Newmarket - 26th Sept

    Up until the last few weeks I was marking this flat season down as a bit of a dud, not just from my own view as a punter but for the action overall. I thought the big races overall were sub standard and there wasn't a whole lot to look forward to. However we had a cracking weekend a fortnight ago with some excellent 2yos really coming to the fore and the action at Longchamp that Sunday really sets the scene for the Arc next week. Today's card at headquarters for me further illustrates how the 2yos have almost saved this season. The Royal Lodge, Cheveley Park and Middle Park are all well above average renewals (the latter admittedly all about the fav) and add to that little lot the best handicap of the season and we have a card to really tuck into.

    I took some 9/2 about Lumiere in the Cheveley Park earlier in the week and I haven't a whole lot to add to my thoughts about the bet that I posted on Monday. I'm pleased the ground has come right and it really bares pointing out how well she ran first time in a group race on bad tacky ground at York that would have been completely against her. I topped up at 4/1 yesterday morning and have gone in again at 7/2 at Hills with their money back as a free bet concession if your selection is second.

    The Cambridgeshire has been a good race for me and although I've gone into previous editions with stronger fancies I have a tracker horse in it and he's well over 20/1 - I'm hardly not gonna back it am I? Express Himself went into the tracker way back in April when he was a fast finishing runner-up in an ordinary handicap at Pontefract. I've backed him in all his starts since despite the fact that I normally take them off my list after a win. That victory came in a very eye catching way at Haydock in July when he managed to get over the line from Birdman despite losing three or four lengths at the start when he was very slowly away. The manner of that win was just enough to keep him in my tracker and the race today should really suit him. He's a fast finishing horse who just about stays 10f and although there isn't a whole lot of pace in this renewal with 35 runners it's difficult to imagine them going a crawl. I got 28/1 on Wednesday and have topped up at 25s, both bets each way for five places.

Cheveley Park Stakes:

Lumiere £30w @ 425/100 and £25w @ 7/2 mbs (won)

Cambridgeshire:

Express Himself £20ew @ 265/10 (lost)

(-307.82)

Ante-Post

    I've been busy adding selections to my ante-post list which seems a bit large to me at the moment but I just keep seeing attractive prices. I can't remember the last time I had a bet on a 2yo race but the Cheveley Park on Saturday looks like it's been priced up wrong to me, with a heavy flavour of recency bias. Lumiere looked a world beater first time out on the July Course back in mid summer and although she got beat fair and square in the Lowther she ran really well nevertheless and I have to think better ground at the weekend will suit her much better. She's also far less exposed than her conqueror at York and has every chance of reversing that form. 9/2 is too big.

    Things haven't gone Avenir Certain's way this season but there are excuses behind her last two runs and she is overpriced for the 'Opera on Arc day. The ground was too fast for her at Newmarket in the Falmouth (she hits the ground too hard to be totally suited by it) and she was given far far too much to do in the Jean Romanet at Deauville before storming home for third. Double figure odds are well worth taking.

    I have my fingers firmly crossed that the Champion Stakes cuts up for Vadamos and I sincerely hope Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs head over to Paris a fortnight earlier. I can't see Free Eagle making the trip with them as his shrewd trainer must surely realise he has little hope of winning the race, so I've taken some 7/1 about him for Ascot.


Cheveley Park Stakes:
Lumiere £15w @ 9/2

Prix de l'Opera:
Avenir Certain £10w @ 12/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Jack Hobbs £15w @ 10/1
New Bay £15w @ 6/1

Champion Stakes:
Vadamos £10w @ 33/1
Free Eagle £10w @ 7/1

--
Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £10w @ 33/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £15w @ 86/10

--
2000 Guineas:
Emotionless £20w @ 12/1

Ante-Post

    The racing last weekend was easily the highlight of this flat season with a number of notable performances from the likes of Treve, New Bay, Emotionless, Limato and Air Force One to name just a few. I took some 6/1 about New Bay for the Arc immediately after his win in the Prix Niel. He's in the right hands, has had a perfect French 3yo prep for the race and he pretty much confirmed he'll stay the trip as well. No question in my mind Fabre has won the big race with two or three inferior animals than his Jockey-Club winner but those creatures didn't have Treve to deal with. She was imperious in winning the Vermeille but it has to be said she hasn't had to beat a top class rival since Orfevre in 2013 and although that may well be clutching at stores I'm happy to have a couple against her given her very short odds now.

    I've already mentioned how impressed I was with Emotionless at Doncaster and although Air Force Blue was also very taking at the Curragh on Sunday I much prefer the Godolphin colt long term and I'm hoping to have a nice tank on him by May. The sky's the limit with this horse who is a gorgeous looking horse. He'll fill his frame nicely over the winter.

    In my last ante-post update I neglected to mention taking 33s about the Fabre trained Vadamos for the Champion Stakes in October. He was impressive in winning a Group 2 in Germany a week or so and although I freely admit not knowing much about what that form amounts to I was surprised to see such big odds available about him for Ascot given how effusive his trainer was about him and also how likely the race is to cut up.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Jack Hobbs £15w @ 10/1
New Bay £15w @ 6/1

Champion Stakes:
Vadamos £10w @ 33/1

--
Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £10w @ 33/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £15w @ 86/10

--
2000 Guineas:
Emotionless £20w @ 12/1

The Curragh & Longchamp - 13th Sept

    After a quiet start to the weekend from a punting point of view I have an explosion of bets today and I could badly do with a winner. Before I detail them a word about yesterday's action. Obviously most of the headlines surround the controversial bumping and booring in the St Leger and the Irish Champion but what stood out to me was the performance of Emotionless in the Champagne Stakes. He won on the bridle from a progressive type in second, the form stacks up nicely and I was very surprised to see double figures available about the horse for next year's 2000 Guineas immediately after the race. I was happy to snap up those prices.

    Anyway, onto today. The market for the Irish St Leger looks all wrong to me. The Ballydoyle colt heading it looks incredibly short. Yes, he was impressive last time out but the horse he beat that day hasn't any form for the last two years and it's plain he owes his position in the market purely down to where he's trained. The ground doesn't look soft enough at this trip for Forgotten Rules and Brown Panther is coming back from injury. Luca Cumani is having a fine season and Second Step looks way overpriced for this at around 8/1. I took 10s yesterday and have topped up since. His run behind Big Orange in the Princess of Wales's Stakes at the July meeting was franked by the winner last time out (Second Step carried a penalty that day) and he won nicely next time out in Germany. Like I said yesterday his pedigree suggests he'll improve for this trip and I expect a big run.

    Esoterique has been a revelation this season but she looks a false favourite for the Prix du Moulin. The ground today is completely different from the churned up mess the Marois was run on and a couple of her beaten rivals that day, Territories and Karakontie, look value picks here. The former's best form is all on decent ground and the latter was off the track for eight months prior to that comeback run at Deauville. Yes you have to take it on trust that he's the same horse he was last year but at 10/1 it's worth the risk.

    Treve should win the Vermeille and she's not lightly opposed but Sea Calisi was the best horse in the Yorkshire Oaks, she was disadvantaged by her position in the race relative to the conditions prevailing at York and the way the race was run and at 11/1 today she rates a decent each way bet.

EDIT: 11:40am

I've sort of messed up. Just found out that Longchamp had 25mm of rain overnight making the ground very soft. This flat season has been hit so horribly from a weather point of view. Err, my Territories bet looks a waste, Karakontie won't mind the ground too much and I'm not sure about Sea Calisi. I've added Ribbons at 5/1 in the Blandford Stakes at the Curragh. She was disappointing last time out but her form was at a decent level before then and there must be a good chance Tapestry will need this. I'm so mad I didn't check the weather in France. Poor form.

Blandford Stakes:
Ribbons £40w @ 5/1 (won)

Irish St Leger:

Second Step £40w @ 88/10 (lost)

Prix Vermeille:

Sea Calisi £20ew @ 11/1 (3rd)

Prix du Moulin

Karakontie £15ew @ 10/1 (lost)

Territories £25w @ 4/1 (nr)

Prix du Moulin/National Stakes:

Karakontie (lost) Air Force Blue £10 dbl @ 10/1 & 11/8

(-482.82)

Leger/Irish Champions Weekend

    No bets today, nothing appeals in the St Leger and whilst the Champion Stakes over at Leopardstown looks mouth watering rain means there are bound to be some high profile non-runners.

    I've taken a couple of big prices about horses in the Irish Leger and Prix du Moulin tomorrow however. In the former Second Step is overpriced at 10/1. This Cumani charge looks on the upgrade and his pedigree (by Dalakhani out of a Sadlers Wells mare) suggests he will improve further for this step up in trip. At Longchamp I've take the same odds about Karakontie. Off the track eight months after his Breeder's Cup victory his comeback run on horrible ground in the Marois at Deauville was pretty much as good as could be expected and 10/1 really under estimates his chance in this.

    I'll preview these races in more detail tomorrow.

Irish St Leger:

Second Step £15w @ 10/1

Prix du Moulin:

Karakontie £15ew @ 10/1

Prix du Moulin/National Stakes:

Karakontie/Air Force Blue £10 dbl @ 10/1 & 11/8

Doncaster - 10th Sept

    This has to be a quick one as I leave for work at half nine. Fadhayyil is the form filly in the Sceptre Stakes today and she was rightfully trading at 7/2 last night. Ladbrokes offer 5/1 this morning however with great each way terms (1/4 the odds 4 places) and she has to be backed at that price with such a good safety net. Is it 5/1 she runs to form? No. If she runs to form will four fillies beat her? I seriously doubt it.

Sceptre Stakes:
Fadhayyil £20ew @ 5/1 (4th)

(-656.83)

Doncaster - 9th Sept

    I have a couple of tracker horses running tomorrow and if memory serves it will be the first time I've ever had a couple running in the same race. The contest in question is a 7f handicap tomorrow at Doncaster. Heartbreak Hero has already made an appearance on this blog, I backed him last time out at Goodwood in a race where he lost a couple of lengths at the start before getting into contention. He looked like featuring but that effort to get on terms told on him and he faded into sixth. If this horse can just start a race with a level break I think there's a win somewhere for him and I hope it's tomorrow. He was behind one of his rivals tomorrow (Sakhee's Return) at York the time before that but covered much more ground than the winner that day and is a likelier winner of this. Akeed Champion went into my tracker when he beat yet another of my horses, Darrell Rivers, In a handicap at Newmarket a few weeks ago. In a ten runner event with the stalls stand side he was drawn widest of all and was taken to the inside from the off but eventually finished back on the outside as he was asked to go wide again by his jockey, only just scoring. He's trained by Fahey and has lots of scope but I prefer Heartbreak Hero on price grounds.

Frank Whittle Partnership Handicap:

Heartbreak Hero £40w @ 7/1 (lost)

Akeed Champion £30w @ 3/1 (lost)

(-661.83)

Haydock - 5th Sept

    Haydock is my local track and I'll be in attendance tomorrow for their best card of the summer. I've done my money on Limato in the Sprint Cup and the race does look open, the sort of sprint where any result wouldn't be that much of a surprise. That being said I do like the chances of Adaay at 7/1 and his form is very much tied in with Limato. His one poor run this season was on very fast ground in the Commonwealth Cup so take that effort out of his form profile and you have a progressive, consistent animal. I've backed Gordon Lord Byron in this the last two years but I have the same vibes about him that I had about Sole Power before the King's Stand, I just think he's on the decline now. The rest of the field look look quite ordinary to me but ordinary horses win these kind of Group 1's, I just hope Adaay has the class I think he has.

    Oasis Fantasy runs in the Old Borough Cup earlier on in the card and he's been my cliff horse this season. I maintain though that this 1m6f trip is his optimum though and I can't resist giving him one more chance. The last time he ran over this distance he was not really put in the race at all by a jockey who was retiring that week and who, it seemed to me, could not be arsed. Dettori was on at York last time out and was more positive, but he was just outstayed over two miles that day. I think he's a solid each way bet as he's been very consistent all year.

Old Borough Cup:

Oasis Fantasy £20ew @ 12/1 (lost)

Sprint Cup:

Adaay £35w @ 7/1 (lost)

Limato NR £10

(-591.83)

Haydock - 4th Sept

    Captain Bob went into my tracker when he was second in a decent handicap at York in mid July. He was held up that day and had to be switched before rattling home behind a nice type who franked the form next time out by hitting the frame in a listed race during the Ebor meeting. I backed Captain Bob in his next start at Newbury and he was well backed but the tactics were strange that day - he led almost from the off before weakening in the last furlong. He's in the 4.10 at Haydock tomorrow and I would expect him to be held again this time given that the field is bigger and there are at least two front runners amongst his opponents. I think he's a fair bet at 8/1.

Befred Handicap:
Captain Bob £40w @ 8/1 (lost)

(-506.83)