Newbury - 30th Nov

Today's racing is dominated by the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup. It doesn't look the best of renewals and I managed to get a nice price about Lord Windermere a couple of weeks or so ago and with his profile it's difficult to see him out of the frame. Everyone knows RSA winners have an excellent record in this race and although he was lucky to win that race at the Festival with Boston Bob's last fence fall he is unexposed at this sort of trip and looks a proper stayer. The decent ground that prevailed that day also seemed to suit him and he is a good jumper. He's very solid and I have topped up at 10/1. Looking through the race not many of the runners struck me as huge dangers or possible secondary bet contenders. Invictus has been off the track for a while and his form has been somewhat overrated, Rocky Creek just doesn't seem to have the substance to justify the hype about him, Our Father is priced up simply on trainer form and Highland Lodge doesn't look good enough to me. I do however think Prince de Beauchene is interesting. Not sure he's that well handicapped but he is a really good jumper and I think a good stamina test on decent ground will suit him. He's a big sort who will carry the weight he's been allotted and in not a great field he should outrun the price I have just this minute had matched on Betfair :)

Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup:

Lord Windermere £20w @ 14/1 and £15ew @ 10/1 (lost)

Prince de Beauchene £10w @ 20/1 and £15pl @ 4/1 (lost)

(-207.5)

Newbury - 28th Nov

Newbury's three day Hennessy meeting starts today and the listed Gerry Fielden Hurdle run over a little more than two miles is a very good renewal and I think Puffin Billy is overpriced, or was, at around 9/2. I took that price last night and it seems he's been well backed since. Oliver Sherwood's charge was a bit of a talking horse last season but he did run better than I expected he would do in the red hot Supreme Novices in March. He was well in contention at least for a place until he stumbled upon landing at the second last, a mistake that probably cost him fourth place. I think that form is good enough to probably win this event today and as much as I respect Chatterbox I think that horse should be novice chasing. He was far from fluent in the Neptune at the Festival and it seems the only reason he isn't being sent over the larger obstacles is because his trainer says he has lots of similar horses who could all go novice chasing but there is nowhere for them to go. This is bollocks of course, the race that Le Bec won at the Paddy Power meeting, beating Shutthefrontdoor and African Gold, featured not a single Henderson runner. Methinks Nicky needs to go over the programme book again.

Gerry Fielden Hurdle:
Puffin Billy £40w @ 9/2 (lost)

(-132.5)

Ante-Post

A mixed weekend for me. My bets went down on Saturday but the future looks bright.

The Betfair Chase was a stunning race. I didn't have a bet in it but was delighted to see Cue Card win in good style. When a horse you've backed in the past and have a position on ante-post wins a race at around 10/1 one can't help but question why a bet wasn't placed but I just didn't fancy him on the prevailing ground and the front two in the market looked solid. But I have 10/1 about him for the King George and will look to top that bet up nearer the time. Al Ferof also advertised his well being earlier on in the afternoon and I actually prefer him over Cue Card for Kempton. He's a bigger price of course and really soft ground would be OK for him. At around 8/1 he's still a touch of value for the race and I topped up at 10s immediately after the Amlin. Long term I would be against Cue Card if he went for the Gold Cup. There were some track shenanigans at Haydock with times suggesting the Betfair was run at something less than three miles and the Gold Cup distance would stretch his stamina to breaking point in my opinion.

This Saturday is Hennessy day at Newbury and the 14/1 I took on Lord Windermere recently looks good value now. This horse has all the right credentials for the race being a sound jumping second season chaser off a handy looking mark (RSA champ off 154 - yes please) and he's unexposed over a trip but looks a stayer. It doesn't look a great renewal and think he might be really short on the day.



Hennessy Gold Cup:
Lord Windermere £20w @ 14/1

King George:
Al Ferof £30w @ 14/1
Cue Card £15w @ 10/1

Supreme Novices:
The Liquidator £10w @ 20/1
West Wizard £15w @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10

RSA:
Clondaw Kaempfer £4w @ 109/1
Wonderful Charm £25w @ 16/1 (NRFB)

Jewson:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £20w @ 20/1 (NRFB)

World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1

Ascot and Haydock - 23rd Nov

The Betfair Chase today at Haydock is just such a mouth watering prospect. It has everything, Gold Cup horses, exciting second season chasers, a top class sort stepping up in trip and a diva turned reformed character. There isn't an angle on the race for a bet but it truly is a contest to savour.

Now, from the sublime to the ridiculous. The Amlin Chase at Ascot only has two runners now Captain Chris is a non runner and I think there are multiple reasons for this. First of all race planning - we have too many races between 2 and 3 miles this time of year. The likes of Cue Card, Dynaste, Captain Conan, Kid Cassidy, Sire de Grugy, Oscar's Well, Finian's Rainbow, Champion Court, William's Wishes, Module could all have been at Ascot today but are absent either because other races are more tempting (I can understand the first two named going for the Betfair but Finian's Rainbow and Champion Court could have bypassed the Paddy Power for this contest today) or because some trainer's are just clueless with regards to race planning. Why Module and William's Wishes aren't in this I really don't know.

Onto betting. I mentioned my excitement at the reappearance of Clondaw Kaempfer yesterday and my hope that he'd be a backable price in the 1.50 at Haydock and thankfully he is. I've lumped on at 9/2.
He's an horse that first caught my eye when winning a novice hurdle at Aintree at the Old Roan meeting at Aintree last year. He was most impressive on deep ground that day and ran to a similar level next time out at Haydock. What struck me about him was his action, he had a way of galloping that suggested he'd be even better down the line on a decent surface and so I backed him for the Neptune at the Festival. Unfortunately he got injured at Newbury in the Challow which was run on heavy ground but is off 136 today and looks very well in. The ground is being advertised as soft but times yesterday suggest that might not be the case. I'd like him to go novice chasing after today as I have taken over 100/1 about him for the RSA.

My other punt is on Zarkandar in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot. I managed to get 2/1 matched on the machine this morning having already backed him at 7/4 and I think there is scope for a back to partial lay here with it being such a small field. Everyone keeps going on about Annie Power and her potential but Zarkandar is unexposed over further than two miles and I think he has improvement in him. And of course his form from Aintree with The New One looks incredibly solid now. He goes well fresh and aside from two disappointing runs in the Champion Hurdle he is incredibly hard to beat. It goes without saying that he is much much the best horse Annie Power has ever face and although she gets 11lb off him seven of those are her sex allowance.

Sportsbook Handicap Hurdle:
Clondaw Kaempfer £60w @ 9/2 (lost)

Coral Hurdle:
Zarkandar £90w @ 193/100 (IR lay placed at 6/4 for £30) (lost)

(-92.5)

Weekend Racing - Ascot and Haydock

Tomorrow's Betfair Chase at my local track is the obvious place to start for this weekend's action. It's a mouth watering line-up and whilst I hope they all stand their ground I am slightly worried about Cue Card taking in a race on soft over more than 3 miles with my King George bet on him in mind. The ground is soft at present but it is bright and sunny in the north west at present. I think the race is priced up about right with both Silviniaco Conti and Bob's Worth looking very solid. On the same card Clondaw Kaempfer runs off 136 in a handicap hurdle. I'd prefer to see that horse over fences to be honest but I can't blame the trainer for keeping this most promising of horses over timber with a mark like that. Hopefully he'll be a backable price.

Saturday's Ascot card is almost as good with Al Ferof taking on the Captain's Conan and Chris in the Amlin Chase over 2 and a half miles. I wouldn't oppose the Nicholls horse in what looks a straightforward task if he's back to his best. The other big race features Zarkandar taking on Annie Power in the Ascot Hurdle. The Mullins mare does look an exciting prospect but I can't have her at odds on. Zarkandar goes very well fresh and he is unexposed over more than two miles. His form from Aintree with The New One looks bombproof and I managed to get some 7/4 matched on Betfair last night. I think there is a good chance he's even better than that run at Liverpool indicated coming as it did not long after a poorish run in the Champion Hurdle and in my opinion Anne Power would have to be better than Quevega to beat him in this. There is a sniff of hype about her and I expect to be able to top up on Zarkandar on the day.

Haydock and Ascot both stage card's today as well and whilst the action naturally isn't as high class I've still managed to find a bet in the 2.40 at the latter track. Nick Williams doesn't seem to have any stars in his care at present but as a follower of his stable I still pay special attention to his runners when they appear on my radar. Greywell Boy went onto my tracker when he was third in a handicap chase over two miles also at Ascot at the start of November. He jumped poorly at times but showed good resolution in not being beaten far in third in a race won by a horse who was in the frame at the Festival in the Grand Annual. I do like it when horses plug on despite jumping errors (I call it the Menorah Effect) and the race today is over slightly further which should suit and of course he may just have needed it first time out. Double Ross has form in a couple of decent looking novice chases so far this term and rates a big danger but the race doesn't look that competitive and I'm happy with 100/30 on the selection.


Winkworth Handicap Chase:
Greywell Boy £40w @ 100/30 (lost)

(+27.5)

Coral Ascot Hurdle:
Zarkandar £25w @ 7/4

Open Meeting Postscript

I really enjoyed the racing from both sides of the Irish Sea over the weekend. There were some interesting novice events run at both Punchestown and Cheltenham. Champagne Fever looks very solid for whichever race he goes for at the Festival and I was also impressed with Felix Yonger's tidy jumping and I think it's far from clear cut that the former will go for the Arkle. If his trainer sees the horse as a future Gold Cup contender he may go the Sir Des Champs route and take in the Jewson.

The Liquidator is the one horse I saw in action who impressed me enough to add to my portfolio. He mullared a couple of nice types in Lac Fontana and Sea Lord and I don't buy the excuses put up for those horses. They ran below form because The Liquidator took them out of their comfort zones. A supreme quote of 20/1 put up by Hills immediately after the race was out of line and duly snapped up. I also like Taquin Du Seuil's effort in lowering Oscar Whiskey's colours but he's a horse who hits the ground quite hard and I wouldn't back him for any race in March unless there is plenty of cut.

Hennessy Gold Cup:
Lord Windermere £20w @ 14/1

King George:
Al Ferof £25w @ 15/1
Cue Card £15w @ 10/1

Supreme Novices:
The Liquidator £10w @ 20/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10

RSA:
Clondaw Kaempfer £4w @ 109/1
Wonderful Charm £25w @ 16/1 (NRFB)

Jewson:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £20w @ 20/1 (NRFB)

World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1

Cheltenham - 17th Nov

As tough as the Greatwood looks tomorrow I am very keen on Court Minstrel who looks a high class hurdler on good ground. A previous entry earlier in the week detailed my initial thoughts on the race and nothing has changed although as cover I have decided to add Flaxen Flare rather than Sametegal. Gordon Elliot's charge has been on the go for a while now and although he has run ok in the main this will be his first go at a handicap on a decent surface since his demolition job in the Fred Winter at the Festival. Yes he's on a stone higher mark now but he clearly thrives on this course and in a contest where I think the market leaders are very uninspiring (Pine Creek won a pretty humdrum race last time out on soft ground, Cash and Go couldn't win a worse renewal last year off the same mark and some Tony Martin creature priced up purely on that handler's reputation) I like the idea of having two at bigger prices with the profiles my selections have.

In Ireland there are a couple of novice events worth a look but Jezki was disappointingly taken out of the Morgiana yesterday.

Greatwood Handicap Hurdle:
Court Minstrel £20w/£15ew @ 12/1 (lost)
Flaxen Flare £25w/£15pl @ 12/1 (4th)

Morgiana Hurdle:
Jezki  NR £20

(+67.5)

Cheltenham - 16th Nov

From  a betting point of view nothing caught my eye yesterday although Diamond Harry did tempt me. It was nice to see him give a good account of himself in the cross country event. I was also impressed with Taquin Du Seuil in the novice chase. He jumped well in the main in a race run at a crawl but he does hit the ground hard and will be better on softer. If there was cut in the ground come March he would be a horse I'd be interested in backing for whichever race he took in at the Festival. Another couple of exciting types run today with African Gold taking on Shutthefrontdoor over here and Champagne Fever running at Punchestown. I'm looking forward to seeing both of them take in a fence.

Like I said in my last entry nothing really stands out in the Paddy Power but I do think Wishfull Thinking is overpriced. He's 40/1 with Bet365 and they are one of a number of firms paying five places. He actually has a similar chance to Finian's Rainbow on the book and is three times that horse's price. He also stays this trip better than the Henderson inmate and although he is a moody so and so who was never at the races in the Old Roan at Aintree he should outrun his odds.


Paddy Power Gold Cup:
Wishfull Thinking £15ew @ 40/1 (lost)

(+117.5)

Paddy Power Weekend/Ante-Post

Really looking forward to this weekend's action. We have three really good, hopefully informative cards at Cheltenham to savour and a mouth watering clash between Hurricane Fly and Jezki at Punchestown on Sunday.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup itself looks a good enough contest but the horses I had in mind for it (Captain Conan, Salut Flo and Kid Cassidy) are no longer in the race so it's possible I won't have a bet. If pushed I would say Wishfull Thinking will outrun his odds (33/1) and if that price is available on the day for five places I might tuck in. None of those towards the head of the market appeal.

I have loosened the purse strings for the Greatwood on Sunday. Court Minstrel is a high class hurdler I had in mind for this at the start of the season ground permitting and luckily we look set for a decent surface throughout the meeting. His form, including at this meeting a year ago, is very solid and I think an 8lb rise for his impressive win at Ayr in April (franked since by Sametegal) still allows him to be very competitive in this top quality handicap hurdle. We can forget his poor run at Ascot first time out as he looked all at sea on bad ground. The aforementioned Sametegal is now 5lbs better off for the 2 and a quarter length beating he got from the selection. He is respected and I might use him for cover on the day.

Elsewhere we have some cracking novice events that are more watching than betting events and I am looking forward to seeing Diamond Harry take in the cross country race on Friday. He runs off a handy racing weight and I might back him.

I expect Jezki to lower Hurricane Fly's colours on Sunday and I will be topping up my bet when the decs are made.

On the ante-post front the weights for the Hennessy have come out and I think Lord Windermere is very fairly priced at 14/1 running off 154. RSA winners have an immense record in this race and although he was fortunate to win at the Festival this doesn't look the best renewal of the race.

Greatwood Handicap Hurdle:
Court Minstel £20w @ 12/1

Morgiana Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 5/2

---
Hennessy Gold Cup:
Lord Windermere £20w @ 14/1

King George:
Al Ferof £25w @ 15/1
Cue Card £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10

RSA:
Clondaw Kaempfer £4w @ 109/1
Wonderful Charm £25w @ 16/1 (NRFB)

Jewson:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £20w @ 20/1 (NRFB)

World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1

Wincanton - 9th Nov

Two bets tomorrow both at Wincanton. When a number of bookmakers went one quarter the odds the first five in the Supreme I used that concession to back Melodic Rendezvous to back up my nice positions on My Tent or Yours and Jezki. Unfortunately he never made the race but (an admittedly tenuous) line of form through Puffin Billy suggests he wouldn't have been that far behind the leading trio in the opening race of the Festival and off 150 in the Elite Hurdle I think he's worth a bet at 3/1. That's a bigger price than I expected and I think the reason is mainly because his one poorish run last season was his debut outing of the campaign. This run tomorrow though is an important one as his trainer has said if they are not happy with him he might go novice chasing rather than continuing a hurdling career at the top level. That suggests to me that he'll be straight enough to do himself justice. I respect Far West but I'm not wholly convinced of the worth of the horses in behind (way behind) Our Conor in the Triumph and this is tough for him tomorrow only getting 4lb of a Grade 1 winner. He's now the same price as the selection but that can't be right. Nicholls horses always seem to be overbet at this, one of his local tracks.

My other bet is a lot more tentative. I've punted Alfie Spinner a number of times in his career but he's been out of form for a good year now and he's dropped from the 140 he was on when he unseated in the Hennessy to the 126 he runs off tomorrow in the Badger Ales. I'm basically hoping Nick Williams has plotted this race out for him and made sure he needed his first run of the campaign. At 33/1 he's worth a small bet.


EDIT 09/11:
Awoken this morning to a big Melodic Rendezvous drift. There are so many guessers out there and it seems this theory abut him possibly needing the run is the dominant theme of the race. I suppose Far West being trained by Nicholls part explains it as well. I've gone in again.

Elite Hurdle:
Melodic Rendezvous £70w @ 9/2 (BOG) (won)

Badger Ales Trophy:
Alfie Spinner £10ew @ 33/1 (2nd)

(+147.5)

4000

I'm not normally a jockeys man and think they are a bit overexposed in the trade press but nonetheless AP's achievement yesterday really can't be overstated. Like all punters I have my favourite McCoy moments (not his ride on Wichita Lineman, I was on Maljimar that day) and it would be good to see him pass the two flat jocks ahead of him for the all-time lead flat and jumps. Actually my favourite McCoy ride was Noble Prince in the Jewson - a fairly straightforward one but I was in attendance at the Festival that day. And of course it was nice to see that animal return to something like his best form when winning a Grade 2 at Thurles yesterday.

The other big news yesterday was Our Conor being pulled out of the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown a week Sunday. My fancy for that mighty clash was Jezki and luckily I managed to get a score on him at 5/2 before the market was pulled. As great a hurdler as Hurricane Fly has been I think age will catch up to him this season and I can't see him being able to see off the young blood new to open company this time around. He makes the Champion Hurdle from a punting standpoint and I'm very keen on My Tent or Yours as well as Jezki.

Morgiana Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 5/2

    

King George:
Al Ferof £25w @ 15/1
Cue Card £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10

RSA:
Clondaw Kaempfer £4w @ 109/1

Jewson:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £20w @ 20/1 (NRFB)

World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1

Down Royal - 2nd Nov

As good as the cards are at Wetherby and Ascot today I couldn't quite pull the trigger on anything. I like Court Minstrel in the Listed Hurdle at the latter venue but the ground worries me - I think it'll be too soft for him. So the only wagers of the day are in Northern Ireland. I backed Realt Dubh earlier in thr week thinking the race would cut up and it has - unfortunately he is the one not running. It looks a straigtforward opportunity for First Lieutenant now with three miles looking beyond Sizing Europe, especially with cut in the ground. I took 11/4 this morning. He was beaten by Kauto Stone in the race last year but has plainly improved since then whereas the Nicholls horse has gone backwards. Mount Benbulben has an immense engine but this is a big step up for him and you'd want to see his jumping improve before getting involved with him when in top open company.


JNwine Chase:
Realt Dubh £10ew @ 16/1 (NR)
First Lieutenant £40w @ 11/4 (lost)

(-240)