27/12/2010

Lexus Chase

I spent most of the Christmas period anxiously wondering whether or not the King George would get the go ahead and to my disappointment the whole meeting was called off yesterday. I'd prefer the race to be run closer to it's new date of January 15th but at least (for Long Run's sake) it remains at Kempton.

It's been awhile since I had a bet but one of my ante-post fancies for the Festival runs in Ireland's big race tomorrow and I've taken the 7/1 about Pandorama available at Hills. I think you can easily forgive his non-run really in our Hennessy last month and he remains a chaser with a lot of promise. To all intents and purposes this is his first run of the season and there is a possibility he might tire on very deep ground. For this reason I think the safest course would be to take a slice of the 4/1 available about Cooldine. This animal rates the main danger as he was only beaten a neck by Joncol in the Irish Hennessy last season and should be able to turn the tables now.

The rest look either too old, too exposed or are not good enough.

Pandorama £50w @ 7/1 (won)
Cooldine £30w @ 4/1 (lost)


(+681.2)

13/12/2010

Ante-Post Update

16/12/10

After a fantastic day's racing at Fairyhouse on Wednesday Hurricane Fly took most of the headlines but Mikael D'Haguenet was the horse at the forefront of my mind after his run in the Drinmore. He stumbled upon landing at the last and couldn't keep his feet but up until then he had travellend beautifully and I'm convinced he will be a future star. So I have topped up my bet on him for the RSA and just in case Mr Mullins plumps for the Arkle I have opened up a position on that race also.


King George
Long Run £30w @ 6/1
Sizing Europe £20ew @ 16/1

-----------

Cheltenham Festival:

Arkle
Mikael D'Haguenet £5w  @ 17/1

Champion Hurdle
Dunguib £10w @ 23/1

Champion Chase
Master Minded £40w @ 11/2

RSA Chase
Mikael D'Haguenet £25w @ 84/10

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1
Mad Max £5w @ 77/1
Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1
Denman £20w @ 8/1

11/12/2010

Cheltenham - Dec 11th

A terrific card at the track today and whilst I am keen to take on Little Josh in the big handicap chase I can't find anything too appealing in the race now that Barry Geraghty has deserted Mad Max for Dave's Dream. Race of the day for me is the Bula where Menorah takes on Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti. Three classy looking horses that all bring different form lines to a fascinating contest. The layers have Cue Card as favourite at under 2/1 whereas Menorah, who looked ultra classy when winning the Greatwood under top weight, has touched 9/4 on Betfair and that has to be taken. I think the prices for those two are the wrong way round. I also think he will trade shorter in running. I can't rule out Silviniaco Conti but he's stepping back in trip today and that can't be to his advantage against such speedy types.

Menorah £80w @ 9/4 (In Running keep bet for £40 @ 16/10 placed) (won)


(+361.2)

10/12/2010

Cheltenham - Dec 10th

Today's Cross Country race at Cheltenham has to pass an inspection at 10.30 but if it gets the go ahead I like the look of Maljimar. Last year's renewal of this contest was his first try at this sort of event and he ran a cracker all things considered beaten around 3 lengths into third behind Garde Champetre and Sizing Australia - both of whom renew rivalry today. The former is approaching 12 years of age and may not be as good as he was, and my fancy is 5lbs better off with the latter. Sizing Australia may be a couple of years younger than Maljimar but he's quite experienced over these obstacles and for me isn't open to as much improvement over them, Nick Williams charge looking a tad uncomfortable initially last year before finding his rhythm late on.

Maljimar £40w @ 82/10


Void - Race Abandoned

03/12/2010

Ante-Post Update

Up until Saturday my position on the Cheltenham Gold Cup was that I thought we'd have a new winner as the so called big three were all getting on a bit and were a bit short in the betting for me. Denman's performance in the Hennessy changed that and the fact that he will go to the Festival without another race is a big plus as I think he left his Gold Cup behind when falling in the Aon at Newbury last season. As for the winner, Diamond Harry is some beast when he gets into a nice rhythm but I have my doubts about that happening at Cheltenham.
I've not had a bet on the Champion Hurdle yet but I note that Binocular has drifted to a generally available 9/2 and his conqueror the other day, Peddlers Cross, is only 6s. That price differential needs to be wider and I've asked for 5.8 on Betfair.

King George
Long Run £20w @ 6/1
Sizing Europe £20ew @ 16/1

-----------

Cheltenham Festival:

Champion Hurdle
Dunguib £5w @ 23/1

Champion Chase
Master Minded £40w @ 11/2

RSA Chase
Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 9/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5W @ 10/1

Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1
Mad Max £5w @ 77/1
Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1
Denman £20w @ 8/1

26/11/2010

Hennessy Gold Cup

I've already posted my thoughts on this race. Ten days ago or so I wrote::
Diamond Harry is a horse I've mentioned a lot of here and he has to be backed for the Hennessy in a couple of weeks. He races off a mark in the early 150s and whilst I love Denman to bits Nick Willimas star animal is incredibly well handicapped even if he will be a few pounds out of the handicap. I can't see the tank giving him almost two stone. Pandorama is also a second season chaser with scope who must go close under 10st. There are a lot of horses in this race who are either too slow, or too past it to be contenders and for me it is possible to narrow it down to three or four live contenders - one of which is Denman of course.
Nothing has changed and I have also backed Pandorama, an animal who must be respected off 10st given how his form worked out last year with Weapon's Amnesty. Weird Al and if course Denman are my idea of the dangers but for me are unbackable at current prices. Indeed the latter makes the race from a punting point of view as he has an awful lot on his plate compared to when he won his other Hennessy's. There are a number of other animals in the race like Neptune Collonges, Taranis and Madison du Berlais who totally do not fit the profile of a live contender given that this race usually goes to a promising young chaser. And Burton Port looks very flattered by his run in the RSA.

Diamond Harry £60w @ 8/1 (won)
Pandorama £30w @ 9/1 (pu)


(+251)






20/11/2010

Haydock - Nov 20th

A good days racing with nice cards at Ascot and Haydock. At the former Zaynar and Master Minded, two animals I've backed ante-post for the Festival, have their season openers and whilst I'll be punting neither I'm hoping for good displays naturally.

It's to my local track where the betting action is and first off we have James de Vassy, a horse from the Nick Williams stable who I followed closely last year. He was placed in the Greatwood and Coral Cup at Cheltenham and although this is a tough race with a particulary well-in favourite who won at the Open meeting last week it certainly isn't as tough as a Festival handicap. My selection is a hurdler who looks like a chaser and should be up to carrying his fairly big weight.

In the Betfair Chase I was originally keen to back Nacarat at a big price but I don't really think he's up to beating Imperial Commander so instead I have laid What a Friend who is criminally short. This horse for me is the most overrated chaser is training. Two Grade 1 wins last season don't tell the story as he was gifted both for one reason or another. On ratings he is no better than Nacarat or Planet of Sound and yet is half the price and more of both of those creatures.


James de Vassy £40w @ 64/10 (lost)
What a Friend Laid @ 7/2 for £40 (Liability £140) (lost)


(-177)

15/11/2010

Ante-Post Update

Time for an update after a rather poor Open meeting. Long Run didn't do his chances in the King George a lot of good with  a disappointing run in the Paddy Power. Diamond Harry is a horse I've mentioned a lot of here and he has to be backed for the Hennessy in a couple of weeks. He races off a mark in the early 150s and whilst I love Denman to bits Nick Willimas star animal is incredibly well handicapped even if he will be a few pounds out of the handicap. I can't see the tank giving him almost two stone. Pandorama is also a second season chaser with scope who must go close under 10st. There are a lot of horses in this race who are either too slow, or too past it to be contenders and for me it is possible to narrow it down to three or four live contenders - one of which is Denman of course.


Hennessy
Diamond Harry £30w @ 76/10
Pandorama £10w @ 9/1


King George
Long Run £10w @ 11/2
Sizing Europe £20ew @ 16/1

Cheltenham Festival:

Champion Chase
Master Minded £40w @ 11/2

RSA
Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 9/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1
Mad Max £8w @ 77/1
Punchestowns £7w @ 25/1

14/11/2010

Open Meeting - Day 3

Great card today at Cheltenham and I have identified three wagers. In the 2m chase I can't understand why Tataniano is favourite over Forpadytheplasterer when the latter gets 5lbs from him. The Nicholls horse looks a tad overrated to me and I think he had a big freshness advantage over his field (didn't run at the Festival) when winning at Aintree in April.

The big race of the day is the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle and I really like Get Me Out of Here for this. He was an unlucky second in the Supreme last March when Menorah kind of barged into him just when my selection was getting going and he's a horse with a lot more scope than his rivals today. I'm gonna forgive him his poor run first time out and put it down to needing the race. He's a big strapping chaser type who will carry the weight today with minimum fuss.

As a follower of the stable I have to be with For Non Stop in the other hurdle race over 2m5f. Nick Williams charge absolutely dotted up first time out running off 112 at Chepstow and you have to think he's going to end up being a 140+ animal under this shrewdest of trainers.


Forpadytheplasterer £30w @ 7/4 (lost)
Get Me Out of Here £40w @ 13/2 (lost) 
For Non Stop £40w @ 11/2 (lost)


(-175)



11/11/2010

Open Meeting - Day 2

I've already posted my thoughts on this race already and nothing has changed. Was a bit worried about really soft ground  for Mad Max but that isn't an issue really. The sponsors are going 1/4 the odds for 5 places which is really worth tucking into. This really is a fantastic renewal and I see it as a race between Long Run and Mad Max.


Long Run £30w @ 36/10 (lost)
Mad Max £10w @ 12/1 and £15ew @ 8/1 (4th)


(-65)

06/11/2010

Ante-Post Update

I'm posting this having just watched Kauto Star land the big race in Northern Ireland where Sizing Europe ran him to a couple of lengths or so despite not looking totally at home over the fences and not really settling brilliantly either. Much as I respect the great horse I do think he's on the decline now and I have now backed Sizing Europe and Long Run against him when he tries for a fifth King George on Boxing Day.


Paddy Power
Long Run £10w @ 44/10
Mad Max £10w @ 12/1



King George
Long Run £10w @ 11/2
Sizing Europe £20ew @ 16/1

Cheltenham Festival:

Champion Chase
Master Minded £40w @ 11/2

RSA
Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 9/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1
Mad Max £8w @ 77/1
Punchestowns £5w @ 23/1

04/11/2010

Paddy Power - early thoughts.

The weights came out for Jumping's first really big contest yesterday and a couple of horses I've backed already for the King George and the Gold Cup are entered up and I think they're both backable for this race as well. If Long Run is going to trouble Kauto Star at Kempton then he must surely go close in this off a mark in the 150s. I backed him before the weights came out and will top up on the day. Mad Max was running a stormer in the Arkle before making a mistake at the notorious second last and followed up with a nice run at Aintree ( where his main rival ran below par admittedly) and is a top prospect for big honours this year and in the future. He's a massive horse so a big weight won't bother him but his best form is on ground better than soft. Just a small bet has been placed at 12s just in case.

Long Run £10w @ 44/10
Mad Max £10w @ 12/1

02/11/2010

Exeter - 2nd Nov

The NH season is really upon us now and today I have my first bet of the season in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter. Cornas is handled by Nick Williams, a trainer I have followed the last couple of years. The stable is under a big cloud at the moment as their very promising novice hurdler from last year, Me Voici, had a heart attack a week or so ago and is no longer with us. It's a big blow for a small yard to lose such a promising animal and I'm hoping the likes of Diamond Harry, Cornas and James De Vassy can have fine seasons, and they can unearth a couple of future stars to at least in part gain a slice of compensation. My thoughts are with them.
Cornas is a high class handicapper who has a great record at the track having won at Exeter in the past and been placed in this race also. He's had a run already this season and at 4/1 should go well in this race today. Somersby is the main danger to my selection and he's an animal I like a lot. I've backed him for the Cheltenham Gold Cup but hope he needs the run today naturally.

Cornas £40w @ 4/1 (lost)

25/10/2010

Ante-Post Update

With the Flat pretty much done I thought I'd update the blog with my current ante-post positions over the Jumps. I've already noted down a few bets which have since been added to. I have backed Long Run for the King George as I believe Kauto Star is now on the decline and is worth taking on. I also have a double going on him after Workforce won in Paris earlier in the month but I can't really include it here as the bet was placed    after I had posted my Arc bets.

As to the Festival, I can't see Kauto or Denman being involved in the Gold Cup shake up this time which means the market has a lopsided feel to it. I have therefore had a few bob on a variety of big priced animals in the hope that at least two of them line-up for the race at much shorter odds and I can play again - probably covering on Imperial Commander.

Mikael D'Haguenet looked a very special horse when winning the Baring Bingham a couple of years back and I've backed him pretty much knowing hell be a short priced favourite come March and I'll be in an excellent position for the race. Zaynar was backed a while ago with the hope that Big Buck's goes chasing. That's not looking likely at the moment but one never knows.

I'll be posting regular updates and my thoughts on the Festival as the winter progresses.

*Update* 30/10
Most of my punting action takes place on Betfair and I don't look at the odds from regular bookmakers as often as I probably should. For the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Festival the exchange has Master Minded the clear favourite by half a point from Big Zeb and yet Stan James has the latter at 3/1 and the former at 11/2. That is just plain wrong. Nicholls charge is a horse that has been a tad overrated in the past but he's still young enough to do himself justice and two things stick out from last year's poor campaign. He was injured when failing to give weight on his seasonal reappearance and even though he was disappointing in the Champion Chase he has had a breathing operation since. In summary I think the prices quoted are the wrong way round and 11/2 has to be taken.







King George
Long Run £10w @ 11/2

Cheltenham Festival:

Champion Chase
Master Minded £40w @ 11/2

RSA
Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 9/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1
Mad Max £8w @ 77/1
Punchestowns £5w @ 23/1

23/10/2010

RP Trophy

As the flat draws to a close I have maybe a couple of chances to turn a small loss overall into a profit and those chances will be Casamento in the Racing Post Trophy this afternoon at Doncaster and Behkabad in the Breeders Cup Turf in a fortnight.

Casamento is the clear form pick in today's Group 1 having been beaten narrowly by the classy Pathfork in the National Stakes on only his second start and then winning the Group 2 that St Nicholas Abbey and Sea the Stars both win on his latest start. He is the favourite today but I expected 9/4 or maybe 5/2 to be his price not the 4.1 available on the exchanges. His main challenger, Dunboyne Express, has not raced since July and has had setbacks but he does have a chance on form tie-ins with my selection. I'm not sure the animals he has beat are ones to be trusted in terms of collateral form however and I think you have to go with the proven Group form. None of the others appeal.


Casamento £40w @ 41/10 (won)

(-88.77)

16/10/2010

Champions Day II

I've already posted my views on the Champion Stakes, a race that has cut up nicely and where I think Vision d'Etat will take a lot of beating. As well as that horse I think 7/2 on Glass Harmonium to place is a good price as well. He went into my notebook with a good run in the Prince of Wales where he didn't get a brilliant run on the outside but plugged on gamely nevertheless.

In the Dewhurst the rain they had last night is good news for Dream Ahead who should be a lot closer to Frankel in the market. 

Vision d'Etat £40w @ 42/10 (lost)
Glass Harmonium £25pl @ 37/10 (lost)

Dream Ahead £40w @ 3/1 (lost)


(-206.57)

11/10/2010

Champions Day

The five day decs are out for the final proper Champions Day jamboree at Headquarters and as ever it's a meeting to savour.
On the racing forum I post in I noted that five of he first six in the betting were terrible prices which left crack French 5yo Vision d'Etat (a horse that saved my bacon after a terrible start to my season last year at the Royal meeting in June) as the only animal for me near the top at the market at anything like a backable price. He's only had a couple of runs this year which means he'll be fresh, but there isn't that much evidence he's as good as he was in 2009. On balance with favourite Twice Over looking well dodgy given how much racing he's had this year and QEII winner Poet's Voice looking overrated on form and a possible non-stayer I make my selection a decent enough punt.

Race of the day though is the Dewhurst, a contest that pits three top, top quality 2yos against each other and may well be the race of the year.
Frankel looked Arazi like in winning the Royal Lodge and I hesitate in taking him on but Dream Ahead won the Middle Park (on this course) by nine lengths against what was a better field and anything over 3/1 will be taken on the day.

Champion Stakes:
Vision d'Etat £29w @ 9//2

02/10/2010

Prix de l'arc de Triomphe

I've posted my views on this race already in my ante-post updates and all I really have add is an update on my bets as I have backed Behkabad and Planteur again.

The ground is riding on the soft side and I have to say with the book I have that I will be fairly devastated if I haven't found the winner this year. I don't see Behkabad as a particulary good value bet but I'm so far ahead of the odds with the price I have on Planteur that I can afford to play again and not worry too much about that.

Planteur £60w @ 12/1 £20pl @ 9/2 (lost)
Fame & Glory £40w @ 13/2 (lost)
Behkabad £40w @ 4/1 (lost)

(-101.57)













Newmarket - 2nd Oct

Cambridgeshire day at Newmarket and unfortunately Forte Dei Marmi doesn't run but there are two or three animals who are very interesting contenders. Taqleed and Nationalism both have form on the prevailing softish ground, both are trained by John Gosden who has a great record in the race and both won their last contests with plenty in hand. As I've said on here before in handicaps I look for horses who lead inside or just outside the final furlong and go onto win by a length or more. These animals do not have their ratings raised as much as they should do and it's a system that has done well for me over the years. Both Taqleed and Nationalism fit this profile and I have backed them both.

Forte Dei Marmi £10w @ 165/10 (NR)
Nationalism £25w @ 7/1 (Lost)
Taqleed £25w  10/1 (Lost)

(+58.43)

18/09/2010

Newbury - 18th Sept.

Can't say I was happy to see my Cambridgeshire fancy Forte Dei Marmi declared to run today but I suppose the trainer thinks this contest at Newbury today will take less winning than the big handicap at Newmarket.

My reasons for punting him for the Cambs' stand so it would be cazy not to back him today.

Forte Dei Marmi £40w @ 62/10 (Won)

(+118.43)

12/09/2010

Ante-Post Update

Well, Planteur was caught on the line by Behkabad in the Niel but they both ran well clear of the third and it'll be tough to split them in three weeks. Considering the prices I have on both Fame & Glory and Planteur are so large compared to their current odds I think it's justified covering my stake in the win market on Behkabad. So:

Arc
Fame & Glory £40w @ 13/2
Planteur £40w @ 145/10 £20pl @ 9/2
Behkabad £20w @ 4/1

Cambs
Forte Dei Marmi £10w @ 165/10

-------------------------------------

Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1
Mad Max £5w @ 60/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1


11/09/2010

Arc Trails

Big day in France tomorrow and I'll be nervous as Planteur takes on Behkabad again in the Prix Niel. But for a bet I come to the Prix Vermeille where the odds are all wrong. Prix De Diane winner Sarafina is a fine filly but she should not be favourite for this with Sariska and Midday in opposition. Sariska didn't come out of the stall in the Yorkshire Oaks so any bet on her is fraught with danger but of course we get better odds as well. I have to cover on Midday as she won the race that day in great style and should be the market leader.

Sariska £40w @ 43/10 (lost)
Midday £25w @ 29/10 (won)

(-117.17)

07/09/2010

Ante-Post Update

Between the Saturday of the Glorious Goodwood meeting at the start of August and the St Leger in a few days the weekend racing on offer tends to be of an average to poor standard and oftentimes I don't even bother looking. That was a mistake when I missed out on backing Forte Dei Marmi in his recent victory at Sandown. I had steamed into Luca Cumani's colt in the John Smith's at York where he disappointed on a track he may not like (well beaten twice on the Knavesmire now)
But hopefully I'll get some compensation in October as the horse is entered in the Cambridgeshire and I have taken an early price for a small amount. The winning distance at Sandown was a length but the fact that he only took the lead in the last 100 yards of that contest suggests that the 4lbs he's been raised is well on the conservative side.

Arc:
Fame & Glory £40w @ 13/2
Planteur £40w @ 145/10 £20pl @ 9/2

Cambrideshire:
Forte Dei Marmi £10w @ 165/10

---------------------------------
Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

04/09/2010

Ante-Post Update

The topping up has continued in the Arc market and I'm really trying to get a big win out of Planteur.

Arc:
Fame & Glory £30w @ 7/1
Planteur £30w @ 16/1 £20pl @ 9/2

-------------------------------

Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Haydock - Sept 7th

It's been a while since the blog was updated and simply put I haven't been betting. The flat has been a bit uninspiring this year for me and I just haven't had the volume of bets I normally do.


Anyway, today one of my old favourites, Genki, runs for the first time in Group 1 company in the Sprint Cup and I give give a squeak. There isn't really that much between the top handicappers and the Group horses over sprint trips and with a 100/1 shot winning the Nunthorpe this year who knows what will happen. Genki is also a course and distance winner and has been in really good form (was hamstrung by the draw in both the big handicaps he's run in)

Genki £20w @ 25/1 £25pl @ 6/1 (3rd)

(-145.77)

31/07/2010

Goodwood - Saturday

Much as I love this meeting I really haven't fancied much, hence my lack of activity on this blog. Today however I do have a couple of wagers.
In the Nassau Stakes we have Stacelita available to back at a little under 4/1 and Midday is 9/4. Yet, on a line through Dar Rei Mi and Sariska I would say that the former is the better animal. This bet just comes down to the French 4yo being the wrong price. End of.
In the Stewards Cup I am siding with Genki. He won the race last year with tons in hand and although he's rated 106 this time round I'm not too fussed about weight at this track.

Stacelita £40w @ 38/10 (lost)

Genki £40w @ 95/10 (lost)

(-268.27)

28/07/2010

Goodwood - Wednesday

Today Rip Van Winkle bids to become the first horse to win the Sussex Stakes two years on the run. I feel he has a good shot with the 3yo Canford Cliffs a slightly dodgy odds-on shot. The latter has never faced anything in Rip's class before and although O'Brien's horse ran poorly first time out in the Queen Anne I rate him a bet at 11/4 in what is in effect a two horse contest. Fame & Glory was disappointing in his first outing before bouncing back to form and I'm hopeful of a similar thing happening today.

Rip Van Winkle £40w @ 11/4 (won)

(-188.27)

23/07/2010

King George

I have gone through this race when posting my ante-post updates and I am quite sweet on Harbinger. His price hasn't moved much since I backed him a few weeks ago and I did top up a few days ago.

Harbinger £40w @ 100/30 (won)

(-148.27)

15/07/2010

Ante-Post Update

Arc:
Fame and Glory £10@16/1

King George:
Harbinger £20@100/30

Yesterday the Grand Prix De Paris was run in France and I was really taken by Planteur. He finished second but was given a bit of a poor ride by his jockey who had him too far back in a fairly slow run race and went for the whip a bit soon also. At 165/10 on Betfair he makes a fair amount of appeal as support to my Game and Glory wager. I have also topped up on him. So, my positions now are as follows:

Arc:
Fame and Glory £15w @ 10/1
Planteur £10w @ 165/10

King Gorge:
Harbinger £20w @ 100/30

------------------------
Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

10/07/2010

Sat 10th July

I've been on a bit of a losing streak since Royal Ascot but I have a couple of bets today and I'm hopeful of a turnaround.
In the big race at York I've been backing Forte Dei Marmi for this for a few weeks and had him in my notebook since his win in the Zetland race at Redcar. A couple of "unlucky losers" at the Royal meeting has kept his price up and he's my most important bet since last summer.
In the 3.30 at Ascot I really like the look of Arizona John. This was a seemingly exposed 5yo handicapper over around a mile who was stepped up to 10f for the first time in his last race at Pontefract and won his race very cozily. He's out of a Caerleon mare so on the face of it I'm surprised he wasn't moved up before. He rates a decent bet at just over 6/1.

Forte Dei Marmi £60w @ 8/1 (lost)

Arizona John £30w @ 62/10 (lost)

(-281.6)

09/07/2010

July Cup

I'm not really a fan of Group race Sprints and rarely get involved but the way the market has been set up for this race suggests you'd be a fool not to. The Golden Jubilee at the royal meeting was won by Starspangledbanner in impressive fashion but there may have been a draw bias that day and it can be expensive to take form at Ascot literally away from the track - it's a bit of a strange place since they relayed it.

So, I'm going for the scattergun approach and have backed three at big prices each way for small money. Kingsgate Native has won at Group 1 level in the past and I think may be better at 6f than 5f as he ages and of course is now a gelding. This stiff 6 should suit Varenar who won the Foret over 7f last October and Showcasing looked a sprinter of proper quality when winning at York before disappointing in the Golden Jubilee

3x£5 win and 3x £5place on:
Varenar @ 35/1 and 8/1
Kingsgate Native @ 15/1 and 4/1
Showcasing @ 25/1 and 9/2


(-191.6)

08/07/2010

Ante-Post Update

Another update. I'll post details of the bet I have on Forte Dei Marmi for the John Smith's Cup on Saturday tomorrow.
On this up date I will also from now on post the bets I have started to make for next year's Cheltenham Festival. I have also taken a slice of the 4.3 available about Harbinger for the King George at the end of the month. The horses form looks better and better and was given another boost on the July Course today.

Arc
Fame and Glory £10w @ 16/1

King George
Harbinger £20w @ 100/30



Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

05/07/2010

Falmouth Stakes

My biggest winner thus far this year was Special Duty in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. She returns there on Wednesday, admittedly on the July course rather than the Rowley mile, and I think she is a cracking bet at 4/1 for this Group 1. Ballydoyle have the favourite in this in Lillie Langtry and whilst she is to be feared her form suggest she has a similar chance to my choice but is two points shorter in the betting.
This will also be Special Duty's first run on the fast ground she loves since winning the Cheveley Park in October.


Special Duty £40w @ 4/1 (lost)

(-161.6)

03/07/2010

3rd July - Haydock and Sandown

Couple of really good cards today and I have bets in two races.

First off in a really ropey looking Eclipse Stakes at Sandown I want to be against the front three in the market for the following reasons: Twice Over ran poorly in the race last year, Dar Rei Mi is better over further and Zacinto is a miler. That really just leaves Mawatheeq who looked really progressive last year and Viscount Nelson who ran ok in the French Derby. I'm not totally convinced by either of them to be honest but in a really poor renewal they're worth small wagers at relatively decent odds.

In the Old Newton Cup at Haydock Hanoverian Baron stands out like a sore thumb after his win at York last month. These are the sort of horses I want to be with more and more these days - animals who have been winning handicaps fairly easily and not going up that much. It's odds of a shade over 9/2 aren't great on the face of it but compare them to 2/1 about Twice Over in the Eclipse and it's clear where my money should be going. A lot of these big handicaps aren't as competitive as they first appear.

Mawatheeq £25w @ 62/10 (refused to enter stalls - money back)
Viscount Nelson £25w @ 76/10 (lost)

Hanoverian Baron £40w @ 47/10 (lost)

(-121.6)

23/06/2010

Ante-Post Update

My computer has been down the last few days so have been unable to post. I have had a bet on the John Smiths Cup at York on 10th July. Forte Dei Marmi is a Luca Cumani trained animal who went into my notebook when he won the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar at the end of last month. I expected him to run in a race at Royal Ascot but he wasn't declared. I suspected the trainer may be keeping him for this race, a very valuable handicap over an extended 10f and so took some of the 14/1 on Betfair when the odds came out on Sunday. Betfair are the only firm offering odds on this race at the moment.

John Smiths Cup
Forte Dei Marmi £10w @ 11/1


Arc
Fame & Glory £10w @ 16/1

19/06/2010

Royal Ascot - Saturday

No bet yesterday but I have a selection today. I like Genki in the Wokingham, a horse who has shown in the past that he is capable of winning one of these cavalry charges. He was mighty impressive when winning the Stewards Cup last year. He won that race by over a length despite only taking the lead well into the last fueling - a sign that a 7lb higher handicap mark will not stop him today. I expected him to be around 6/1 today so the 9s I got is a nice bonus.

Genki 40w @ 89/10 (lost)

(-56.6)

16/06/2010

Royal Ascot - Thursday


On to the main race on thurday, the Gold Cup. I strongly fancy Ask for this for reasons I mentioned when I backed him ante-post. He's a genuine high class performer who loves the track and on pedigree should stay the trip. I've topped up as well since my initial bet at 7/1. I see Manifest as the only danger with Aidan O'Brien's stable in a funk and have covered my stake with a bet on him.

The other race of interest today is the Ribblesdale Stakes for 3yo fillies. Looks quite competitive but most of the animals at the top of the market make little appeal. The favourite, Principal Role is opposable on form because the horse that was third beaten 4L in her run at Newbury has been beaten a total of 60 odd lengths in her other two starts and looks like she hasn't trained on to me. I think the Oaks form is awful so that rules out Gertrude Bell (this is a bad race for Oaks fillies anyway) and Hannon has a filly who he's run in Italy a couple of times. Not good enough. That leaves Hibaayeb who ran really well in the Prix Saint-Alary behind the subsequent French Oaks winner. I would make her the favourite for this

Ask £80w @ 59/10 (lost)
Manifest £20w @ 4/1 (lost)

Hibaayeb £40w @ 56/10 (won)


(-16.6)

15/06/2010

Royal Ascot - Wednesday

Just the one bet today which I have already discussed the other day, Cavalryman in the Prince of Wales Stakes at 3.50 is worth a bet at a too big looking 12/1

Cavalryman £20ew @ 12/1 (lost)

(-129.4)

Royal Ascot - Tuesday

My bets for the first day of the Royal meeting have already been detailed. I took a chance on Goldikova when she was trading at 7/2 for this before she had her first run and just after Paco Boy won the Lockinge. I have topped up a number of times since then and have also covered with Rip Van Winkle.
In the St James Palace I took 3/1 on 2000 Guineas winner Makfi because it was simply too big compared with Canford Cliffs price.

Goldikova £60w @ 5/2 (won)
Rip Van Winkle £25w @ 3/1 (lost)

Makfi £20w @ 3/1 (lost)

(-89.4)

14/06/2010

Eve of the Royal Meeting

The action starts tomorrow and at present my bets are listed below. Since my last entry I have topped up again on Goldikova. I have also backed Calvaryman for the Prince of Wales because his price is too long. On the face of it he ran a shade disappointingly in the Coronation Cup but he did not like the camber in the straight at Epsom and he should be 7/1 for this not 12s.

Queen Anne:
Goldikova £60w @ 5/1
Rip Van Winkle £25w @ 28/10

St James's Palace:
Makfi £20w @ 3/1

Prince of Wales:
Calvaryman £20ew @ 12/1

Gold Cup
Ask £40w @ 7/1


11/06/2010

Royal Ascot - Gold Cup

This isn't a race I normally get involved with but it has a good shape to it this year from a betting point of view. At present Manifest heads the market at around 7/2 and I think he is worth taking on despite his impressive run last time out at York. That run in the Yorkshire Cup followed up Ask's win in the same race last year and Sir Michael Stoute's animal was just as taking in winning that renewal and yet is available at 7/1 for Thursday's main event. That is just wrong as he loves Ascot, has a touch of class given he was third in the King George last year and should stay given his pedigree.

So, Ask is added to my portfolio for Ascot which is listed below.

Queen Anne:
Goldikova £45w @ 11/4
Rip Van Winkle £25w @ 28/10

St James's Palace:
Makfi £20w @ 3/1

Gold Cup
Ask £40w @ 7/1

09/06/2010

Early Royal Ascot Thoughts

I'm already involved ante-post in the Queen Anne, a race I liked for Goldikova as soon as the prices came out on Betfair. The St James's Palace Stakes is also looking like a high class renewal at this stage and the 2000 Guineas winner Makfi is trading at very nice odds for this. I managed to get £20 matched at 3/1 on Betfair earlier today and his price has moved downwards since then. Canford Cliffs will be a tough nut to crack but the difference in their odds (6/1 - 5/2 now) is too much.
My Goldikova and Rip Van Winkle positions have been topped up and Paco Boy is actually nearly 4/1 for this after being around 9/4 when the prices came out. Reality setting in methinks.

Queen Anne:
Goldikova £45w @ 11/4
Rip Van Winkle £20w @ 28/10

St James's Palace:
Makfi £20w @ 3/1

04/06/2010

Derby

Well, it's going to be an uphill battle to show a profit from this race given the position I had on St Nicholas Abbey but i'm giving it my best shot. When the drift on SNA began I took kept topping up but also took some 7/2 on Jan Vermeer for £60 just in case. Once the dust settled and the market was re-formed I laid £20 back at 9/4 and now I've decided to fire another couple of bullets in the hope that I can at least get some money back. I like the Godolphin horse, Rewilding, as he looks an athletic type with a really good 12f pedigree and the fact that Fabre had him for awhile and has positive comments about him is also a plus sign. To be honest I don't like the likes of Bullet Train, Midas Touch and Workforce and feel their really cramped odds make the race interesting from a punting point of view. As well as JV and Rewilding I can't resist a place bet on Coordinated Cut, an animal with close form ties to Workforce and Bullet Train who is almost four times their price. Daft.

St Nicholas Abbey £115w @ 5/1 NR
Coordinated Cut £20pl @ 46/10 Lost
Rewilding £20w @ 7/1 Lost
Jan Vermeer £40w @ 39/10 Lost

(-188)

01/06/2010

Ante Post Update

Whilst things went pair shaped in the Derby my ante-post positions on Goldikova in the Queen Anne and Fame & Glory in the Arc both look rosy after recent victories for both of them. I have since topped up my slightly on the former. I'll be posting ante-post updates on a regular basis througout my blog from now on and always listing where i'm at with my positions. As well as Goldikova I have decided to cover with my old friend Rip Van Winkle at Ascot as I think Paco Boy is a very false price.

Queen Anne - Goldikova £25w @ 100/30 and Rip Van Winkle £15w @ 28/10s

Arc £10w @ 16/1

Oaks

Bad news coming through today about St Nicholas Abbey not running in the Derby. I did a bit of wheeling and dealing with his price but have still ended up with the thick end of a £100 loss on the horse.

But before that goes in the ledger we have the second fillies classic to look forward to on Friday and I think I have a nice bet to hopefully keep me well in profit before the hammer falls on Saturday.

Rumoush was quite fancied for the 1000 Guineas after her win in a listed race over 9f at the Craven meeting. But I personally did not see her as a danger to my selection in that race as her pedigree suggested stepping up in trip rather than down was her best chance for a big win. Her female line is absoltely choc full of stamina. Her dam is a half sister Unfawain and Nashwan amongst others and I think she will relish 12f. She actually ran quite well from the wrong side of the track at Newmarket and the horse who beat her on that side was placed at the Curragh in the Irish 1000 despite not really running to her best on the fast ground (one of the fillies well behind her at Newmarket was a lot closer that day). The usual trials for the Oaks have failed to throw up anything inspiring and Rumoush's main market rivals are two Cecil filles (one of whom she has already beat). At 6/1 I think she's a solid enough bet.


Rumoush £40win @ 6/1 Lost

(+7)

20/05/2010

Irish 2000 Guineas

I've already gone through this race on a previous post when mentioning the ante-post bet I have on Fencing Master. I have since topped up the bet.

Fencing Master £60win @ 58/10 Lost

(+47)

18/05/2010

Ante-Post....near and far.

A couple of Ballydoyle colts are interesting me at the moment for races in the near and far future.

First off i'm quite keen on Fencing Master for the Irish 2000 Guineas upcoming on Saturday. I saw a picture of this animal at the trainer's open day a few weeks ago and he really took the eye but looked really bulky. It was obvious to me he would need his first run and I left him alone at Newmarket. Over the stiffer mile of the Curragh and with that run under his belt I really fancy him to go close.
Of the opposition I think the vibes over the AOB first string, Steinbeck, suggests that he may need the run en-route to the St James Palace and I don't like Canford Cliffs at all for this. I think this stiffer track and the faster pace we'll get in the race because of the O'Brien pacemakers will not suit. Fencing Master has far more scope for improvement than the rivals he faced at Newmarket.
My other dabble is on Fame & Glory in the Arc in October. It is very early to be getting involved but the 16/1 available is just too big too resist. His best form easily wins this race and I presume the main reason he is trading at such long odds is that he ran poorly in the race last year. But that run came on the back of his best ever outing when chasing home the magnificent Sea the Stars in the Irish Champion Stakes. I'm of the opinion that that lung bursting run finished the horse for season and I would hope that the trainer will give him a proper "Arc prep" this year.

Ante-Post

Irish 2000 Guineas - Fencing Master £20win @ 7/1
Arc - Fame & Glory £10win @ 16/1

17/05/2010

Changes to Blog

I've decided now to keep a running profit and loss level. I will edit each post with it's revised profit or loss figure after each bet has been settled. I do a lot of punting on Betfair and so these figures will be net of any commission I have to pay.

For the record my loss for the 2009 Flat season was £350 and my profit on the Jumps was £190

16/05/2010

Ante-Post

Some ante-post views.

Immediately after the 2000 Guineas I took all the 7/2 and 4/1 I could about St Nicholas Abbey for the Derby as I thought he ran a decent trial for the race. He was expected to win the first classic but I didn't see how he could win it with his pedigree, especially on fast ground. His RP Trophy form still looks the best on offer and with challengers falling by the wayside and his stablemate winning the Dante his odds dropped to around 9/4 I did a little laying off and now have a decent wager at good odds.

After Paco Boy's impressive victory in the Lockinge the bookmakers over-reacted making him joint favourite with Rip Van Winkle for the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot. Leaving the top class filly Goldikova at a mouth watering 7/2. If she turns up and we have decent ground on the day I cannot see her being anywhere near those odds. She's been beaten first time out as a 3 and 4yo but conditions were against her both times (heavy ground then soft over 9f)

Derby - £90win @ 4/1 St Nicholas Abbey
Queen Anne - £20win @ 7/2 Goldikova

08/05/2010

Victoria Cup

I really like Prime Exhibit for today's big handicap at Ascot. Richard Fahey's charge was second (well clear of the third) in the Lincoln and I think the winner that day is a really good horse, a prospect for Group races, so at 18.5 on the Exhanges I have to get involved. Two negatives could be a low draw and the presence of Mabait, a Luca Cumani horse who was ridiculously impressive at Sandown and is on a five timer. So to overcome these negatives I have backed my main fancy each way and even though Mabait is 5/1 he is hard to fault even with a ten pound hike in the weights.

Prime Exhibit - £20ew @ 175/10 Lost
Mabait - £40win @ 5/1 Lost

(+£107)

01/05/2010

1000 Guineas

It's all about Special Duty in the Fillies Classic. I've backed the winner in this race seven times and it's a race I love obviously. My fancy has the best form in the book, is a course winner and her trainer knows how to win the race having saddled the winner three times in the past. Come On!!!

Special Duty £90win @ 4/1 Won

(+£187)


29/04/2010

2000 Guineas

Cannot wait for this race on Saturday. There are so many possibilities in the season ahead and I think this renewal is a cracker.

On Awzaan ante-post for reasons i've already posted and his price has remained around 10/1 and I have topped up. I also think Elusive Pimpernel is a cracking each way bet. He was most eye-catching in the Craven Stakes and and think he can get a lot closer to the favourite on more suitable ground. That said I also believe he'll find it tough to win given the way he tends to get outpaced and can see him running on as they enter the dip and easily getting placed

Awzaan £45win @ 10/1 lost
Elusive Pimpernel £20ew @ 6/1 lost

(-£165)

17/04/2010

Newbury - Greenham Day

Good card at Newbury today with a couple of interesting classic trials and a hot looking handicap. In the latter i'm siding with the Stoute trained Desert Creek who disappointed twice at Ascot last year after looking one to follow in a big handicap at Haydock last May. In that race he took the lead over 2f out and held on to win by a length and a quarter. Animals who hold off so many challengers are definately worth following and the fact that he's trained by a man who is a master of older horses and is around 12/1 makes up for the Ascot runs. He's drawn a bit wide so i've gone for a little in the place market as well

In the Greenham the price disparity between Arcano and Canford Cliffs is too great and is based on a lot of hype.

Desert Creek £25win £15pl @ 12/1 Lost
Arcano £40win @ 31/10 Lost

(-£80)

10/04/2010

Guineas Ante-Post

As we approach the end of the Jump season thoughts turn towards the flat and I have a couple of ante-post bets in the book already.

2000

Here i'm very keen to take on the hot favourite St Nicholas Abbey. As a potential star over middle distances I feel he's gonna really struggle to beat specialist milers on fast ground. Yes he was very impressive winning the RP Trophy at Doncaster last Autumn, but that was on softer ground than he'll encounter in this race and the horses he beat that day were either middle distance types or just outclassed. Of his opponents there are a couple i'm not keen on based on them being trained by men i'm not keen on backing (Arcano and Canford Cliffs) and a couple who's odds are really short based on form (Inler and the Stoute animal with one run to his name). So that leaves Middle Park winner Awzaan who is trained by the excellent Mark Johnston. Middle Park winners have a poor record in the Guineas but this horse is bred to relish a mile and at 10/1 I make him a decent bet.

Awzaan £25w @ 10/1

1000

Special Duty ticks all the right boxes for this race and I backed her at 5s in November. She was beaten in her trial the other day and is actually a bigger price now than she was then but I remain confident. Her trainer's last winner of the 1000, Hatoof, was also beaten in her first outing of her 3yo campaign

Special Duty £40w @ 5/1

Grand National

For this race rather than having £20/25 on two or three runners I like to pick five or six and have less on. This year i've gone for five in the win market and had an each way as well.

5x £12 win singles on:
Big Fella Thanks @ 11/1
The Package @ 16/1
Mon Mome @ 17/1
State of Play @ 25/1
Tricky Trickster @ 25/1

Maljimar £6ew @ 42/1

07/04/2010

Aintree - Day 1

I'll be in attendance tomorrow and there are a couple of really good races to get stuck into.

In the 4yo Hurdle i'm hoping to get a nice price about Mo Voici who swerved the Festival in the hope of getting softer ground here. The going is listed as g/s, good in places which is a bit off putting but Barizan and Sanctuaire running may mean he is relatively ignored in the betting. I'll be backing him on course

In the Totesport Bowl Imperial Commander is trading at evens on the machine and he has to be taken on given his profile. I really fancy Nacarat for this and will cover with What a Friend. The former ran ok in the Melling Chase last year so doesn't mind the course but needs to improve on that effort to win this. I'm hoping the step up in trip will see that improvement materialise.

Nacarat £40w @ 5/1
What a Friend £20w @ 100/30

19/03/2010

Cheltenham Festival - Day 4



Here we go then, Denman vs Kauto round 3.
I'm a massive Denman fan and I have to stay loyal to him today. He's out to 5/1 on Betfair and that is too big. His Hennessy win was pretty amazing off 174 and I just hope his fall at Newbury hasn't left any scars. I think the big meeting's wake him up however and I remain hopeful. The drying ground is only an issue in that a more severe test is more in his favour than Kauto Star's but he does act on a fast surface. Kauto Star is the best National Hunt horse to have run for forty years but it's always been my opinion that he is vulnerable at Cheltenham when they go a decent clip. In 2008 he made mistakes on the first circuit before Denman put it too him and in 2006 he actually fell in the two mile Champion Chase when favourite. He's certainly not as much of a cert as Big Bucks was yesterday. I've also backed Cooldine at 14s as a fast run race on this decent ground will suit.

Gold Cup
Denman £60win @ 9/2
Cooldine £20win @ 14/1

18/03/2010

Cheltenham Festival - Day 3

Strange day yesterday, I was certain I had the RSA covered but got blown out of the water. However, all my each ways were placed and I actually finished in front on the day.
I've already tucked into the World Hurdle and the Ryanair ante-post but all my selections are still at backable prices.
In the Ryanair I like Tranquil Sea. He won the Paddy Power at Cheltenham in November but for some reason the horse he beat that day Poquelin has always been shorter in the betting. I put that down to Paul Nicholls being the trainer. This has been a race that for awhile i've been totally against a number of the runners. Barber's Shop, Voy Por Ustedes and Schinder's Hunt are animals I couldn't really have at any price. One in double figures I do like is Planet of Sound. Third in the Arkle last year he ran a really eye-catching second giving weight to Albertas Run when stepped up in trip in November and I thought then that he'd be a Ryanair horse. Unfortunately he is a horse that makes the odd mistake and indeed he fell when favourite for a race last month. From a talent point of view he's with the best in this and for me his error prown profile is factored in his price.
In the World Hurdle i really cannot oppose Big Bucks. He's the most solid of all Nicholls hot pots this year. But in the market without him I really like Karabak. In his last three starts he has finished second to Big Bucks, Zaynar over a trip that suited the Henderson animal more and the top class Mikael D'Haguenet in the Baring Bingham at last year's festival. It takes a really top notch animal to beat him and for me after Big Bucks there isn't much worthwhile opposition in the race
Day 3 Bets:

Ryanair
Tranquil Sea £30win @ 11/2
Planet of Sound £15ew @ 12/1

World Hurdle
Karabak £30win @ 100/30 (without Big Buck's)

Mikael D'Haguenet

Mikael D'Haguenet

17/03/2010

Cheltenham Festival - Day 2

Nick Williams is the up and coming trainer in NH racing and I decided to follow his stable last year. He hasn't had a Festival winner as yet but Reve De Silvola and James De Vassy should both go well at big prices for him tomorrow. The former can be a dodgy jumper but he ran really well in a very hot Triumph Hurdle last year and he's a daft price (14s) especially as one of his victims in his last win is trading at half his price. James De Vassy runs in the big Handicap Hurdle and he has good form with Kyhber Kim who was second in the Champion Hurdle.
I'm against Diamond Harry (Nick's best horse) in the RSA however. This is because I am in a fantastic position in this race having taken a chance on Long Run at 6/1 (when there was a debate as to whether or not he'd go for this or the Arkle) and then topping up when he was a confirmed runner. Punchestowns I initially backed at 12s when he was found lame the other morning as he seemed the only danger to my selection and I have backed him since as well.
Looking at the market now my two selections are so much shorter than the prices I have that it might pay to have a little on
Diamond Harry as extra cover. Like yesterday i'm gonna include him in a small double.
Wednesday's biggest race is the Queen Mother Champion Chase and i'm solidly with Kalahari King in this. A fast ground horse who ran really well in the Arkle last year I think he is well capable of shaking up the hot favourite and should be guaranteed to reach the frame. And each way selection to nothing imo.

Day 2 Bets:

Baring Bingham Novice Hurdle
Reve De Sivola £15e/w @ 14/1

RSA Chase
Long Run £30win @ 47/10
Punchestowns £30win @ 53/10
Diamond Harry and Master Minded (Champion Chase) £20win Double @ Betfair SP

Queen Mother Champion Chase
Kalahari King £15e/w @ 11/2

Coral Cup
James De Vassy £15e/w @ 20/1