24/02/2016

Cheltenham Thoughts

    Not a whole lot to add since my last Festival update apart from starting with the each way doubles.
Nichols Canyon strikes me as an each way lock and he'll be in a few of the multis I'll be placing during the week. He's drifted in the market even with Faugheen and Arctic Fire's absense and maybe the talk of Annie Power going there has had the effect of diluting confidence. I personally think he's a more likely winner of the race than the mare and ultimately layers and most punters just seem to favour the Ricci colours - that's fine by me, it leads to better odds on some other Mullins creatures.

    Buveur D'Air has always struck as almost as big a danger to Altior in the Supreme as Min. The form of his win at Newbury continues to be boosted (I thought Big Chief Benny ran a stormer against some decent opponents at Ascot last Saturday, better than his finishing position suggests given he got tired on the ground over just short of two and a half miles.) I've had BDA in mind as one of my each way double horses (I will choose six or seven this year) and have stepped in now because I don't think 8/1 will last much longer.

    I'll post more about the other horses in my doubles list in another update at the weekend or early next week.

EDIT: 27/2, 2/3, 5/3, 8/3

Supreme Novices'
Altior £20w @ 7/1 and £25w @ 4/1 mbs

Arkle:
Sizing John £10ew @ 10/1, £20w @ 54/10,
£10w @ 4/1 NRNB (all w/o Douvan)

Ultima Handicap Chase:
Fingal Bay £10ew @ 20/1

Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £25w @ 122/10
Nichols Canyon £10ew @ 13/2 and £35w @ 5/1 both NRNB

NH Chase:
Vicente £10w @ 20/1 NRNB

Neptune:
Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

RSA:
Native River £5w @ 28/1

Champion Chase:
Felix Yonger £20ew @ 33/1 NRNB
Sire De Grugy £10ew @ 8/1 (w/o Un De Sceaux)
Sire De Grugy £10ew @ 7/1 (w/o Un De Sceaux) NRNB

JLT Novices' Chase:
Sizing John £25w @ 136/10
Bristol De Mai £40w @ 74/10

World Hurdle:
Whisper £15w @ 13/1
Windsor Park £20w @ 14/1 NRNB
Cole Harden £15w @ 4/1 (w/o Thistlecrack)

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold NR £18
Champagne West £5w @ 54/1
Valseur Lido £25w @ 13/1 NRNB
Vibrato Valtat £15w @ 16/1 and £10ew @ 12/1 both NRNB

Brown Advisory Plate:
John's Spirit £10w @ 195/10
Fingal Bay £10w @ 25/1

Triumph Hurdle:
Gibralfaro £10w @ 175/10

County Hurdle:
Desoto County £10w @ 16/1
Starchitect £10 @ 16/1 NRNB

Albert Bartlett:
Shantou Village £25w @ 116/10

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £30w @ 94/10 and £40w @ 13/2 NRNB
Vautour £10w @ 12/1 and £10w @ 8/1 NRNB
Holywell £5w @ 43/1

Any Race:
Shantou Village £10w @ 10/1

Doubles (£5ew)

(Supreme/CH) Buveur D'Air/Nichols Canyon @ 8/1 & 5/1

(Arkle(w/o Douvan)/Ryanair) Sizing John/Road to Riches @ 7/2 NRNB

(CH/County) Nichols Canyon/Starchitect @ 9/2 and 16/1 NRNB

(Ryanair/County) Road to Riches/Desoto County @ 6/1 & 14/1

(WH(w/o Thistlecrack)/County Cole Harden/Desoto County @ 4/1 and 10/1



20/02/2016

Ascot & Haydock - 20th Feb

    In my entry earlier in the week I mentioned my caution with regard to fancying Vibrato Valtat for the Ascot Chase this afternoon. Sure enough his trainer prefers tackling the race with just Silviniaco Conti and VV heads straight to the Festival (I got that info from the owner's son who responded to my mini rant on Twitter.) Anyway, I can't have the favourite nor Dynaste in this race - I think they are both on a steep decline, and at the odds prefer the Henderson pair Triolo D'Alene and Ma Filleule. They wouldn't be my most confident of selections but the race has that nice betting angle with the market skewered in favour of the two old timers. Triolo D'Alene is headed for the Grand National, where he would be of interest off 11st, and he strikes me as an underrated horse. Ma Filleule ran well in this last year and nothing in this year's renewal has the upward profile Balder Succes did (RIP) at that time.

   So, both selections above are fairly tentative - Trio has the Nash as his main target and Ma F doesn't win that often against the boys, and I've put them both in doubles with my other tentative selection today - Deputy Dan in the Rendlesham at Haydock. Now, I have a single on this horse also, but it's gone a bit wrong - last night he was trading at 6/1 with Boylesports with a handy concession...money back as a free bet if your selection is second to the SP Fav. I assumed that Reve De Sivola would be this favourite, he strikes as the most likely winner of the race, and kind of holds Deputy Dan on Long Walk form - but the market now has One Track Mind as fav. I don't get that at all. Anyway, Deputy Dan ran well at Ascot and trip and ground will suit today. Of course he shouldn't really beat Reve De Sivola getting just 8lbs for a 12 length beat up, but I don't trust the Nick Williams horse today, he's 11 years old, was poor last time out at Haydock over fances and doesn't really show his best anywhere apart from Ascot. The rest of the field looks beatable to me and although the concession bit of my bet has gone tits up I have a nice bit of value.


Rendlesham Hurdle:
Deputy Dan £20w @ 6/1 (lost)

Rendlesham/Ascot Chase:
Deputy Dan/Triolo D'Alene £10d @ 5/1 and 7/1
Deputy Dan/Ma Filleule £10d @ 5/1 and 8/1
Vibrato Valtat NR £10

(+143.51)

17/02/2016

Ante-Post

    Sad news about Faugheen missing the chance to defend his Champion Hurdle crown today and hopefully he'll be back next season. I have plenty of sympathy for connections and fans, none for anyone who backed him for the race given the price. I've learnt from experience you have to factor in a certain percentage of what I would call non-runner variance in each ante-post bet which basically translates for me as trying to avoid single figure prices. I like my budgets on the flat and this season I set out to have no more than £100 tied up ante-post in single figure priced horses before the Festival starts. I'm comfortably under this figure so added Sire de Grugy in the without the favourite market for the Queen Mother yesterday. The market looks a bit off in this race, Sire has close form ties this season with Sprinter Sacre so the price differential between the pair (2s and 8s) is wrong, and I cannot have Dodging Bullets at all. As for the Champion Hurdle now, I'd want to be against Annie Power and Arctic Fire at short odds and as well as Nichols Canyon I will consider adding Identity Thief nearer the day.

    Away from the Festival this Saturday's Ascot Chase is a fascinating one from a betting point of view with the front two in the market begging to be taken on. The last time Silviniaco Conti went to Ascot one of the horses in front of him was old friend of this blog Alfie Spinner - and this is over two and a half miles as well - well on the short side for him. Dynaste has also been below form this season and is easily passed over. I like Vibrato Valtat at this sort of trip, I think he's suffered recently from pace chasing crack two milers and so a more patient approach over further should ensure he finishes his races with a bit more gusto. I've taken some 10 on the machine about him, that's a great price but caution is the watchword considering I don't know if he's a certain runner. I also like him for the Ryanair as I've mentioned in previous posts.

EDIT: 19/2


Ascot Chase:
Vibrato Valtat £10w @ 9/1

--
Supreme Novices'
Altior £20w @ 7/1

Arkle:
Sizing John £10ew @ 10/1 (w/o Douvan)

Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £25w @ 122/10
Nichols Canyon £10ew @ 13/2 and £25w @ 5/1 both NRNB

Neptune:
Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

RSA:
Native River £5w @ 28/1

Champion Chase:
Felix Yonger £20ew @ 33/1 NRNB
Sire De Grugy £10ew @ 8/1 (w/o Un De Sceaux)

JLT Novices' Chase:
Sizing John £25w @ 136/10
Bristol De Mai £15w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £15w @ 13/1
Windsor Park £20w @ 14/1 NRNB

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold NR £18
Champagne West £5w @ 54/1
Valseur Lido £25w @ 13/1 NRNB
Vibrato Valtat £15w @ 16/1 and £10ew @ 12/1 both NRNB

Brown Advisory Plate:
John's Spirit £5w @ 25/1

Triumph Hurdle:
Gibralfaro £10w @ 175/10

County Hurdle:
Desoto County £10w @ 16/1

Albert Bartlett:
Shantou Village £25w @ 116/10

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £30w @ 94/10 and £40w @ 13/2 NRNB
Vautour £10w @ 12/1 and £10w @ 8/1 NRNB
Holywell £5w @ 43/1

Any Race:
Shantou Village £10w @ 10/1

12/02/2016

Newbury - 13th Feb

    I'm a bit underwhelmed by tomorrow's racing, not helped by Desoto County missing the Betfair Hurdle. There's not really anything to get stuck into on the card now but in an effort to get my lost ante-post money back and also because I follow the stable, I've chanced a wee bet on Agrapart. It's his first attempt in a handicap which is not my style at all but his form reads well, he'll love the ground, and he's 20/1 for five places. Why not?

Betfair Hurdle:
Desoto County NR £10
Agrapart £15ew @ 20/1 (won)

(+193.51)

07/02/2016

Cheltenham Thoughts

    EDIT: 10/2

    I don't know what's more painful, a last fence fall or your horse being caught on the line Orfevre styley. Whatever the answer, when you're in the midst of a losing streak a final fence fall by an 8/1 shot who looked home and hosed is not nice - I was numb for at least twenty minutes. However, I really try and think glass half full and a couple of my Cheltenham ante-post positions were strengthened yesterday and I'm very happy with my portfolio at present.

    At the start of the week I read rumours that Sizing John's target was up in the air and I confess I was surprised as I just assumed he'd be avoiding Douvan come March. My overriding thought on the JLT is that Killutagh Vic is the weakest fav of the week, his win last time out has been horrendously overrated because he recovered to win from a bad error at the last - and so at around 5/2 I was super keen to take him on. So with Sizing John now a possible doubt for the race I took some 12s about Bristol De Mai who impressed at Haydock late in January. Twister's horse was impressive yesterday at Sandown and he goes to Cheltenham with very solid claims. Even if De Bromhead does decide he wants to see Douvan's arse again I've taken some 10/1 (rick price) about SJ in the w/o fav Arkle market so it's all good.

    Elsewhere Peace and Co was poor in the Contender's Hurdle but I'd already mentally written off my Champion Hurdle bet but the Triumph Hurdle fav bombing out at Leopardstown was very nice news. Ivanovich Gorbatov was ridiculously impressive in December where his hurdling was Istabraq like and although I was happy with getting 25s about Giralfaro after that horse's win on that same day
the Irish horse looked next level to my eyes. He was poor yesterday however and the Triumph looks wide open. Gibralfaro goes to the Adonis at Kempton and if he wins I'll be topping up again. The Friday of the Festival looks my biggest day position wise and I cannot wait - so excited right now.




Supreme Novices'
Altior £20w @ 7/1

Arkle:
Sizing John £10ew @ 10/1 (w/o Douvan)

Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £25w @ 122/10
Nichols Canyon £10ew @ 13/2 NRNB

Neptune:
Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

RSA:
Native River £5w @ 28/1

Champion Chase:
Felix Yonger £20ew @ 33/1 NRNB

JLT Novices' Chase:
Sizing John £25w @ 136/10
Bristol De Mai £15w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £15w @ 13/1
Windsor Park £20w @ 14/1 NRNB

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold NR £18
Champagne West £5w @ 54/1
Valseur Lido £25w @ 13/1 NRNB
Vibrato Valtat £15w @ 16/1 NRNB

Brown Advisory Plate:
John's Spirit £5w @ 25/1

Triumph Hurdle:
Gibralfaro £10w @ 175/10

County Hurdle:
Desoto County £10w @ 16/1

Albert Bartlett:
Shantou Village £25w @ 116/10

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £30w @ 94/10 and £40w @ 13/2 NRNB
Vautour £10w @ 12/1 and £10w @ 8/1 NRNB
Holywell £5w @ 43/1

Any Race:
Shantou Village £10w @ 10/1



06/02/2016

Ffos Las & Leopardstown - 6th Feb

    I spend quite a lot of time in the summer watching mid week racing from the gaff tracks in the hope of snagging some tracker horses. I don't really do this in the winter, I think it's the heavy ground and the amount of time it would take up that puts me off. Anyway, I mention this because I only have two jumpers in my tracker file, and one of them came to me via a race on heavy ground at Haydock. Goodbye Dancer travelled like the best horse in this race at my local track a couple of weeks back - a handicap hurdle over just short of three miles. He was beaten by an inform Baywing who was off a very light weight that day. Both these horses run tomorrow, the latter at Sandown and the former in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las. Now, he's four pounds wrong in this limited handicap but has a 5lb claimer up top and at 14/1 is well worth an each way poke. It looks a fairly uninspiring line-up and he's proven on deep ground stays further than two and a half miles - what's not to like.

    My other bet is Valseur Lido in the Irish Gold Cup. I've always been a fan of his form lines with Apache Stronghold and feel his fall at Kempton last time might have led to a couple of points on his price here, 8/1 seems a bit too big. Road to Riches is highly respected but this is his first race in a while, connections are bound to be thinking Cheltenham and I reckon he's worth a little bit of opposition given the price. 

Welsh Champion Hurdle:
Goodbye Dancer £20ew @ 14/1 (void)

Irish Gold Cup:
Valseur Lido £15ew @ 8/1 and £15w @ 85/10 (fell)

(-171.49)