King George Bet

Finally sorted my bet out of Barbers Shop but i've decided to leave Albertas Run alone

Barbers Shop £20win @ 24/1 £10pl @ 7/2

I've also had a look at the market without Kauto Star and like Madison Du Berlais at 9/2. He ran below form last time out behind Kauto Star and Imperial Commander but traditionally needs his first run of the year and I think with the latter being better going left handed is the main danger to the favourite. I have also had a sneaky tenner on him in the outright market just in case Kauto is on the downgrade.

Madison Du Berlais £30win @ 9/2 W/O Fav £10win @ 12/1 outright

King George

Kauto Star goes for a fourth King George Chase on Boxing Day but he has a lot of miles on the clock and for me he could be vulnerable this year. That said he can obviously win this running up to a stone below his very best and it's more the Gold Cup I can't see him winning.

An odds-on shot and a second favourite who isn't as good going right handed equals mucho each way value further down the list and i'm gonna have win and place bets on Barbers Shop and Albertas Run. Both will be ideally suited by the distance/track and I see at least one of them making the frame.

I haven't sorted my bets out yet and will post them as soon as they are made.

Hennessy

Fascinating race today at Newbury and I really like Denman and Killyglen. The former everyone knows about and although he's running off 174 today I still thnk he may be well handicapped (Imperial Commander has been put up to the same mark after the Betfair Chase yesterday) and for me he's a backable price because of his much publicised issues last year.
Killyglen is in my ten to follow list this year and I think he ran a smashing race first time up over an inadequate 2 and a half miles, the form of which has worked out quite well.
Obviously it's a really competitive race and there are some nicely weighted horses trading at tempting prices like Gone to Lunch, Nenuphar Collonges and My Will but i'll stick with the two selections. I think Barbers Shop, Cappa Bleu and What a Friend are poor value and make the race from a betting angle.

Denman £25win @ 47/10
Killyglen £20win @ 9/1

Haydock - Betfair Chase Day

I'm going to Haydock today and already have a position on Kauto Star. Worries about the ground and the fact that he tipped up in this race a year ago meant he was trading at 2.28 on Betfair yesterday. I took that for £75 and expect him to be odds-on as the money comes in for what is a very public horse. I intend to lay off £35 at around 1.9 if possible. I think the fact that he comes here fresh as opposed to running at Down Royal like last year is the key thing in making him a bet today. He has a huge amount in hand from a form point of view and should be odds-on. Notre Pere is a horse I like but not over 3 miles on a tight track. I consider Madison Du Berlais to be the main danger and may back him on course.

Diamond Harry is also a horse I will be backing on the track in the handicap hurdle.

Cheltenham - Open Meeting

The first big Jumps fixture of the season and I have found a bet in the big race. I think i'm gonna have a sneaky each way on Tartak - and i'll be taking the 16s with Paddy Power given the concession they are running (they will refund your stake if one of the Paul Nicholls trained runners wins) rather than the 18s available generally. He ran really well in the Arkle considering he was squeezed out at a time when he was travelling nicely. The trip was on the short side as well that day. I think we're getting a nice price because of his poor run at Aintree but i'm always willing to forgive the odd off day.

On sunday I have already backed James De Vassey in the Greatwood. I've always mulled over the idea of following a stable in the winter game to try and get a better handle on form (flat racing always being my main thing) but i've never quite found the right trainer. I didn't want someone either at the top of the tree or someone who was getting on a bit (toyed with the idea of following Ferdy Murphy a few years ago but felt he was too old) and last year I plumped for Nick Williams as a trainer with a lot of potential and someone who seemed to be getting better and better horses each year. I've already backed Diamond Harry for the RSA Chase at the Festival and James De Vassey strikes me as a sporting bet in what is obviously a very competitive handicap hurdle.

Tartak £25w £15pl @ 16/1 in the Paddy Power.
James De Vassey £20win £10pl @ 10/1 in the Greatwood.

Breeders Cup

I think I may chance Rip Van Winkle this evening at Santa Anita. I'm not sure about O'Brien's ability to recognise when a horse has gone but I do trust him to get a horse who's had the sort of problem's Rip has had to the track and ready to run for his life. I've seen a few of Zenyatta's races on Youtube and she does look top class, but how good are the American fillies she's beat? Ability wise it's more likely she's on a Bank's Hill kind of level (late120's) than a Zarkava (early 130's) and ultimately even if she is in the latter's league a top form RVW would likely beat her. I'd have liked him to have been more impressive at Ascot but I guess the trainer left a bit to work on.

I'm not interested in backing him at British prices but he is a bet at 3/1 or above on the American tote. I won't know the price until after the race so:

£60win @ 3/1 or
£70win @ better than 3s.

My internet at home is down at the moment (posting from work) so will update when I can including summing up this flat season. I will keep the blog going during the Jumps.

Arc

I was so worked up for the Arc because much was riding on ith that I forgot to posts my bets before the race. Didn't help that I was working I suppose. Anyway, i'd already mentioned that I had Fame and Glory so it's not an after-timing post.

Fame and Glory £150win @ 9/1
Cavalryman £25win @ 14/1
Stacelita £35win @ 7/1
Youmzain £30place @ 11/2

Champions Day

Bit late for this as they're going down to the start for the Champion Stakes but I have bets in a couple of races.

First off I have Never on Sunday and Fame and Glory in the Champion and then Darley Sun and Fair Along in the Cesarewitch. No time to explain my resons really apart from to say that Never on Sunday ran a cracker at Royal Ascot and that I think this course will suit him. The O'Brien trained favourite is pretty much a bit of cover as I backed the French colt before the latter was declared for the race.

In the Ces i've always had a soft spot for Fair Along and Darley Sun stands out a mile on the weights. Bad stats means he's available at a backable price.

Never on Sunday £25win £15 Pl @ 9/1
Fame and Glory £40win @ 7/4

Fair Along £20ew @16/1
Darley Sun £25win @ 7/1

PS - I forgot to post my Arc bets - they're to follow.

Cambrideshire

This weekend is my favourite of the whole flat season and as well as having a few bets lined up for the Arc I also have one for Newmarket's big handicap tomorrow.

Sirvino was most impressive when winning the John Smith's at York in June and has been kept fresh for this by his trainer. I always look for a horse that's won over a mile and a quarter for this 9f race over the Rowley Mile and my fancy qualifies on that score and hopefully can follow up like Pasternak did a few years back also at around 10/1. The second at York, who I backed, has run well in a couple of Group races since and overall the form has a solid look to it.

Sirvino £50win @ 105/10

QE11

Short notice this but I did suspect that Delegator may drift to a backable price for this and i'm correct. This morning they were going 8/13 Rip Van Winkle and 9/4 Delegator at Corals and those prices looked the most accurate to me. The Godolphin animal is over 3/1 at Betfair now and he has to be backed at this price.

Delegator £50win @ 41/10