23/02/2012

Cheltenham Thoughts 23/2

As the Festival draws nearer setbacks and non-runners start becoming more plentiful unfortunately. Planet of Sound hasn't been entered in the Handicap I'd backed him for and instead is taking in a race at Kempton on Saturday before possibly running in the Grand National and just today Fingal Bay has had a setback with news to follow tomorrow according to his handler. On the bright side the latter might be OK and even if he isn't I will have positions on Simonsig and possibly Mount Benbulben that will probably be improved if he misses the Festival. I hope the current drift on Betfair is an overreaction and I've taken 10/1 in the hope that that is the case. My fear is he will not take part however, making Simonsig more likely to take in the Neptune. I've put some money back into him for that contest. 


Seeing Sprinter Sacre in the flesh last week at Newbury was a real pleasure and he goes to the Arkle with the world at his feet. He dominates my ante-post book and how he goes is how I go. Aside from him I'm in a healthy position in the Ryanair where both Rubi Light and Medermit advertised their claims last weekend but on the flip side Mikael D'Haguenet was most disappointing on Sunday and I doubt he'll run in the World Hurdle now. My tickets arrived for the Thursday yesterday and that promises to be busy days punting as I intend to back For Non Stop in the Jewson and Oscar Whisky in the World Hurdle on the day. Full steam ahead.


Supreme:
Simonsig £30w @ 136/10 - Laid back at 10/1

Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £200w @ 46/10 and £30w double with Fingal Bay (Neptune) @ 9/4 and 5/1

Neptune:
Simonsig £30w @ 12/1 - £20 Laid back @ 95/10 
Fingal Bay £10w @ 10/1

Champion Chase:
Wishfull Thinking £20w @ 20/1

World Hurdle:
Mikael D'Haguenet £15w @ 34/1 and £10w @ 72/10 (w/o Big Bucks) 

Ryanair:
Medermit £25w @ 16/1
Rubi Light £20w @ 82/10 

Spa Hurdle:
Mount Benbulben £40w @ 12/1 

County Hurdle:
Empire Levant £15w @ 16/1 

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1
Captain Chris £10w @ 33/1 
Magnanimity £10ew @ 25/1 (w/o Kauto Star and Long Run) 
China Rock £5w @ 79/1 


Non Runners - total of £70 lost.

16/02/2012

Newbury - 17th Feb

Tomorrow we have an excellent card at Newbury, rearranged after it's original fixture was abandoned, and I'm delighted to say I will be attending. The hire car is booked and I'll be setting off early in the morning.

Sprinter Sacre warms up for the Arkle in the opener and the 5/4 I took when the original five day entries were posted is looking in excellent shape now as he's well odds-on. I'm excited to be seeing this horse in the flesh and fully expect him to win impressively.

The Betfair Hurdle is the big betting event on the day and I'm in a good position in this race also having taken 8/1 about hot favourite Zarkandar when betting opened. That was only for £10 as there was some doubt about him running at the time but he takes his chance and I have topped up at 7/2 since. Empire Levant also runs for Paul Nicholls and this is an animal I've backed for the County Hurdle at the Festival. He looks well handicapped and I'll be taking the best price I can on course having already got 7/2 about him placing in the race.

Game Spirit:
Sprinter Sacre £80w @ 5/4 (won)

Betfair Hurdle:
Zarkandar £40w @ 46/10 (won)
Empire Levant £15pl @ 7/2 and £10ew on course at best odds available (lost)


(-773)

15/02/2012

Cheltenham Thoughts 15/2

Good and bad news this week. Simonsig has just impressed in his warm up race for the Festival but there is still some doubt as to which contest he will take in at the Festival.  The odds he's trading at for both the Supreme and the Neptune are shorter than the prices I took so I've laid back both my positions. I'm nicely green on him for both races now with no liability so can step in again when his target is confirmed. 


The bad news is that Last Instalment, a horse who had won the PJ Moriarty in fine style at the weekend, has sustained a leg injury and misses the RSA Chase. Unfortunate.


I had a really good Festival last year and had a winner every day but this year it really does revolve around one horse, and he's still a decent price. Indeed some bookmakers are going 9/4 Sprinter Sacre and 3/1 Peddlers Cross. I'm truly baffled at the closeness of their odds. The topping up continues including doubling him up with Fingal Bay in the Neptune. That horse had Simonsig behind him in a novice hurdle at Sandown in December. The form of that race has worked out incredibly well and he has a leading chance in that contest.


Supreme:
Simonsig £30w @ 136/10 - Laid back at 10/1

Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £200w @ 46/10 and £30w double with Fingal Bay (Neptune) @ 9/4 and 5/1 

Festival Handicap Chase:
Planet of Sound £10w @ 24/1

Neptune:
Simonsig £20w @ 15/1 - Laid back @ 95/10

Champion Chase:
Wishfull Thinking £20w @ 20/1

World Hurdle:
Mikael D'Haguenet £15w @ 34/1 and £10w @ 72/10 (w/o Big Bucks) 

Ryanair:
Medermit £20w @ 18/1
Rubi Light £20w @ 82/10 

Spa Hurdle:
Mount Benbulben £30w @ 13/1 

County Hurdle:
Empire Levant £15w @ 16/1 


Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1
Captain Chris £10w @ 33/1 
Magnanimity £10ew @ 25/1 (w/o Kauto Star and Long Run) 
China Rock £5w @ 79/1


Non Runners - total of £60 lost.

11/02/2012

Leopardstown - Feb 12th

Super Saturday is on hold because of the weather and initial disappointment is tempered by the fact that I'm off work next week so may well head on down to Newbury on Friday.

Onto the big race in Ireland on Sunday. This is quite an open event that isn't reflected in the betting. Favourite Quel Espirit is a classy individual who nevertheless has a habit of not completing races and he's well worth taking on at a short price. Magnanimity is a horse I've backed in the without Long Run and Kauto Star Gold Cup market and at around 7/1 is attractively priced for tomorrow's race as well. He has quite close form tie-in's with Boston's Angel, who is half his price, and after injuring himself in the RSA and needing his first run of the season I feel he has been underrated for this contest. A race where nothing really stands out from a form point of view. It's a value call.

Magnanimity £50w @ 7/1 (lost)


(-1023)

08/02/2012

Cheltenham Thoughts 8/2

Sprinter Sacre, Medermit, Last Instalment, Empire Levant, Simonsig, Magnanimity and China Rock (added this week) all run this weekend assuming racing goes ahead so my ante-post book could be in for a boost or the opposite come Sunday afternoon.

Since my last update I've topped up on a horse or two and added the aforementioned China Rock for small money to my depressing Gold Cup list. This horse was running a cracking race in last year's renewal before injuring himself at the fourth last and the 80 available at Betfair earlier in the week was too big to resist.

Supreme:
Simonsig £30w @ 136/10

Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £170w @ 5/1

Festival Handicap Chase:
Planet of Sound £10w @ 24/1

Baring Bingham:
Simonsig £20w @ 15/1

RSA:
Last Instalment £20w @ 81/10

Champion Chase:
Wishfull Thinking £20w @ 20/1

World Hurdle:
Mikael D'Haguenet £15w @ 34/1 and £10w @ 72/10 (w/o Big Bucks)


Ryanair:
Medermit £15w @ 20/1
Rubi Light £15w @ 84/10


Spa Hurdle:
Mount Benbulben £30w @ 13/1


County Hurdle:
Empire Levant £15w @ 16/1


Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1
Captain Chris £10w @ 33/1 
Magnanimity £10ew @ 25/1 (w/o Kauto Star and Long Run)
China Rock £5w @ 79/1


Non Runners - total of £40 lost

07/02/2012

Sprinter Sacre

I've mentioned this horse numerous times in this blog over the last few months and the bet I have on him for the Arkle will be my biggest ever on the Jumps. He warms up for the Festival at Newbury on Saturday in the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase against fellow novice Cue Card and a few second raters. It looks a straight forward assignment but for some reason William Hill have seen fit to offer 5/4. They are the only bookmakers pricing the race up and I think they've made a rick here, for me he should be 8/11 tops.

Game Spirit:
Sprinter Sacre £80w @ 5/4