Ante-Post

    Yesterday was a bit of a kick in the teeth, two bets - both pulled up. I probably overrated Charmix quite a bit and although opposing horses unproven in conditions is normally a good idea their class has to be considered - although Yanworth did step up markedly yesterday. Another thing is I find it a lot easier to work out if a horse will stay or improve for a trip on the level as flat pedigrees are easier to read. I was more disappointed with O'Faolains Boy who should have been right there on form. I cannot understand why the trainer wouldn't have him ready for the race and her runners are to be avoided in future.

    Anyway, Festival clues abounded, both at Cheltenham and Doncaster. In the Argento Djakadam's fall probably ensures Vautour runs in the Gold Cup as his owner surely won't risk being solely represented by a horse who has fallen twice at the track. This is pleasing not just because I have Vautour as nice cover to Don Poli in the blue ribband, it also makes the Ryanair a very juicy betting race. Apache Stronghold is out now but Valseur Lido is an able substitute in my portfolio given their close form ties and I think Vibrato Valtat will improve for a step up in trip. He's been finishing legless recently chasing two milers and a more patient ride over further will see him finish his races with more gusto in my opinion.

    I was initially a tad disappointed in Shantou Village but having re-watched the race three or four times it appears he just bumped into a monster on the day. He more than likely goes for the Albert Bartlett now and I actually think he's the likeliest winner of that race. I wasn't that impressed with Barter's Hill, he looks all over a chaser to me, and under more suitable underfoot conditions make Shantou Village still good value at 10/1. I have topped up.

    Desoto County went into my tracker after his fine run last time out at Leopardstown. He was disadvantaged by the position he was put in during most of that race and looks well handicapped off that effort and has a big one in him - hopefully at Newbury, but I'll also back him at Cheltenham if he makes the trip.



Betfair Hurdle:
Desoto County £10w @ 12/1

--
Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Altior £20w @ 7/1

Champion Hurdle:

Peace and Co £25w @ 122/10

Nichols Canyon £10ew @ 13/2 NRNB

Neptune:

Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

RSA:

Native River £5w @ 28/1

Queen Mother:

Felix Yonger £20ew @ 33/1 NRNB

JLT Novices' Chase:

Sizing John £20w @ 132/10

World Hurdle:

Whisper £15w @ 13/1

Windsor Park £20w @ 14/1 NRNB

Ryanair:

Apache Stronghold NR £18

Champagne West £5w @ 54/1

Valseur Lido £25w @ 13/1 NRNB
Vibrato Valtat £10w @ 16/1 NRNB

Triumph Hurdle:

Gibralfaro £5w @ 25/1

Albert Bartlett:

Shantou Village £25w @ 116/10

Gold Cup:

Don Poli £30w @ 94/10 and £35w @ 64/10 NRNB

Vautour £10w @ 12/1 and £10w @ 8/1 NRNB

Holywell £5w @ 43/1

Any Race:

Shantou Village £10w @ 10/1

Cheltenham - 30th Jan

    On the odd occasion I take a price about a horse mid week and he or she drifts before the Saturday of the race I see it as a bad sign but not so with O'Faolains Boy tomorrow. I thought the race would cut up more than it has to be sure but with a Mullins animal at odds-on and a Grand National winner in the line-up also it stands to reason that my selection wouldn't be grabbing the headlines. As a former RSA winner (Smad Place in behind) we know the track suits and the horse loves a bit of cut. I think 10/1 tomorrow is bordering on insulting and have topped up.

    The Neptune trial later on in the card is a rip snorter of a race and as a Shantou Village ante-post Festival backer I want to see a good run but the deep ground is a worry and with favourite Yanworth not guaranteed to stay this is a race with a nice punting angle to it. Charmix has done little wrong this season, he will stay, he acts well on soft ground, his form has been boosted today by the second from his last run at Newbury - and he's a very backable price. If Shantou Village isn't at his best I wouldn't be too concerned as we are pretty certain to get better ground in six weeks - for now though I'm more concerned with getting Harry Fry's horse in the winner's enclosure as I started this season well but have gone into the red recently and would like a change in fortune please. Tomorrow's racing at both headquarters and Doncaster is top draw and hopefully will give us loads of Festival clues - I'm hoping for decent runs from Champagne West, Holywell and Vaniteux as well as the horses already mentioned. Good luck with your bets.

Argento Chase:

O'Faolains Boy £15w @ 8/1 and £15ew @ 10/1 (pu)

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:

Charmix £25w @ 8/1 and £15ew @ 13/2 (pu)

(-126.49)

Ante-Post

    A couple of years ago now I backed Many Clouds in the Reynoldstown Novices' at Ascot and Smad Place in the RSA Chase at the Festival. On both occasions my selection was beaten into second by the Rebecca Curtis trained O'Faolains Boy. This Saturday all three are entered in the Argento Chase at Cheltenham and all three are probably supposed to play bit part roles to Gold Cup fav Djakadam. Chances are that will happen but I cannot have it that Many Clouds and Smad Place are two points shorter in the market for this trail than OFB. It's true that the two aforementioned have both gone onto greater things since they bested Rebecca's charge, they have both improved. However O'Faolains Boy still has a deal of scope about him and I was particularly impressed with how he jumped at Newbury in December, at 8/1 he offers a little bit of value - conditions will be his optimum after all. Djakadam should win on all known form, but 4/11 does seem too short.


Argento Chase:
O'Faolains Boy £15w @ 8/1


--
Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Altior £20w @ 7/1

Champion Hurdle:

Peace and Co £25w @ 122/10

Nichols Canyon £10ew @ 13/2 NRNB

Neptune:

Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

RSA:

Native River £5w @ 28/1

Queen Mother:

Felix Yonger £20ew @ 33/1 NRNB

JLT Novices' Chase:

Sizing John £15w @ 13/1

World Hurdle:

Whisper £15w @ 13/1

Windsor Park £20w @ 14/1 NRNB

Ryanair:

Apache Stronghold £18w @ 35/1

Champagne West £5w @ 54/1

Valseur Lido £10w @ 14/1 NRNB

Triumph Hurdle:

Gibralfaro £5w @ 25/1

Albert Bartlett:

Shantou Village £15w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:

Don Poli £30w @ 94/10 and £15w @ 7/1 NRNB

Vautour £10w @ 12/1 and £10w @ 8/1 NRNB

Holywell £5w @ 43/1

Any Race:

Shantou Village £10w @ 10/1

Ascot - 23rd Jan

    Aside from the odd Cheltenham top up I've been inactive on the betting front in recent weeks and I feel refreshed and ready for a good year. Last year I was a big supporter of the Skelton trained Value at Risk and he was one of my main fancies for the Festival. He actually travelled and jumped well enough in the Albert Bartlett before fading around two out and it's possible he just didn't fully stay in what was a grinder of a renewal. Unfortunately his chasing career has been a horror show thus far with two falls from two appearances and so he appears back over hurdles tomorrow. The top and bottom of it is I'm backing him because he looks very well treated off 142 and with 18 runners we have very good each way terms. I also think this could be his trip given the possibility it was lack of stamina that did for him last March.

"40 Years of Keltbray" Holloway's Handicap Hurdle:

Value at Risk £20ew @ 9/1 (lost)

(-26.49)

Ante-Post

    I haven't done an AP update for a while so here goes. I've added one or two bets on horses who left a good impression over the holiday period, especially in the NRNB Championship races. My thoughts behind my Festival bets this year will come on the day - I haven't as much exposure this year and I have it in my mind that too much musing ante-post can lead to non runner angst. So less flanneling and fewer NR cash loss. Nice.

EDIT 8/1, 13/1, 16/1

Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Altior £20w @ 7/1

Champion Hurdle:

Peace and Co £25w @ 122/10
Nichols Canyon £10ew @ 13/2 NRNB

Neptune:
Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

RSA:
Native River £5w @ 28/1

Queen Mother:
Felix Yonger £20ew @ 33/1 NRNB

JLT Novices' Chase:
Sizing John £15w @ 13/1

World Hurdle:

Whisper £15w @ 13/1
Windsor Park £20w @ 14/1 NRNB

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £18w @ 35/1
Champagne West £5w @ 54/1
Valseur Lido £10w @ 14/1 NRNB

Triumph Hurdle:
Gibralfaro £5w @ 25/1

Albert Bartlett:
Shantou Village £15w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:

Don Poli £30w @ 94/10 and £15w @ 7/1 NRNB
Vautour £10w @ 12/1 and £10w @ 8/1 NRNB

Holywell £5w @ 43/1

Any Race:
Shantou Village £10w @ 10/1