Cheltenham Thoughts 2/3

First the bad news, Punchestowns has been ruled out of the Gold Cup which increases the amount of money lost on non-runners. Not that he had much of a chance anyway.

On the brighter side Riverside Theatre has been confirmed for the Ryanair and as well as that horse I have decided to back Tranquil Sea as well. I punted him in the race last year but he was very disappointing. His final prep that time had come just over two weeks before the contest in an event run on heavy ground at Leopardstown. Not ideal in hindsight. This time around he's been geared exclusively with the Ryanair in mind and at 8/1 is worth an interest considering his close form ties with Poquelin, who is half the price and pretty poor value. Riverside Theatre's participation kind of makes the bet I had on Gauvain a bit redundant so I've laid that back at a slightly shorter price.

I've decided to get involved with Sizing Europe in the Champion Chase as there are a number of horses shorter than him in the betting who don't deserve to be. Golden Silver for example, a horse who has been beaten a grand total of 75 lengths in two previous visits to the Festival, is shorter in the place market at Betfair. That just can't be right. I have a position on the race already of course but Arkle winners have a terrific record in the Queen Mother when running in the race the following year and his price can't really be ignored.

It's funny, when I had five consecutive winners earlier in the campaign I was thinking I'd take it easier at Cheltenham because I'd already pretty much guaranteed my best ever Jumps season. But so many horses jump out at you as value propositions that one can't help but tuck in. I did think long and hard about these two most recent bets but ultimately I had good positions from a price point of view having first backed Master Minded in the Autumn and Riverside before he was confirmed for the Ryanair that I could afford to really.



Arkle
Mikael D'Haguenet £5w @ 17/1
Finian's Rainbow £40w @ 47/10

Champion Hurdle
Dunguib £20w @ 21/1
Hurricane Fly £50w @ 6/1

Champion Chase
Master Minded £75w @ 4/1
Sizing Europe £20ew @ 14/1

RSA Chase
Mikael D'Haguenet £49w @ 12/1

Coral Cup
For Non Stop £35w/£20pl @ 14/1

Ryanair Chase
Tranquil Sea £45w @ 8/1
Riverside Theatre £20w @ 65/10

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1
Grand Crus £20w @ 3/1

Gold Cup
Denman £50w @ 82/10
Long Run £20w @ 66/10

£30 lost on NR's

Cheltenham Thoughts 22/2

We had some interesting Cheltenham pointers at the weekend, not least at Ascot in the Betfair Chase and in Ireland where Dunguib made his belated seasonal reappearance. The Ryanair Chase on the Thursday of the big meeting is a race I've been waiting to get stuck into as the front few in the market don't appeal at all. Poquelin and Tranquil Sea were both fancied last year and failed and I want to be against them at their current, rather skinny prices. Riverside Theatre won the Betfair Chase very nicely and is a bet for the Ryanair if he runs. He may however be supplemented for the Gold Cup so it's best to leave it at the moment. The horse that followed him home on Saturday, Gauvain, has been confirmed for the race which is great news as i took a chance by placing bets at 36 and 40 immediately after he crossed the line.

Dunguib made a pleasing return to the track and I think he has a cracking chance at placing and is no forlorn hope for first place. I'll be having a place bet to supplement the 21/1 I have in the win market nearer the meeting.

Finally, I have been mulling over a bet on Long Run for the Gold Cup. He's a horse I remember saying I wanted to be on the right side of after his Feltham win last season and having backed him in the RSA, Paddy Power and the King George it would be a bit of a blow if I left him unbacked for the Gold Cup and he went and won. His jumping has improved and there are excuses for his average runs at Cheltenham. I will monitor his price but with Somersby, Mad Max and Punchestowns all virtually guaranteed to be non-runners having been backed I have decided to lay back my bet on Pandorama otherwise I would have too many horses in the book for the race. I have gone off Pandorama since Kempes won the Irish Hennessy. That animal beat the same horses almost as impressively and so I doubt the value of the Irish form now. 

Arkle

Mikael D'Haguenet £5w  @ 17/1

Finian's Rainbow £40w @ 47/10

Champion Hurdle

Dunguib £20w @ 21/1

Hurricane Fly £50w @ 6/1

Champion Chase

Master Minded £75w @ 4/1

RSA Chase

Mikael D'Haguenet £45w @ 11/1

Coral Cup
For Non Stop £35w/£20pl @ 14/1

Ryanair Chase

Gauvain £10w @ 37/1
Riverside Theatre £20w @ 65/10

World Hurdle

Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Grand Crus £20w @ 3/1

Gold Cup

Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1

Denman £50w @ 82/10

Long Run £20w @ 66/10

£20 lost on NR's

February 19th

A cracking days racing in store at a number of tracks today. Looking forward to seeing Dunguib back in action at Gowran Park and I hope he wins without having too hard a time on it.

The best cards are at Ascot and Haydock but my only bet of the day is in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton.
Mille Chief heads the market for this and he is a horse I'm loathe to oppose as he looks an animal of some promise. However, Ronaldo Des Mottes is simply too big a price at 10/1. I'm not keen on any of the others really and their prices relative to Ronaldo gives me the angle to punt I am looking for. I think Overturn has been overrated on his run behind Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle. That race wasn't a contest I'd like to take literally from a form point of view. Silviniaco Conti has a penalty in this and a form line through Menorah via Get me out of Here suggests my selection seems to have a similar chance and yet is more than twice the price.


Ronaldo Des Mottes £50w @ 10/1 (lost)


(+1372.45)

Cheltenham Thoughts 13/2

For one reason or another yesterday was quite a bad day. The terrible events at Newbury overshadowed everything else that happened on the track and I think the course authorities were bang on abandoning the meeting.

Onto Cheltenham then. My two bets in the big novice chases ran yesterday and neither of them set the world alight. I was disappointed with Mikael D'Haguenet's performance naturally and we'll just have to see if he even runs at the Festival now. I can only hope being hampered when his stable companion fell and the resultant effort to get back into contention took more out of him on that ground than seems likely.
Finian's Rainbow put in a very average round of jumping at Warwick but I think the layers have been very premature in pushing his odds out for the Arkle. His trainer indicated before the race that they were going to hold the horse up on this occasion and it just didn't suit him. He was buzzy before the start of the race and didn't settle during it. If allowed his head in four weeks time I still see him as a huge player.

Arkle

Mikael D'Haguenet £5w  @ 17/1

Finian's Rainbow £35w @ 46/10

Champion Hurdle

Dunguib £20w @ 21/1

Hurricane Fly £50w @ 6/1

Champion Chase

Master Minded £75w @ 4/1

RSA Chase

Mikael D'Haguenet £45w @ 11/1

Coral Cup
For Non Stop £30w/£20pl @ 14/1

World Hurdle

Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Mikael D'Haguenet £5w @ 27/1

Grand Crus £20w @ 3/1

Gold Cup

Pandorama £10w @ 31/1

Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1

Denman £50w @ 82/10

£15 lost on NR's

Cheltenham Thoughts 6/2

Very disappointed that Leopardstown has been called off today as I was gagging to see Mikael D'Haguenet put his poor recent run behind him. Hopefully his trainer will still manage to get an outing into him before March.

Yesterday's Grade 1 Novice Chase was a fascinating contest that featured two contenders towards the front of the Arkle market. Captain Chris is the horse to take from the race, if not for the actual race he'll probably run in at the Festival. He made a mistake at the third last, wasn't as economical as Medermit over the final fence yet only just got beat. I think he's improved and needs a trip. Could be interesting for next year's Hennessy. Said improvement means that the Ghizao formline is slightly bogus imo. Coral were going 4s Ghizao and 9/2 Finian's Rainbow immediately after the race, a price on the latter that had to be taken, His form via Hell's Bay has worked out really well and he fits the profile of a typical Arkle winner having been a high class hurdler. Paul Nicholls has a tendancy to have his 2m novice chasers overrated by the oddsmakers and whilst I respect Ghizao's chances far more than Tatanen's a couple of years back or Tataniano (who didn't even run) last year I want to take him on.

Arkle

Mikael D'Haguenet £5w  @ 17/1

Finian's Rainbow £30w @ 9/2

Champion Hurdle

Dunguib £20w @ 21/1

Hurricane Fly £40w @ 61/10

Champion Chase

Master Minded £75w @ 4/1

RSA Chase

Mikael D'Haguenet £45w @ 11/1

Coral Cup
For Non Stop £7w @ 14/1

World Hurdle

Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Mikael D'Haguenet £5w @ 27/1

Grand Crus £20w @ 3/1

Gold Cup

Pandorama £10w @ 31/1

Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1

Denman £50w @ 82/10

£15 lost on NR's

Cheltenham Thoughts 31/1

I have backed Grand Crus for the World Hurdle at 3s. He put in a stunning performance in the Cleeve Hurdle on Saturday and must rate a major threat to Big Bucks. He travels extremely well also so will probably go very short in-running on the day so I may be able to overbet him for the race and then lay some back at really short odds. A tactic I like to use on occasion. Another horse that travels like a dream is Hurricane Fly, an animal I was unfortunate enough to back last year in the Champion Hurdle when he didn't turn up. He's drifted a tad the last couple of days on Betfair and I've taken some 6/1 and 13/2. Pretty sure he'll show up but given he's missed two Festivals it's not a surprise to see his odds fluctuating. I don't oppose Binocular lightly but if you look at last year's renewal McCoy went for him as they entered the straight and I just feel that with the engine he has Hurricane Fly would still have been travelling nicely at that point. The placed horses have not advertised the form too brightly either.

In a couple of months we'll be well into the Festival and I for one can't wait. I'll be attending on the Thursday. I'm having the best Jumps season I've ever had but historically I do better outside of the Festival. It's so competitive that winner finding is harder than at other times. My portfolio at the moment:

Cheltenham Festival:

Arkle

Mikael D'Haguenet £5w  @ 17/1

Champion Hurdle

Dunguib £20w @ 21/1

Hurricane Fly £30w @ 62/10

Champion Chase

Master Minded £75w @ 4/1

RSA Chase

Mikael D'Haguenet £40w @ 10/1

World Hurdle

Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Mikael D'Haguenet £5w @ 27/1

Grand Crus £20w @ 3/1

Gold Cup

Pandorama £10w @ 31/1

Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1

Denman £30w @ 85/10

£15 lost on NR's

The only real positives out of that list are the prices I have about Master Minded in the Queen Mother and Pandorama in the Gold Cup (even if the latter is only for a five spot). Over the next few weeks I'm hoping Dunguib puts in a positive performance in the Irish Champion on Sunday and that Mr Mullins gets another run into Mikael D'Haguenet. 

Somersby should be running shortly as well and he's a horse I like a lot. I'll be backing him if he runs in the Ryanair. Long Run and Diamond Harry are horses that have been big winners for me this season but I'll be against both of them in the Gold Cup based on their Cheltenham form and I wouldn't put anyone off a bet on Imperial Commander at 4/1. I'll probably back him on the day unless he's too short.

I have no real opinion on the novice hurdles or the Arkle and I'll be studying the handicaps as the build up continues.

Cheltenham - Jan 29th

The Cotswold Chase at headquarters this Saturday looked a nice betting race earlier in the week when Time for Rupert, a novice, was made a short priced favourite with Punchestowns available at a rather mouth watering 4.1 on Betfair. As usual when betting on the machine I tend to dip my toe in rather than have my normal bet on just in case a drift occurs. It's something I should cut out really.
So, when the favourite was pulled out on Thursday I was left with a sorry looking £30 at the aforesaid price. I've topped that up slightly to give me a more respectable bet and I'm hoping for a good performance both for the bet to be landed and for future races as Henderson's animal is a racehorse I've always held in the highest regard.

Punchestowns £50w @ 5/2 (lost)


(+1422.45)

Cheltenham Thoughts 18/1

In a couple of months we'll be well into the Festival and I for one can't wait. I'll be attending on the Wednesday. I'm having the best Jumps season I've ever had but historically I do better outside of the Festival. It's so competitive that winner finding is harder than at other times. My portfolio at the moment:

Cheltenham Festival:

Arkle
Mikael D'Haguenet £5w  @ 17/1

Champion Hurdle

Dunguib £20w @ 21/1

Champion Chase

Master Minded £75w @ 4/1

RSA Chase

Mikael D'Haguenet £30w @ 92/10

World Hurdle

Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Reve De Sivola £5pl @ 12/1

Mikael D'Haguenet £5w @ 27/1

Gold Cup

Somersby £5w @ 20/1

Pandorama £10w @ 31/1

Mad Max £5w @ 77/1

Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1

Denman £30w @ 85/10

The only real positives out of that list are the prices I have about Master Minded in the Queen Mother and Pandorama in the Gold Cup (even if the latter is only for a five spot). Over the next few weeks I'm hoping Dunguib puts in a positive performance in the Irish Champion on Sunday and that Mr Mullins gets another run into Mikael D'Haguenet. 

Somersby should be running shortly as well and he's a horse I like a lot. I'll be backing him if he runs in the Ryanair. Long Run and Diamond Harry are horses that have been big winners for me this season but I'll be against both of them in the Gold Cup based on their Cheltenham form and I wouldn't put anyone off a bet on Imperial Commander at 4/1. I'll probably back him on the day unless he's too short.

I have no real opinion on the novice hurdles or the Arkle and I'll be studying the handicaps as the build up continues.

Kempton - Jan 15th

Two months to the Festival and to whet our appetite we have a cracking card at Kempton. It features two Grade 1's held over from Boxing Day and some other interesting races in amongst nine contests.
The King George revolves, as ever, around Kauto Star and I already have positions in this race. Unfortunately Sizing Europe isn't coming over now so I'm left with an ante-post bet on Long Run. A bet I have since topped up. I'm hopeful rather than confident to be honest although I do have a sneaky feeling that Kauto may have had enough and is vulnerable. I still think Long Run is capable of a huge run if he can jump more efficiently and he remains the main challenger to the favourite.

James De Vassy runs in the hot looking Lanzarote Hurdle. This is a horse I seem to have backed a lot over the last couple of seasons and he must have a chance (if he can manage to put a poor run behind him at Haydock) and run up to the sort of form he showed at Cheltenham last season in the Coral Cup and also in the Greatwood.
At Haydock he was well up with the pace and seemed to get tired in the latter part of the race. They went a fair old clip that day and as it was his first run of the season I think we can forgive him. It's a hot looking race with plenty of unexposed types so it's a bit of a bet in the dark and for that reason I've backed him in the place market as well. After the Hennessy Daryl Jacob nominated the horse as his one to follow for the rest of the season. That's some commendation given the other horses he rides for Nick Williams.

Sizing Europe £20ew @ 16/1 (NR)
Long Run £50w @ 13/2 (won)

James De Vassy £40w @ 125/10 £20pl @ 5/2 (won)




(+1472.45)

Ante-Post Update

After three straight winners things are on the up for me at the moment but after twenty odd years punting I'm always aware a downturn could be just round the corner. This realism is illustrated by my current ante-post portfolio which is looking a bit iffy at the moment with Mikael D'Haguenet running very poorly the other day at Leopardstown, Punchestowns getting chinned on his seasons reappearance and Sizing Europe apparently a doubtful runner in the King George as his trainer isn't keen on making two trips with him in such a short space of time after the race was abandoned on Boxing Day.

King George

Long Run £30w @ 6/1

Sizing Europe £20ew @ 16/1

-----------

Cheltenham Festival:

Arkle
Mikael D'Haguenet £5w  @ 17/1

Champion Hurdle

Dunguib £20w @ 21/1

Champion Chase

Master Minded £60w @ 44/10

RSA Chase

Mikael D'Haguenet £30w @ 92/10

World Hurdle

Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Reve De Sivola £5pl @ 12/1

Gold Cup

Somersby £5w @ 20/1

Pandorama £5w @ 47/1

Mad Max £5w @ 77/1

Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1

Denman £30w @ 85/10


-----------------------------------

2000 Guineas
Wootton Bassett  £5w @ 18/1