her at. Ultimately Orfevre is the best horse currently in the race and I want to be with him, especially after what happened last year.
Elsewhere the horse that made my season in 2012, Bronze Angel, hasn't run so far this year but I see he has been entered for a repeat bid in the Cambridgeshire on 28th Sept. He won the race last year a shade comfortably only getting the lead close home and winning by 3/4 of a length and with Mull of Killough and Mukhadram going on this season and winning stakes races it's a renewal that has worked out incredibly well. I cannot resist some 16/1 about him.
Ebor Handicap:
Tiger Cliff £20ew @ 12/1 and £20w @ 7/1 (won)
Betfair Cash-Out Handicap (Goodwood)
Cape Peron £10w (NR)
(+17)
--------------
Cambridgeshire:
Bronze Angel £15w @ 16/1
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Sky Hunter £30w @ 51/1
Flintshire £15w @ 20/1
Orfevre £20w @ 76/10
Gold Ship £15w @ 25/1
Gentildonna £10w @ 33/1
Bravodino £5w @ 76/1
----
King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1
Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10
World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1
24/08/2013
22/08/2013
York - 23rd Aug
I thought Venus de Milo ran an absolute cracker today but was unfortunate to come up against a filly at the peak of her powers who thoroughly enjoyed the conditions on the Knavesmire. The Fugue was the obvious winner a long way out and comparing the way she travelled today with her effort at Sandown when I backed her for the Eclipse is a bit of tough one to swallow. This year, not just on the flat but over Jumps as well, has seen me score a lot of seconds. Not pleased.
The Nunthorpe tomorrow looks a toughie on paper but there is an awful lot of deadwood in the field and I fancy Shea Shea quite strongly. He ran an excellent race last time out over further than is ideal in the July Cup but the key to his chance tomorrow is the track. 5f on a flat course is just what he needs and I expect him to reverse form with Sole Power who narrowly beat him in the King's Stand. At Meydan in March Shea Shea had a couple of decisions over his old rival and York is much more like that track in terms of lack of gradient than it is Ascot. Confident selection.
Nunthorpe Stakes:
Shea Shea £60w @ 4/1 (lost)
(-413)
The Nunthorpe tomorrow looks a toughie on paper but there is an awful lot of deadwood in the field and I fancy Shea Shea quite strongly. He ran an excellent race last time out over further than is ideal in the July Cup but the key to his chance tomorrow is the track. 5f on a flat course is just what he needs and I expect him to reverse form with Sole Power who narrowly beat him in the King's Stand. At Meydan in March Shea Shea had a couple of decisions over his old rival and York is much more like that track in terms of lack of gradient than it is Ascot. Confident selection.
Nunthorpe Stakes:
Shea Shea £60w @ 4/1 (lost)
(-413)
21/08/2013
York - 22nd Aug
A surprise today in the Juddmonte with both market leaders running below form. Admirable consistency from Declaration of War though. gutsy.
I mentioned on Tuesday in my preview for the race that I thought Venus de Milo was overpriced for the Yorkshire Oaks and the 6/1 I somehow managed to snaffle looks excellent value now. I have topped up at 3/1 and expect her to win tomorrow
Yorkshire Oaks:
Venus de Milo £60w @ 375/100 (lost)
(-353)
I mentioned on Tuesday in my preview for the race that I thought Venus de Milo was overpriced for the Yorkshire Oaks and the 6/1 I somehow managed to snaffle looks excellent value now. I have topped up at 3/1 and expect her to win tomorrow
Yorkshire Oaks:
Venus de Milo £60w @ 375/100 (lost)
(-353)
York - 21st Aug
I didn't think I'd be betting today as I thought Al Kazeem and Toronado were priced up about right at around evs/3s respectively when it was confirmed the latter would be taking part in the Juddmonte.
However the money has kept coming in the Hannon inmate and Ladbrokes this morning were going 13/8 the pair. I'm surprised but happy to take that price on Al Kazeem.
The International is a race with a history choc full of middle distance winners and I tend to favour the animals with proven stamina when tackling it. It's also a negative that Toronado is coming here as somewhat of an afterthought. If Olympic Glory hadn't run so well in the Marois it wouldn't be happening, they want to keep both horses apart from now on it seems. You could pick holes in Al Kazeem's form but he has looked a tough, resilient animal each time he's run and surely will beat this field today.
I'm not in love with having my normal stake on shorties so I've split my bet into a single and a couple of doubles with a couple of selections in the Voltigeur, the Group 2 over 12f that precedes the big race. Telescope seems awfully short for this contest for all he still looks a horse of some promise. The same connections couldn't win this with Harbinger a few years back and he's worth taking on. I've gone with Willie the Whipper who finished a good sixth (albeit slightly flattered coming from the back in a strongly run race) in the Prix Du Jockey Club and Secret Number who found all sorts of trouble in running in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood but who looks a creature who will really appreciate the long flat straight he gets here.
International Stakes:
Al Kazeem £40w @ 13/8 (lost)
Voltigeur:
Willie the Whipper/Al Kazeem £10dbl @ 12/1 and 6/4
Secret Number/Al Kazeem £10dbl @ 5/1 and 6/4
(-293)
However the money has kept coming in the Hannon inmate and Ladbrokes this morning were going 13/8 the pair. I'm surprised but happy to take that price on Al Kazeem.
The International is a race with a history choc full of middle distance winners and I tend to favour the animals with proven stamina when tackling it. It's also a negative that Toronado is coming here as somewhat of an afterthought. If Olympic Glory hadn't run so well in the Marois it wouldn't be happening, they want to keep both horses apart from now on it seems. You could pick holes in Al Kazeem's form but he has looked a tough, resilient animal each time he's run and surely will beat this field today.
I'm not in love with having my normal stake on shorties so I've split my bet into a single and a couple of doubles with a couple of selections in the Voltigeur, the Group 2 over 12f that precedes the big race. Telescope seems awfully short for this contest for all he still looks a horse of some promise. The same connections couldn't win this with Harbinger a few years back and he's worth taking on. I've gone with Willie the Whipper who finished a good sixth (albeit slightly flattered coming from the back in a strongly run race) in the Prix Du Jockey Club and Secret Number who found all sorts of trouble in running in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood but who looks a creature who will really appreciate the long flat straight he gets here.
International Stakes:
Al Kazeem £40w @ 13/8 (lost)
Voltigeur:
Willie the Whipper/Al Kazeem £10dbl @ 12/1 and 6/4
Secret Number/Al Kazeem £10dbl @ 5/1 and 6/4
(-293)
20/08/2013
Ebor Meeting
This is probably my favourite meeting of the whole season on the flat. I've attended on lots of occasions and was at the track for Dayjur's Nunthorpe back in 1990. He's still the best horse I've seen in person on the level.
The race of the week is the Juddmonte tomorrow but I'm a tad disappointed in the turnout this year. As admirable as Al Kazeem is I was hoping to oppose him but the field he faces doesn't have a candidate to do this with. Toronado looks a doubtful stayer and Declaration of War surely has been over raced. It's a shame Ruler of the World was taken out as I think this would have been ideal for him.
Elsewhere I've already mentioned the big handicap on Saturday in a previous post and the only other bet I have thus far is Venus de Milo in the Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday. I managed to get 6/1 matched on Betfair last night and I think she's way overpriced. The Fugue heads the market but is vulnerable to a proper stayer in this sort of contest. Last year I backed Shareta against her and whilst my selection this time around hasn't quite the profile of that filly she is open to all sorts of improvement over the trip, especially if she gets a decent gallop. Last time out at Cork and in the Irish Oaks before that only a modest pace was set and she was doing her best work at the end of both contests. Another point is that The Fugue comes into this race in nowhere near the same kind of form as she was in last season. Of the others I have no clue why Wild Coco was shorter than the Ballydoyle filly when I placed my bet and Talent and Riposte are held on form.
My cliff horse, Cape Peron, is entered in a handicap at Goodwood over 7f on Saturday and I've taken some 8/1. He's not the sort of horse to go mental on ante-post because of his ground dependency but this step back in trip will really suit him as he has bags of speed and he'll be much shorter on the day if he takes part.
Yorkshire Oaks:
Venus de Milo £15w @ 6/1
Ebor:
Tiger Cliff £20ew @ 12/1
Betfair Cash-Out Handicap:
Cape Peron £10w @ 8/1
The race of the week is the Juddmonte tomorrow but I'm a tad disappointed in the turnout this year. As admirable as Al Kazeem is I was hoping to oppose him but the field he faces doesn't have a candidate to do this with. Toronado looks a doubtful stayer and Declaration of War surely has been over raced. It's a shame Ruler of the World was taken out as I think this would have been ideal for him.
Elsewhere I've already mentioned the big handicap on Saturday in a previous post and the only other bet I have thus far is Venus de Milo in the Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday. I managed to get 6/1 matched on Betfair last night and I think she's way overpriced. The Fugue heads the market but is vulnerable to a proper stayer in this sort of contest. Last year I backed Shareta against her and whilst my selection this time around hasn't quite the profile of that filly she is open to all sorts of improvement over the trip, especially if she gets a decent gallop. Last time out at Cork and in the Irish Oaks before that only a modest pace was set and she was doing her best work at the end of both contests. Another point is that The Fugue comes into this race in nowhere near the same kind of form as she was in last season. Of the others I have no clue why Wild Coco was shorter than the Ballydoyle filly when I placed my bet and Talent and Riposte are held on form.
My cliff horse, Cape Peron, is entered in a handicap at Goodwood over 7f on Saturday and I've taken some 8/1. He's not the sort of horse to go mental on ante-post because of his ground dependency but this step back in trip will really suit him as he has bags of speed and he'll be much shorter on the day if he takes part.
Yorkshire Oaks:
Venus de Milo £15w @ 6/1
Ebor:
Tiger Cliff £20ew @ 12/1
Betfair Cash-Out Handicap:
Cape Peron £10w @ 8/1
17/08/2013
Newbury - 17th Aug / Ante-Post
I always find these two weeks between the Glorious Goodwood and Ebor Festivals quite boring with hardly any decent racing in store and I have spent the last day or so looking ahead to York next week. The Juddmonte on Wednesday looks a below par renewal and although I want to take Al Kazeem on I'm not seeing anything in the field worth bothering with, not Toronado over the trip anyway. The Ebor itself looks a race with a better punting shape as a lot of the horses towards the front of the market look either likely non stayers or badly handicapped. One who has no stamina concerns is the Lady Cecil trained Tiger Cliff who ran really well in the Ascot Stakes in June where his chance was hindered by being ridden too far off a modest pace. He had winning handicap form before that and looks a horse who will ideally be suited to this thorough test. Said win was in an event at Newmarket in April, a race where they went a good clip and I feel that is important when looking at a possible Ebor winner. Initially I liked the look of Sun Central, an impressive course and distance winner last month. But that was an eight runner race run at a moderate gallop and with a big hike in the weights for the winning margin that day he was easily passed over. I prefer my handicappers to win as near the post as possible with something in hand and if we look at Tiger Cliff again at Ascot, the winner got first run on him but he beat the other horses that day in just such a style. I think 12/1 is very fair.
Today I'm not overly keen on anything although I did look at Dank in the Beverley D this evening in Chicago. Trip and ground will suit her but I wanted a bit bigger than 7/2.
Over here Red Cadeaux is a tad overpriced in the Geoffrey Freer. Yes he has a penalty but Newbury is a course that will suit, as will the trip. I think he'll find one or two too good but he's worth a place bet at 5/2
Geoffrey Freer Stakes:
Red Cadeaux £40pl @ 5/2 (2nd)
(-233)
--
Ebor:
Tiger Cliff £20ew @ 12/1
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Gold Ship £15w @ 25/1
Sky Hunter £30w @ 51/1
Flintshire £15w @ 20/1
Treve £15w @ 10/1
Gentildonna £10w @ 33/1
Bravodino £5w @ 76/1
----
King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1
Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10
World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1
Today I'm not overly keen on anything although I did look at Dank in the Beverley D this evening in Chicago. Trip and ground will suit her but I wanted a bit bigger than 7/2.
Over here Red Cadeaux is a tad overpriced in the Geoffrey Freer. Yes he has a penalty but Newbury is a course that will suit, as will the trip. I think he'll find one or two too good but he's worth a place bet at 5/2
Geoffrey Freer Stakes:
Red Cadeaux £40pl @ 5/2 (2nd)
(-233)
--
Ebor:
Tiger Cliff £20ew @ 12/1
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Gold Ship £15w @ 25/1
Sky Hunter £30w @ 51/1
Flintshire £15w @ 20/1
Treve £15w @ 10/1
Gentildonna £10w @ 33/1
Bravodino £5w @ 76/1
----
King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1
Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10
World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1
11/08/2013
Deauville - 11th August
I was premature taking 2/1 about Intello for the Jacques le Marois earlier in the week as he was and probably still is freely available at 5/2 now. A price that has been taken.
It's a race with a market that has a massive angle in it. One or two of the layers have Intello, Dawn Approach and Moonlight Cloud as co favourites and I think the latter is a crazy short price. I would have her at a minimum of 6/1 as her best form is over shorter and when she has won over a mile it has been round a turn in small fields, she only had to beat three horses in the Prix du Moulin last season.
Dawn Approach is greatly respected naturally and he is fairly priced at 5/2 also but I reckon this will be one race too many for him and I doubt he is up to reproducing his best form, one of the main reasons I am sweet on Intello. Andre Fabre's charge is the freshest horse in the line-up and I think the perception that he's a 10f beast is the main reason he's at such decent odds for the race. Yet with a better draw he'd have won the Poulains easily and be coming here as a dual Classic winner. He has a potent turn of foot and the decent tempo Dawn Approach's pacemaker is bound to set will suit him. I'm very confident.
Prix Jacques Le Marois:
Intello £80w @ 9/4 (lost)
(-328)
It's a race with a market that has a massive angle in it. One or two of the layers have Intello, Dawn Approach and Moonlight Cloud as co favourites and I think the latter is a crazy short price. I would have her at a minimum of 6/1 as her best form is over shorter and when she has won over a mile it has been round a turn in small fields, she only had to beat three horses in the Prix du Moulin last season.
Dawn Approach is greatly respected naturally and he is fairly priced at 5/2 also but I reckon this will be one race too many for him and I doubt he is up to reproducing his best form, one of the main reasons I am sweet on Intello. Andre Fabre's charge is the freshest horse in the line-up and I think the perception that he's a 10f beast is the main reason he's at such decent odds for the race. Yet with a better draw he'd have won the Poulains easily and be coming here as a dual Classic winner. He has a potent turn of foot and the decent tempo Dawn Approach's pacemaker is bound to set will suit him. I'm very confident.
Prix Jacques Le Marois:
Intello £80w @ 9/4 (lost)
(-328)
08/08/2013
Ante-Post
I knew as soon as Dawn Approach was pretty much confirmed for the race that Intello would be worth a punt for the Prix Jacques Le Marois on Sunday. I have snapped up some 2/1 available at Coral.
As much as I respect Dawn Approach this comes awfully soon after the Sussex Stakes and I'd be surprised if he's at his best. Andre Fabre's colt is a fresh horse and looked an absolute machine in the Prix du Jockey Club, a race that has worked out quite well. He looks the likeliest winner of the race to my eyes and I would fear Elusive Kate as much as Dawn Approach and way more than Moonlight Cloud who at 3/1ish is terribly short. A race run over a straight mile with a decent pace stretches her stamina too much.
In summation then, the fact that Fabre sees fit to keep Intello to a mile indicates how much speed the horse possesses as he could easily be a decent sort for the Arc. When finally able to get going from a bad draw in the Poulains and pretty much all the way up the straight at Chantilly he's looked a horse of significant ability and those in opposition on Sunday will find it hard to hold onto him.
Elsewhere I have added Treve to my rather large list of Arc horses. The market is dominated by Flintshire, Novellist and Al Kazeem at the moment and yet it could be argued that Treve has the best form, the Prix de Diane has been franked on a number of occasions.
Prix Jacques le Marois:
Intello £40w @ 2/1
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Gold Ship £15w @ 25/1
Sky Hunter £25w @ 42/1
Flintshire £15w @ 20/1
Treve £15w @ 10/1
Gentildonna £10w @ 33/1
Bravodino £5w @ 76/1
---
King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1
Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10
World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1
As much as I respect Dawn Approach this comes awfully soon after the Sussex Stakes and I'd be surprised if he's at his best. Andre Fabre's colt is a fresh horse and looked an absolute machine in the Prix du Jockey Club, a race that has worked out quite well. He looks the likeliest winner of the race to my eyes and I would fear Elusive Kate as much as Dawn Approach and way more than Moonlight Cloud who at 3/1ish is terribly short. A race run over a straight mile with a decent pace stretches her stamina too much.
In summation then, the fact that Fabre sees fit to keep Intello to a mile indicates how much speed the horse possesses as he could easily be a decent sort for the Arc. When finally able to get going from a bad draw in the Poulains and pretty much all the way up the straight at Chantilly he's looked a horse of significant ability and those in opposition on Sunday will find it hard to hold onto him.
Elsewhere I have added Treve to my rather large list of Arc horses. The market is dominated by Flintshire, Novellist and Al Kazeem at the moment and yet it could be argued that Treve has the best form, the Prix de Diane has been franked on a number of occasions.
Prix Jacques le Marois:
Intello £40w @ 2/1
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Gold Ship £15w @ 25/1
Sky Hunter £25w @ 42/1
Flintshire £15w @ 20/1
Treve £15w @ 10/1
Gentildonna £10w @ 33/1
Bravodino £5w @ 76/1
---
King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1
Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10
World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1
03/08/2013
Goodwood - 3rd August
Cape Peron's defeat was a real kick in the teeth yesterday. Historically when I get 10s about a 5/1 shot I sort of expect those bets to win. I feel after that loss and Nabucco's second as well earlier in the week that I badly need a half decent result from a morale standpoint and I'm most frustrated that Lahaag, a horse I've had on my tracker since his second in a 10f handicap at the Dante meeting, is only 3/1 for a humdrum looking race at Doncaster this afternoon. I can't be bothered at that price.
The Nassau Stakes looks a very competitive renewal and I have to take Sky Lantern on at a short price. She's not guaranteed to stay a mile and a quarter and I like Just the Judge at 7/1. Unlike the favourite she is bred to improve for this step up in trip and she is overpriced. Her trainer said earlier in the week that he was possibly reluctant to run her on really fast ground again but the track has had some rain overnight. Of her three runs in Group 1 company over a mile at Newmarket, Ascot and the Curragh she looked most at home at the latter which is by the stiffest track of the three. She was well beaten in the Coronation but relative to Sky Lantern she was poorly positioned close to a fast pace and the Hannon filly had the race run to suit that day. Of the others I fear Hot Snap but can't have Integral who looks ridiculously short on form. I do think Just Pretending is overpriced. She ran really well in the Irish Oaks and is most consistent but her pedigree suggests this trip may be her optimum. I don't think she quite has the class to win this but I managed to get 4/1 for a place matched on Betfair yesterday evening
Nassau Stakes:
Just the Judge £25ew @ 7/1 (lost)
Just Pretending £20pl @ 4/1 (lost)
(-248)
The Nassau Stakes looks a very competitive renewal and I have to take Sky Lantern on at a short price. She's not guaranteed to stay a mile and a quarter and I like Just the Judge at 7/1. Unlike the favourite she is bred to improve for this step up in trip and she is overpriced. Her trainer said earlier in the week that he was possibly reluctant to run her on really fast ground again but the track has had some rain overnight. Of her three runs in Group 1 company over a mile at Newmarket, Ascot and the Curragh she looked most at home at the latter which is by the stiffest track of the three. She was well beaten in the Coronation but relative to Sky Lantern she was poorly positioned close to a fast pace and the Hannon filly had the race run to suit that day. Of the others I fear Hot Snap but can't have Integral who looks ridiculously short on form. I do think Just Pretending is overpriced. She ran really well in the Irish Oaks and is most consistent but her pedigree suggests this trip may be her optimum. I don't think she quite has the class to win this but I managed to get 4/1 for a place matched on Betfair yesterday evening
Nassau Stakes:
Just the Judge £25ew @ 7/1 (lost)
Just Pretending £20pl @ 4/1 (lost)
(-248)
01/08/2013
Goodwood - 2nd August
The drying conditions have me worried that Henry Candy may pull Cape Peron out of the Betfred Mile tomorrow. That said surely it won't ride as fast as it did when he pulled the horse out of a race at Ascot on Saturday.
If he stands his ground he has a leading chance as he looked a Group horse in the making when winning at Doncaster in May. His run on firmer conditions at the Royal Meeting in the Britannia was satisfactory although he was given an awful lot to do that day and used up his turn of foot just getting into contention.
I'm confident this horse has a big handicap in him and if he misses tomorrow he is bred to stay further for a mile so I'll have him in mind for the Cambridgeshire late next month.
This particular handicap is one of the most draw important contests of the season and I have in previous year's place laid a shortie who was badly drawn (Ransom Note). This evening I've added Stirring Ballad at 8/1. She is drawn 4, won at this fixture last year and plainly enjoys a strong pace which she'll get here. In a 22 runner field where you can effectively knock out seven or eight because of their draws it pays to have some each way action when you're getting four places.
Betfred Mile:
Cape Peron £50w @ 10/1 (lost)
Cape Peron and Sky Hunter(Arc) £10dbl @ 12/1 and 33/1
Stirring Ballad £25ew @ 8/1 (NR)
(-178)
If he stands his ground he has a leading chance as he looked a Group horse in the making when winning at Doncaster in May. His run on firmer conditions at the Royal Meeting in the Britannia was satisfactory although he was given an awful lot to do that day and used up his turn of foot just getting into contention.
I'm confident this horse has a big handicap in him and if he misses tomorrow he is bred to stay further for a mile so I'll have him in mind for the Cambridgeshire late next month.
This particular handicap is one of the most draw important contests of the season and I have in previous year's place laid a shortie who was badly drawn (Ransom Note). This evening I've added Stirring Ballad at 8/1. She is drawn 4, won at this fixture last year and plainly enjoys a strong pace which she'll get here. In a 22 runner field where you can effectively knock out seven or eight because of their draws it pays to have some each way action when you're getting four places.
Betfred Mile:
Cape Peron £50w @ 10/1 (lost)
Cape Peron and Sky Hunter(Arc) £10dbl @ 12/1 and 33/1
Stirring Ballad £25ew @ 8/1 (NR)
(-178)
Goodwood - 2nd Aug
Yesterday's big race was flat racing at it's very best. Two top class 3yo's battling it out on a fantastic track. I was delighted to see Toronado finally get a much deserved Group 1 and I only hope that they both meet up with Intello at some point.
I didn't think I'd be betting today but Mount Athos seems a little bit too big at 7/2 for the Goodwood Cup. I'm not normally much of a favourite backer but I reckon he's a cut above the field he faces here. His SP in the Hardwicke where he was ridden too far back was 11/4 over a trip short of his best on a course with a short straight against better opponents. Today he mainly faces animals who represent the Ascot Gold Cup form and I'm of the opinion that that was a poor renewal. Second favourite Caucus looks a taking sort and his second behind Gold Cup winner Estimate in the Sagaro in May reads well enough in theory with Estimate obviously going on since but the third that day has been well beaten in handicaps since and I just think the stayers division is poor and I like that Mount Athos brings different form to the table. I can't imagine any of today's field finishing as well as the selection did in last year's Melbourne Cup and the only worry for me is Spencer gives him too much to do.
2012 Melbourne Cup
Tomorrow's bet Cape Peron in the Betfred Mile has been well drawn in 5 and I have topped up my bet. I don't think anymore rain is forecast but the ground will surely be no worse than good for him. He must have a big chance.
Goodwood Cup:
Mount Athos £60w @ 7/2 (Spencered)
(-118)
--
Betfred Mile:
Cape Peron £50w @ 10/1
Cape Peron and Sky Hunter(Arc) £10dbl @ 12/1 and 33/1
I didn't think I'd be betting today but Mount Athos seems a little bit too big at 7/2 for the Goodwood Cup. I'm not normally much of a favourite backer but I reckon he's a cut above the field he faces here. His SP in the Hardwicke where he was ridden too far back was 11/4 over a trip short of his best on a course with a short straight against better opponents. Today he mainly faces animals who represent the Ascot Gold Cup form and I'm of the opinion that that was a poor renewal. Second favourite Caucus looks a taking sort and his second behind Gold Cup winner Estimate in the Sagaro in May reads well enough in theory with Estimate obviously going on since but the third that day has been well beaten in handicaps since and I just think the stayers division is poor and I like that Mount Athos brings different form to the table. I can't imagine any of today's field finishing as well as the selection did in last year's Melbourne Cup and the only worry for me is Spencer gives him too much to do.
2012 Melbourne Cup
Tomorrow's bet Cape Peron in the Betfred Mile has been well drawn in 5 and I have topped up my bet. I don't think anymore rain is forecast but the ground will surely be no worse than good for him. He must have a big chance.
Goodwood Cup:
Mount Athos £60w @ 7/2 (Spencered)
(-118)
--
Betfred Mile:
Cape Peron £50w @ 10/1
Cape Peron and Sky Hunter(Arc) £10dbl @ 12/1 and 33/1
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)