As much as getting the King George wrong today hurt at the time I think we can take some real positives from Kempton's card as a whole. My Tent or Yours belied the myth that he doesn't find much under pressure and with a bigger field, a faster pace and better ground almost a guarantee in March I strongly fancy him for the Champion Hurdle now.
Al Ferof never really got going today. Going into the race I suppose you could say there was a chance he wouldn't like the track but Silviniaco Conti had run a stinker at the course as a novice and I thought he'd be the likelier of the two to find the special test of the King George beyond him. Al Ferof was poor at the first, jumped left at another couple and never got into a rhythm with his jumping. I have 20/1+ about him for whichever race he goes for at the Festival and I believe we'll see a completely different horse at a track he loves.
The big race of the day on Friday is the Dial-a-Bet chase at Leopardstown and I want to get involved with Arkle second Baily Green at a rather insulting 14 on Betfair. The Mouse Morris gelding was only beaten narrowly on his first outing of the season by Sizing Europe and he strikes me as one of those horses that's always underestimated. He may have been a bit flattered in the Arkle last March it was a cracking run nevertheless. Arvika Legionnaire and Sizing Europe are formidable opponents and I wouldn't say they are poorly priced by any means but the selection doesn't deserve to be so much longer than the likes of Kid Cassidy and Hidden Cyclone. The former I'm not convinced about at this level. He got weight from Sire de Grugy at Cheltenham last time out and that horse isn't a Cheltenham animal to boot. Hidden Cyclone is a stayer and completely outclassed in this company. For the life of me I can't see one reason why he should be anywhere near the same odds as the selection.
Are the front two in the market vulnerable? I think so possibly - Sizing Europe is not getting any younger and was only a little in front of Baily Green on their meeting in October. As good as Arvika Legionnaire looked at Punchestown he is a better horse going right handed it seems. That is factored into his price but Baily Green wasn't that far behind him this time last year over course and distance and he's a fresher horse now than he was then. He's simply overpriced in both the win and place markets. Even though I'm only getting two places in the latter.
Dial-a-Bet Chase:
Baily Green £25w @ 13/1 and £15pl @ 46/10 (lost)
(-477.5)
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