27/04/2015

Ante-Post

    I was in Germany over the weekend so missed AP's final day in the saddle and I forgot to record it as well. I was in Cologne for a concert and lucked out in noticing that Krefeld Racecourse, which is about 50km north of the city, had a meeting yesterday. It's a quaint little course and with no knowledge of any of the horses I basically chose my 10euro per race bets purely on paddock inspection. I managed to get the winner of the first race and in the big one - the Group 3 Dr. Busch Memorial, I felt the 2/5F Karpino was overshadowed by a horse called Ajalo in the paddock. This animal was trading at around 20/1 at the time on the Tote and was only collared in the last half furlong or so by the odds-on jolly. Anyway, I really enjoyed my visit and intend to hopefully go to more foreign gaff tracks in the future.

    My faith in Estidhkaar for Saturday's 2000 Guineas has not been dampened by his owner supplementing one of his other horses into the race. Sheikh Hamdan has very deep pockets and likes to go into big races mob handed if he can - he let Dermot Weld run Tarfasha in the Oaks despite having Taghrooda for the race last June. I'll be topping up on the day.

    I've taken a position on Karakontie in the Lockinge a fortnight after the Guineas. This race has had a huge cash boost this season so I'm pretty confident it's the target the horse and simply put Corals going 6/1 is too big to resist. He had four races last season, won both times he ran over a mile and is a high class horse. Night of Thunder looks the pick of the opposition and heads the market but I'm not sure about Hannon's horses first time out at present and have it in my mind that his main target could be the Queen Anne. He was also beaten first time out last season (admittedly by Kingman.)

2000 Guineas:
Estidhkaar £25w @ 12/1

1000 Guineas:
High Celebrity NR £15

Lockinge Stakes:
Karakontie £25w @ 6/1



                                                                        Krefeld Racecourse


21/04/2015

Ante-Post

    I thought Saturday's card at Newbury was most informative for the future - we saw a very impressive newcomer from the Roger Varian stable and Arab String looks a Group 1 winner in the making after his John Porter win. I didn't acquire any tracker horses but I have backed Estidhkaar for the 2000 Guineas and see this evening that I'm far from being alone in being impressed with his run in the Greenham as his price has been slashed. He was a good looking 2yo who looks that kind of physical specimen one looks for in the early classics and is easily excused his rather disappointing run on soft ground in the Dewhurst last Autumn. He battled back well when headed on Saturday (I like it when a pace setter does this) and will relish the extra furlong in a couple of weeks. I've been after a bet in the 2000 for a while with the market looking way too lopsided in favour of various Ballydoyle horses, none of whom appeal much. Gleneagles is an incredibly short price for a horse that had six runs as a 2yo and he looks quite exposed to me - his odds in no way reflect his chance surely. The other thing about the horses from that stable is they are tending to need their first runs of the season (as I know only too well after a poor bet yesterday on Due Diligence.)


2000 Guineas:
Estidhkaar £25w @ 12/1

1000 Guineas:
High Celebrity NR £15


19/04/2015

Curragh - 19th April

    Last year's flat campaign was one of my better ones and I hope to build on it in 2015. I spent a lot more time watching lower grade racing with the intent of finding handicappers to follow and it really paid off.

    My first bet of the season is in the Gladness Stakes in Ireland this afternoon. I'm taking a chance that Due Diligence will be ready first time out in a race where he is the clear form pick. His run behind Slade Power in the Diamond Jubilee was very taking given how he was taken across the width of the track and it's simply a case today that his price (7/2) is enticing enough to take the chance that he'll be forward enough to do himself justice.

Gladness Stakes:
Due Diligence £60w @ 7/2 (lost)

14/04/2015

Cheltenham - 15th April

 

                                                                 Champion Court - 2013


    I thought I was done betting on the jumps after Saturday's National but tomorrow's cheeky little card at Cheltenham has thrown up a bet. Ataglance has run at the last couple of Festivals with rather differing outcomes - In 2014 he was second to Present View in the Novices' handicap chase but last month finished midfield in the Plate. He's gone down a couple of pounds in the handicap since that last run but the angle I'm using to justify a bet is a prep rather than a ratings based on. Last year he had a spin over hurdles in February before his Festival appearance but this time around that didn't happen - his last outing prior to Cheltenham was in the December Gold Cup, a race I backed him in. He was disappointing that day it has to be said but maybe the ground wasn't quick enough for him. I might be overreaching for a bet here but track conditions are his optimum tomorrow, the opposition look in the main to be exposed and that run at the Festival should have tuned him up nicely. His trainer strikes me as a shrewd one I like that he's bringing the horse all the way from Yorkshire for another crack at a Cheltenham handicap.

Silver Trophy Chase:
Ataglance £20ew @ 6/1 (pu)

(-124.25)

10/04/2015

Aintree - Day 3


                                                                Rhyme 'n' Reason - 1988


    Like most punters the Grand National was my first experience of betting/horse racing and whilst I still have a lot of time for the race it's way down my list of priorities from a punting standpoint and my usual policy is to pick a handful of horses and have small each ways on them. I've picked Godsmejudge, Rocky Creek and Cause of Causes this time around for reasons I've outlined in various ante-post entries in recent weeks.

    The first National I can recall is L'Escargot's in 1975 (I backed the second Red Rum both in that race and the following year when he was runner-up again to Rag Trade.) Rhyme 'n' Reason was the first horse I ever had as much as a tenner on and I only backed him because of a lyric from a Metallica song, form studying only started in 1989. It's the occasion and the buzz as much as the race itself that makes it for me and lets hope all horses and jockeys return home safe and sound.

Grand National:
Godsmejudge £10w @ 25/1 and £5ew @ 20/1 (pu)
Rocky Creek £10ew @ 10/1 (5pl) (lost)
Cause of Causes £10ew @ 20/1 (5pl) (lost)

(-84.25)




09/04/2015

Aintree - Day 1

    Just a quick post today as I'm off to Aintree today and didn't hear my alarm go off. Jezki was disappointing in the Champion Hurdle but I like his chances today over a trip he is bred to appreciate and I've taken 11/4. Arctic Fire ran well at Cheltenham but in that race and in the Irish Champion he was held up and was ridden to get a place behind his more illustrious stable companions. Today he's favourite and is not guaranteed to stay 2m4f - he's easy to oppose. I fear Rock on Ruby more but he's getting on a bit now and I think my selection will have too much toe for him. The main neg with Jezki is the possibility that he won't settle if they don't go fast enough, it is a concern. But Blue Heron is a front runner and Rock on Ruby won't want a dawdle either so I'm hopeful he'll be fine. It bears pointing it that if he hadn't stumbled over the last at Leopardstown he'd have beaten Arctic Fire comfortably, and he went a bit soon that day also in the hope of stretching out Hurricane Fly - I think McCoy will be much more patient this afternoon. Part of my bet has the money back (as a free bet) if your selection is second concession.

Aintree Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 11/4 and £25w @ 11/4 (won) (bog)

(-24.25)

06/04/2015

Nationals

    The Irish National isn't a race I normally have a bet in but I really like the look of the top weight today, If In Doubt. This horse ran an absolute stormer in the RSA despite not jumping particularly fluently (he never does really, but then again he is trained by Phillip Hobbs who isn't short of scratchy fencers) and with a 5lb claimer on I think he's reasonably handicapped off effectively 146. He was pretty much as close to Don Poli at the finish at Cheltenham as he was at the top of the hill and today's trip shouldn't be an issue. The Irish National usually goes to a lower weighted animal, the last winner carrying 11st or more was Commanche Court who went on to finish second in a Gold Cup, so we can appreciate that this is a tough ask for a horse with If In Doubt's load today - especially as he's still a novice. However Fairyhouse is a tight track which should favour the higher weighted contenders. For those two reasons I make him a place bet only and I'm minimum staking him because he did have a hard race at the Festival and we saw with my bet yesterday how that can be a factor as well.

    I've completed my Aintree bets with a wager on Cause of Causes. He jumps well, is a thorough stayer and the main knock on him seems to be his age, but with the modification of the fences I'm not inclined to put much store in stats that have a large sample period drawn from the time when the fences were much tougher. Aside from a below par run in the Irish National last season this will be his first run in a handicap since he and Spring Heeled pulled clear in the Kim Muir at last year's Festival and I think both horses are still well handicapped with progressive profiles and have excellent claims on Saturday. The only thing putting me off Spring Heeled is his idiot trainer.





Irish National:
If In Doubt £25pl @ 52/10 (pu)

(-159.25)


Grand National:
Godsmejudge £10w @ 25/1 and £5ew @ 20/1
Rocky Creek £10ew @ 10/1 (5pl)
Cause of Causes £10ew @ 20/1 (5pl)



05/04/2015

Fairyhouse / Ante-Post

    The Ryanair Novice Chase this afternoon looks a fascinating renewal and although Gitane Du Berlais will be hard to beat in receipt of 15lbs from her rivals (7lb sex allowance, 8lbs age) I still want to take her on at a short looking 7/4. I've backed Apache Stronghold on every one of his starts this season apart from his debut over fences but I favour Valseur Lido today. They've finished upsides each other the last two times but the Mullins horse slammed Meade's in the Drinmore over course and distance in November and I feel the track/ground today suits him more. He's also had one fewer race this season, another plus. With just the eight runners I make him a tidy each way bet at 9/2.

    Aintree starts next Thursday and I'll be in attendance that day. At this stage nothing is standing out from a betting point of view although I am pondering the Bowl with a view to opposing Silviniaco Conti and Holywell after their hard races in a brutal Gold Cup.

    I've added Rocky Creek to my National portfolio. I backed him in the race last season and he looks just about as solid as any double figure priced contender could look for the race. He runs off a 2lb lower mark this time and his win at Kempton recently clearly indicates he's a better horse twelve months on. My one problem with the horse before that contest was that he never seemed to finish his races off and there was so much to like about the way he ran all the way to the line that day. If he gets round (and he is a good jumper) it's really hard to see him out of the frame.

    Much further down the line I've had my first ante-post bet for next year's Festival. I intend to be far more judicious when it comes to that meeting in the future as I tend to get too carried away. I'll mainly be looking to eliminate single figure ante-post wagers -  losing money on the likes of Cue Card, Champagne Fever and More of That at those type prices without getting a run when they were never going to be much shorter on the day NRNB is something I have to eliminate. Long term it's too costly. My sole bet thus far is Peace and Co for the Champion Hurdle. As good as Faugheen looked last month the form looks nothing special and I feel he'll have a far harder time defending his crown than he did acquiring it. Peace and Co has never raced on decent ground but he looks the type of strong traveller who will appreciate that type of surface. Am I clutching at straws pointing out that his paternal grandsire was a top of the ground performer who mainly gets good ground flat horses? Maybe, but I think he's overpriced at 12/1.

Ryanair Novice Chase:
Valseur Lido £20ew @ 9/2 (lost)

(-134.25)

Grand National:
Godsmejudge £10w @ 25/1 and £5ew @ 20/1
Rocky Creek £10ew @ 10/1 (5pl)

-
1000 Guineas 
High Celebrity £15w @ 12/1

-
Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1