Hennessy

Fascinating race today at Newbury and I really like Denman and Killyglen. The former everyone knows about and although he's running off 174 today I still thnk he may be well handicapped (Imperial Commander has been put up to the same mark after the Betfair Chase yesterday) and for me he's a backable price because of his much publicised issues last year.
Killyglen is in my ten to follow list this year and I think he ran a smashing race first time up over an inadequate 2 and a half miles, the form of which has worked out quite well.
Obviously it's a really competitive race and there are some nicely weighted horses trading at tempting prices like Gone to Lunch, Nenuphar Collonges and My Will but i'll stick with the two selections. I think Barbers Shop, Cappa Bleu and What a Friend are poor value and make the race from a betting angle.

Denman £25win @ 47/10
Killyglen £20win @ 9/1

Haydock - Betfair Chase Day

I'm going to Haydock today and already have a position on Kauto Star. Worries about the ground and the fact that he tipped up in this race a year ago meant he was trading at 2.28 on Betfair yesterday. I took that for £75 and expect him to be odds-on as the money comes in for what is a very public horse. I intend to lay off £35 at around 1.9 if possible. I think the fact that he comes here fresh as opposed to running at Down Royal like last year is the key thing in making him a bet today. He has a huge amount in hand from a form point of view and should be odds-on. Notre Pere is a horse I like but not over 3 miles on a tight track. I consider Madison Du Berlais to be the main danger and may back him on course.

Diamond Harry is also a horse I will be backing on the track in the handicap hurdle.

Cheltenham - Open Meeting

The first big Jumps fixture of the season and I have found a bet in the big race. I think i'm gonna have a sneaky each way on Tartak - and i'll be taking the 16s with Paddy Power given the concession they are running (they will refund your stake if one of the Paul Nicholls trained runners wins) rather than the 18s available generally. He ran really well in the Arkle considering he was squeezed out at a time when he was travelling nicely. The trip was on the short side as well that day. I think we're getting a nice price because of his poor run at Aintree but i'm always willing to forgive the odd off day.

On sunday I have already backed James De Vassey in the Greatwood. I've always mulled over the idea of following a stable in the winter game to try and get a better handle on form (flat racing always being my main thing) but i've never quite found the right trainer. I didn't want someone either at the top of the tree or someone who was getting on a bit (toyed with the idea of following Ferdy Murphy a few years ago but felt he was too old) and last year I plumped for Nick Williams as a trainer with a lot of potential and someone who seemed to be getting better and better horses each year. I've already backed Diamond Harry for the RSA Chase at the Festival and James De Vassey strikes me as a sporting bet in what is obviously a very competitive handicap hurdle.

Tartak £25w £15pl @ 16/1 in the Paddy Power.
James De Vassey £20win £10pl @ 10/1 in the Greatwood.

Breeders Cup

I think I may chance Rip Van Winkle this evening at Santa Anita. I'm not sure about O'Brien's ability to recognise when a horse has gone but I do trust him to get a horse who's had the sort of problem's Rip has had to the track and ready to run for his life. I've seen a few of Zenyatta's races on Youtube and she does look top class, but how good are the American fillies she's beat? Ability wise it's more likely she's on a Bank's Hill kind of level (late120's) than a Zarkava (early 130's) and ultimately even if she is in the latter's league a top form RVW would likely beat her. I'd have liked him to have been more impressive at Ascot but I guess the trainer left a bit to work on.

I'm not interested in backing him at British prices but he is a bet at 3/1 or above on the American tote. I won't know the price until after the race so:

£60win @ 3/1 or
£70win @ better than 3s.

My internet at home is down at the moment (posting from work) so will update when I can including summing up this flat season. I will keep the blog going during the Jumps.