York & Newmarket - 30th May

    Another bet, another loss. My fear today was that the trip of 7f might be a bit short for Saigon City and so it proved, he was outpaced and ran on well towards the end of the race. I absolutely destroyed the price as well, not for the first time during my current losing streak. I had 7/1 about Integral in the Lockinge - she started 11/4. Hot Streak's SP for the Temple last week was 7/2 - I got 13/2. And Saigon City, who I punted last night at 5/1, started price 7/4. Unreal.

    Confidence is low obviously, but I know it will turn around soon and I have a couple of fancies tomorrow. At York I think Red Galileo is overpriced in the listed race over a mile and six. This horse has been largely disappointing but at his level he has thrown in a couple of decent runs where the impression one had was that a step into staying company would really benefit him. He ran well at the beginning of the month cutting out a good pace in a listed race over 12f at Ascot only to get swallowed up by Agent Murphy and others in the last furlong - however he battled back and would have been a clear second if the race had been over 10/20 yards further. The winner that day is a very nice type and the form has been franked since. He looks sure to improve over this step up in trip and I think 8/1 is excessive.

    I have a tracker horse in action at Newmarket in the 3.20. Like Saigon City Watersmeet conceded plenty of ground veering from a straight line in his last race but unlike Cumani's charge he runs over the same distance (and course for that matter) this time around and again I think he's a tad overpriced. The market for this race is made by Penhill who looks a nice type but at 2/1 is very short. With ten runners and a shortie to take on Watersmeet is a solid each way bet and if he stays straight should go close.

    I've gone each way on Red Galileo also. Partly because a losing streak can sometimes turn me into a pussy, but also because like Penhill in the Watersmeet race I believe the favourite in this, Clever Cookie, is also a bit short. He carries a penalty for his win at Chester earlier in the month and that race didn't take a huge amount of winning with Tac De Boistron carrying a boffo penalty himself.

LLP Grand Cup:
Red Galileo £20ew @ 8/1 (4th)

Winner.co.uk Handicap:
Watersmeet £20ew @ 8/1 (won)

(-535)

Newmarket - 29th May

    I'm a sucker for a horse who runs well in a race having covered more ground than his or her rivals and tomorrow the Luca Cumani trained Saigon City has his first race since veering across the track in a handicap at Ascot last month. He finished second that day and the winner ran well enough in a hotter race at Sandown earlier this evening from a six pounds higher mark. Saigon City has been raised three pounds for that effort at Ascot and the addition of a visor should help keep him on the straight and narrow tomorrow at Newmarket - having that run under his belt should help also, I'm a little concerned that the trip is a furlong shorter but he travels well and his trainer is a master with handicappers. I'm hardly confident given my start to the season but this horse is at the top of my tracker so that in itself is an indicator of some sort. There's no question if he doesn't concede ground he is ahead of the handicapper.

Tilbrooks Landscape & Tuddenham Nurseries Handicap:
Saigon City £50w @ 5/1 (lost)

(-695)

Leicester - 25th May

    Despite my poor start to the season I feel relatively buoyant about the future, mainly due to the eleven or twelve horses currently in my tracker. I have a larger list than I had last season at the same stage and I've been watching more racing.

    One of these horses runs at Leicester tomorrow. He's called Rio Ronaldo and he's a well related 6f handicapper who won a at Windsor last month despite encountering a bit of trouble in running, trouble that meant he had to circumnavigate most of the (admittedly) small field. He won fairly comfortably in the end and a 6lb rise in the ratings doesn't look harsh at all. The presence of a pesky, unexposed Godolphin creature means he was initially offered at a tidy 9/2 for his race tomorrow and I snaffled that up quick style. Stomp won the same race at Windsor in 2014 in a similar manner and he followed up in his next race, I'll be disappointed if Rio Ronaldo cannot do the same.

Totetrifecta Handicap:
Rio Ronaldo £40w @ 9/2 (lost)

(-645)

Haydock - 23rd May

                                                                      Hot Streak - 2014


    My decision on Monday to take some 10/1 about Hot Streak for the Temple Stakes at Haydock today has worked in theory with him trading at around 9/2 now, but I must admit I'd be more confident if there had been more rain. It looks a very open looking event and the main reason the selection has shortened so much is Sole Power's defection. Hot Streak was a tad disappointing after his impressive win twelve months ago and I kind of hoped soft ground today would see him return to his best. He ran well enough first time out at Longchamp where he seemed to get tired after helping force the pace and he has a fitness advantage over a few of these but I just wish the ground had more give in it. I have topped up at 9/2 and my stake has been dropped slightly as a consequence of my disappointing start to the season.

Temple Stakes:
Hot Streak £40w @ 13/2 (lost)

(-605)

Ante-Post

    I've been perusing the various ante-post markets the last couple of days and have had a couple of tentative wagers. Haydock is my local track and it stages the Temple Stakes on Saturday, a race which could feature a bit of a mouth watering clash between Sole Power and G Force. However both these Group 1 performers like it on the firm side and I doubt they'll have ideal underfoot conditions - and if that is the case one or both might not run. With that in mind I've had a small bet on Hot Streak who won last year's renewal. He was a tad disappointing after that win twelve months ago and although he never had ground as soft as he did that day again, he was still a tad overrated at the time. In the hope that the race cuts up and the forecast rain materialises I think 10/1 is worth a punt. He ran well enough at Longchamp the other day, just getting tired in the last half furlong or so.

    Nothing appeals in the Derby or Oaks at present, although Elm Park is tempting slightly. The Coronation Cup however has a nice betting shape with Cirrus Des Aigles fair crying to be taken on. On decent ground last year he won the race well enough but was injured in the process and I can't believe connections would risk him again if soft isn't part of the going description - and to be honest I'd take him on anyway. He has been a fantastic horse over a mile and a quarter but has always been vulnerable to a decent 12f beast and Flintshire just wasn't fit enough in the race last season. Dolniya is a fast ground 12f filly trained by the second best handler in France. She was rudely impressive in Dubai in March, easily accounting for Flintshire, and looks on the up curve. I can see her starting 9/4 on the day as the race cuts up.


Temple Stakes:
Hot Streak £15w @ 10/1

Coronation Cup:
Dolniya £25w @ 4/1

Ripon - 17th May

    As Ryan Moore stormed through Newbury's card yesterday I was praying with each race that he'd lose as my vibes about Integral became worse and worse as the afternoon progressed and when he rode the winner of the race prior to the Lockinge, bringing up a four timer, I just knew Integral wouldn't win when that happened - it reminded me of Cheltenham and Annie Power falling at the last after Ruby almost went through the card. I've started the season poorly and it almost feels like with everything going right last year I'm paying for it now. I thought the Lockinge was incredibly average and that Karakontie would have won comfortably. On the other hand I had a run of something like fourteen straight losers in August/September last season so maybe I'm getting my running bad period out of the way early doors. I hope so.

    One of the horses who put me back in the game last September was the Andrew Balding trained 3yo Secret Hint who went into my tracker when finishing fourth in a handicap at Goodwood at the start of that month. She raced in isolation on the stands rail that day before drifting into the main bunch towards the end of the race; it was a really eye catching run - particularly as it was a race not confined to her own sex. She won nicely next time out at Newmarket. That was her final race of the season but she looked a filly who could progress from three to four. First time out in 2015 she was second in a 5.5f handicap at Wetherby when she was beaten comfortably be a rival she lines up against again today in the 3.15 at Ripon. That rival, a filly called Ridge Ranger, travelled very powerfully throughout and won nice enough, but she is 7lbs worse off with Secret Hint today and I do think a return to 6f will suit my selection. 5/2 isn't a price to get too excited about, and maybe my range has been broadened because of my poor start to the season, but I do believe this filly is on an upward curve and I think she'll win today.

Fillies' Handicap:
Secret Hint £40w @ 5/2 (lost)

(-565)

Newbury - 16th May

                                                                      Cape Cross - 1998


    As I type this I have asked for £40 @ 8 on the machine about Integral in the today's open looking Lockinge Stakes - I'm hoping by the time I finish this entry it will have been matched. Sir Michael's mare has her optimum conditions today and looks overpriced to me. 2014 was a good year for her, she won two Group 1's, but arguably her best run was in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot, the only time aside from her poor run in the QEII (she was probably done for the season by then and the ground was against her) when she faced a double figure sized field. That size of field almost guarantees a decent pace and I think we see the best of her under those conditions. Prize money for the Lockinge has shot up this year, hence the big increase in runners, but most of them are not Group 1 class and and I think the favourite and Custom Cut are her main opponents. I've already lost money on the race having taken 6/1 ante-post about Karakontie but he injured his foot earlier in the week and misses the race.

    A word about Cape Cross. Forums, online form books, Twitter, racing groups on Facebook - information on the sport nowadays is everywhere. But in 1998 all we had was the trade paper and in those days I was more of a flat only punter (I did tuck into the Jumps but not to the same stake level) and I had the Racing Post delivered to me in the summer but for whatever reason I hadn't sorted it out for that season by the time the Lockinge came along. Newbury was on the BBC in those days so The Morning Line didn't cover the race, or I didn't watch - and ultimately the form book in my head was my only reference for the race - and that form book told me 20/1 about Cape Cross was a big price, although I cannot remember why now. I backed him only to find out when the coverage started that he was a pacemaker for a better fancied Godolphin animal - I wasn't best pleased of course, but could do nothing about it - Betfair being a few years down the line for me. He won in fine style but put if that race was run a few years down the line I would not have backed him. So we see that information is generally a good thing, but not exclusively.

    Most of the £40 I asked for on Integral has now been matched, pretty sure the balance will be taken before too long.

Lockinge Stakes:
Integral £40w @ 7/1 (lost)
Karakontie NR £25

(-525)

Newmarket - 15th May

    A rather disappointing day with Justice Belle getting turned over - I was pretty sure she'd win an ordinary looking race. Maybe the soft ground did for her, or maybe like at Windsor she ran into another useful Godolphin inmate. No matter, she's still worth following, especially on better ground than she encountered today.

    I have another tracker horse running tomorrow. He's a 4yo gelding called Express Himself and he runs in the 4.40 at Newmarket. First time out last month at Pontefract he pulled very hard in a rather sedately run contest before staying on well towards the end of the race. He finished third but the two animals who beat him both raced with the pace and kind of got first run on him. He's off the same mark at headquarters and also has a claimer aboard so looks fairly well in. The favourite, a horse called Wistar, actually finished a place behind him at Ponte' but heads him in the market presumably because Cumani trains him and his charges have the reputation of needing their first runs of the season. He's also more unexposed than the selection and I do fear him. 6/1 is more my price than the odds I got on Justice Belle today, although she was very well backed and went off at 13/8.

A word on the racing at York today - Golden Horn was most impressive in winning the Dante and looks very hard to oppose if he goes to Epsom, but I have a feeling Elm Park will also go on to win a nice race or two. This was his first outing of the season and he chased a strong pace before tiring in the last furlong. I think 8/1 isn't a bad price for the Derby and I may take a chance that Golden Horn isn't supplemented for it. Something to ponder on this weekend.

Fiscale Handicap:
Express Himself £20ew and £20w @ 6/1 (3rd)

(-460)

Salisbury - 14th May

    Muthmir ran well enough today in the Duke of York but I was a bit miffed with the tactics - I expected him to be held up like he had been in his previous races but he blazed a trail for most of the race - although the results were not as disastrous as they had been for American Hope last Saturday. I think connections ran him with a view to Royal Ascot next month and I would expect him to be held onto longer in the Diamond Jubilee. I certainly haven't given up on him being a high class sprinter and I expect him to be a bet next month.

    No bets for me on Dante day at York although I was tempted by Ribbons in the Middleton Fillies Stakes. The combination of her carrying a penalty and it being her first outing of the season is enough to put me off however. My bet tomorrow is at Salisbury and it's on a filly called Justice Belle who runs in the 2.55. She was second in a handicap over just short of 12f at Windsor last month and although she steps back down in trip here I think conditions will be in her favour. She pulled quite hard early doors in that race but tomorrow's opposition contain a couple of front runners and I therefore expect her to settle better. The form of that race at Windsor has been franked as well - the winner having won off an eight pound higher mark since. This is my first tracker bet this season so I'm very keen for a good run - I did well with these types last season.

Bathwick Tyres Fillies Handicap:
Justice Belle £60w @ 5/2 (2nd)

(-450)

York - 13th May

    We have four days of cracking action to savour from tomorrow with the Dante meeting followed by a good card at Newbury on Saturday. I anticipate having three or four bets and my selection tomorrow stands out like a sore thumb in the Duke of York Stakes. Muthmir burst onto the scene at this track back in July when showing a breathtaking turn of foot in winning a handicap and I backed him on the back of that for the Stewards Cup a week later. In all honesty that wasn't a good bet given the short space of time between his races and he never threatened to follow up. That turn of foot was in evidence again in September though when he overcame trouble in running to smash his field in the Portland at Doncaster. Tomorrow's race is a step up in class and it's a half decent field but I'm happy to take a chance at 11/2 that he's up to winning at this level before an inevitable foray into Group 1 company. I managed to get £40 on at that price and may top up tomorrow morning at Hills with their concession for second place as long as he's not shorter than 5/1.

Duke of York Stakes:
Muthmir £40w @ 11/2 (lost)

(-390)

Ascot - 9th May

    I've not had a particularly good start to the season but we've only just begun and there'll be plenty of decent opportunities the next few months. The Victoria Cup is a tough looking race to try and get back on track, or in the green, but American Hope has his conditions today and I've been waiting on a price and decent place terms and one bookie has at last gone 16/1 and 5 places. American Hope went into my tracker last season when he was caught on the line by Mange All at Ascot in a hot looking mile handicap at the height of last summer. Moohaarib was a couple of lengths behind in third that day off 93 that day and has notably franked the form on two occasions since. As for the selection, since that day at Ascot he has run three times - he was badly drawn in a handicap at Goodwood in August (didn't seem to like the track either) and has been second this season in a small field conditions event at Kempton and was down the field in the Abernant last time out. Both those latter two races are easily ignored as they aren't handicaps and as I say, this is the first time he has his optimum conditions since that day at Ascot, and he's only 3lbs higher in the ratings. It's a very hard looking race obviously but I'm happy enough with the price I have. He was quite keen in the Abernant and the pace they go in this cavalry charge should help him settle better.

Victoria Cup:
American Hope £30ew @ 16/1 (lost)

(-350)

Chester - 8th May

                                                                       Daliapour - 2000

    Just a quick post today as I have to be in work shortly. I'm quite keen on Windshear in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester today. He's a tough horse to win with but his runs last time out at Newbury and in the St Leger last September suggests to me that in this company he should go close. Tac De Boistron is being touted as the best stayer in training and he's won on the Roodeye in the past but he also carries a 7lb penalty today and that makes him opposable at around 2/1. It is true he carried such a penalty to success in the Sagaro last season but Windshear is a cut above the rivals Botti's horse beat twelve months ago. The selection isn't the best traveller in the world and in the John Porter and the St Leger he was off the bridle some way out but in both contests he battled back to finish in the frame. At Doncaster in particular he looked likely to finish in midfield at the two pole but there was a lot to like about the way he battled back and dropped in class today he should give a good account, and Chester's turns may keep him on the bridle a bit longer also. I've taken some 7/2 at Hills with their money back concession for Channel 4 races as well as my main bet at 4/1.


Ormonde Stakes:
Windshear £35w @ 4/1 and £25w @ 7/2 (mbs) (lost)

(-290)

                                                           

Chester - 6th May

    I mentioned my Chester Cup fancy for Angel Gabrial in Sunday's entry and Lucida's second in the 1000 Guineas means my each way double is still alive. Richard Fahey's charge victory in the Northumberland Plate last June was my biggest win of last season and his second in the Chester Cup twelve months ago is what put him at the top of my tracker list. He was drawn in stall 11 that day and was held up before Spencer made an almost Arazi type move on him round the final turn which almost came off. The fact that he came so close despite coming from such a poor position marked him as very well handicapped. Tomorrow he's a lot higher in the ratings but he is better drawn in 5 and just as importantly Chester is the best course for weight carrying in the country as they are always on the turn. With even luck I'm hopeful he'll go very close.

Chester Cup:
Lucida(1000 Guineas)(2nd)Angel Gabrial £10ew dbl @ 11/2 and 14/1 (lost)
Angel Gabrial £15ew @ 10/1 and £20w @ 10/1

(-230)

Newmarket - 3rd May

                                                                    Finsceal Beo - 2007


    Estidhkaar ran no sort of race in the 2000 Guineas yesterday but like I said in my post on Friday evening, it's a tough ask to find the winner of the race. I suppose Gleneagles backers will smile wryly at that comment.

    I've done my money on the 1000 already really with High Celebrity being injured but the Tiggy Wiggy/Anthem Alexander/Cursory Glance formline from the Lowther (best 2yo race of last season imo) that she represented via her staying on third behind the first two named in the Cheveley Park is sort of tenuously represented by 11/2 shot today Lucida who was second behind Cursory Glance in the Moyglare. Like Finsceal Beo she is trained by Jim Bolger and won the Rockfel last season and that's enough for me to get involved in what looks a weakish renewal. I don't think she's an amazing price by any means but I have a far better record in the 1000 than the 2000 and it's a race that tends to go to one of the better 2yos rather than an unexposed one. Stakes are low because she's not my main choice for the race and I've doubled her with Angel Gabrial who I think has a cracking chance in the Chester Cup on Wednesday, a race I'll make more comment on later in the week.


1000 Guineas:
High Celebrity £15 (nr)
Lucida £25w @ 11/2 (2nd)

Lucida(2nd)Angel Gabrial(Chester Cup) £10ew dbl @ 11/2 and 14/1

(-160)
                                                                     

Newmarket - 2nd May

                                                                      Haafhd - 2004


    I've already posted my thoughts on the 2000 Guineas having backed Estidhkaar at 12's after his second in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury a fortnight ago. Most of Hannon's charges seem to be needing their debut run of the season and with that in mind I loved the way he battled back once headed that day and whilst this is a really tough event I'm happy enough with the price - I've just topped up at 9.6 on the machine. The two contenders from Ballydoyle both look short enough for me first time out but finding value in classics is always tough as we're so much in the dark in terms of
being able to analyse ability levels and trip requirements this early in these horses careers. Compare and contrast with all aged events later in the season where the form is laid bare to a much larger extent and one can see that you really need a price to get involved. I did mention last season that I don't do well with double figure priced horses in conditions events and I do have a budget for these bets (it was £100 last season and is doubled this) but the Classics and the Arc are races where I am more likely to play at those type odds.

2000 Guineas:
Estidhkaar £60w @ 10/1 (lost)

(-120)