Hennessy Gold Cup

I've already posted my thoughts on this race. Ten days ago or so I wrote::

Diamond Harry is a horse I've mentioned a lot of here and he has to be backed for the Hennessy in a couple of weeks. He races off a mark in the early 150s and whilst I love Denman to bits Nick Willimas star animal is incredibly well handicapped even if he will be a few pounds out of the handicap. I can't see the tank giving him almost two stone. Pandorama is also a second season chaser with scope who must go close under 10st. There are a lot of horses in this race who are either too slow, or too past it to be contenders and for me it is possible to narrow it down to three or four live contenders - one of which is Denman of course.

Nothing has changed and I have also backed Pandorama, an animal who must be respected off 10st given how his form worked out last year with Weapon's Amnesty. Weird Al and if course Denman are my idea of the dangers but for me are unbackable at current prices. Indeed the latter makes the race from a punting point of view as he has an awful lot on his plate compared to when he won his other Hennessy's. There are a number of other animals in the race like Neptune Collonges, Taranis and Madison du Berlais who totally do not fit the profile of a live contender given that this race usually goes to a promising young chaser. And Burton Port looks very flattered by his run in the RSA.

Diamond Harry £60w @ 8/1 (won)

Pandorama £30w @ 9/1 (pu)


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Haydock - Nov 20th

A good days racing with nice cards at Ascot and Haydock. At the former Zaynar and Master Minded, two animals I've backed ante-post for the Festival, have their season openers and whilst I'll be punting neither I'm hoping for good displays naturally.

It's to my local track where the betting action is and first off we have James de Vassy, a horse from the Nick Williams stable who I followed closely last year. He was placed in the Greatwood and Coral Cup at Cheltenham and although this is a tough race with a particulary well-in favourite who won at the Open meeting last week it certainly isn't as tough as a Festival handicap. My selection is a hurdler who looks like a chaser and should be up to carrying his fairly big weight.

In the Betfair Chase I was originally keen to back Nacarat at a big price but I don't really think he's up to beating Imperial Commander so instead I have laid What a Friend who is criminally short. This horse for me is the most overrated chaser is training. Two Grade 1 wins last season don't tell the story as he was gifted both for one reason or another. On ratings he is no better than Nacarat or Planet of Sound and yet is half the price and more of both of those creatures.


James de Vassy £40w @ 64/10 (lost)
What a Friend Laid @ 7/2 for £40 (Liability £140) (lost)


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Ante-Post Update

Time for an update after a rather poor Open meeting. Long Run didn't do his chances in the King George a lot of good with  a disappointing run in the Paddy Power. Diamond Harry is a horse I've mentioned a lot of here and he has to be backed for the Hennessy in a couple of weeks. He races off a mark in the early 150s and whilst I love Denman to bits Nick Willimas star animal is incredibly well handicapped even if he will be a few pounds out of the handicap. I can't see the tank giving him almost two stone. Pandorama is also a second season chaser with scope who must go close under 10st. There are a lot of horses in this race who are either too slow, or too past it to be contenders and for me it is possible to narrow it down to three or four live contenders - one of which is Denman of course.


Hennessy
Diamond Harry £30w @ 76/10
Pandorama £10w @ 9/1


King George
Long Run £10w @ 11/2
Sizing Europe £20ew @ 16/1

Cheltenham Festival:

Champion Chase
Master Minded £40w @ 11/2

RSA
Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 9/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1
Mad Max £8w @ 77/1
Punchestowns £7w @ 25/1

Open Meeting - Day 3

Great card today at Cheltenham and I have identified three wagers. In the 2m chase I can't understand why Tataniano is favourite over Forpadytheplasterer when the latter gets 5lbs from him. The Nicholls horse looks a tad overrated to me and I think he had a big freshness advantage over his field (didn't run at the Festival) when winning at Aintree in April.

The big race of the day is the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle and I really like Get Me Out of Here for this. He was an unlucky second in the Supreme last March when Menorah kind of barged into him just when my selection was getting going and he's a horse with a lot more scope than his rivals today. I'm gonna forgive him his poor run first time out and put it down to needing the race. He's a big strapping chaser type who will carry the weight today with minimum fuss.

As a follower of the stable I have to be with For Non Stop in the other hurdle race over 2m5f. Nick Williams charge absolutely dotted up first time out running off 112 at Chepstow and you have to think he's going to end up being a 140+ animal under this shrewdest of trainers.

Forpadytheplasterer £30w @ 7/4 (lost)

Get Me Out of Here £40w @ 13/2 (lost) 

For Non Stop £40w @ 11/2 (lost)


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Open Meeting - Day 2

I've already posted my thoughts on this race already and nothing has changed. Was a bit worried about really soft ground  for Mad Max but that isn't an issue really. The sponsors are going 1/4 the odds for 5 places which is really worth tucking into. This really is a fantastic renewal and I see it as a race between Long Run and Mad Max.


Long Run £30w @ 36/10 (lost)
Mad Max £10w @ 12/1 and £15ew @ 8/1 (4th)


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Ante-Post Update

I'm posting this having just watched Kauto Star land the big race in Northern Ireland where Sizing Europe ran him to a couple of lengths or so despite not looking totally at home over the fences and not really settling brilliantly either. Much as I respect the great horse I do think he's on the decline now and I have now backed Sizing Europe and Long Run against him when he tries for a fifth King George on Boxing Day.


Paddy Power
Long Run £10w @ 44/10
Mad Max £10w @ 12/1


King George
Long Run £10w @ 11/2
Sizing Europe £20ew @ 16/1

Cheltenham Festival:

Champion Chase
Master Minded £40w @ 11/2

RSA
Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 9/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1
Mad Max £8w @ 77/1
Punchestowns £5w @ 23/1

Paddy Power - early thoughts.

The weights came out for Jumping's first really big contest yesterday and a couple of horses I've backed already for the King George and the Gold Cup are entered up and I think they're both backable for this race as well. If Long Run is going to trouble Kauto Star at Kempton then he must surely go close in this off a mark in the 150s. I backed him before the weights came out and will top up on the day. Mad Max was running a stormer in the Arkle before making a mistake at the notorious second last and followed up with a nice run at Aintree ( where his main rival ran below par admittedly) and is a top prospect for big honours this year and in the future. He's a massive horse so a big weight won't bother him but his best form is on ground better than soft. Just a small bet has been placed at 12s just in case.

Long Run £10w @ 44/10
Mad Max £10w @ 12/1

Exeter - 2nd Nov

The NH season is really upon us now and today I have my first bet of the season in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter. Cornas is handled by Nick Williams, a trainer I have followed the last couple of years. The stable is under a big cloud at the moment as their very promising novice hurdler from last year, Me Voici, had a heart attack a week or so ago and is no longer with us. It's a big blow for a small yard to lose such a promising animal and I'm hoping the likes of Diamond Harry, Cornas and James De Vassy can have fine seasons, and they can unearth a couple of future stars to at least in part gain a slice of compensation. My thoughts are with them.
Cornas is a high class handicapper who has a great record at the track having won at Exeter in the past and been placed in this race also. He's had a run already this season and at 4/1 should go well in this race today. Somersby is the main danger to my selection and he's an animal I like a lot. I've backed him for the Cheltenham Gold Cup but hope he needs the run today naturally.

Cornas £40w @ 4/1 (lost)

Ante-Post Update

With the Flat pretty much done I thought I'd update the blog with my current ante-post positions over the Jumps. I've already noted down a few bets which have since been added to. I have backed Long Run for the King George as I believe Kauto Star is now on the decline and is worth taking on. I also have a double going on him after Workforce won in Paris earlier in the month but I can't really include it here as the bet was placed    after I had posted my Arc bets.

As to the Festival, I can't see Kauto or Denman being involved in the Gold Cup shake up this time which means the market has a lopsided feel to it. I have therefore had a few bob on a variety of big priced animals in the hope that at least two of them line-up for the race at much shorter odds and I can play again - probably covering on Imperial Commander.

Mikael D'Haguenet looked a very special horse when winning the Baring Bingham a couple of years back and I've backed him pretty much knowing hell be a short priced favourite come March and I'll be in an excellent position for the race. Zaynar was backed a while ago with the hope that Big Buck's goes chasing. That's not looking likely at the moment but one never knows.

I'll be posting regular updates and my thoughts on the Festival as the winter progresses.

*Update* 30/10
Most of my punting action takes place on Betfair and I don't look at the odds from regular bookmakers as often as I probably should. For the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Festival the exchange has Master Minded the clear favourite by half a point from Big Zeb and yet Stan James has the latter at 3/1 and the former at 11/2. That is just plain wrong. Nicholls charge is a horse that has been a tad overrated in the past but he's still young enough to do himself justice and two things stick out from last year's poor campaign. He was injured when failing to give weight on his seasonal reappearance and even though he was disappointing in the Champion Chase he has had a breathing operation since. In summary I think the prices quoted are the wrong way round and 11/2 has to be taken.







King George
Long Run £10w @ 11/2

Cheltenham Festival:

Champion Chase
Master Minded £40w @ 11/2

RSA
Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 9/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1
Mad Max £8w @ 77/1
Punchestowns £5w @ 23/1

RP Trophy

As the flat draws to a close I have maybe a couple of chances to turn a small loss overall into a profit and those chances will be Casamento in the Racing Post Trophy this afternoon at Doncaster and Behkabad in the Breeders Cup Turf in a fortnight.

Casamento is the clear form pick in today's Group 1 having been beaten narrowly by the classy Pathfork in the National Stakes on only his second start and then winning the Group 2 that St Nicholas Abbey and Sea the Stars both win on his latest start. He is the favourite today but I expected 9/4 or maybe 5/2 to be his price not the 4.1 available on the exchanges. His main challenger, Dunboyne Express, has not raced since July and has had setbacks but he does have a chance on form tie-ins with my selection. I'm not sure the animals he has beat are ones to be trusted in terms of collateral form however and I think you have to go with the proven Group form. None of the others appeal.


Casamento £40w @ 41/10 (won)

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