29/04/2014

Ante-Post

    It's been very quiet on the betting front recently but I've been watching a fair amount of flat racing and two or three horses have gone into the old notebook. I'm looking forward to the weekend and am hopeful that Toormore can go close in the Guineas but Kingman will be hard to beat. I do have a theory with trials though and that is that some horses go into them in an effort to establish themselves and some to confirm what is pretty much already been established. We saw an example of this last year in the Nell Gwyn when Hot Snap looked very impressive in beating Sky Lantern. But whereas prior to that race Hot Snap was a once raced maiden winner Sky Lantern had already been successful in Group 1 company. And so I felt at the time (or more accurately when I was studying the odds for the 1000) that there were grounds for thinking Hot Snap was forward enough to do herself justice that day whereas Sky Lantern was just tuning up for Guineas weekend. In short I reckoned Sky Lantern would reverse placings in the 1000 Guineas. And so she did.

    Kingman didn't go to Newbury for the Greenham with as low a profile as Hot Snap the year before but he had suffered an injury towards the end of his 2yo campaign and so was in essence hoping to put himself firmly in the picture for this Saturday. He did that in no uncertain terms of course and maybe I'm clutching at straws but there is a possibility he left some of what connections hope he'll show at Newmarket on the track in Berkshire that day. Toormore wasn't as impressive in his trial but he didn't need to be. He was last season's champion 2yo and a Group 1 winner to boot. Roll on Saturday.

     I don't normally get involved at Punchestown but the action today was terrific. I was so pleased to see Sizing Europe win his final race but the highlight was Faugheen's victory in the Grade 1 Novice over two miles. He was deeply impressive and would be of interest if he was aimed at the Champion Hurdle next season. For the sake of my Arkle bet I hope he doesn't go chasing.




2000 Guineas:
Toormore £30w @ 8/1

Derby:
Berkshire £10w @ 25/1

--
Arkle:
Josses Hill £10w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1

16/04/2014

Newmarket - 17th April

An important card at headquarters tomorrow with the Craven Stakes being the highlight. My ante-post position on Toormore looks a bit fragile with Kingman putting down a very impressive marker last Saturday. He'll be a hard nut to crack in a fortnight or so and it seems the main obstacle in front of him is the possibility of fast ground. John Gosden naturally wants to look after him given the horse's injury last year and he has said he won't run if conditions aren't suitable. Newmarket will be most keen not to lose the horse to the French version of their Classic and might water to ensure good ground. I hope it doesn't come to that, to me good rattling fast ground is what the 2000 Guineas should be run on. Artificially watering a surface to ensure a certain amount of cushion is understandable for National Hunt racing but not for the flat.

Toormore faces four rivals and Be Ready looks his main danger. This Godolphin animal had one of the best posed portraits in Timeform's recent Racehorses annual and I was contemplating backing him for the 2000 as well until Kingman's display in the Greenham. It should be an informative race.

The Earl of Sefton Stakes is half an hour after the Craven and it's a race with a good betting shape. Just the Judge heads the market but this is her first time up against colts and she seems a bit short at around 3/1. Fencing is second choice but holds that position on trainer form rather than actual form and is easily swerved. Mull of Killough won this event last season and although it looks a slightly better renewal this time around he carried a penalty then that he doesn't now and at 11/2 I think he rates a fair bet. He has a very good record on the Rowley Mile (three wins from five runs) and looks just about the best horse in this race. His recent form has been abroad (Dubai in the spring and Australia last Autumn) and he ran one or two really good races during his spell down under. At eight years of age I do worry something might progress past him but there's no question he's overpriced in this event.

Earl of Sefton Stakes:
Mull of Killough £40w @ 11/2 (won)

(+180)

11/04/2014

Newbury - 12th April

Bronze Angel faced an extremely tough task when he attempted to defend his Cambridgeshire crown after almost a year off the track back in September and alhough I backed him and was relatively confident it wasn't a great surprise to see him get tired in the last couple of furlongs. He had a couple of runs after that - one in a Group race where he was outclassed and one in an all-weather handicap where he got hampered when attempting to make his run. These on the face of it disappointing efforts have resulted in his mark falling to the point where he runs in the Spring Mile tomorrow at Newbury off 96. He was rated 95 when he won that Cambridgeshire.

All in all at 16/1 Im prepared to take a chance that he is the same horse that won that race in September 2012. 


Spring Mile:
Bronze Angel £40w @ 16/1 (lost)

(-40)


04/04/2014

Aintree - 5th April

I have three horses backed already for tomorrow's National and I'm gonna add a couple during the race in running.

Double Seven has been strong in the market all week since Tony McCoy confirmed he rides him. I backed him in March after a horse he beat at Limerick in October won the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. He's a horse with plenty of wins to his name over the last year or so and he's shot up the handicap but I'm happy with that 33/1.
I had The Rainbow Hunter in mind for the race after he impressively won a big handicap at Doncaster in January. He had an operation to aid his breathing before the turn of the year and again, I got in early at a good price. He unseated in the race last year but that win at Doncaster suggests he's a better horse now.
Rocky Creek is a flat track horse who jumps well and stays. The main knock against him is his lack of experience over fences but the race is different now since the fences were hollowed out and I'm willing to ignore some of the old stats that a lot of punters sweared by. His run in the Hennessy reads well and I think he'll love this test.

I backed Teaforthree last year when he just failed to get home and I think his chance comes down to how his ridden in terms of conserving his stamina. In the 2004 National Hedgehunter led right from the get go setting a decent pace but he paid the price and fell at the last when beaten. The next year he came back and was held up just off the pace, only taking over after Clan Royal was mugged at second Becher's. He went on to be one of the most impressive winners I've seen in the great race and I just wonder if Rebecca Curtis has the same tactics in mind for her horse tomorrow. With that in mind I am going to put a bid up on Betfair for about 18/1 (he's currently around 11/1) once the race starts. I'm going to do the same with Tidal Bay but for differing reasons. He's bound to get outpaced at some point in the race and whilst his odds of 20/1 make a certain amount of appeal I reckon 28+ will be available at some stage. I think the gentler version of the race will suit him (he was a non factor in 2011) and I just have to get involved given his crazy looking mark. He's a recent(ish) proper* Grade 1 winner being asked to give less than a stone to the likes of Walkon and Balthazar King.

EDIT 5/4
Bet365 have a pretty amazing concession this morning. Back anything each way in the big race and you get half your stake back. So I've found another couple of horses. Alvarado's win at Cheltenham in the Autumn reads well (he had Monbeg Dude in behind) and he has a nice racing weight. Prince de Beauchene has dropped down the handicap in the last few months and is worth a bet with this concession given his liking for good ground and his win over these fences a couple of years back.

Grand National:
Double Seven £10ew @ 33/1 (5pl) (3rd)
The Rainbow Hunter £10ew @ 40/1 (5pl) (bd)
Rocky Creek £10ew @ 20/1 (6pl) (5th)
Prince de Beauchene £10ew @ 25/1 (5pl) half stake returned (lost)
Alvarado £10ew @ 33/1 (5pl) half stake returned (4th)

Teaforthree £20 bid IR @ 18/1 (fell)
Tidal Bay £20 bid IR @ 28/1 (not matched, cancelled as he was brought down)

*Unlike the rubbish Grade 1's at this meeting Tidal Bay beat Sir Des Champs, Flemenstar and a top form First Lieutenant in his.

(-891.25)

03/04/2014

Aintree - 4th April

Another poor day today and I'll be honest my confidence is shot to pieces. I just haven't been able to get a handle on this jumps season - in particular the staying chasers division. I have a couple of bets tomorrow and then my usual four darts at the National board and then I can put a terrible jumps season behind me.

Wonderful Charm's JLT form was boosted today and he's a horse I always thought of as a three mile chaser. When he won at Wincanton in November I backed him for the RSA with not even a thought in my head that he would go for the shorter race at the Festival but that he did. I think 4/1 is decent enough value tomorrow as I'm confident he'll stay and the favourite had a hard race when winning that RSA. Holywell looks a promising chaser but I'm really not sure he should be shorter than the selection and the other make little appeal.

The Melling Chase looks a tragic renewal and Module is overpriced for it. He ran well enough in the Queen Mother over an inadequate trip and looks the best horse in this race. So at 11/2 I'm happy to be a backer. The opposition really doesn't look up to much with Rajdhani Express' placed effort in the Ryanair hardly looking that inspiring with so many horses running below form in that race. And Ballynagour surely can't win a Grade 1. Even one as poor as this one. Wishfull Thinking might be the biggest danger but he's held on Cheltenham running.

Mildmay Novices' Chase:
Wonderful Charm £40w @ 4/1 (lost)

Melling Chase;
Module £50w @ 53/10 (half this stake has a money back concession - money back if 2nd or 3rd) nr void

(-1036.25)

Aintree - 3rd April

For the first time in quite a few years I won't be attending any of the three days of the Aintree Festival this year, but I'm looking forward to the meeting nevertheless and I have a few bets lined up.

I was hoping Fox Norton would be a nice each way price in the opening Juvenile Hurdle and 8/1 will do. I'm not a mega each way punter by any means but I do fear both Calipto and Actival in this race.We can safely ignore Calipto's disappointing run in the Triumph as his jockey's stirrup snapped and before that both horses looked impressive in their run leading up to Cheltenham. Both Broughton and Royal Irish Hussar sort of let Fox Norton's form down a tad at the Festival but it's possible the former wasn't suited to the track being a pure flat bred horse and the latter doesn't strike me as very reliable. Guitar Pete, who runs tomorrow as well of course, also represents that same formline and he was placed in the Triumph. Ultimately though I believe Nick Williams has a cracking bunch of young hurdlers this season, of which Fox Norton and Le Rocher are the leading pair - and I'm happy to take 8/1, a price I think he will outrun on a track that should suit and on decent ground.

In my entry earlier in the week I mentioned that I seem to back First Lieutenant almost everytime he runs and that got me thinking - has there ever been a horse in my twenty five years of punting that I have backed more? So I did a bit of research and it turns out my bet on him in the Betfred Bowl is the ninth time I will have punted him. And the only other horses that come close are Denman, Lochsong and Desert Sun (a Henry Cecil colt who was winter favourite for the 1991 2000 Guineas). So I don't see the need to rehash all the old arguments with regard to the horse's optimum conditions and love for decent ground/this time of year. Suffice to say I'm happy with 7/2 although I do fear Dynaste.

The Manifesto Novices' Chase later on the card looks a weak Grade 1 and I think Fox Appeal is overpriced slightly at 10/1. He's a good jumper in the main who appreciates a decent surface and two and a half miles is his trip. His overall form gives him something to find but at the price I'm willing to bet his optimum conditions will see him outrun those odds. I liked his run last time out behind Balder Succes on ground that was softer than ideal for him and Oscar Whiskey and Western Warhorse both strike me as opposable. Oscar because I'm just not convinced about him over fences, Western Warhorse because he had a hard race at Cheltenham.

IJF Juvenile Hurdle:
Fox Norton £20ew @ 8/1 (lost)

Betfred Bowl:
First Lieutenant £40w @ 7/2 (lost)

Manifesto Novices' Chase:
Fox Appeal £30w @ 10/1 (lost)

(-996.25)