Cheltenham - 1st Jan

    I've had a pretty poor Christmas from a punting point of view but it's been a good year overall and my bankroll has grown to the extent that I expect to up the stakes a bit when we get to the flat.

    Despite not scoring since 2011 I think Alfie Spinner looks solid in the 12.45 tomorrow at Cheltenham, He's had a good season thus far but his theme for 2014 seemed to be running into really well handicapped horses time after time. Standing Ovation, Mendip Express and The Young Master were all too good for him over the last twelve months or so but unless Our Father is able to replicate some of the form he showed during his novice season over fences the opposition appears largely beatable. Alfie travels well in his races, jumps superbly in the main (he was terrific last time out at Aintree) and is overdue a win.


BetBright on Mobile Handicap Chase:

Alfie Spinner £25w/£15pl @ 6/1 (lost)

(+421.25)

Leopardstown - 29th Dec

    The main event on tomorrow's card at Leopardstown is Hurricane Fly vs Jezki fr the umpteenth time in the last couple of years. It's a race to look forward to right enough, but the Grade 1 Topaz Novice Chase that follows it around ninety minutes later is the race of the day in my opinion and arguably the best novice chase of the season so far. It's a contest choc full of promising jumpers and my only angle on the race is the thought that Apache Stronghold was initially priced with his trainer's comments that the step up to three miles might not suit over factored into one or two of the earlier bookmakers markets. I backed the horse in the Drinmore over two and a half miles and looking back he did well to finish as close as he did to the impressive winner given that he didn't jumped that well throughout the race. I think he's well capable of bettering that effort tomorrow, especially as he jumped left at a number of obstacles at Fairyhouse so Leopardstown should suit him better. Yes he may not stay but at his price I'm prepared to pay to find out. The opposition looks strong of course and Mala Beach is feared most. He's a horse who jumps and travels really well and three miles will bring out the best in him. The same comments apply almost equally to Don Poli and it should be a cracking race.

Topaz Novice Chase:
Apache Stronghold £40w @ 10/1 (2nd)

(+461.25)

Leopardstown - 28th Dec

    Before I detail my thoughts on the Lexus Chase tomorrow I have some thoughts on the action thus far this Christmas. The obvious place to start is the King George which financially was a bit of a disaster for me. Silviniaco Conti was deeply impressive and the tactics were excellent given the opposition but I doubt similar ones would be employed in a Gold Cup. I'd want to be against him at short odds in March but it's finding one to go to war with. Champagne Fever jumped superbly but was just a bit too free, probably because he wasn't allowed to lead. I immediately took some 12/1 about him for the Ryanair after the race and I can see him bossing the race from the front like Cue Card did a couple of years back. The only problem is the Champion Chase could be a possible target. But at a double figure price I'm prepared to bet that team Ricci/Mullins will figure out that not being able to beat Western Warhorse last March over two miles would make him vulnerable over the minimum trip.

    Faugheen provided better news for the stable half an hour before the big race but in all honesty he didn't really tell us anything new and some bookmakers have over-reacted to his win. Stan James actually make him even money and have pushed out Jezki to 13/2 which I have taken. The defending champ has rock solid Cheltenham form and will be a far tougher nut to crack than anything Faugheen has faced thus far in his career.

    Onto the Lexus. This is turning into a Mullins themed entry as my bet in the race is Boston Bob. I'm surprised he's as big as 11/2 given that three miles will probably be his optimum trip and I wouldn't say he's been disappointing at all this season. He needed it first time out at Down Royal when Road to Riches (main danger imo) had a major fitness advantage and was beaten by a high class two and half mile chaser next at Punchestown. His trainer has said that he thinks the ground has gone against him but his form on heavy as a novice hurdler somewhat contradicts this and I don't think he's that ground dependent. He can get behind in his races but I doubt Road to Riches will go off as fast as he did in November as his pace that day was shrewdly enforced to take advantage of that fitness advantage. I think Boston Bob is basically a better horse than Lord Windermere and I would love to see him beat him out of sight after that nightmare RSA fall a couple of years back and Bob's Worth whilst respected doesn't look the same horse to me that won the Gold Cup and somewhat lucked out winning this last year when they went no gallop and the opposition was light compared to this renewal.

Lexus Chase:
Boston Bob £40w @ 11/2 (lost)

(+501.25)

Kempton - 26th Dec

    The market for tomorrow's King George has changed fairly radically over the last few days with Cue Card, whom I backed last weekend, shortening all the time. I topped up slightly at 7s a day or so ago just as momentum was building behind him but I'm more interested in backing Champagne Fever now at the odds. This Mullins creature is my main fancy for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and I was willing to let him run with my best wishes but no cash down when he was 7/2 but at 11/2 in a place this morning he is just too big not to back now. The market as it stands is made by Silviniaco Conti who is woefully short at 5/2. Yes he won the race last year but the ground will be a lot faster this time around and it will suit others far more. Champagne Fever is bred to stay, jumps like a stag and his poor runs around this time of year the last two seasons were both on soft ground. The other thing to bear in mind is that he will trade shorter in running given the way he's likely to be ridden so appeals as a back to partial lay proposition.

    Of the others I think Al Ferof, Dynaste and Menorah are all priced fairly accurately (although if I was to produce a book on the race I would be slightly bigger on the latter two.) One I like at a price is Wonderful Charm. I backed this horse for the RSA last season as I think he's a high class staying chaser in the making but his trainer until now has resisted stepping him up in trip. He stayed on really well behind Wishfull Thinking last time out and as long as his rider isn't too harsh on him once he comes off the bridle (he doesn't travel brilliantly and will find the pace quite hot) he will stay on and has place claims. At present he'd trading at around 10.5 on the machine in that market but I think he'll be much bigger IR. I'll be asking for 20 before the race.

Finally, Merry Christmas to anyone who reads this. Whether by accident or design.


King George VI Chase:
Cue Card £10ew @ 10/1 and £10w @ 7/1 (lost)
Champagne Fever £60w @ 11/2 (lost)
Wonderful Charm (IR £15@ 20 to place requested) (lost)

(+541.25)

Ante-Post

    Possibly the biggest news in the last few days from an ante-post point of view was Sky Bet (who have changed hands recently) offering NRNB on the four Championship races at the Festival. I immediately had a look at their odds for those races and despite being tempted by Jezki at 5s for the Champion Hurdle the one bet I went with was Felix Yonger at a large looking 33/1 for the Queen Mother. This horse ran well in winning a relatively minor event first time out recently on really bad ground that he doesn't like and if we got decent underfoot conditions in March and he ran in the race he'd be much shorter than 33/1 I would think.

    Since my last post I've topped up a few of my Cheltenham positions including that of Josses Hill in the Arkle. I was quite pleased with his first run over fences last week. Yes he didn't jump very economically but the horse was on the sidelines until September and can only improve. I'm very much glass half with this animal and considering the energy he lost jumping as big and awkwardly as he did together with travelling with lots of freshness he did well to finish as close as he did. I'd be very afraid of Vautaur long term but not Un De Sceaux so much.

    Finally I've taken a bit of 10/1 about Cue Card for the King George on Boxing Day. The ground looks like being on the good side of good to soft which will really suit him. He emptied in this last season around two out but with better ground and a more restraining ride I think he's got every chance of getting home. I'll write more about the race nearer the time.

   

King George VI Chase:
Cue Card £10ew @ 10/1



--
Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £40w @ 107/10

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £20w @ 17/1

Queen Mother:
Simonsig £10w @ 14/1
Felix Yonger £10ew @ 33/1 NRNB

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £20w @ 5/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1
Wonderful Charm £5w @ 156/1

Ascot - 20th Dec

    The bet I placed earlier in the week on Shelford for today's Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot looks in excellent nick now as his price has pretty much halved since Monday. I can understand this contraction given the strength of his form and the underfoot conditions he'll encounter. My one concern was the trip but the very soft ground will put the emphasis firmly on stamina even over two miles and It's very hard to seem him out of the frame. My normal tactic is to top up bets as we get closer to the day but this time I've decided to cover on Clondaw Warrior simply because he's the only other horse in the race I fear. He ran a fine race in the Greatwood Hurdle last time out when the lack of a decent gallop was against him. I thought Vaniteux ran well behind The New One last week and franked the form. I think Activial is overrated.

Ladbroke Hurdle:
Shelford £15ew @ 12/1 (4th)
Clondaw Warrior £25w @ 9/1 (lost)

(+646.25)

Ante-Post

    I've taken 12/1 about the Dan Skelton trained Shelford for the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot this coming Saturday. His win last time out at Chepstow in October was firmly franked when runner-up Aubusson won the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock a fortnight or so ago and although he's gone up seven pounds for that win Aubusson himself was six pounds higher from Chepstow so there's no doubt Shelford is one well handicapped animal. It'll be a competitive event no doubt but I'm confident he'll be placed at least and with plenty of rain forecast his form over further than two miles will be handy a handy asset.

     Josses Hill is entered up for a Novice Chase at the same venue on Friday. He's the horse I've been most looking forward to seeing this Jumps season and I believe he'll be special over fences. It's pleasing to see him out before the new year given that he didn't school until September. He must be coming along nicely at home.

Ladbroke Hurdle:
Shelford £15ew @ 12/1

--
Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £15w @ 20/1

Queen Mother:
Simonsig £10w @ 14/1

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £20w @ 5/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £20w @ 17/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1
Wonderful Charm £5w @ 156/1

Cheltenham - 13th Dec

    I don't fancy anything over much today but I think Ataglance is worth a little tickle in the
December Gold Cup at Cheltenham. It's a very weak edition of a race with a terrific roll of honour and the selection is weighted to beat hot favourite Caid de Berlais on a line of form through Present View. Collateral form can be a shaky concept to hang your hat on but at around 10/1 in a poor enough renewal I think I can force myself into a bet, expecially given Ataglance's liking for the track.

    The 20/1 I took about King's Palace for the RSA before the season started is more of a winter warmer than any of my other Cheltenham positions at this stage and I was really impressed with him yesterday. He jumped with ultra economy and at this stage the only worry I have is whether or not he'd sulk if being taken on for a lead. Did this happen in the Albert Bartlett? It's possible, but I'm more of a mind that his lack of a prep run just caused him to race with an excess of freshness. I'm pleased he misses the Feltham and will probably just have a nice little prep run, ideally at headquarters again, in the new year.

December Gold Cup:
Ataglance £30w @ 10/1 (lost)

(+641.25)

Aintree & Sandown - 6th Dec

    I'm excited about today's cards and have managed to find three bets, which is quite high for me on a non Festival type day. I mentioned my liking for Mendip Express in the Becher Chase earlier in the week and I'm quite suprised he's available at 14/1 this morning. It is a race with dangers aplenty of course but it's a test that I think will really suit the horse. He travels and jumps well and is just a mean physical specimen with loads of scope. 14/1 with 5 places paid are generous each way terms.

    The Tingle Creek is the big race of the day and whilst I can understand why Balder Succes and God's Own are the prices they are I want to take them on because I think both are a tad overrated. The former has the better form and should come on for his run giving weight behind the latter in the Haldon Gold Cup but he ran poorly at this meeting last year. God's Own looks a high class chaser in the making but things very much went his way in both his last two wins with some of his opponents running well below par and again I'd like to take them on. I've selected Dodging Bullets who looks overpriced at 10/1. When I'm looking at a race one of the methods I use in attempting to unearth a bit of value is price comparing certain animals in the market and in this race today I don't believe Vukovar and Oscar Whisky should be shorter than Dodging Bullets. Vukovar is priced up mainly on promise and a pinch of hype and Oscar Whisky surely needs further than two miles and is vulnerable from a jumping point of view at this track. There was a lot to like about the selection's run behind Uxizandre at the open meeting first time up (the front two that day had the advantage of a run beforehand) and whilst on a line through Simply Ned he has around 4 lengths to find on Balder Succes he should come on for that run at Cheltenham (as most of Nicholls do) and 10/1 is very fair.

    Finally I can't resist an interest in horse I backed a couple of times last season. Amore Alato is a nice front running hurdler Nick Williams trains and he has some very nice form in the bank from his novice days including fine runs in defeat behind Irving and Lac Fontana. He's off 137 today and has decent claims at 9/1. This will be his first run of the season which is a possible concern and for that reason I'm attempting a back and partial lay strategy on him. As a strong travelling front runner he should trade much shorter than his current price in running at some stage.

Becher Chase:
Mendip Express £10w @ 12/1 & £15ew @ 14/1 (5pl) (2nd)

December Handicap Hurdle
Amore Alato £45w @ 95/10 (IR lay of £15 @ 6) (2nd)

Tingle Creek:
Dodging Bullets £25w/£10pl @ 10/1 (won)

(+671.25)

Ante-Post

    In my entry on Sunday I mentioned that I was happy to take some 5/1 about More of That for the World Hurdle after his somewhat disappointing run in the Long Walk at Newbury the previous day. He looked fair tubby and a fitter horse on better ground will soon put that run behind him. The form of his World Hurdle victory last March looks rock solid and he'll be incredibly hard to beat on the day if he gets there.

    Nearer to hand this weekend sees the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown and a nice looking card at Aintree. The Tingle Creek itself looks a ropey looking renewal this time around with almost all the star two milers out of action and I expect I'll be leaving it alone. I do like the look of one in the Becher Chase though, Saturday's main race at the Merseyside venue. Mendip Express is a big, strong chaser who jumps and travels extremely well. His run at Cheltenham at the turn of the year was incredibly eye catching and I think this test over the National fences will suit him down to the ground. The trip (3m2f) is probably around his optimum and plenty of rain is forecast later in the week so the ground should be fine. Naturally it's a competitive looking contest but I think there's plenty of mileage in the selection's price and I expect a good run. Once again he's a most promising chaser with so much scope (not many starts at all under rules given his age.)

Becher Chase:
Mendip Express £10w @ 12/1

--
Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £15w @ 20/1

Queen Mother:
Simonsig £10w @ 14/1

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £10w @ 14/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £20w @ 5/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1
Wonderful Charm £5w @ 156/1