Fairyhouse and Carlisle- 30th Nov

    Tomorrow's Drinmore looks a very hot renewal. The Tullow Tank, Valseur Lido and Apache Stronghold all won well in lower grade events last time out and look like horses full of promise at this stage of their fledgling chase careers and I narrowly prefer the last named at 5/1. I think TTT will be hard to beat but if I was making a book I'd swap the prices of the selection and the Mullins horse around.

    Fingal Bay was disappointing today but he clattered a couple and folded tamely before they even entered the straight and I just have to hope he didn't hurt himself. I mentioned the Sky Lantern/Hot Snap reversal theory recently as a sort of way of not being too harsh on Group/Grade 1 horses who disappoint in a lower grade race during my preview of the Betfair Chase and we saw another example today with More of That being pushed out to a rather sexy looking 5/1 for the World Hurdle after his poor run in the Grade 2 Long Walk Hurdle on the same card. He looked heavy to me and just needed it on ground much deeper than he encountered at Cheltenham in March. I think some bookies have over-reacted and I was happy to take some of that action.

    My other bet is a horse I've been dying to see take a fence ever since I saw him in novice hurdles a couple of years back. Clondaw Kaempfer looked a horse full of promise that season before a poor effort on ground much too soft for him in the Challow at Newbury did for him. I was disappointed he stayed over hurdles last season but it ended up working out as he won a nice event at the Aintree Festival. He has the size for chasing and in an ordinary looking race at Carlisle I think Bet365 have taken a chance in offering 100/30. Stakes are small given this will be his first outing over the larger obstacles and I'm not a rampant fan of the trainer.

Saturday Naps Challenge Novices' Chase:
Clondaw Kaempfer £25w @ 100/30 (nr)

Drinmore Novice Chase:
Apache Stronghold £25w/£15pl @ 5/1 (2nd)

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Newbury - 29th Nov

    Fingal Bay has been one of my favourite horses in training ever since he handed Simonsig his only defeat in a novice hurdle at Sandown almost three years ago and rising nine the Hennessy today is the first time in his career that he has the conditions he was bred for. As good a hurdler as he was chasing was always going to be his game and despite some good performances as a novice in that sphere a couple of years back he never had the stamina test that he craves and I'm very happy with the 9/1 voucher I possess.

    I was contemplating covering on Smad Place but it's not a race where I can narrow the field down to just the one danger so I'm not going to bother. Djakadam actually isn't that bad a price now at 11/2 given his mouth watering mark and if I was in poor form I would probably consider backing both of those two but the last few months have been so good that I'm gonna just sit back with just the one selection and enjoy one of the best races of the year.

Hennessy Gold Cup:
Fingal Bay £40w @ 9/1 (lost)

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Ante-Post

   

    Another good weekend for me and I just hope my good run continues for a wee while yet. I have a couple already lined up for Saturday and Sunday and confidence couldn't be higher. I've already mentioned my liking for Fingal Bay in a previous entry and it looks like Newbury will have a good deal of ease in the going and I just think the test that is the Hennessy Gold Cup will really suit the horse, and of course his trainer has never been in better form. I think Smad Place might be the main danger and I might cover with him on the day, especially if his price stays honest with Djakadam being so short.

    The best Novice Chase of the season so far takes place at Fairyhouse on Sunday and I've taken some 5/1 about Apache Stronghold. This Noel Meade horse is a big strong chasing type who was always going to improve on what he showed on the track last season over hurdles. I fell for him when he won at Navan this time last year when he struck me as one of those horses who just catch your attention through their sheer physical presence. I'm not sure he'll ever be a Cheltenham horse, partly because of his liking for soft ground and partly because his trainer likes to win plenty of races with his best animals in Ireland and doesn't necessarily have them peaking for March. His last top class chaser was Pandorama (also a soft ground beast) who was unwisely put in Long Run's Gold Cup on pretty fast ground and was injured. Apache jumped well enough on his chasing debut recently and although The Tullow Tank will be a tough nut to crack I have to back him on price grounds, I don't see him out of the frame.

Hennessy Gold Cup:
Fingal Bay £30w @ 9/1

Drinmore Novice Chase:
Apache Stronghold £15ew @ 5/1

--
Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £15w @ 20/1

Queen Mother:
Simonsig £10w @ 14/1

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £10w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1

Haydock - 22nd Nov

    It's been raining in Lancashire for most of the afternoon/evening which will really suit Silviniaco Conti whom I took 5/1 about for the Betfair Chase last Sunday. I've topped up at 4s since and believe he has a favourite's chance for the reasons I outlined in my last entry.

    My other bet is on the Nick Williams trained Aubusson in the Fixed Brush event that precedes the big race. This promising gelding ran well first time out when he pulled clear with Shelford in a handicap hurdle at Chepstow late last month. Shelford had beaten the highly touted Emerging Talent a fortnight before and that horse's run last Sunday was a nice boost to the form. Aubusson is bred to appreciate this step up to three miles and with underfoot conditions sure to suit I think 11/1 is a very fair each way price with four places on offer.

EDIT: 11:28am

    I'm gonna have to start blogging Saturday's bets on the actual day if this morning's price movements are anything to go by.

    Overnight I thought 7/2 Conti, 4/1 Cue Card, 5/1 Dynaste and Taquin Du Seuil were about right for the Betfair Chase. As I type though Taquin is now favourite (I like the horse a lot and have him ante-post for the Gold Cup) but market leader in a race this stacked is excessive. Cue Card is 5/1 in a couple of places and I've had to take that. I've punted him as cover and in a small double with Melodic Rendezvous who I think can give The New One a race on soft ground earlier on in the card.

Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle:
Aubusson £25ew @ 11/1 (won)

Betfair Chase:
Silviniaco Conti £40w @ 9/2 (won)
Cue Card £25w @ 5/1 (lost)

Melodic Rendezvous (Price Rush Grade 2 Hurdle)/ Cue Card £10w double (lost)

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Ante-Post

  Apologies for this weird looking entry. I have a new computer and paint isn't working the way it did on the old one. I've had to insert the screenshot below direct from my Tablet and it's effected the text. 

 The last week or so have been notable for the bold, front running displays put in by Champagne  Fever at Clonmel and King's Palace at Cheltenham on Saturday. Naturally down the line bigger tests await but for now I'm very happy with the positions I have on them for the Festival in March.

My local track stages it's best card of the season on Saturday and I took some 5/1 about Silviniaco Conti yesterday afternoon for the Betfair Chase. He was beaten by Cue Card in the race last year but his trainer getting a run into him beforehand this time around could be crucial, especially as Cue Card is coming back from injury and there has to be a slight doubt he'll be quite as good as he was. He drifted to 5s after that run in the Charlie Hall but I didn't see his relatively poor effort as a negative at all. Silviniaco Conti is a Grade 1 chaser and it pays to ignore the runs of high class animals (on the flat and the jumps) in races below the top level. I call this theory the Sky Lantern/Hot Snap reversal.

The following week the Hennessy takes place at Newbury and I've always been a big fan of Fingal Bay and have no hesitancy taking 10/1 about him for the big race. His chasing career was curtailed after a disastrous outing at Exeter almost two years back but he's a horse who needs a stamina test and a left handed track and Newbury should be perfect for him. He'll be off around 155 for the race and it bares pointing out that the last time he went left handed in a chase he was attempting to give Dynaste 4lbs in the 2012 renewal of the race Champagne West won on Friday. A difficult task.

Betfair Chase:

Silviniaco Conti £20w @ 5/1

Hennessy Gold Cup:

Fingal Bay £15w @ 10/1

Arkle Chase:

Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

RSA Chase:

King's Palace £15w @ 20/1

Queen Mother:

Simonsig £10w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:

Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1

Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1

Cheltenham - 16th Nov

    I really enjoyed the racing yesterday but couldn't unearth a bet. The highlight was the round of jumping King's Palace put in on his chasing debut, bigger tests are on the horizon but I think he can go to the top.

    Today's card at headquarters is actually a bit better from a quality standpoint with a really hot looking novice chase and the Shloer thing (worst race name of the year.) I was quite tempted by Uxizandre in the latter event but just feel the two mile trip is on the short side.

    The bet today is in the Greatwood Hurdle where I'm going Regal Encore despite the fact that he has been somewhat disappointing thus far in his jumping career. He's a hard horse to resist off of 130 and a double figure price and it's difficult to see him out of the frame. I was at Aintree for his hurdling debut when he was bested by Garde la Victoire and he's a stone better off with that horse today. He's also a lot better off at the weights with Baltimore Rock for their meeting in the Imperial Cup in March and he just looks well in off his rating. He was never put into the race first time out at Chepstow on bad ground over a trip too far from him and I believe connections were protecting his mark that day. With 17 runners and 4 places paid it's one of those races where there is each way value and I think the selection is top of the list in that regard.

Greatwood Handicap Hurdle:
Regal Encore £25ew @ 12/1 (lost)

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Finally I'd like to pay tribute to Dessie Hughes who died this morning at the age of 71. He was a fine jockey and a great trainer. He will be sorely missed by the jumping communities on both sides of the Irish Sea

R.I.P.

Cheltenham - 14th Nov

    I spent a good hour looking at video form for Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup yesterday evening and came to the conclusion that Colour Squadron was well worth a bet at around 14/1 (17 on the machine.) He's a horse that is seen to best effect in a big field with a fast pace, conditions that mean he hasn't time to think about it like he did on his seasonal debut the other week. Unfortunately he was pulled out earlier on today when final decs were made and instead runs in a Novice event tomorrow.

    He dominates the market at around 9/4 but with only seven runners I think he's well worth taking on and I will do so with one of his stable companions. I'm a sucker for a Phillip Hobbs chaser and have had good days and bad with the likes of Menorah, Wishfull Thinking and Captain Chris in recent times, and I have backed Fingal Bay for the Hennessy later this month (to be expanded upon in my next Ante-Post entry.)

    Champagne West at this stage of his career looks every bit as promising as those named did and I can't resist a bit of 4/1 about him in what looks a really nice race. As well as Colour Squadron, Dell' Arca also trades shorter in the market for this and the only reason I can find for that is the Pipe's stable excellent record at this meeting. I'm surprised this horse is even being tried over fences as he's very much flat bred. I like Splash of Ginge as a potential chaser but he carries a meaty penalty and ultimately despite this being his debut over fences I think 4s is quite a tidy price.

Steel Plate and Sections Novices' Chase:
Champagne West £40w @ 4/1 (won)

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Navan - 9th Nov

    The Mouse Morris trained Baily Green looks overpriced at 8/1 with Ladbrokes for the Fortia Chase over two miles at Navan tomorrow. It's a tricky event with most of the line-up having a question mark or two against there names but the magic sign have this wrong with Days Hotel (on the wane) and Special Tiara (good ground animal) both unjustifiably shorter in the market than the selection. Baily Green has some really nice bits of form, particularly when running Sizing Europe close at Gowran Park at the start of last season and when placing in the Arkle and is a good jumper in the main. He is simply too big a price for this race.

Fortia Chase:
Baily Green £40w @ 8/1 (lost)

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Wincanton - 8th Nov

    Nick Williams has a couple out tomorrow in the two big races at Wincanton, one of them an old favourite and one more a new one. Alfie Spinner runs again in the Badger Ales Trophy, a race he was second in last season to a rampantly well handicapped Standing Ovation. That horse re-opposes again and has already beaten Alfie when they both made their seasonal debuts at Cheltenham last month but Alfie is slightly better off at the weights and is still in my opinion off a winning mark (127). I backed him three or four times last season and he always seemed to find a good one to beat him (Mendip Express stands out) but he's consistent and jumps very well in the main. I think 14/1 is very fair.

    I'm also backing Fox Norton in the Elite Hurdle. I think this race has a great betting shape with the front two in the market both very opposable at relatively short odds. Rock on Ruby has been a high class hurdler in the past but he's nearly ten years old now and giving a shedload of weight away in this. Irving is a very nice prospect but is incredibly short given both his level of form and record of his trainer's horses first time out this season. He beat the selection's stable companion Amore Alato five lengths off level weights in the Dovecote at Kempton last February and it's clear to anyone who follows Nick's stable that Fox Norton and Le Rocher were both well ahead of that horse in the yards pecking order last season. Fox Norton was a tad disappointing last back end in a Grade 1 at Aintree but he hadn't run since the turn of the year and that's always a red flag for novices going into the big spring Festivals and he was much better in a hotter looking event at Punchestown in the following month when only Abbyssial and Apache Stronghold could best him. It's a tough assignment tomorrow but the 21 on Betfair available as I type this is bordering on insulting.

Badger Ales Trophy:
Alfie Spinner £25w @ 14/1 (3rd)

Elite Hurdle:
Fox Norton £25w @ 20/1 (lost)

Both the above in a £10ew dbl, each at 14/1

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