Cheltenham Reflections/ Ante-Post Update

I'm drained after such a high octane week. The highlight was the Gold Cup and the performances of the two old warriors who finished second and third. I admit I shed a tear when Denman was brought in after such honourable defeat. I'm torn on whether or not they should retire him or not. I'd hate to see him struggle as age catches up with him but on the other hand I would love to see him run in the flesh over fences (I was at Cheltenham in 2006 when he was second to Nicanor in a Novice Hurdle)

From a punting point of view four winners meant I was way up on the week and I have had a terrific Jumps season. I'm assured a tidy profit with only the Grand National meeting left on the season and speaking of the great race I took a position on The Midnight Club when the weights came out a few weeks back. My only other bet outstanding now is a small one on Wootton Bassett in the 2000 Guineas.


Grand National:
The Midnight Club £10ew @ 20/1

2000 Guineas:
Wootton Bassett £15w @ 16/1

Cheltenham Festival - Friday

What a fantastic day out yesterday. I did my conkers on Grand Crus in the World Hurdle but was at the front when Ruby brought Big Bucks back and I was cheering like everyone else. That's what the Jumps game is all about. I suppose it helped that I'd had my third winner of the week when Noble Prince won the opener. The place was packed, I had a nice drink or two and there were plenty of nice women to look at. Good times.

Today is all about the Gold Cup of course and my selections are Denman and Long Run. I've topped up slightly on both since my last ante-post update. I'm against Imperial Commander who hasn't had the perfect preparation he had last year (he also doesn't have the vibe of a dual winner for me) and cannot see Kauto Star winning after three below par runs on the bounce. He's been a legend but has too many miles on the clock now. Denman is my favourite horse of all time and I'm hopeful rather than confident given that the course hasn't had the rain that was forecast yet. Long Run I've been a big supporter of for sometime and his King George victory was the highlight of the year until Hurricane Fly on Tuesday. I'm a tad worried abou his course form but he was over the top when tackling the RSA last year and his jumping seems to have improved markedly since his first run of the season here back in the Autumn. I see Kempes as the biggest danger to my selections and have put him in an each way double with a horse running earlier on the card.

Having said it's all about the one race I like the look of Soldatino in the County Hurdle, the second race on the card today. He won the Triumph last year of course and seems to be coming into form. He was fifth in the Tote Gold Trophy at Newbury where he was held up in a race where it suited those up with the pace. He loves the track and with some bookies paying five places in this race he's worth a bet.

County Hurdle:
Soldatino £10w @ 17/1 £15ew @ 16/1
and in a £5ew double with Kempes paid at SP. (lost)

Gold Cup:
Denman £60w @ 8/1 (lost)
Long Run £40w @ 58/10 (won)

£45 lost on various non-runners throughout the week (in addition to the two Ryanair selections yesterday)

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Cheltenham Festival - Thursday

Having to post this on Wednesday evening as I am going to Cheltenham tomorrow for my first to the Festival since 2007. Another good day today that could have been excellent if For Non Stop hadn't fallen at the last but I'm well in profit for the week and Sizing Europe's win in the QM was so sweet, particulary as I'd backed him in the Arkle the previous year as well.

Noble Prince runs in the Jewson Novices Chase that opens the card. This is a new graded race over two and a half miles and it looks a tricky heat but my fancy has close form ties with Realt Dubh who ran a cracker in the Arkle on Tuesday. Noble Prince should appreciate the step up in trip and also the better ground given his flat pedigree. At the moment I have £20 on him at 6/1 and will put another £40 on at the track so I'm not sure what price I'll end up with yet.

I backed Grand Crus for the World Hurdle after his scintillating victory in the Cleeve Hurdle. I took 3s then and he's available at slightly longer than that on Betfair now (a price I have taken) because of ground concerns. I don't think the track is running that fast as their was plenty of kickback today and the fresh ground they run on tomorrow on the new course should have plenty of bounce in it. Basically Grand Crus put in the most impressive performance I've seen from any horse all season and I think he has the beating of reigning champ Big Bucks tomorrow.
Similar to Noble Prince I will be topping up my bet to £60 on the track. My fiver on Zaynar was the first ante-post bet I placed on this year's Festival back in April. He's made the race but I can't really fancy him to win. I can however see him sneaking a place as he has a fine record at the meeting so I've had a small place bet on him.

I have two non runners in the Ryanair and am not getting further involved in a very tricky looking contest.


Jewson Novice Chase:
Noble Prince £60w @ 9/2 (won)

Ryanair:
Riverside Theatre £20 (NR)
Tranquil Sea £45 (NR)


World Hurdle:
Grand Crus £60w @ 100/30 (lost)
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1 £15pl @ 4/1 (lost)




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Cheltenham Festival - Wednesday

When Finian's Rainbow was beaten in the Arkle yesterday after looking all over the winner I had bad vibes for the meeting but Hurricane Fly made up for that reverse and then some. An excellent days racing with a winner thrown in - it really doesn't get much better than that.

Onto today and I have bets in three of the races, all of them ante-post. In the RSA chase I have Mikael D'Haguenet, who I first backed for the race way back in early December. He was a top draw novice hurdler a couple of years back and I fully expected him to make the grade as a chaser as well. Unforunately things haven't panned out this year. He travelled like an absolute beast on his first run of the season in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse in December and his fall at the last was most unfortunate. It was a weird one in that his front legs seemed to get tangled up upon landing. He would have pissed the race if standing up and the form of it has worked out really well. The trainer messed up running him just a fortnight later over shorter and he bounced big time.
I liked his last run in the Moriarty at Leopardstown. He travelled OK once again and was hampered really badly when his stable companion fell at the fourth last. Just imagine that you're running in a race on heavy, rain softened ground and you're tonking along nicely under a steady rhythm when suddenly you're almost brought to a standstill by an unexpected event happening in front of you. The effort involved with having to get back into that rhythm and back on terms with the leaders who have pulled away from you must take it's tole at the business end of a race. For that reason I am hopeful MDH can give Time for Rupert something to think about. He's the only animal in the race who has the class, if back to his best, to give the favourite a race. The vibes coming out of the yard are not good though and my original stake has been trimmed slightly as he shortened a tad when Ruby Walsh was confirmed as his rider.

The Queen Mother had an excellent betting shape in the Autumn when they had Big Zeb (a very average winner of the race in 2010) at 3/1 and Master Minded (an excellent winner in 2008 and 2009) at 11/2. That gap for me was wrong and although the latter had it all to prove after a disappointing campaign I felt it was too early to write him off. I backed him at that price and have topped up since. He has a favourite's chance today. I also have an each way bet on Sizing Europe at 14/1. Arkle winners have a terrific record in the Champion Chase and he has excellent place claims.

In the Coral Cup Nick Williams (still without a Festival winner after Reve and Maljimar finished 3rd and 4th yesterday) runs For Non Stop. An impressive winner on his seasonal opener at Chepstow, I backed him when he ran into the top class Grand Crus in a handicap hurdle at Cheltenham in November. He was beaten six lengths receiving a pound in that race and the form could not have worked out better. Grand Crus has a great chance of beating Big Bucks in the World Hurdle tomorrow and I backed For Non Stop for this race today last month when he was 14/1. A big price that was available because he also had an entry in tomorrow's main event at the time.


RSA Chase:
Mikael D'Haguenet £40w @ 12/1 (fell)

Champion Chase:
Master Minded £75w @ 4/1 (lost)
Sizing Europe £20ew @ 14/1 (won)

Coral Cup:
For Non Stop £35w/£20pl @ 14/1 (fell)


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Cheltenham Festival - Tuesday

At last the wait is over. I'm so psyched about this year's meeting and to open up I have positions on the first four races. I can't remember ever remember that happening before on any card. I've been betting ante-post on this for some months and have just been putting the finishing touches to my portfolio.

Anyway, to kick off I have Zaidpour in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. My theory with this Willie Mullins horse was that as a flat bred type he'd appreciate the better ground we get at Cheltenham but according to the trainer's son he actually want cut. Not sure about that really as he doesn't seem to hit the surface that hard when galloping. He's a sporting each way bet in a race where the favourite looks very solid.

In the Arkle I'm quite keen on Finian's Rainbow who ran well at the Festival last year, has the beating of the favourite on a line through a horse called Hells Bay and really is a bigger price than he ought to be because he wasn't impressive lst time out at Warwick. I have discussed that race in previous entries but suffice to say that the way he was ridden that day was not how they are going to go about things tomorrow.

Next up (and I really do wish they'd go Supreme/Arkle/Champion Hurdle like they did in the past, it was such a hella start to the week) is the Handicap Chase that William Hill used to sponsor. Oh Reve De Sivola what has happened to you? I think his connections and his fans will have started the season thinking we'd see this horse in the RSA but it isn't to be I'm afraid. He has been disappointing on a number of occasions but has a piece or two of decent chase form AT Cheltenham and I have to give the animal another chance (although I actually haven't backed him myself since his second in the Baring Bingham at last year's Event)
based on the fact that this three mile trip is what he's been crying out for and his lenient looking handicap mark. I took 16s a week or so ago and am happy with that.

Onto the Champion Hurdle. Well, I was satisfied with my bets in this race leading up to yesterday when the bombshell about Binocular's withdrawal was dropped. I really don't get how they could use a substance on  him that wasn't totally essential if said substance was on the banned list - no matter that the risk of a positive test was low due to the timeframe involved. Naturally this robs the race of a certain lustre, but it still looks a cracking renewal and I am now sitting pretty with almost 6/1 on Hurricane Fly and 21/1 on Dunguib. Obviously both these horses are a lot shorter in the market now the favourite isn't involved and I feel it would be wise to protect my position given the mileage I now have on this market. So I have backed Peddlers Cross at 9/2. I consider this animal to be a bigger danger than the new favourite, Menorah. Certain formlines suggests this horse still needs improvement to win and given his tie-in with Dunguib I just couldn't bring myself to back him at such a shorter price. Especially as I still think the latter is the horse to take out of last year's Supreme given the way the race was run. Hurricane Fly is my main bet for this of course and I consider him my NAP of the first day. He travels like a dream, jumps with fluency, will appreciate a sound surface and won't be undone by the famous Cheltenham hill given his form over further and on deep ground.


Supreme:
Zaidpour £20ew @ 9/1 (lost)

Arkle:
Finian's Rainbow £60w @ 47/10 (lost)

Spinal Research Handicap Chase:
Reve De Sivola £25ew @ 16/1 (3rd)

Champion Hurdle:
Hurricane Fly £60w @ 59/10 (won)
Dunguib £20w @ 21/1 (lost)
Peddlers Cross £40w @ 9/2 (lost)

I posted this on the eve of the Festival since which another bet has come to light. Maljimar runs in the Cross Country event and although I have kind of missed the price a bit I have a lot of history with this particular animal and his stable of course (backed him when he was chinned on the line by Wichita Lineman at the Festival in 09 and also had him in the National last year) so I really have to get involved. I reckon the veterans who usually line up in this are all past their best and Nick's horse was a really good third in a similar race in Dec 09 since which he has dropped down the handicap. I'm determined to be on when Nick has his first (of many) Festival winners

Cross Country:
Maljimar £60w @ 11/2 (lost)


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Cheltenham - T Minus 3 days

Just a couple of updates. I have added a bet on Noble Prince in the new graded novice chase over two and a half miles, the Jewson. He has close ties to Realt Dubh who runs in the Arkle, a horse I like and would probably have backed if I wasn't so keen on Finian's Rainbow. Being a lesser race it obviously won't take as much winning.
The Ryanair has turned into a bit of a mare with Tranquil Sea joining Riverside Theatre on the sidelines but overall I'm buzzing heading into the meeting and confident of coming out ahead. At this stage I would make Hurricane Fly my NAP of the week.


Supreme
Zaidpour £20ew @ 9/1

Arkle
Finian's Rainbow £40w @ 47/10

Spinal Research Handicap Chase
Reve De Sivola £25ew @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle
Dunguib £20w @ 21/1
Hurricane Fly £60w @ 59/10

Champion Chase
Master Minded £75w @ 4/1
Sizing Europe £20ew @ 14/1

RSA Chase
Mikael D'Haguenet £49w @ 12/1

Coral Cup
For Non Stop £35w/£20pl @ 14/1


Jewson
Noble Prince £10w @ 66/10

Ryanair Chase
Riverside Theatre £20w (NR)
Tranquil Sea £45w (NR)

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1
Grand Crus £20w @ 3/1


Gold Cup
Denman £50w @ 82/10
Long Run £20w @ 66/10



£40 lost on other NR's

Cheltenham - One Week to go.

Seven days to the big meeting and I for one cannot wait. All the Championship races look very competitive affairs and I don't think I've ever had so many bets lined up this close to the Festival.

I've added a couple over the weekend and today. In the 3m Handicap Chase that precedes the Champion Hurdle I've backed Reve De Sivola and in the Supreme Novices Hurdle I've taken Zaidpour to come back to form on better ground. I will give expand on my reasons for backing these two on the day of the race. The latter I have backed with the concession that I get my money back if he doesn't run. Since my last entry Riveside Theatre has picked up a knock and misses the Ryanair and Mikael D'Haguenet has been pretty much confirmed for the RSA.

Supreme
Zaidpour £20ew @ 9/1

Arkle
Finian's Rainbow £40w @ 47/10

Handicap Chase
Reve De Sivola £25ew @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle
Dunguib £20w @ 21/1
Hurricane Fly £60w @ 59/10

Champion Chase
Master Minded £75w @ 4/1
Sizing Europe £20ew @ 14/1

RSA Chase
Mikael D'Haguenet £49w @ 12/1

Coral Cup
For Non Stop £35w/£20pl @ 14/1

Ryanair Chase
Tranquil Sea £45w @ 8/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1
Grand Crus £20w @ 3/1

Gold Cup
Denman £50w @ 82/10
Long Run £20w @ 66/10

£60 lost on NR's

Cheltenham Thoughts 2/3

First the bad news, Punchestowns has been ruled out of the Gold Cup which increases the amount of money lost on non-runners. Not that he had much of a chance anyway.

On the brighter side Riverside Theatre has been confirmed for the Ryanair and as well as that horse I have decided to back Tranquil Sea as well. I punted him in the race last year but he was very disappointing. His final prep that time had come just over two weeks before the contest in an event run on heavy ground at Leopardstown. Not ideal in hindsight. This time around he's been geared exclusively with the Ryanair in mind and at 8/1 is worth an interest considering his close form ties with Poquelin, who is half the price and pretty poor value. Riverside Theatre's participation kind of makes the bet I had on Gauvain a bit redundant so I've laid that back at a slightly shorter price.

I've decided to get involved with Sizing Europe in the Champion Chase as there are a number of horses shorter than him in the betting who don't deserve to be. Golden Silver for example, a horse who has been beaten a grand total of 75 lengths in two previous visits to the Festival, is shorter in the place market at Betfair. That just can't be right. I have a position on the race already of course but Arkle winners have a terrific record in the Queen Mother when running in the race the following year and his price can't really be ignored.

It's funny, when I had five consecutive winners earlier in the campaign I was thinking I'd take it easier at Cheltenham because I'd already pretty much guaranteed my best ever Jumps season. But so many horses jump out at you as value propositions that one can't help but tuck in. I did think long and hard about these two most recent bets but ultimately I had good positions from a price point of view having first backed Master Minded in the Autumn and Riverside before he was confirmed for the Ryanair that I could afford to really.



Arkle
Mikael D'Haguenet £5w @ 17/1
Finian's Rainbow £40w @ 47/10

Champion Hurdle
Dunguib £20w @ 21/1
Hurricane Fly £50w @ 6/1

Champion Chase
Master Minded £75w @ 4/1
Sizing Europe £20ew @ 14/1

RSA Chase
Mikael D'Haguenet £49w @ 12/1

Coral Cup
For Non Stop £35w/£20pl @ 14/1

Ryanair Chase
Tranquil Sea £45w @ 8/1
Riverside Theatre £20w @ 65/10

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1
Grand Crus £20w @ 3/1

Gold Cup
Denman £50w @ 82/10
Long Run £20w @ 66/10

£30 lost on NR's