Newmarket - 28th Sept

2012 Cambridgeshire Handicap

                                           

Bronze Angel winning the Cambridgeshire last year pretty much made my flat season and really helped cushion the blow that was Orfevre's defeat in the Arc a little over a week later. Twelve months on and both horses are back in their respective races. Nice.

With the Tregoning 4yo it is a negative that he hasn't had a race thus far in 2013 and that has to temper confidence but he won the race last year in the manner of a horse worth putting on the tracker as one to follow, once again being asked to race wider than the main principals just as he had to do in the Britannia when he first appeared on my radar. That Cambridgeshire victory was his first race after his run at the Royal meeting so he has proved that he is best when fresh and given that his trainer has had all of eight winners this flat season I expect him to be ready to run for his life tomorrow. Another plus point is 2013's race really doesn't look as good as 2012's- I was afraid of the likes of Mukhadram and Mull of Killough a year ago but this time around no one horse sticks out as a danger. If my selection is back to his best, and it is an if I do concede that, he will outrun his price big time. Once again in both his big field handicap attempts he has finished impressively on both occasions despite having to cover more ground than his main rivals due to his draw.

EDIT: 28/9
With Bronze Angel being such an important bet I didn't sleep to well last night and was up early looking through the race again. Queensberry Rules of all the runners is the one I worry about. He actually replicated Bronze Angel's finishing position in the Briannia twelve months on earlier in June and although he didn't have to cross most of the width of the track to get involved like the selection did the year before he did have to bob and weave a bit through the field. His runs subsequent (when he seemed to be well backed both times) aren't that relevant as the International at Ascot is over 7f and the handicap at York he was well down the field in last time out was run at a crawl. He's worth a bit of cover.


The Sun Chariot looks a race worth tucking into given the skimpiness of Sky Lantern's price. This filly has been on the go since April when she ran over course and distance in the Nell Gwyn and history shows us that a fresher contender is needed for this contest. Elusive Kate won the Falmouth fair and square and is the best filly in the race on form. I'll take 11/4 all day long in this sort of scenario - and some 5/2 with a nice concession.

Cambridgeshire:
Bronze Angel £90w @ 21/1, £15ew @ 20/1 (5pl) and £20pl @ 11/2 (4pl) (lost)
Queensberry Rules £20ew @ 16/1 (5pl) (lost)

Sun Chariot Stakes:
Elusive Kate £30w @ 11/4 and £25w @ 5/2 (lost)

(+16.3)

Sandown - 18th Sept

It's rare for me to have a bet midweek on a non Festival card but as soon as I saw on Twitter that Sandown had had a lot of rain overnight I became very interested in Penitent in the 3.55. This horse loves the mud, has won twice at the track and his runs behind Gordon Lord Byron in the Foret last season on heavy and Gregorian (giving that horse 5lb) in the Diomed at Epsom in June on good to soft read very well. He should be clear favourite for today's contest but the market is headed by Wentworth. There is a touch of hype about this horse and he has never run on ground softer than good. Readily opposed.

Fortune Stakes:
Penitent £60w @ 202/100 (half my stake BOG) (won)

(+251.3)

Arc Trials Postscript

Orfevre had my spine tingling on Sunday. He won the Prix Foy (against not much opposition I concede) in effortless fashion and he's just a horse with that flash of brilliance about him. I can't see beyond him for the Arc despite Kizuna and Treve also winning their races well. The former is underpriced now and I'd always want to oppose fillies, especially 3yo fillies, at single figure prices for such a massive race. Kizuna will come on stacks for his victory in the Niel and rates the main danger at present. My ante-post on the race is a bit of a mess with non runners aplenty so my hedge on him is reduced to a small double. I held off on topping up on Orfevre until yesterday evening and may go in again nearer the race.

Cambridgeshire:
Bronze Angel £40w @ 21/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Flintshire £15w @ 20/1
Orfevre £50w @ 58/10
Bravodino £5w @ 76/1
Non Runners - £55 lost

Kizuna/Cue Card (King George) £10dbl @ 8/1 and 8/1

Champion Stakes:
Intello £19w @ 78/10


----
King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1
Cue Card £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10

RSA:
Clondaw Kaempfer £4w @ 109/1

Jewson:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)

World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1

St Leger/Arc Trials/A-Post

I can't say I'm a massive fan of our oldest Classic and I don't fancy anything too strongly in the this year's renewal - I find with the trip being an unknown for a lot of contenders there is a lot of guesswork involved in picking one. The one who does standout to me in terms of price is Secret Number who is trading at 20/1 in a place. He was only beaten half a length by Foundry in the Voltigeur and the price differential between those two (Foundry is around 6/1) is excessive. With that being the Ballydoyle colt's first outing of the season I suppose the rationale is that he has more scope than my selection and that is true to a certain extent but then again having your second run of the campaign at Town Moor in a lung bursting race like the Leger is far from ideal in my opinion. This year's race doesn't look choc full of quality and the animals involved who represent the Derby form don't really appeal and neither does the horse who heads the market. They're all just a bit skinny in such an open renewal. Talent should outrun her price and if Secret Number was shorter I might have plumped for her at 12s. My selection isn't bred to particularly thrive over longer distances but he races like he will appreciate the Leger trip and having Alleged as his Damsire can't hurt.

The main action of the weekend is over at Longchamp on Sunday with the Arc trials and the Prix du Moulin. My main two bets for the Arc now that Sky Hunter has been transferred to Godolphin are Flintshire who runs in the Prix Niel and Orfevre who takes in the Prix Foy. Fingers crossed they enhance their claims for the big one. I have had a bet in the Moulin where Magician return to action after a poor run at Royal Ascot where he ran despite injuring himself at home in the days leading up to the St James's Palace Stakes. Before that unfortunate episode this colt looked full of promise and I am happy to take some 4/1 about him for this Group 1 event. Likely favourite Olympic Glory is respected but I have a feeling his run in the Marois wasn't as good as it seemed at the time and I do believe that Magician is simply a better racehorse. I hope to top up on the day.

St Leger:
Secret Number £20ew @ 20/1 (lost)

Prix Du Moulin:
Magician  (NR) £30

(+132.50)

--------------
Cambridgeshire:
Bronze Angel £30w @ 19/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Flintshire £15w @ 20/1
Orfevre £20w @ 76/10
Bravodino £5w @ 76/1
Non Runners - £55 lost

Champion Stakes:
Intello £19w @ 78/10


----
King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1
Cue Card £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10

Jewson:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)

World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1

Haydock and Leopardstown - 7th Sept

A couple of Group 1's on either side of the Irish Sea today and both have contenders towards the head of the betting market that I want to take on.

At my local track I'm against both Lethal Force and Garswood at the prices. The former is the best horse in the Sprint Cup but his high class wins this season have been on fast summer ground and he won't get that today. Garswood hasn't run over this trip as a 3yo and his win in the Lennox at Goodwood reads average at best for the level. He's simply too short. I've sided with the most consistant Gordon Lord Byron who was second in the race last year on faster ground than he encounters today. He doesn't need cut in the ground but he does seem to find one or two with more speed at the end of his races at the top grade on good ground or faster and so good to soft over this stiff 6f is ideal. My only concern is that sprint Group contests are more open to shock results than events over a mile or further, something we saw in the Nunthorpe a fortnight ago. For this reason part of my bet is each way and part with the free bet concession if your horse finishes second. With Ladbrokes joining Hills in offering this via the RP App it's something I'll be taking advantage of more over the coming months.

In Ireland more rain is forecast today and that leaves Declaration of War and The Fugue seemingly at the mercy of Al Kazeem who in theory should return to form after "looking after himself" at York. I'm not convinced the ground is 100% the only reason he ran below his best at the Knavesmire and at the prices none of the front three appeal at all. I have a sneaky that Kingsbarns might actually be up to winning this. For me both Al Kazeen and Declaration of War have been a touch overrated throughout the season and are vulnerable to some new blood. It's a big ask for last year's best 2yo but I'm willing to take it a risk for smallish money.

Sprint Cup:
Gordon Lord Byron £20ew @ 9/2 and £25w @ 9/2 (won)

Champion Stakes:
Kingsbarns £20w @ 7/1 (lost)
Kingsbarns/Orfevre (Arc) £15dbl @ 7/1 and 7/1

(+202.5)