Cheltenham - 14th Nov

    I spent a good hour looking at video form for Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup yesterday evening and came to the conclusion that Colour Squadron was well worth a bet at around 14/1 (17 on the machine.) He's a horse that is seen to best effect in a big field with a fast pace, conditions that mean he hasn't time to think about it like he did on his seasonal debut the other week. Unfortunately he was pulled out earlier on today when final decs were made and instead runs in a Novice event tomorrow.

    He dominates the market at around 9/4 but with only seven runners I think he's well worth taking on and I will do so with one of his stable companions. I'm a sucker for a Phillip Hobbs chaser and have had good days and bad with the likes of Menorah, Wishfull Thinking and Captain Chris in recent times, and I have backed Fingal Bay for the Hennessy later this month (to be expanded upon in my next Ante-Post entry.)

    Champagne West at this stage of his career looks every bit as promising as those named did and I can't resist a bit of 4/1 about him in what looks a really nice race. As well as Colour Squadron, Dell' Arca also trades shorter in the market for this and the only reason I can find for that is the Pipe's stable excellent record at this meeting. I'm surprised this horse is even being tried over fences as he's very much flat bred. I like Splash of Ginge as a potential chaser but he carries a meaty penalty and ultimately despite this being his debut over fences I think 4s is quite a tidy price.

Steel Plate and Sections Novices' Chase:
Champagne West £40w @ 4/1 (won)

(+10)

Navan - 9th Nov

    The Mouse Morris trained Baily Green looks overpriced at 8/1 with Ladbrokes for the Fortia Chase over two miles at Navan tomorrow. It's a tricky event with most of the line-up having a question mark or two against there names but the magic sign have this wrong with Days Hotel (on the wane) and Special Tiara (good ground animal) both unjustifiably shorter in the market than the selection. Baily Green has some really nice bits of form, particularly when running Sizing Europe close at Gowran Park at the start of last season and when placing in the Arkle and is a good jumper in the main. He is simply too big a price for this race.

Fortia Chase:
Baily Green £40w @ 8/1 (lost)

(-150)

Wincanton - 8th Nov

    Nick Williams has a couple out tomorrow in the two big races at Wincanton, one of them an old favourite and one more a new one. Alfie Spinner runs again in the Badger Ales Trophy, a race he was second in last season to a rampantly well handicapped Standing Ovation. That horse re-opposes again and has already beaten Alfie when they both made their seasonal debuts at Cheltenham last month but Alfie is slightly better off at the weights and is still in my opinion off a winning mark (127). I backed him three or four times last season and he always seemed to find a good one to beat him (Mendip Express stands out) but he's consistent and jumps very well in the main. I think 14/1 is very fair.

    I'm also backing Fox Norton in the Elite Hurdle. I think this race has a great betting shape with the front two in the market both very opposable at relatively short odds. Rock on Ruby has been a high class hurdler in the past but he's nearly ten years old now and giving a shedload of weight away in this. Irving is a very nice prospect but is incredibly short given both his level of form and record of his trainer's horses first time out this season. He beat the selection's stable companion Amore Alato five lengths off level weights in the Dovecote at Kempton last February and it's clear to anyone who follows Nick's stable that Fox Norton and Le Rocher were both well ahead of that horse in the yards pecking order last season. Fox Norton was a tad disappointing last back end in a Grade 1 at Aintree but he hadn't run since the turn of the year and that's always a red flag for novices going into the big spring Festivals and he was much better in a hotter looking event at Punchestown in the following month when only Abbyssial and Apache Stronghold could best him. It's a tough assignment tomorrow but the 21 on Betfair available as I type this is bordering on insulting.

Badger Ales Trophy:
Alfie Spinner £25w @ 14/1 (3rd)

Elite Hurdle:
Fox Norton £25w @ 20/1 (lost)

Both the above in a £10ew dbl, each at 14/1

(-110)

Ascot - 1st Nov

    The most interesting race being run tomorrow is the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby and naturally I hope one of my Gold Cup fancies, Taquin du Seuil, is able to put in a good round. However I don't see him as betting material with Silviniaco Conti being particularly tough at flat tracks.

    My one bet is at Ascot where I took 12/1 earlier on about Gevrey Chambertin in the big handicap at 3.35. This horse really impressed when winning the fixed brush race at Haydock on Betfair Chase day last year and although things didn't go his way in two subsequent starts over fences that season I think there were excuses on both occasions and he has enough talent and jumping ability to go close here off a handy looking mark of 139. First of all in his first ever start over fences he was stuck right in the deep end in the Reynoldstown at Ascot and actually jumped really well but was asked too much a question with an overly attacking ride and ran out of gas quickstyle. He ran next in the RSA at the Festival, a very tough assignment so early in his chasing career, and things didn't pan out at all in a rough race. He's race fit after an outing in a small field event early last month and I think if he's ridden sensibly he will be very competitive. It bares pointing out that he does jump well and his win at Haydock demonstrated that he has a considerable engine. Things need to go right for him but at the price he's well worth chancing.

United House Gold Cup:
Gevrey Chambertin £40w @ 12/1 (lost)

Ante-Post

    I enjoyed yesterdays jumps cards at Chepstow and Aintree and feel attuned to the winter game now after a terrific summer.

    From a betting point of view I always take it easy these opening weeks but I'm always studying the ante-post lists with a view to taking a position and I have added a horse to the bets placed for Cheltenham just after the end of the last Festival.

    Josses Hill was the animal who made the most impression on me with a view to future Festivals last March and I backed him for the 2015 Arkle as soon as the market for the race appeared. If you visit Youtube and watch a re-run of the 2011 Supreme Novices' and fast forward it to just before the last one can see Al Ferof, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card almost in a line and it is incredibly noticeable just how much bigger Sprinter Sacre is across the shoulder than his rivals and he struck me then as much the best chasing prospect of the four. This past March's renewal of the Supreme didn't really produce a similar clue from a physical point of view but I did notice during the race just how big Josses Hill was at most of his hurdles. "Skying" hurdles is just not that energy efficient and he did well to finish as close as he did. All being well I expect Josses Hill to be a leading candidate for the Arkle come March.

    The other horse who most caught my eye that Tuesday in March was Champagne Fever who jumped like a stag when just getting touched off in his Arkle. He's bred to be a staying chaser however and the 20/1 I saw about him for next year's Gold Cup was just too big to pass up. At this stage it looks a wide open renewal and there are one or two candidates towards the front of the market who are way too short even at double figure prices - Silviniaco Conti looks a pure flat track horse to my eyes and Holywell, whilst progressive, is too short, especially compared to his stable companion Taquin Du Seuil who has arguably achieved more. I actually noted on here how impressed I was with that horse's jumping and general attitude when he beat Oscar Whiskey in a novice event at the Paddy Power meeting last November but never backed him for the Festival as I had ground concerns. At this stage I think he's the best value in the race.

    My other wager, recently placed, is King's Palace at 20/1 for the RSA. His trainer has confirmed he will be 3m chasing this season and I expect those odds to come tumbling down as the horse wins a string of small field events from the front. I thought he was prepared terribly for the Albert Bartlett last season in not having a prep for the race in the new year (that's always bad juju, especially for novices) and then being asked to chase a fast pace-something that was never going to end well given his freshness. We've seen David Pipe send shorties to the Festival in novice events without adequate preps in the past only to come unstuck and I have to think he's learned his lesson. We'll see

Arkle Trophy:
Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £15w @ 20/1

Gold Cup
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £10w @ 26/1

   

Ascot - 18th October

    I posted my thoughts on Champions Day earlier in the week and nothing has changed since. Ascot has continued to attract rain and the ground will be very testing tomorrow, conditions that will suit Ruler of the World and Gordon Lord Byron. As ever I topped up my positions once final decs were made.

    I've had a very good flat season, the themes of which have been my increased use of video form study, particularly in lower grade races than I usually got involved with in the past, and also my cutting down on backing bigger, double figure priced horses in conditions events - bets that have been death for me in the past. The two wagers I have tomorrow will be my final bets on the level and I'm hoping my good run can continue when I finally get involved in some Jumping.

British Champions Sprint Stakes:
Gordon Lord Byron £40w @ 68/10 (won)

Champion Stakes:
Ruler of the World £50w @ 8/1 (lost)

(+1727.2)

Champions Day

    The finale to the domestic flat season this Saturday at Ascot is surrounded by doom and gloom at the moment with horses either retiring or being pulled from possible engagements because of ground concerns. The track ate 25mm of rain last night and I went from being lukewarm about the meeting with the Jumps just round the corner and Chasers & Hurdlers on my bedside table to instinctively knowing that this rain would present a betting opportunity or two.

    Last year half a length separated Cirrus des Aigles and Ruler of the World as they finished second and third in the Champion Stakes. At the time of writing they are priced at 6/4 and 8/1 respectively, a ridiculous price differential. CDA is solid for the race and conditions will naturally suit him and to be fair he is nowhere near the worst value in the market (Free Eagle) but 6/4 is short enough for a horse of his age and like last season I expect Ruler of the World to relish ground conditions and be very competitive.

    Gordon Lord Byron is a horse I've mentioned loads of times on this blog and after a good run on fast ground at Haydock in Spetember he ran well again in the Foret on Arc day. Like last season he heads to Ascot with the ground coming right for him but whereas he was somewhat strangely asked to contest the QEII over a mile then, now he runs in the sprint race over 6f and I expect him to reverse form with his Sprint Cup conqueror running over much easier underfoot conditions. At 7/1 he is way overpriced.

British Champions Sprint Stakes:
Gordon Lord Byron £25w @ 7/1

Champion Stakes:
Ruler of the World £25w @ 8/1

Newmarket - 11th October

    Just a tiddler of a bet today. Mubaraza has a couple of really nice bits of form from early in the season when he ran well against Angel Gabrial a couple of times, including in the Chester Cup - a race that has worked out very well. He runs in the Cesarewitch today and is overpriced at 40/1. He trades at those odds primarily because his only run since May was in the trial for this contest when he was stone last. Not a positive obviously but I have to think if there was anything wrong with him physically his shrewd trainer would have picked it up and he wouldn't be running today. I've put him in an each way double with American Hope who runs in the very valuable mile handicap on Champions Day next week.

Cesarewitch/Balmoral Handicaps:
Mubaraza(lost)/American Hope £10ew dbl @ 40/1(6pl) and 11/1

(+1505.2)

Sunday - 5th October

    Unfortunately whilst editing my post from earlier today to reflect the result of the big race in Paris I somehow lost it. I can't understand how a simple roll of the mouse can do this, especially when I'm editing and the original work has been saved. This is the second time this flat season I've had this issue.

    For the record I managed to come out level on the race with Flintshire placing. My bets on the race had been posted before as they were placed ante-post, aside from the odd top-up earlier in the week.

(+1525.2)

Ascot - 4th Oct

    Just a quick entry today as I'm posting from my computer at work and keep getting interrupted. I've mentioned Mange All a couple of times here since he went into my tracker with his powerful winning effort at Ascot on King George day. The horse he surged past that day, American Hope, runs in a valuable handicap on the same track today over a shorter trip and I think he's worth a bet at around 8/1. Since that run he had a rather unfortunate outing at Goodwood when he was given a coffin draw and never got into it. I'm always prepared to forgive a horse a poor effort on that track and he has plenty going for him today. The 7f will suit, he's up against a fair few 6f beasts and I'm hoping his tendancy to sweat up will be nullified today given the drop in temperatures as we enter into Autumn.

Totepool Challenge Cup:
American Hope £25w @ 8/1 and £15ew @ 15/2 (Non-Runner)

(+1511.45)