29/12/2013

Leopardstown - 29th Dec

Another terrible day yesterday. Three of the four horses I backed were pulled up and the other was beaten into second despite looking the likely winner jumping the last. First Lieutenant's run gave me a bit of confidence however. He was a great price and an obvious bet. You just have to keep plugging on and eventually it will come right. I shouldn't have got involved in the Welsh National however.

The Ryanair Hurdle today pitches Hurricane Fly against Jezki and Our Conor. A mouth watering prospect. As a backer of Jezki for the Champion Hurdle I'm with him today as well and have taken 11/4. His form looks stonger than Our Conor and I think the Hurricane is vulnerable to the new kids on the block this season.

Ryanair Hurdle:
Jezki £40w @ 11/4 (lost)

(-652.5)

28/12/2013

Leopardstown & Chepstow - 28th Dec

Busy day's racing today and I've been up since the crack of dawn trying to sort through it.

The ground is heavy at Chepstow and the Welsh National will be an attritional contest where the ability to stay a marathon trip and go on bottomless ground will be key. I've picked out two in the race. Wyck Hill has disappointed in his two outings thus far this season but he's a horse who loves deep ground. He beat the high class Katenko in it at Ascot last December and was a cracking third at Punchestown in April behind a couple of animals he was conceding nearly two stone to. With the top class Tidal Bay heading the weights Wyck Hill has a nice racing weight today and will outrun his 28/1 price. I've also backed Highland Lodge who ran a stormer in the Hennessy Gold Cup last time out. That race is working out well and he goes on really soft ground. On a line through Alfie Spinner his narrow defeat behind a lightly weighted Standing Ovation at Wincanton at the end of October (gave 26lbs) gives him the beating of Well Refreshed who heads the market.

The most disappointing aspect of the NH season thus far for me is my abject failure to back any of the Nick Williams horses that have been winning on big race days recently. I was a tad taken in with the hype surrounding At Fishers Cross before the Long Walk Hurdle and just didn't fancy Reve de Sivola to beat him despite the ground being perfect for him that day. Even worse than that was the fact that I had Amore Alato on my tracker after his win at Wincanton in November but I just couldn't pull the trigger on him at Kempton on Boxing Day. It looked a tough race with the well touted Dubai Price and a well touted Henderson beast amongst his opponents and I think I was so keyed up for the King George itself that I almost couldn't be bothered. A bad mistake.
Nick has a couple of horses running at Chepstow today. The 3yo he runs in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle was well beat in a similar race in France recently and doesn't appeal but Un Bon P'Tit Gars does. This horse has had a couple of runs in Novice Chases this season, including an outing at Chepstow, and his jumping seems to be getting better. He was no match for Valdez last time out but that animal looks a graded chaser in the making. Today he's at the foot of the weights and I've taken 6/1 about him.

Over in Ireland the race of the day is the Lexus Chase. The interesting thing about this race from a betting point of view is how ridiculously short Unioniste is. He's shorter than First Lieutenant and only a point or so longer than Sir Des Champs and Bob's Worth despite the fact that he beat a 156 rated chaser last time out getting weight. Nicholls does have a great record in the Lexus but this has been way over factored in this market. I've backed First Lieutenant at 7/1. He had a busy season in 2012/13 and his trainer has admitted it's taken time to get him going. He was second in this last season and although the ground is a concern it was soft here twelve months ago and he's overpriced given his overall profile.

Lastly, stakes are down a bit partly because I'm not having a good time of it at the moment from a punting point of view and partly because I have issues at work meaning meaning financial security is a slight worry going into 2014.

Welsh National:
Wyck Hill £15ew @ 28/1 (pu)
Highland Lodge £25w @ 10/1 (pu)

Lexus Chase:
First Lieutenant £40w @ 7/1 (lost)

Coral Handicap Chase:
Un Bon P'Tit Gars £40w @ 6/1 (pu)

(-612.5)




27/12/2013

Leopardstown - 27th Dec

As much as getting the King George wrong today hurt at the time I think we can take some real positives from Kempton's card as a whole. My Tent or Yours belied the myth that he doesn't find much under pressure and with a bigger field, a faster pace and better ground almost a guarantee in March I strongly fancy him for the Champion Hurdle now.

Al Ferof never really got going today. Going into the race I suppose you could say there was a chance he wouldn't like the track but Silviniaco Conti had run a stinker at the course as a novice and I thought he'd be the likelier of the two to find the special test of the King George beyond him. Al Ferof was poor at the first, jumped left at another couple and never got into a rhythm with his jumping. I have 20/1+ about him for whichever race he goes for at the Festival and I believe we'll see a completely different horse at a track he loves.

The big race of the day on Friday is the Dial-a-Bet chase at Leopardstown and I want to get involved with Arkle second Baily Green at a rather insulting 14 on Betfair. The Mouse Morris gelding was only beaten narrowly on his first outing of the season by Sizing Europe and he strikes me as one of those horses that's always underestimated. He may have been a bit flattered in the Arkle last March it was a cracking run nevertheless. Arvika Legionnaire and Sizing Europe are formidable opponents and I wouldn't say they are poorly priced by any means but the selection doesn't deserve to be so much longer than the likes of Kid Cassidy and Hidden Cyclone. The former I'm not convinced about at this level. He got weight from Sire de Grugy at Cheltenham last time out and that horse isn't a Cheltenham animal to boot. Hidden Cyclone is a stayer and completely outclassed in this company. For the life of me I can't see one reason why he should be anywhere near the same odds as the selection.

Are the front two in the market vulnerable? I think so possibly - Sizing Europe is not getting any younger and was only a little in front of Baily Green on their meeting in October. As good as Arvika Legionnaire looked at Punchestown he is a better horse going right handed it seems. That is factored into his price but Baily Green wasn't that far behind him this time last year over course and distance and he's a fresher horse now than he was then. He's simply overpriced in both the win and place markets. Even though I'm only getting two places in the latter.

Dial-a-Bet Chase:
Baily Green £25w @ 13/1 and £15pl @ 46/10 (lost)

(-477.5)

25/12/2013

Kempton - 26th Dec

So, Christmas out of the way and we can look forward to the highlight of this holiday period, tomorrow's cracking card at Kempton and in particular a cracking renewal of the King George. When I first backed Al Ferof for the race back in March Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig headed the ante-post list and even Bob's Worth, who was never going to go for the race, was ahead of him in the market. Having been injured in the run up to last year's race Al Ferof was a forgotten horse in the spring but I was confident his trainer would get him back -  Paul Nicholls being second to none in getting staying chasers back after setbacks.

Al Ferof seems to have been around for a long time but it's amazing to think this race tomorrow will be his first attempt at three miles. Amazing because his racing style (a strong travelling sort who finds a lot under pressure) and his pedigree both suggest he will make a top class staying chaser. His win under a big weight in the 2012 Paddy Power on similar ground that he'll encounter tomorrow was very impressive and indeed I would claim it is the strongest piece of actual staying form amongst the top three in the betting. Cue Card's Betfair Chase win was fantastic but he had his own way in front and the true distance of that race was someway short of the 3m1f advertised. I'm not saying Al Ferof's Paddy Power was more impressive that that effort, it plainly wasn't from a form perspective - but it was a more grueling contest where two horses pulled clear, Al Ferof asserting at the last from Walkon, who went on to finish runner up in the December Gold Cup to a ridiculously well handicapped Unioniste - high class himself of course.

Cue Card will be a formidable rival tomorrow for all that he didn't run well in the race last year but I have him in my portfolio as well. I just don't fancy him as strongly as my main bet. There is a suspicion that he's better going left handed as well. Dynaste worries me enough to have some sort of cover but that is a reflection of the wriggle room I have on the race now given my immense ante-post value more than actually thinking he will win. His impressive win in the Feltham over course and distance twelve months ago means he has to be respected.

Of the other contenders I've always had a soft spot for Menorah and if I was convinced he was 100% for this (first run of the season and stable companion Captain Chris was connections main hope for the race but has been pulled out through injury) I would have a sneaky each way on him. But none of the rest strike me as likely winners. Silviniaco Conti has been found out his last three outings, Mount Benbulben has jumping issues and Long Run is on the decline.

It's been a relatively quiet Jumps season for me thus far with not a lot of bets and I've only had the one decent winner so tomorrow's race is important. I badly want Al Ferof to win to set me up for the Festival.

The Christmas Hurdle that precedes the main event is a fascinating clash between My Tent or Yours and The New One. I'm firmly in the former's camp for the Champion Hurdle but he isn't a bet at 5/4 tomorrow. Just hope he wins.

King George:
Al Ferof £70w @ 82/10 (lost)
Cue Card £25w @ 74/10 (lost)
Dynaste and Kings Palace(Albert Bartlett) £15dbl @ 4/1 & 5/1 (lost)

(-437.5)






21/12/2013

Christmas Racing

I can't remember a more mouth watering set of races over the Christmas period than we have this year. The King George is the headline act and I am in a fantastic position in the race having taking double figure prices about Cue Card and Al Ferof ante-post. I've topped up on both now but do fancy the latter more. It's amazing to think Al Ferof with his profile has yet to tackle three miles in his career to date. I expect this test will really suit him and he comes into the race fresh as a daisy. Cue Card I just think is short now and there is this feeling that he is better going left handed - and soft ground wouldn't totally suit him. My portfolio for the race reads so well that I have added Dynaste as cover. This trio seem the only possible winners to my eyes. As good as Silviniaco Conti is he has come up short in his last three contests and that just isn't the profile of a King George winner.

The Christmas Hurdle features The New One taking on My Tent or Yours and I am fully in the latter's camp. Kempton will suit him more than The New One and although I probably won't back him I'll be cheering him on with my Champion Hurdle bet in mind.

Also on Boxing Day in Ireland Champagne Fever takes on his stable companion Felix Yonger in the Racing Post Novice Chase. I've backed the latter for the Jewson because he's taken to fences superbly well, has excellent Festival form (if he'd been ridden more prominently in the Neptune he'd have been closer to Simonsig at the line and obviously that is top notch form) and to be honest I've just always assumed Champagne Fever would be the stable's Arkle animal. With them meeting over two miles if Felix won does be become the Mullins Arkle contender?

Bob's Worth taking on Sir Des Champ and First Lieutenant in the Lexus is fascinating because the starts all three of them have had to this season have been someway short of the heights they hit in 2012/13 (Sir Des Champs with more excuses than the other two) but from a betting point of view 9/4 Bob's Worth, 11/4 SDC and 6/1 First Lieutenant seems to have underestimated the latter named. I'll wait for final decs but at that price I will be involved.

King George:
Al Ferof £50w @ 10/1
Cue Card £25w @ 74/10
Dynaste and Kings Palace(Albert Bartlett) £15dbl @ 4/1 and 5/1





14/12/2013

Ante-Post

Gah! Despite not jumping fluently a the start of the race Salut Flo was just getting into his race today and looked a big threat before clattering the third last. A similar thing happened to Wishfull Thinking in the Paddy Power. Frustrating.

Anyway, we've had plenty of Cheltenham clues the last couple of days. The headlines will go to The New One but I wasn't overly impressed with his win in the International and a lot more will be needed at the Festival. I was kind of afraid of him after his mauling of Rock on Ruby on his first run of the season but he wasn't foot perfect at his hurdles today and although he went away from Zarkandar at the end of the race that horse needs two and a half miles (especially on good ground) and I have a lot more confidence about My Tent or Yours and Jezki now. I've topped up on the former as he's bound to be a lot shorter in the market after the Christmas Hurdle, a race it's hard to see him not winning.

Kings Palace was very impressive in the Grade 2 Novices' but 6/1 isn't too appealing right now for the Albert Bartlett. I've backed Briar Hill for the Neptune on the basis that he obviously loves the track based on his win in the Champion Bumper in March and hurdled very nicely on his debut a few weeks ago and if he goes for the longer race I would take on Kings Palace with him.

Finally it was nice to see Nick Williams coming up with a good horse again after For Non Stop's sale to an American owner and Diamond Harry's rather quick fall from grace. I didn't back Fox Norton today at Doncaster because rather muggily I was taken in somewhat by the hype surrounding Royal Irish Hussar. Fox Norton won nicely enough and seems to have a good deal of scope. I took 25s about him for the Triumph after the race. I've been banging on ever since I started this blog about Nick and his lack of Cheltenham Festival success. Fingers crossed he has another live contender with this one.

King George:
Al Ferof £50w @ 10/1
Cue Card £15w @ 10/1

Supreme Novices:
The Liquidator £10w @ 20/1
West Wizard £15w @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £30w @ 78/10

Neptune:
Briar Hill £20w @ 12/1 (NRFB)

RSA:
Clondaw Kaempfer £4w @ 109/1
Wonderful Charm £25w @ 16/1 (NRFB)

Jewson:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)
Felix Yonger £20w @ 8/1

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £20w @ 20/1 (NRFB)

World Hurdle:
Monksland £10w @ 24/1

Triumph Hurdle:
Fox Norton £15ew @ 25/1 (NRFB)

Gold Cup:
Al Ferof £10w @ 20/1







Cheltenham - 14th Dec

For the second straight weekend we have a good day's racing to look forward to but one where I'm struggling to find a bet. Last week I was really disappointed with myself. I ended up having a couple of doubles in races I really didn't have fancies in and the Clondaw Kaempfer bet was bad, it was one of those where I could just envisage him winning if I didn't back him - although it was an awful looking race to be fair.

This weekend I'm a little fed up already. I was really taken with Wonderful Charm when he won at Wincanton last month and took a position about him in what I assumed would be his target at the Festival, the RSA. But after his recent success at Newbury and his narrow defeat behind Oscar Whiskey yesterday connections have indicated the Jewson will be his destination in March. I think they want to look after him given that he'll only be six at the turn of the year but the horse is all about stamina and he'll need further than 2m5f in top company. At least I backed him with the non runner free bet concession at BetVictor.

As I said not too much appeals today but Salut Flo has been winking at me all week. I quite fancied him for the Paddy Power but the stable preferred Ballynagour for that race. A month later he takes on the principals on better terms as Johns Spirit and Colour Squadron have been reassessed. I was at Cheltenham the day he won the Byrne Group Plate in 2012. I remember watching the race on a giant TV near the concession stands just down from the paddock whilst knocking back a big Hog Roast bap. He jumped so economically that day and won with plenty in hand - some feat in a Festival handicap. Although the lay off since isn't ideal he actually ran in this renewal a couple of years back after a similar absence and was looking competitive until making a bad mistake three out. It's not like he blew up through lack of fitness and I see that as a good indicator today.

I managed to get 11 matched on Betfair yesterday evening for a tenner and have backed him each way this morning at 9/1. I want the place element just because that hill might catch him out against race fit animals.

December Handicap Chase:
Salut Flo £10w @ 10/1 and £20ew @ 9/1 (lost)

(-327.5)


07/12/2013

Aintree and Sandown - 7th Dec

Today's two cards at Sandown and Aintree are choc full of enticing but trappy events. It's a bit of a minefield from a punting point of view - not helped by the fact that a couple of the horses that I'm interested in were backed last time but ran below form.

In the Becher Chase I am keen on Walkon. I prematurely backed him for the race earlier in the week at 14/1 (16s available now) and the general feeling is that 3m2f will stretch his stamina to breaking point. That is possible of course but I'm taking a chance at his inflated odds. He's proven over the National fences and the form of the Topham he was runner-up in back in April was massively franked when the winner that day took the Hennessy last week. In terms of stamina I just look back on his two efforts behind Al Ferof and Unioniste last season in really tough, competitive handicaps on deep ground last season. To me those runs behind a really top class sort in the former and a high class one carry less than 10st in the latter suggested Walkon was a staying chaser if anything and at his odds today I'm taking a chance he'll last out.

Also at Aintree I'm giving possibly a last chance to Clondaw Kaempfer. I was very disappointed with his tame effort last time out when he was too fresh, didn't hurdle that well and just seemed like a horse who badly needed the run. That being the case we should expect some sort of improvement today and the fact that he gets decent(ish) ground for a change makes him a bet. I've always thought this horse would be suited to good ground given his action and in a race that lacks quality I just hope his trainer has him ready.

Sandown has a couple of cracking Grade 1's. I was impressed with Taquin du Seuil at Cheltenham last time out when he bested Oscar Whiskey in a race that turned into a bit of a sprint. He jumped well that day although a drop back in trip on good ground is a worry given his odds of 3/1. At similar odds Captain Conan also appeals in the Tingle Creek, the best race of the day. The doubt I have about him, enough to put me off for a single bet anyway, is Henderson's horses mostly needing the run this season. And his entry is an after thought of course with Sprinter Sacre it seems missing the race because he has a man cold. I think Sire de Grugy who heads the market is overrated though so I want to take him on. 


Becher Chase:
Walkon £10ew @ 15/1 (NR) 

Goals Galore Handicap Hurdle:
Clondaw Kaempfer £25w @ 43/10 (lost)

Taquin du Seuil (HenryVIII) and Captain Conan (Tingle Creek) £15 dbl @ 3/1 and 5/2 (lost)

Clondaw Kaempfer and Taquin du Seuil £10 dbl @ Betfair SP's (lost)

(-277.5)






02/12/2013

Ante-Post

Bit of a disappointing weekend really. I was very confident Lord Windermere would go well in the Hennessy but he faded quickly as they entered the straight. I suppose he might have needed the race. The winner paid a complement to Walkon who wasn't beaten far behind him in the Topham conceding a stone back in April and Alan King's horse runs in the Becher Chase over 3m2f on Saturday. He's becoming a regular at the Liverpool track and I was present when he fell in the Old Roan last month. He jumped poorly that day but a return to the National fences might suit as will, hopefully, a bit more cut in the ground. I still think this horse is well handicapped and I've taken 14/1 about him. The trip does concern me a little bit but I'm taking a chance at that price.

4/12
I backed Wishfull Thinking at 40/1 for the Paddy Power and in my opinion he would have been placed but for making a mistake four out. He is in the December Gold Cup over the same course and distance a week on Saturday and I have taken a big price on Betfair. His mark has gone down a couple of pounds and he is notably better off at the weights for this contest than the second season chasers that were ahead of him in the Paddy Power.

Becher Chase:
Walkon £10ew @ 14/1

December Gold Cup:
Wishfull Thinking £5w @ 46/1

King George:
Al Ferof £30w @ 14/1
Cue Card £15w @ 10/1

Supreme Novices:
The Liquidator £10w @ 20/1
West Wizard £15w @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10

Neptune:
Briar Hill £20w @ 12/1 (NRFB)

RSA:
Clondaw Kaempfer £4w @ 109/1
Wonderful Charm £25w @ 16/1 (NRFB)

Jewson:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £20w @ 20/1 (NRFB)

World Hurdle:
Monksland £10w @ 24/1

Gold Cup:
Al Ferof £10w @ 20/1