30/01/2015

Sandown - 31st Jan

    Champagne West is a horse I've backed a couple of times this season already and I think he'll out run a double figure price in the RSA at the Festival so it's no surprise that I'm keen on him in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown. I thought he ran an excellent race last time out at Cheltenham where he just found Ptit Zig just too nippy and classy to hold off and with nothing in that horse's league in opposition tomorrow I make him a reasonable bet at 5/2. Irish Saint did look like he appreciated the step up to 2m4f in his last race but even with the trip tomorrow being more in his favour than the selection's Champagne West just looks a better horse to me and the top of the market is wrong. The rest of  the field look a bit outclassed.

Scilly Isles Novices' Chase:
Champagne West £40w @ 5/2 (fell)

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26/01/2015

Ante-Post

    I've spent the last few hours watching back the last couple of days action from Doncaster, Cheltenham and Leopardstown and it's certainly given punters plenty to think about re Festival clues.

    Yesterday's racing from Leopardstown was intense -  I was gutted when Jezki bumbled over the last as I'm sure we'd have seen him in a titanic battle all the way to the line with Hurricane Fly. It looked to me like the legend would have won but Jezki did his Champion Hurdle prospects no damage at all and I'm confident better ground and Cheltenham will see him at his best. I was speechless watching Un De Sceaux (and that's the last time I'm typing out his full name, I have to spell check everytime, just like Taquin Du Seuil) stretch clear of a couple of high class sorts in the Irish Arkle. He was breathtaking and whilst I haven't totally thrown the metaphorical slip away with regards to Josses Hill I can't say I have too much confidence left.

    Over on Cleeve Hill Saturday's card was full of fascinating racing and I've come away with another bet to add to my expanding portfolio. Value At Risk was a shortie for the 2m4f Novice Hurdle but found the combination of trip/pace totally against him. However in defeat he came across as a really likeable type as he battled back once headed. The longer trip of the Albert Bartlett in March will be much more down his alleypipe and after No More Heroes was beaten in Ireland on Sunday I think he stood out at 14/1 for the race, a very open looking one.

    As for the Gold Cup, Many Clouds certainly enhanced his claims in the BetBright Cup but I think Smad Place will reverse form on better ground. The grey was not suited by the rather steady pace and at 20/1+ I may consider backing him during the Festival. Possibly in a single but more likely in one of the each way doubles I like to have. Speaking of which I've placed my first one this evening - I wanted to wait till nearer the time but I have a feeling the 16/1 about Champagne West might not last so was anxious to secure some of it. I can't understand why this horse is as big as he is - yes he was put in his place last time out but that was over a trip short of his optimum and he was beaten by Ptit Zig who is rightly a warm order for the JLT. It looks solid form and the Hobbs horse will put up a good fight in the RSA, a race that could be tailor made for him.


--

Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £20ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £10w @ 14/1

Queen Mother:
Uxizandre £15ew @ 16/1 NRNB

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £40w @ 12/1

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1
Cue Card £20w @ 8/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £30w @ 47/10

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10w @ 25/1
Value At Risk £15w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1

To Win at the Festival:
Cue Card £10 @ 16/1

Doubles:
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won)/King's Palace(RSA) £10w @ 6/1 & 5/1

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Champagne West(RSA) £10ew @ 6/1 & 16/1

£15 lost on Non-Runner(s)

24/01/2015

Cheltenham - 24th Jan

    The 5/1 I took about Smad Place earlier in the week for the BetBright Gold Cup trial at Cheltenham later today looks very solid now we only have six runners in the race and I still make him a half decent bet at around 100/30 now. I backed him in both the Hennessy and the RSA and although he was disappointing at Newbury it turned out not having a run under your belt before that contest was a big disadvantage (Djakadam was behind him that day and that horse was most impressive at Gowran on Thursday.) Smad Place's form with O'Faolains Boy at the last Festival gives him the beating of Many Clouds off levels the way I read the formbook so getting eight pounds off him is very handy. Dynaste looks the only danger and is the best horse in the race but I think this will be a test despite the small field and I think he'll be vulnerable up the hill in any race over more than three miles.

    My other bet on an excellent Cheltenham card is Horatio Hornblower in the novice handicap chase that precedes the BetBright. Nick Williams is using Lizzie Kelly and her valuable seven pound claim more and more this season and that 7lbs off his mark of 127 should make him very competitive in this race but there's a couple of nice horses opposing higher up the weights in Stellar Notion and Ned Stark so I'm making this bet an each way one. Horatio jumped really well in his last race and it goes without saying that his trainer is having a very good season.

Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase:
Horatio Hornblower £20ew @ 9/1 (lost)

BetBright Cup Chase:
Smad Place £20ew @ 5/1 (3pl) and £20w @ 100/30 (2nd)

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20/01/2015

Ante-Post

    As you'd expect there are plenty of interesting contests this Saturday at Cheltenham on trials day and the BetBright Cup in particular looks like it could be very informative with regards to the Gold Cup. Dynaste heads the market and if he runs well in the race I would expect him to be steered towards the blur ribband and away from the Ryanair. He's not a guaranteed stayer of course and he's not favoured by the weights either. In a Grade 2 that has penalties a plenty for winning Grade 1's and even some top Handicap Chases the Alan King trained Smad Place gets off scot free and receives between 4 and 8lbs off everything else in the line-up. With that in mind I think he rates a decent each way poke for this at 5/1 with 3 places paid. He didn't run well in the Hennessy but he might have needed that run no matter how well trained he was for it (he jumped well that day but looked to me like he just blew up in the straight) and his form in last year's RSA puts him right there. We might get less than eight runners as well.

    I've added a couple of bets to my Festival portfolio. Sprinter Sacre didn't run too bad at Ascot but it's hard to see how he isn't one to oppose at Cheltenham now at around 11/4 and I've had a bet on Uxizandre at 16/1. He's more than twice the price of Dodging Bullets whom he beat at the track in November and his price reeks of recency bias. Yes he was poor in the Dial-a-Bet at Leopardstown over Christmas but he was asked to set too fast a pace on bad ground that day and it's easy to forgive him that run - especially given his course form at Cheltenham and his preference for better ground. He's an economical jumper who likes to lead and stays further than two miles and I'd be surprised if he's out of the frame on suitable ground. 16s NRNB is excellent value at this stage.

    Back to Dynaste. Given my earlier comments it's fair to say the Ryanair market will be shaken up if he runs well on Saturday and with Don Cossack looking too short at present (I don't see him as a Cheltenham horse at all) I've taken some 8/1 about Cue Card before he tightens. It's been assumed in some quarters that he's a horse on the decline but he wasn't beaten out of sight in the King George. In fact he was only a length further back this season than last and this year's was a better renewal. No he probably isn't as good as he was but at this best he was a 180 beast - he won't need to be within ten pounds of that rating to be very competitive in seven weeks.

BetBright Cup:
Smad Place £20ew @ 5/1


--

Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £20ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £5w @ 15/1

Queen Mother:
Uxizandre £15ew @ 16/1 NRNB

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £40w @ 12/1
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won)/King's Palace £10w dbl @ 6/1 & 5/1

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1
Cue Card £20w @ 8/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £20w @ 5/1

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10w @ 25/1

Gold Cup:
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1
Wonderful Charm £5w @ 156/1

To Win at the Festival:
Cue Card £10 @ 16/1

£10 lost on Non-Runner(s)

17/01/2015

Ascot & Haydock - 17th Jan

 


    Sprinter Sacre's return to action tomorrow after more than a year off the track is by far the biggest event of the day and I'll have my fingers crossed that he puts in a clear round and looks at least within hailing distance the sort of horse he was a couple of years back. His wins in the Arkle and Tingle Creek are cherished memories in my punting and race going life. I took the pic above from the parade ring at Sandown that day in 2012.

    My one bet today is at Haydock and it's on Corrin Wood in the Peter Marsh Chase. I don't really have a tracker email set up for the jumps but if I did this horse would have gone in it after his round of jumping at Wetherby on Boxing Day. A confirmed front runner he set a decent pace that day on ground that was probably not quite as soft as he ideally likes but carrying 11st12 he just couldn't fend off a couple of his rivals towards the end of the race.  I suspect that his trainer has had this race today in mind as possibly his main target this season given the likely ground and the fact that it's on his local track (near enough) and I'm happy to take 6/1+ on the machine about him. The ground has come up perfect and I expect his jockey to be slightly more circumspect with regards to pace setting.

Peter Marsh Chase:
Corrin Wood £40w @ 64/10 (pu)

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14/01/2015

Ante-Post

    I'll probably be doing an ante-post update once a week from now until the Festival. Tea For Two was deeply impressive in the Lanzarote last Saturday but narrowing down a possible target race for him at Cheltenham (if he went there at all) seemed problematical at first until his owner said he'd be staying in the novice ranks. Given the likelihood of decent ground in March I reckon the Albert Bartlett is a more likely race for him than the Neptune and so I've taken 25s about him for the longer contest. He was beaten in a decent novice hurdle at Newbury in November but that was a slowly run four runner contest totally at odds with the sort of pace he needs and his price seems inflated to me.

    I've been itching to have another pop at the Gold Cup since a number of firms went NRNB and Silviniaco Conti shortened for the race after his King George win. I've settled on Boston Bob who hasn't run badly thus far this season but usually improves for spring ground. When his RSA run is ever mentioned people debate about whether or not Lord Windermere would have caught him if he hadn't fallen but imo the real debate is how far would he have won the race if Townend had held on to him for longer (presuming he had cleared the last of course). He went clear that day as they rounded the turn into the straight and I think if that turn of speed had been postponed he'd have had more chance of jumping that last fence clearly. Ultimately three miles plus on good ground looks like being his optimum conditions and he has excellent place claims at least.




Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £20ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £5w @ 15/1

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £40w @ 12/1
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won)/King's Palace £10w dbl @ 6/1 & 5/1

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £20w @ 5/1

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10w @ 25/1

Gold Cup:
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1
Wonderful Charm £5w @ 156/1

To Win at the Festival:
Cue Card £10 @ 16/1

£10 lost on Non-Runner(s)




09/01/2015

Kempton - 10th Jan

    As a Nick Williams follower it's no surprise that I fancy the pants off Tea for Two for Kempton's big race this Saturday. This horse has been one to follow since his impressive bumper win at the back end of last season at Exeter, but his three runs since then have been in all small field events at short prices so I haven't bothered betting him. Williams loves the Lanzarote having won it twice in recent years and this horse was always gonna be his entry for it, especially once Aubusson won the Fixed Brush race at Haydock. Nothing more to say really, he's a course and distance winner and Lizzie Kelly takes a very handy seven pounds off his back. Fingers crossed.

Lanzarote Hurdle:
Tea For Two £35w @ 11/2 (won)

Tea For Two/King's Palace (RSA) £10w dbl @ 6/1 and 5/1

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04/01/2015

Ante-Post

    Looking back 2014 was one of the best betting years I've had and I enter the new year with spirits high and a decent bankroll. This 'roll was pretty low before the start of the last flat season as I had to dip into it when I found myself between jobs but it's healthy enough now. I could increase my stakes but I'm waiting for the Festival and then the start of the next flat season to do that.

    I'm on a bit of a losing run at present but if there's a time for that to happen it's January which should be a quiet month; most of my bets will be ante-post from here until March. So as well as losing plenty of money since the start of the Christmas period I've been topping up and adding to my Festival portfolio.

    I mentioned how relatively happy I was with Josses Hill's first effort over fences in a previous entry and I did take some 12/1 about him for the Arkle after that race at Ascot. I'm pleased Un De Sceaux seems to be a likelier opponent from the Mullins stable than Vautour but we need to see a more polished round of jumping the next time. I've had it in mind that Jezki would be my Champion Hurdle horse for a while but I didn't think I'd be punting him until March. However he touched 13/2 in a place not long before the Ryanair Hurdle and was available at 11/2 NRNB not long after. Both those prices have been taken. Faugheen will be a formidable opponent but he's crazy short for the race at present.

    Elsewhere I've topped up on King's Palace for the RSA, backed Champagne Fever for the Ryanair also added a sneaky bet on Cue Card to win any race at the Festival. I was on Oddschecker looking at that market when news broke that he would be aimed at the Ryanair and noticed that whilst he was 10/1 for that race RaceBets were going 16/1 that he would win at the Festival at all. I snaffled some of that. My only other addition is a small bet on Shaneshill for the Neptune. I prefer a Mullins novice hurdler with Cheltenham form and although he was beaten in his last race better ground will suit him much more. I'd prefer him for the Supreme in all honesty but doubt he'll go there given his handler's other options at that trip.




--
Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £20ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £5w @ 15/1

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £40w @ 12/1

Queen Mother:
Simonsig £10w @ 14/1
Felix Yonger £10ew @ 33/1 NRNB

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £20w @ 5/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1
Wonderful Charm £5w @ 156/1

To Win at the Festival:
Cue Card £10 @ 16/1








02/01/2015

Sandown - 3rd Jan

    Alfie Spinner was rather disappointing at Cheltenham the other day but Nick Williams is in good form overall and the horse of his that's uppermost on my mind these days runs tomorrow at Sandown and I fancy him very strongly. I backed Amore Alato when he was narrowly beaten first time out in a similar event at the same course at the start of December and the improvement I expect from him from his first run of the season to his second is more than enough to offset the 3lb he's gone up in the ratings. The form of that race has been franked since and even at 4/1 he looks a good bet and I'm going in with the same strategy of over betting him and asking for a partial lay given his front running tendencies.

32Red Handicap Hurdle:
Amore Alato £90w @ 4/1 (lost)

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