King George Bet

Finally sorted my bet out of Barbers Shop but i've decided to leave Albertas Run alone

Barbers Shop £20win @ 24/1 £10pl @ 7/2

I've also had a look at the market without Kauto Star and like Madison Du Berlais at 9/2. He ran below form last time out behind Kauto Star and Imperial Commander but traditionally needs his first run of the year and I think with the latter being better going left handed is the main danger to the favourite. I have also had a sneaky tenner on him in the outright market just in case Kauto is on the downgrade.

Madison Du Berlais £30win @ 9/2 W/O Fav £10win @ 12/1 outright

King George

Kauto Star goes for a fourth King George Chase on Boxing Day but he has a lot of miles on the clock and for me he could be vulnerable this year. That said he can obviously win this running up to a stone below his very best and it's more the Gold Cup I can't see him winning.

An odds-on shot and a second favourite who isn't as good going right handed equals mucho each way value further down the list and i'm gonna have win and place bets on Barbers Shop and Albertas Run. Both will be ideally suited by the distance/track and I see at least one of them making the frame.

I haven't sorted my bets out yet and will post them as soon as they are made.

Hennessy

Fascinating race today at Newbury and I really like Denman and Killyglen. The former everyone knows about and although he's running off 174 today I still thnk he may be well handicapped (Imperial Commander has been put up to the same mark after the Betfair Chase yesterday) and for me he's a backable price because of his much publicised issues last year.
Killyglen is in my ten to follow list this year and I think he ran a smashing race first time up over an inadequate 2 and a half miles, the form of which has worked out quite well.
Obviously it's a really competitive race and there are some nicely weighted horses trading at tempting prices like Gone to Lunch, Nenuphar Collonges and My Will but i'll stick with the two selections. I think Barbers Shop, Cappa Bleu and What a Friend are poor value and make the race from a betting angle.

Denman £25win @ 47/10
Killyglen £20win @ 9/1

Haydock - Betfair Chase Day

I'm going to Haydock today and already have a position on Kauto Star. Worries about the ground and the fact that he tipped up in this race a year ago meant he was trading at 2.28 on Betfair yesterday. I took that for £75 and expect him to be odds-on as the money comes in for what is a very public horse. I intend to lay off £35 at around 1.9 if possible. I think the fact that he comes here fresh as opposed to running at Down Royal like last year is the key thing in making him a bet today. He has a huge amount in hand from a form point of view and should be odds-on. Notre Pere is a horse I like but not over 3 miles on a tight track. I consider Madison Du Berlais to be the main danger and may back him on course.

Diamond Harry is also a horse I will be backing on the track in the handicap hurdle.

Cheltenham - Open Meeting

The first big Jumps fixture of the season and I have found a bet in the big race. I think i'm gonna have a sneaky each way on Tartak - and i'll be taking the 16s with Paddy Power given the concession they are running (they will refund your stake if one of the Paul Nicholls trained runners wins) rather than the 18s available generally. He ran really well in the Arkle considering he was squeezed out at a time when he was travelling nicely. The trip was on the short side as well that day. I think we're getting a nice price because of his poor run at Aintree but i'm always willing to forgive the odd off day.

On sunday I have already backed James De Vassey in the Greatwood. I've always mulled over the idea of following a stable in the winter game to try and get a better handle on form (flat racing always being my main thing) but i've never quite found the right trainer. I didn't want someone either at the top of the tree or someone who was getting on a bit (toyed with the idea of following Ferdy Murphy a few years ago but felt he was too old) and last year I plumped for Nick Williams as a trainer with a lot of potential and someone who seemed to be getting better and better horses each year. I've already backed Diamond Harry for the RSA Chase at the Festival and James De Vassey strikes me as a sporting bet in what is obviously a very competitive handicap hurdle.

Tartak £25w £15pl @ 16/1 in the Paddy Power.
James De Vassey £20win £10pl @ 10/1 in the Greatwood.

Breeders Cup

I think I may chance Rip Van Winkle this evening at Santa Anita. I'm not sure about O'Brien's ability to recognise when a horse has gone but I do trust him to get a horse who's had the sort of problem's Rip has had to the track and ready to run for his life. I've seen a few of Zenyatta's races on Youtube and she does look top class, but how good are the American fillies she's beat? Ability wise it's more likely she's on a Bank's Hill kind of level (late120's) than a Zarkava (early 130's) and ultimately even if she is in the latter's league a top form RVW would likely beat her. I'd have liked him to have been more impressive at Ascot but I guess the trainer left a bit to work on.

I'm not interested in backing him at British prices but he is a bet at 3/1 or above on the American tote. I won't know the price until after the race so:

£60win @ 3/1 or
£70win @ better than 3s.

My internet at home is down at the moment (posting from work) so will update when I can including summing up this flat season. I will keep the blog going during the Jumps.

Arc

I was so worked up for the Arc because much was riding on ith that I forgot to posts my bets before the race. Didn't help that I was working I suppose. Anyway, i'd already mentioned that I had Fame and Glory so it's not an after-timing post.

Fame and Glory £150win @ 9/1
Cavalryman £25win @ 14/1
Stacelita £35win @ 7/1
Youmzain £30place @ 11/2

Champions Day

Bit late for this as they're going down to the start for the Champion Stakes but I have bets in a couple of races.

First off I have Never on Sunday and Fame and Glory in the Champion and then Darley Sun and Fair Along in the Cesarewitch. No time to explain my resons really apart from to say that Never on Sunday ran a cracker at Royal Ascot and that I think this course will suit him. The O'Brien trained favourite is pretty much a bit of cover as I backed the French colt before the latter was declared for the race.

In the Ces i've always had a soft spot for Fair Along and Darley Sun stands out a mile on the weights. Bad stats means he's available at a backable price.

Never on Sunday £25win £15 Pl @ 9/1
Fame and Glory £40win @ 7/4

Fair Along £20ew @16/1
Darley Sun £25win @ 7/1

PS - I forgot to post my Arc bets - they're to follow.

Cambrideshire

This weekend is my favourite of the whole flat season and as well as having a few bets lined up for the Arc I also have one for Newmarket's big handicap tomorrow.

Sirvino was most impressive when winning the John Smith's at York in June and has been kept fresh for this by his trainer. I always look for a horse that's won over a mile and a quarter for this 9f race over the Rowley Mile and my fancy qualifies on that score and hopefully can follow up like Pasternak did a few years back also at around 10/1. The second at York, who I backed, has run well in a couple of Group races since and overall the form has a solid look to it.

Sirvino £50win @ 105/10

QE11

Short notice this but I did suspect that Delegator may drift to a backable price for this and i'm correct. This morning they were going 8/13 Rip Van Winkle and 9/4 Delegator at Corals and those prices looked the most accurate to me. The Godolphin animal is over 3/1 at Betfair now and he has to be backed at this price.

Delegator £50win @ 41/10

Portland

I put down Johannes as a horse to follow after his win at the Glorious Goodwood meeting. Unfortunately my biggest failing as a punter is a lack of dilligence sometimes. He ran at Ripon on 22nd Auguest but because it wasn't a major maeeting I missed it. He won by 2 lengths plus and would have been a bet at the 9/2 available in the morning. Downer.

Anyway, he runs in the Portland today and his win at the aforementioned Goodwood (an easy 6f) suggests that the 5 and a half furlong trip of this big handicap won't be too much of an inconvenience.

Johannes £50win @ 9/1

St Leger

Not a big fan of this race to be honest as i've only backed the winner once (User Friendly)

But anyway, I think we have an angle with which to attack the contest this year. Basically, I don't like Kite Wood's form and I think the Voltigeur, in which Monitor Closely and Father Time were first and third is pretty worthless given that Harbinger and Alwaary ran way below form. So, that leaves us with Changingoftheguard who ran a terrific race in the Ebor given that he was left at the gate when the stalls opened and had to keep battling through horses, waeaving his way this way and that. The horse is tough, battle hardened and will stay. I make him a decent bet at 100/30. Mourayan has form that ties in with Fame and Glory and although i'd like softer ground for him, he is a plodder who will nevertheless relish the step up in trip. Not convinced he'll win but he's a sporting wach way selection.

Changingoftheguard £40win @100/30
Mourayan £2oEway @ 82/10

5th September

I've already mentioned my ante-post wager on High Standing for today's Sprint Cup at Haydock. I've had a slight top up and also covered on Finjaan. I feel Tregoning's animal may improve for the drop back in trip (he has a very sprint orientated pedigree) and I see him as the main danger.

Over at Leopardstown for the Irish Champion Stakes i'm on Fame and Glory again. I punted him at 7/4 a few weeks with the hope that Sea the Stars wouldn't run but that isn't the case. Luckily the star of the season was a doubt up until today and Betfair lay merchants gave me some 5s for a small amount - since topped up.

Fame and Glory £70w @ 7/4
Sea the Stars £25w @ 37/10

High Standing £40w @ 11/2
Finjaan £25w @ 56/10

High Standing

I've backed this horse in each of his last two wins and shall not be deserting him as he prepares to step up to Group 1 level. I'm not a fan of Group sprints as the horses involved tend to take turns beating each other up. But High Standing brings a different strand of form to the track and at 6/1 for the Haydock Park Sprint Cup in a week or so he must be backed and backed now as I can see him being 7/2 on the day. I'll be topping up nearer the time as well

High Standing £30win @ 6/1 (ap)

York Day 3

I punted Roaring Forte in the big handicap on King George day at Ascot and basically over the straight seven they went too fast and he couldn't get to lead. Round a turn and over a mile today at York I hope the Haggas colt can make amends.

I'm taking on Sariska in the Yorkshire Oaks and she is my first lay of the season. Sea the Stars was a similar price on Tuesday but his form was far more bombproof.

Roaring Forte £40win @ 10/1
Sariska Laid @ 37/100 for £60 (liability £21.60)

York Day 2

Didn't get time to post yesterday but I had two bets that both went down :<

Red Merlin £40win @ 9/1
Changingoftheguard £40win @ 5/2

Ebor Meeting - Day 1

With the International Stakes looking like a walkover for the awesome Sea the Stars i've turned to the Voltigeur for my only bet today. I've already backed Harbinger for the St Leger at 11/2 as I think the colt has bags of scope. His wins at Chester and Goodwood were impressive enough, even more so when one considers what a big horse Stoute's charge is. I think he will relish York and Doncaster as opposed to those tight undulating tracks and the only concern with the Leger bet is that if he is impressive today Sir Michael might sidetrack the final classic. The rest of the contenders today don't frighten me in the slightest, Alwaary for me was flattered to get within 5 lengths of the winner in the King George. Father Time shoulders a penalty and Jukebox Jury won a terrible Group race last time out and hasn't ran over the trip before.

Harbinger £60win @ 21/10

Rose of Lancaster

I like Duncan in the Rose of Lancaster today at sunny Haydock. If you ignore his first career run he's had 8 races and the only time he hasn't been placed were in 3 contests all at Newmarket (two on the Rowley Mile and last time out on the July).

They went a crawl in the Princess of Wales and he never settled. Here, over a shorter trip and with two front runners I think he can put that weak effort behind him. Campanologist seems a different animal away from Ascot and the rest aren't up to much.

Duncan £40win @ 31/10

Nassau

Glorious Goodwood winds down to it's final day and although i've lost out with High Standing not running in the Stewards Cup i'm hopeful of getting compensation in the other big race of the day.

Ghanatti was put in her place in the Sussex Stakes on Wednesday and i've a feeling that the 3yo fillies may not be as good as was first thought. Oaks second Midday and Rainbow View head the market for the Nassau Stakes tomorrow and both should be taken on.

It's interesting that in a 25 race career the Michael Stoute trained Heaven Sent has only run over ten furlongs three times. Two of those were on unsuitably soft ground and the third was in the 2008 renewal of this race. And it could be argued that run was her best ever given the trouble she found in running.

Rainbow View should not be shorter in the betting imo and the likes of Katiyra and Moneycantbuymelove have a lot to find on the form book but are a similar price to my fancy.
With a biggish field i'm slightly concerned about trouble in running so i'll have a piece of the place action as well

Heaven Sent £40win £20pl @ 72/10

King George Saturday

In the King George today i'm fielding against Conduit and Golden Sword, both of whom are poor value imo. I feel Look Here's disappointing run over an inadequate 10f last time out in Ireland is being given too much creedence in this race and I make her a solid betting proposition. Her run in the Coronation Cup was full of merit. She was anchored at the back of the field in a slow run race and almost won, a cracking effort. I also like Tartan Bearer chances and his form over 12f is as good as the favourite's and yet he is trading at 7/2 whereas Conduit is a very skinny looking 2s.

My other bet today is on Roaring Forte in the Handicap before the big race. Like High Standing he is trained by William Haggas and he has similar credentials for a big success. Two comfortable victories in his last two starts and he's not gone up nearly enough to stop him today.

Look Here £50win@15/2
Tartan Bearer £40win@7/2
Roaring Forte £40win@52/10

High Standing

Not happy to see High Standing running in the Shadwell Stakes as I have a lump on him for the Stewards Cup. That said, he has a favourite's chance in a weak looking Group 3 so i've taken some 4.7 on the machine.

High Standing £25win @ 37/10

Johns Smiths

One of my favourite Handicaps and I like Kingdom of Fife for this. His Redcar win has worked out well with the second and third also placing at the Royal Meeting. He's won over the trip and had plenty in hand last time.

Kingdom of Fife £50win @ 62/10

July Cup

I'm not a big fan of Group sprints but I am a fan of Art Connoisseur and have been since the Coventry last year. I didn't even look at the Jubillee as it's a race I try not to get involved in but was delighted that Bell's animal came out on top. One of his victims that day, JJ the Jet Plane is shorter than AC today and that is the angle i'm exploiting. That said, the front two in the market are gonna be tough so it's a place bet only for me.

Art Connoisseur £40place @ 3/1

Ante-Post

I've noticed that I keep saying i've taken this price and that price when I put my bets up (The Eclipse a perfect example) but maybe I should metion it when the price is snapped up.

So, a quick note on the ante-post bets currently in my portfolio, I took 12s :p on Fame and Glory after the Derby for the Arc given that I was pretty sure he would have the perfect prep for that race and wouldn't be targetted at the top 10f races given his pedigree. Bet was topped up after the Irish Derby. After Zarkava last year I can see Stacelita being a lot shorter on the day in October and i'll be keeping her on my side.

Today I took 10/1 on High Standing for the Stewards Cup. He was more impressive than the bare result suggests in the Wokingham and if you take Asset out of the race (an easy thing to do for me given that he is a Group horse) he wins the race easily and when one takes into account the fact that the Haggas trained animal has won at Goodwood already I think we can see that 10s is more than a fair price.

Arc:
Fame and Glory £20 @ 11/1
Stacelita £20 @ 13/2

Stewards Cup:
High Standing £40 @ 10/1

Sea the Stars

Already metioned my thinking behind the Eclipse. He's trading at around 1.70 on Betfair now so i'm in a good position. Only had £12 on at 4s when his Irish Derby run was still on the cards but i've had non-runners aplenty this year so I didn't want to go to mad.

Sea the Stars £60win @ 13/8
Rip Van Winkle £25win @ 9/2

Eclipse

I haven't finished with this race yet but with the doubts about Sea The Stars running in the Irish Derby last week I decided to risk a small amount on him @ 4/1 for the Eclipse. Thing's have worked out well and he heads to Sandown on Saturday as a strong favourite. I have topped up the bet and will do so again. I'm hoping to get a decent amount on him and that i'll end up with 13/8 about an odds on shot. I intend to cover the best with a little on Rip Van Winkle, the only possible danger imo.

Wokingham

One of the most important punting books I read back in the day was the Stewart Simpson entitled Always Back Winners. It influenced my thinking hugely, particulary in the way he selected his hanicappers. His method was to follow a horse who had gone into the lead inside the final furlong and won by at least a length. Today, in the big handicap on the last day of the Royal meeting we have the Haggas trained High Standing who in his last race at Goodwood over the same distance was eased towards the finish and won by a length and a quarter - after only taking the lead entering the final furlong.
After a few more than normal non-runners this year I resolved after Overdose got injured in preparing for the Kings Stand not to bother with the ante-post markets at Ascot. This means my bet on High Standing has been placed today - unfortunately after Pricewise affected the price.

High Standing £50win @ 6/1

Royal Ascot Day 2

Another bad day yesterday. This is the worst start i've ever had to a season but i'll keep plugging away.
The Prince of Wales Stakes has a nice punting shape to it as I think the favourite, Tartan Bearer is quite opposable. I think he's a 12f animal and the short straight at Ascot coupled with the 10f distance will see him struggle. I think it's debatable that he's better than Vision D'Etat in any event. The latter is also the only Group 1 scorer over a mile and a quarter in the line-up and at 7/2 he's a sporting wager. I also think Tazeez is way over priced at 20s.
Lush Lashes will take all the beating in the Windsor Forest.

Vision D'Etat £40win @ 7/2
Tazeez £20EW @ 20/1
Lush Lashes £40win @ 7/4

Queen Anne

Not a very good start to the season, Epsom being expensive in particular. I do expect to get my money back on Fame and Glory though.

Anyway, onto the Royal meeting. I have a strong fancy for Gladiatorius in the opener. He looked a special animal when bolting up from some good opposition in Dubai and I think the general 5/2 available for the Queen Anne is a steal. Yes, the tracks in Berkshire and Dubai are different and yes the Godolphin camp don't inspire much confidence these days. But, the field he races against here is sub Group 1 standard. You have Paco Boy who I doubt stays a stiff mile in top company and this Main Aim animal from Stoute's who was impressive in a really crappy Group 3.

Gladiatorius - £100w @ 5/2

The Derby

Still very, very sweet on Fame and Glory and ultimately I kind of think my fate this flat season rests on him. I have nearly £300 staked on O'Brien's colt, my biggest bet on one horse since Finsceal Beo in the 2007 1000 Guineas. I think people are reading way too much into Mr Murtagh's decision to partner Rip Van Winkle (if it is indeed his decision) and like New Approach last year I believe Fame and Glory should be a strong favourite. His win in the Derrinstown was more impressive than Galileo's and his drift in recent days has seen me put probably too much on. But sometimes you just have to go for it. Gan Amhras is my support bet in the race. Crowded House was backed during the winter.

Fame and Glory £280w @ 4/1
Gan Amhras £50w @ 95/10
Crowded House £30w@ 10/1

The Oaks

I've already posted my thoughts on Rainbow View and although it hasn't rained as I hoped it might the ground should be ok and I make her a solid bet.

£100w @ 46/10

Irish 2000G

Gonna go with Recharge in this. Nice run to best Intense Focus in their trial
I think the Oxx colt is being overbet because of the ground. Can`t have Delegator as I don`t think he`ll stay round this stiff track. I`m not going out to opposing Mastercrafsman lightly although i`m not sure he`ll be totally suited by the heavy ground either. I think he won the National Stakes last year despite rather than because of the underfoot conditions. Recharge`s dam loved deep ground so that`s not putting me off. The stable form does however so i`m going each way.

Recharge £15w @ 15/1 £15pl @ 24/10

Rainbow View

The more I think about this filly the more I fancy her for the Oaks on June 5th. If we ignore the hype that surrounded her run in the 1000 Guineas she ran a fine trial for this. One of the reasons I was against her in the 1000 was because of the way her trainer handled Raven`s Pass last year. He improved throughout the year and I expect the same thing to happen with Rainbow View. The make-up of the Oaks reminds me of Balanchine`s year where she was third favourite behind a couple of trial winners. Classic form is the way to go in the Oaks and i`ve taken an initial position of £40 at a little over 5/1 on Betfair. Assuming the ground comes right i`ll be topping up the closer we get to the race.

Derby Thoughts

I went into the winter with a little bit of 9/1 about Crowded House for the Derby. He re-appears on Thursday in the Dante and has been diposed by two horses as market leader for the big race. First off Sea the Stars laid his claim in emphatic terms with his victory in the 2000 Guineas and whilst he may indeed stay the 12f at Epsom I don`t think the extra distance will bring much improvement out of him. He`s really short in the betting for me and well worth taking on. As a Bolger fan I took some 10s on Gan Amhras after his splendid 2000 Guineas run. His pedigree screams a mile and a half and under normal circumstances i`d be really flying into this one. However, Fame and Glory`s presence is a major fly in the ointment. I was impressed with his Ballysax win and was surprised that a lot of talk in the build up to the Derrinstown was of Mourayan actually reversing earlier form. Anyway, I had a pony on the O`Brien colt at 7/1 on saturday evening on anticipation of his price shortening the following day. Sure enough F&G was most impressive and now must rate the most likely winner of the Derby. From my point of view I have nice prices on the new favourite and Crowded House but was a little hasty with Bolger's charge. I will be sitting tight until after the Dante when I will think about where I want to be with the race.

French Guineas

I like Naaqoos in the Poulains tomorrow. His task in the Prix Djebel looked straightforward and whilst he was disappointing the word is that his trainer left a bit to work on and probably thought he could win his trial without being near his best.
A very attractive 2yo who looked to have bags of scope, I can`t believe he hasn`t trained on and at 5/1 I make him a decent bet. Of the opposition, Vocalised looks a bit exposed and hasn`t any form at a mile yet despite the fact that he`s had a few runs already this season. Westphalia was half a stone behind Naaqoos on 2yo ratings and AOB rarely sends his best horses to Paris for their Guineas.

Naaqoos - £60win @ 5/1

Guineas Aftermath

Looked a decent quality renewal of the 2000. Lost £200 on the race overall but plenty of clues to future races were evident and hopefully the race will pay it`s way in good time. The winner is now quite a short price for the Derby and whilst I respect his chances i`ll be looking elsewhere for the winner. Gan Amhras is the horse i`ll be taking out of the race - his pedigree screams 12f and he`ll be my Derby selection (along with Crowded House who I backed over the winter).

Rainbow View didn`t like the ground apparently in the 1000. She`ll be interesting if turning up for the Oaks.

1000 Guineas

This race looks Rainbow View`s for the taking in theory. But i`ve always had a feeling since the Autumn that she was vulnerable and opposable at short odds. My original selection is a non-runner (Proportional) and as a big Jim Bolger fan i`ve sided with Cuis Ghaire at decent odds. She ran well behind Rip Van Winkle last July carrying a penalty and at around the 16/1 mark is worth a small investment.

Proportional - £38win NR
Cuis Ghaire - £25win, £15pl @ 16/1

2000 Guineas

My main selection for this year`s race is Mastercraftsman. I remember being most impressed when he won the Phoenix Stakes on fast ground last summer. He drifted for the Guineas after disappointing in the Lagardere but for me he was done for the season after winning the National Stakes on heavy ground in September. I think he has the best form on offer and I began backing him for Newmarket in October when he was 14 on Betfair.
My other bets on the race are on Crowded House (now a non-runner) and Rip Van Winkle. I think Delegator is a really bad favourite (his Craven form more akin to Adagio than Haafhd imo) and has to be opposed.

Mastercraftsman - £100win @ 625/100
Rip Van Winkle - £20win @62/10
Crowded House - £25win NR