28/10/2013

Ante-Post

I'm gonna be a bit more circumspect with my ante-post selections for the Cheltenham Festival this time around. I got a bit carried away last year, particularly with multiples.

Of course the Festival dominates the National Hunt season but it isn't the be all and end all and there will be plenty of good opportunities before March. This Saturday features good cards at Wetherby and Ascot but the best contest of the weekend is in Northern Ireland and although I would love to see Sizing Europe finally nail one over three miles it's one of his old victims over shorter, Realt Dubh, who looks overpriced for this at 16/1. He travelled like the winner for much of the race last year before landing very awkwardly and losing all momentum at the second last when he and First Lieutenant jumped upsides and as long as the ground isn't too deep he will outrun those odds. I'll discuss the race more on Friday evening.

JNWine Champion Chase:
Realt Dubh £10ew @ 16/1

King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1
Cue Card £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10

RSA:
Clondaw Kaempfer £4w @ 109/1

Jewson:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £20w @ 20/1 (NRFB)

World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1

25/10/2013

Aintree - 26th Oct

I'm on course at one of my local tracks tomorrow and I actually enjoy this meeting more than the Grand National Festival. It's not as well attended and you get more value for money in terms of access for Tattersalls admission.

The Old Roan Chase is the big race on the card and I think conditions will suit Walkon who looks fairly handicapped off 151 and is a reasonable price at 9/2 in not a great renewal. The Alan King gelding had a fine season without actually winning in 2012/13, finding only the top class Al Ferof in the Paddy Power and a ridiculously feather weighted Unioniste in a competitive December handicap (both at Cheltenham) too good for him in two of his best runs. He also ran well at this track over the National fences in the Topham and two and a half miles on ground with some cut in it are pretty much his optimum conditions. I get the feeling unless the ground is really holding he gets outpaced in big field events before staying on so this sort of field size (eleven participants) is ideal. A few of his opponents looks out of their depth tomorrow, four of them are out of the handicap, and his main dangers will probably be Edgardo Sol and Wishfull Thinking. The latter was second in this contest last year and is off a lower mark now but For Non Stop demolished him in the race and the animals in behind were a pretty nondescript bunch. Edgardo Sol is unproven at this sort of trip and doesn't look that well handicapped for all that he likes the track. I can't really envisage him being that strong towards the end of this race whereas the selection should be staying on well. Another plus point is that Walkon's Paddy Power effort was his first race of last season.

Old Roan Chase:
Walkon £25w @ 9/2 and £25w on course at best available odds. (fell)

(-180)

20/10/2013

Kempton - 20th Oct

Vulcanite was a pretty terrible bet yesterday. I was so caught up in the supposed angle that his first run over fences on decent ground was just what he needed that I forgot that he hasn't looked the best of jumpers. Ultimately I think my horrendous end to the flat season has sort of expanded my range and I find myself having bets I wouldn't normally place in the hope of getting the Jumps season off to a good start.

I have backed Rock on Ruby today however. The New One looks a stud and isn't readily opposed but two miles round Kempton in a small field is far more likely to suit the selection and 9/4 is just too big.

William Hill Download the App Hurdle:
Rock on Ruby £40w @ 9/4 (lost)

(-130)

19/10/2013

Cheltenham - 19th Oct

With both codes having good cards today I decided to make two entries rather than have one big one. Actually I only have the one bet at Cheltenham today so it won't take too long. I was at Newbury the day Vulcanite was second to Montbazon in a good class novice hurdle a couple of years back and although I wouldn't say he went into my notebook that day I did think he had a decent race in him and he really interests me today in the handicap chase over 2m5 primarily because this is will be his first outing over fences on decent ground, something I think he needs to run to his best. It's enough of an angle to back him and he looks off a fair mark (137)

Handicap Chase:
Vulcanite £40w @ 56/10 (lost)

(-90)

Ascot - 19th Oct



Without Frankel Champions Day at Ascot has a bit of a damp squib look about it in comparison to last year.
In the Sprint there is no Society Rock, Lethal Force or Gordon Lord Byron, who somewhat surprisingly goes in the QEII.
The fillies race is short on quality as well and numerous animals are missing from the big two races. The Champion Stakes in particular is a pale shadow of it's first two runnings at the Berkshire track. It's a shame there isn't a big 2yo race as well. All in all the flat struggles to end it's season in the proper way and the climax of the Jumps is always far better.

Anyway, onto my bets. In the QEII I wasn't anticipating a bet until I saw some of the odds about Dawn Approach yesterday and I've taken 11/4 about him. He's the best horse in the race who is longer than he should be because of a poor run at Deauville in August. That was one race too many for a horse who had been very busy since the start of May and two months off since then should see him back to his best - he's certainly in expert hands and I do trust his trainer to have him back. Of his rivals I like Soft Falling Rain a lot but he looks a fast ground horse but Maxios and Olympic Glory don't concern me overmuch. The former was flattered in the Moulin and the latter's run in the Marois, whilst very good on the face of it, is by some way his best form and I get the feeling the form is overrated with Moonlight Cloud being a lot better over shorter. On form the selection is easily the best animal in the contest and so the only question is will he be back to his best or near it - I think that's a lot less than a 5/2 shot. The ground concerns me slightly but not enough to put me off at the price.

In the Champion Stakes itself I took 20/1 about Triple Threat earlier in the week and I have topped up. The conditions he'll face today are pretty much his optimum and there isn't a whole lot of contenders in the race you can say that about. Cirrus Des Aigles is one but he looks a bit short given his problems earlier in the year and the lack of quality about the horses he has beaten the last two times he has run. I think Farhh has the best form in the race this year but 10f on soft will really stretch his stamina and he doesn't appeal. Morandi sort of does but the price has gone since Pricewise selected him and I think this short straight over 10f is against him. I'm very hopeful Triple Threat will place and a big priced win is just what I need after a poorish end to my season.

QEII:
Dawn Approach £65w @ 11/4 (lost)

Champion Stakes:
Intello (NR) £19
Triple Threat £20ew @ 19/1 (lost)

(-227.7)







17/10/2013

Cheltenham - 18th Oct

I wasn't anticipating a bet in the Showcase meeting that opens the season at the home of Jumping but can't resist a little nibble on Pure Science in the opening novice hurdle. This horse appeared on my radar when he was most impressive in winning a Bumper at Warwick in January (a card that The New One, who won this race last year for the same trainer also appeared on) and although he didn't win again he ran well enough in the Champion Bumper and remains a horse of some promise. We have loads of positives tomorrow - Twiston-Davies farms this meeting, he gets weight from more experienced rivals and a decent trip on his first attempt over timber are all nice plusses. I thought he'd be around 2/1 for this so am happy to take 7/2.

Novices' Hurdle:
Pure Science £50w @ 7/2

14/10/2013

Champions Day

Ascot's big end of season meeting could look a bit of a damp squib if the forecast rain arrives and the likes of Declaration of War, Farhh, The Fugue and Toronado don't run. As a punter this doesn't bother me in the least as it does present opportunities. Confirmed entrants who appreciate cut in the ground make a certain amount of appeal at this stage given the scope for most if not all of the races cutting up.

In the Champion Stakes itself I was oh so keen about Intello and was gutted when he went to Paris instead but his stablemate Triple Threat appeals at a big price that will surely shorten and I backed him over the weekend. This is the race that is most likely to cut up real bad and although Cirrus Des Aigles will obviously take his chance the selection will likely have his optimum conditions on Saturday and I'm hoping the best of the opposition CDA apart might be the likes of Hillstar, Mukhadram. Let's hope so.

In the other races the QE11 is fascinating with nearly all the market leaders being opposable for one reason or another. I'd be very tempted to back Magician if he ran and Galvaun (another Fabre charge) tempts me at a double figure price in the filles and mares race. It should be a good days racing with opportunities for winners hopefully.

Champion Stakes:
Intello (NR) £19
Triple Threat £10ew @ 20/1

11/10/2013

Newmarket - 12th October

I've not had the best of flat seasons but was in profit until a couple of weeks ago and I think with me having such a good record in the Cambridgeshire and the Arc I went for a home run ball in both contests with the hope of a juicy profit to see me into the winter. I have no regrets as I think it's correct on occasion to go for a big winner - but maybe in future it would be wise not to let past results in the race in question affect the bet size

I'm gearing up for the Jumps now and probably will only have one or two more bets on the level. I like Pallasator in the Cesarewitch tomorrow at Headquarters. This is a giant of a horse who will not find carrying 9st6 much of a problem and there was a lot to like about his first and so far only run of the season on soft ground at Haydock over fourteen furlongs recently. It was a race run only at a moderate gallop and the selection was anchored towards the rear of the field until the horses entered the straight. Luke Morris then started pushing to get competitive and although he didn't do enough to win, he finished in the frame behind two animals with solid form who were better positioned throughout given this sedate early pace. The Cesarewitch is always competitive race of course but he's been well drawn, the ground will not be an issue, he's in the hands of a master trainer for these type races and he has a good draw. The good draw he has means each way is the way to go given the five places on offer.

Cesarewitch:
Pallasator £20ew @ 9/1 and £15w @ 10/1 (5th)

(-103.7)

05/10/2013

Longchamp - 6th Oct

These days I class myself mainly as a Jumps man but the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe tomorrow in Paris will always be my favourite individual race of the whole calendar year and like last year I'm very confident Orfevre will take all the beating. The wide draw he had and the very deep ground combined to thwart him in that renewal and so with a better berth this time around and soft but not heavy underfoot conditions I expect him to be incredibly hard to beat. He has an intense turn of pace that will be hard to counter on soft ground and with Treve looking underpriced having only race against fillies, the going now looking against Flintshire (the 20/1 I had has been laid off), Intello looking even more of a non stayer now and Novellist not running I don't see that many dangers. His compatriot Kizuna might be one and I have backed him each way with Bet365 who are paying four places. My position on the favourite isn't as big as it was last year but I'd be very happy with a win given my mildly disappointing season and the ugly non runner count on the race.

Orfevre £75w @ 48/10 (lost)
Kizuna £15ew @ 8/1 (4pl) (4th)
Kizuna/Cue Card (King George) £10dbl @ 8/1 and 8/1
Non Runners £60 lost

(-113.7)