Ante-Post

    It's been very quiet on the betting front recently but I've been watching a fair amount of flat racing and two or three horses have gone into the old notebook. I'm looking forward to the weekend and am hopeful that Toormore can go close in the Guineas but Kingman will be hard to beat. I do have a theory with trials though and that is that some horses go into them in an effort to establish themselves and some to confirm what is pretty much already been established. We saw an example of this last year in the Nell Gwyn when Hot Snap looked very impressive in beating Sky Lantern. But whereas prior to that race Hot Snap was a once raced maiden winner Sky Lantern had already been successful in Group 1 company. And so I felt at the time (or more accurately when I was studying the odds for the 1000) that there were grounds for thinking Hot Snap was forward enough to do herself justice that day whereas Sky Lantern was just tuning up for Guineas weekend. In short I reckoned Sky Lantern would reverse placings in the 1000 Guineas. And so she did.

    Kingman didn't go to Newbury for the Greenham with as low a profile as Hot Snap the year before but he had suffered an injury towards the end of his 2yo campaign and so was in essence hoping to put himself firmly in the picture for this Saturday. He did that in no uncertain terms of course and maybe I'm clutching at straws but there is a possibility he left some of what connections hope he'll show at Newmarket on the track in Berkshire that day. Toormore wasn't as impressive in his trial but he didn't need to be. He was last season's champion 2yo and a Group 1 winner to boot. Roll on Saturday.

     I don't normally get involved at Punchestown but the action today was terrific. I was so pleased to see Sizing Europe win his final race but the highlight was Faugheen's victory in the Grade 1 Novice over two miles. He was deeply impressive and would be of interest if he was aimed at the Champion Hurdle next season. For the sake of my Arkle bet I hope he doesn't go chasing.




2000 Guineas:
Toormore £30w @ 8/1

Derby:
Berkshire £10w @ 25/1

--
Arkle:
Josses Hill £10w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1

Newmarket - 17th April

An important card at headquarters tomorrow with the Craven Stakes being the highlight. My ante-post position on Toormore looks a bit fragile with Kingman putting down a very impressive marker last Saturday. He'll be a hard nut to crack in a fortnight or so and it seems the main obstacle in front of him is the possibility of fast ground. John Gosden naturally wants to look after him given the horse's injury last year and he has said he won't run if conditions aren't suitable. Newmarket will be most keen not to lose the horse to the French version of their Classic and might water to ensure good ground. I hope it doesn't come to that, to me good rattling fast ground is what the 2000 Guineas should be run on. Artificially watering a surface to ensure a certain amount of cushion is understandable for National Hunt racing but not for the flat.

Toormore faces four rivals and Be Ready looks his main danger. This Godolphin animal had one of the best posed portraits in Timeform's recent Racehorses annual and I was contemplating backing him for the 2000 as well until Kingman's display in the Greenham. It should be an informative race.

The Earl of Sefton Stakes is half an hour after the Craven and it's a race with a good betting shape. Just the Judge heads the market but this is her first time up against colts and she seems a bit short at around 3/1. Fencing is second choice but holds that position on trainer form rather than actual form and is easily swerved. Mull of Killough won this event last season and although it looks a slightly better renewal this time around he carried a penalty then that he doesn't now and at 11/2 I think he rates a fair bet. He has a very good record on the Rowley Mile (three wins from five runs) and looks just about the best horse in this race. His recent form has been abroad (Dubai in the spring and Australia last Autumn) and he ran one or two really good races during his spell down under. At eight years of age I do worry something might progress past him but there's no question he's overpriced in this event.

Earl of Sefton Stakes:
Mull of Killough £40w @ 11/2 (won)

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Newbury - 12th April

Bronze Angel faced an extremely tough task when he attempted to defend his Cambridgeshire crown after almost a year off the track back in September and alhough I backed him and was relatively confident it wasn't a great surprise to see him get tired in the last couple of furlongs. He had a couple of runs after that - one in a Group race where he was outclassed and one in an all-weather handicap where he got hampered when attempting to make his run. These on the face of it disappointing efforts have resulted in his mark falling to the point where he runs in the Spring Mile tomorrow at Newbury off 96. He was rated 95 when he won that Cambridgeshire.

All in all at 16/1 Im prepared to take a chance that he is the same horse that won that race in September 2012. 

Spring Mile:

Bronze Angel £40w @ 16/1 (lost)

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Aintree - 5th April

I have three horses backed already for tomorrow's National and I'm gonna add a couple during the race in running.

Double Seven has been strong in the market all week since Tony McCoy confirmed he rides him. I backed him in March after a horse he beat at Limerick in October won the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. He's a horse with plenty of wins to his name over the last year or so and he's shot up the handicap but I'm happy with that 33/1.
I had The Rainbow Hunter in mind for the race after he impressively won a big handicap at Doncaster in January. He had an operation to aid his breathing before the turn of the year and again, I got in early at a good price. He unseated in the race last year but that win at Doncaster suggests he's a better horse now.
Rocky Creek is a flat track horse who jumps well and stays. The main knock against him is his lack of experience over fences but the race is different now since the fences were hollowed out and I'm willing to ignore some of the old stats that a lot of punters sweared by. His run in the Hennessy reads well and I think he'll love this test.

I backed Teaforthree last year when he just failed to get home and I think his chance comes down to how his ridden in terms of conserving his stamina. In the 2004 National Hedgehunter led right from the get go setting a decent pace but he paid the price and fell at the last when beaten. The next year he came back and was held up just off the pace, only taking over after Clan Royal was mugged at second Becher's. He went on to be one of the most impressive winners I've seen in the great race and I just wonder if Rebecca Curtis has the same tactics in mind for her horse tomorrow. With that in mind I am going to put a bid up on Betfair for about 18/1 (he's currently around 11/1) once the race starts. I'm going to do the same with Tidal Bay but for differing reasons. He's bound to get outpaced at some point in the race and whilst his odds of 20/1 make a certain amount of appeal I reckon 28+ will be available at some stage. I think the gentler version of the race will suit him (he was a non factor in 2011) and I just have to get involved given his crazy looking mark. He's a recent(ish) proper* Grade 1 winner being asked to give less than a stone to the likes of Walkon and Balthazar King.

EDIT 5/4
Bet365 have a pretty amazing concession this morning. Back anything each way in the big race and you get half your stake back. So I've found another couple of horses. Alvarado's win at Cheltenham in the Autumn reads well (he had Monbeg Dude in behind) and he has a nice racing weight. Prince de Beauchene has dropped down the handicap in the last few months and is worth a bet with this concession given his liking for good ground and his win over these fences a couple of years back.

Grand National:
Double Seven £10ew @ 33/1 (5pl) (3rd)
The Rainbow Hunter £10ew @ 40/1 (5pl) (bd)
Rocky Creek £10ew @ 20/1 (6pl) (5th)
Prince de Beauchene £10ew @ 25/1 (5pl) half stake returned (lost)
Alvarado £10ew @ 33/1 (5pl) half stake returned (4th)

Teaforthree £20 bid IR @ 18/1 (fell)
Tidal Bay £20 bid IR @ 28/1 (not matched, cancelled as he was brought down)

*Unlike the rubbish Grade 1's at this meeting Tidal Bay beat Sir Des Champs, Flemenstar and a top form First Lieutenant in his.

(-891.25)

Aintree - 4th April

Another poor day today and I'll be honest my confidence is shot to pieces. I just haven't been able to get a handle on this jumps season - in particular the staying chasers division. I have a couple of bets tomorrow and then my usual four darts at the National board and then I can put a terrible jumps season behind me.

Wonderful Charm's JLT form was boosted today and he's a horse I always thought of as a three mile chaser. When he won at Wincanton in November I backed him for the RSA with not even a thought in my head that he would go for the shorter race at the Festival but that he did. I think 4/1 is decent enough value tomorrow as I'm confident he'll stay and the favourite had a hard race when winning that RSA. Holywell looks a promising chaser but I'm really not sure he should be shorter than the selection and the other make little appeal.

The Melling Chase looks a tragic renewal and Module is overpriced for it. He ran well enough in the Queen Mother over an inadequate trip and looks the best horse in this race. So at 11/2 I'm happy to be a backer. The opposition really doesn't look up to much with Rajdhani Express' placed effort in the Ryanair hardly looking that inspiring with so many horses running below form in that race. And Ballynagour surely can't win a Grade 1. Even one as poor as this one. Wishfull Thinking might be the biggest danger but he's held on Cheltenham running.

Mildmay Novices' Chase:
Wonderful Charm £40w @ 4/1 (lost)

Melling Chase;
Module £50w @ 53/10 (half this stake has a money back concession - money back if 2nd or 3rd) nr void

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Aintree - 3rd April

For the first time in quite a few years I won't be attending any of the three days of the Aintree Festival this year, but I'm looking forward to the meeting nevertheless and I have a few bets lined up.

I was hoping Fox Norton would be a nice each way price in the opening Juvenile Hurdle and 8/1 will do. I'm not a mega each way punter by any means but I do fear both Calipto and Actival in this race.We can safely ignore Calipto's disappointing run in the Triumph as his jockey's stirrup snapped and before that both horses looked impressive in their run leading up to Cheltenham. Both Broughton and Royal Irish Hussar sort of let Fox Norton's form down a tad at the Festival but it's possible the former wasn't suited to the track being a pure flat bred horse and the latter doesn't strike me as very reliable. Guitar Pete, who runs tomorrow as well of course, also represents that same formline and he was placed in the Triumph. Ultimately though I believe Nick Williams has a cracking bunch of young hurdlers this season, of which Fox Norton and Le Rocher are the leading pair - and I'm happy to take 8/1, a price I think he will outrun on a track that should suit and on decent ground.

In my entry earlier in the week I mentioned that I seem to back First Lieutenant almost everytime he runs and that got me thinking - has there ever been a horse in my twenty five years of punting that I have backed more? So I did a bit of research and it turns out my bet on him in the Betfred Bowl is the ninth time I will have punted him. And the only other horses that come close are Denman, Lochsong and Desert Sun (a Henry Cecil colt who was winter favourite for the 1991 2000 Guineas). So I don't see the need to rehash all the old arguments with regard to the horse's optimum conditions and love for decent ground/this time of year. Suffice to say I'm happy with 7/2 although I do fear Dynaste.

The Manifesto Novices' Chase later on the card looks a weak Grade 1 and I think Fox Appeal is overpriced slightly at 10/1. He's a good jumper in the main who appreciates a decent surface and two and a half miles is his trip. His overall form gives him something to find but at the price I'm willing to bet his optimum conditions will see him outrun those odds. I liked his run last time out behind Balder Succes on ground that was softer than ideal for him and Oscar Whiskey and Western Warhorse both strike me as opposable. Oscar because I'm just not convinced about him over fences, Western Warhorse because he had a hard race at Cheltenham.

IJF Juvenile Hurdle:
Fox Norton £20ew @ 8/1 (lost)

Betfred Bowl:
First Lieutenant £40w @ 7/2 (lost)

Manifesto Novices' Chase:
Fox Appeal £30w @ 10/1 (lost)

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Aintree Festival

With the five day entries for all three days having been made this meeting looks a cracker this year with the opening day in particular choc full of good events.

I'm hoping Fox Norton takes his place in the Juvenile Hurdle that kicks off the three days. He looks a good ground horse and his form has worked out well. I had him at a big price for the Triumph and was gutted when Nick Williams pulled him out and I reckon with Calipto and Activial in the race he'll be an each way price. 

The Betfred Bowl has been priced up already by one or two layers and it won't be a surprise to anyone who's read this blog before that I've taken some 7/2 about First Lieutenant. You could say he's my cliff horse as I do seem to back him almost everytime he runs. But I would argue that he's an animal that continues to be underrated by the layers. His opening price for this is 7/2, as opposed to 7/4 about Silviniaco Conti - a horse First Lieutenant beat in this very race twelve months ago. Factor in that the Nicholls horse completed the Gold Cup this season, thus having a harder race than he did when falling last year, and that my selection missed Cheltenham altogether - and one can only conclude the price discrepancy between the two is incorrect.

Of course it isn't a two horse race and Dynaste will be a formidable opponent. He has a reputation as a bit of an inconsistant beast but his overall record, especially in chases, contradicts this. I will probably cover on him.

Friday's card doesn't appeal quite as much from a punting angle although I think Module will go well in the Melling Chase. The line-up for that race looks ridiculous compared to 2013's.

I've added Rocky Creek to my National bets at 20/1. I'll add my reasons on the day of the race.

Ante-Post:

Betfred Bowl:

First Lieutenant £20w @ 7/2

Grand National:
Double Seven £10ew @ 33/1 NRNB
The Rainbow Hunter £10ew @ 40/1 NRNB
Rocky Creek £10ew @ 20/1 NRFB (6 places)

--
2000 Guineas:
Toormore £20w @ 8/1

Derby:
Berkshire £10w @ 25/1

--
Arkle:
Josses Hill £10w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1

Ante-Post Musings

Even though the National is just around the corner the biggest news or hype event I guess you could call it, was the talking up Aidan O'Brien gave Australia after he worked at The Curragh yesterday. He heads straight to Newmarket for the Guineas with his trainer saying he's the second best horse he has trained. And his best was a jumper! I'm paraphrasing obviously but that was the gist of it. The Ballydoyle machine is rarely wrong when they talk up a horse - One Cool Cat is the only one I can think of that ended up being a bit rubbish, and he had heart issues. So I've sort of changed my thoughts with regard to backing/opposing these animals and no longer do the latter without good reason. What changed my thoughts was the season Declaration of War had in 2013. He was hyped to the moon, came out in the Lockinge where he was very short in the betting, ran a stinker and then was subsequently allowed to go off at a big price in a much weaker race at Royal Ascot - which he won of course.

Australia has a mouth watering pedigree being by Galileo out of Ouija Board, but it is very much one that suggests he will be a much better horse at around a mile and a half than over the 2000 Guineas trip. For that solid reason I am against him for the first classic and have sided with Toormore. He had the best overall form going into the winter and I think 8/1 just a month or so out is decent value given how much the favourite takes out of the market.

As for Aintree, I've picked a couple already and will add one or two more on the day for the big race. I mentioned the form boost Double Seven received at the Festival and The Rainbow Hunter is just a horse I had in mind for the race after his win in the Great Yorkshire Chase in January. That was a step up in form for him and he is said to have had a soft palate operation in November which has obviously helped him.


Grand National:
Double Seven £10ew @ 33/1 NRNB
The Rainbow Hunter £10ew @ 40/1 NRNB

--
2000 Guineas:
Toormore £20w @ 8/1

Derby:
Berkshire £10w @ 25/1

--
Arkle:
Josses Hill £10w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1

Cheltenham Postscript

It was a strange Festival for me. With the issues I have in my worklife I didn't enter the week with the same giddy excitement I normally do and outside of my ante-post portfolio I felt a reluctance to back in other races or top up the bets I already had. I initially punted Jezki for the Champion Hurdle immediately after the 2013 Festival at a big looking 20/1 and aside from a minimal top up in the summer he was left alone. I didn't go off the horse, I just fancied Our Conor more after the runs they had in the winter. Being light on a big priced winner is nearly as bad as missing one altogether and ultimately with the misfortune I suffered on Friday (Le Rocher not running and Briar Hill falling - the former beat the second in the Triumph easily last time out and Briar Hill had a decision over both Very Wood and Apache Jack) it cost me a profit on the week. Overall though I was happy with my bets over the week all things considered.

The horse to take out of the week is Champagne Fever. He jumped like a stag in the Arkle and was just outspeeded near the line. His pedigree screams three miles and I liken him to a Derby horse running in a 2000 Guineas. A top class 12f animal might win the occasional Newmarket Classic (really weak ones like Camelot's edition) but they will always be better over further. The same sort of comment applies to Champagne Fever, and with a step up in trip inevitable one only needs to suss out whether or not he'll be aimed towards the Ryanair or the Gold Cup. In the hierarchy of the Mullins stable novice hurdlers last season and novice chasers this he has always been numero uno and so I cannot for the life of me see them wasting a campaign geared towards the Ryanair when Willie must be absolutely desperate to win a Gold Cup after finishing runner up the last couple of years.

I'm not a massive fan of the Grand National nowadays but it does look a decent betting heat this season because none of the market leaders appeal in the slightest. I'll be looking to back three or four outsiders each way. The first of these is Double Seven whose Munster National win last October was franked big time at Cheltenham.


Ante-Post:

Grand National:
Double Seven £10ew @ 33/1 NRNB
--
2000 Guineas:
Toormore £15w @ 8/1

Derby:
Berkshire £10w @ 25/1
--
Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1

Uttoxeter - 15th March

I really didn't anticipate having a bet today after such a busy week and a brutal final day at Cheltenham but I can't resist Harry Topper in the Midlands National. Off 161 he faces no easy task but he stays all day and the ground is soft enough for him. The key to his chance is his run at Cheltenham on trials day. He was never comfortable at almost any point during the race and lost ground at almost every fence and yet still stayed on to be beaten only 7 lengths by The Giant Bolster. When you think of how much ground he conceded that day, the distance he was beaten, the weight he gave the winner (10lbs) and of course the franking that form received yesterday in the Gold Cup, it's not hard to conclude that he is still well handicapped even off 161. The Giant Bolster is a low 160s horse and Harry Topper would have beaten him comfortably off levels if he'd jumped better. Uttoxeter should suit him and so he must go close.

Midlands National:
Harry Topper £25w/£15pl @ 8/1 (pu)

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