31/12/2015

Cheltenham - 1st Jan

    Top Notch has been a bit of a nearly horse this season but tomorrow's Relkeel hurdle over two and a half miles looks tailor made for him as he's always looked a horse who'd appreciate further than the minimum trip. Add to that the weight he gets off Whisper and Cole Harden and the form boosts he's received over the holiday period from Hargam and Identity Thief and I can only conclude that 5/2 is a steal. Simple as that really.

    It's no surprise I've been thinking of backing Aubusson in the Dipper earlier on in the card but he'll need to improve a lot over what he achieved at Uttoxeter on his chasing bow and Three Musketeers looks a formidable opponent so I'm leaving him alone.

Relkeel Hurdle:
Top Notch £50w @ 5/2 (lost)

(+13.51)

28/12/2015

Leopardstown - 28th Dec

    Willie Mullins is a fantastic trainer but I feel some his non Ricci owners have to sort of take a backseat with their horses, something we see today with Arctic Fire asked to tackle three miles on deep ground despite there being a perfectly good race for him over his best trip tomorrow. I'm not too bothered though as his presence at the head of the market for the Christmas Hurdle in a couple of hours has made it a good race to get involved in and 4/1 about Martello Tower is just too big. Last season's Albert Bartlett winner has optimum conditions today and although it's a slight negative that this is his first run of the season I think that the price is enough of a compensation. With any sort of pipe opener under his belt he'd be by far the most likely winner of this so 4s is well worth snapping up. Arctic Fire isn't his only worthwhile rival and Alpha Does Obeaux is well respected but this horse looks more a chaser to me, he's not that economical at his flights, and ultimately it comes down to how ready the selection is for this test. This is a Grade 1 contest so you would think his trainer would have him close to 100%. That's the logic anyway.

Christmas Hurdle:
Martello Tower £40w @ 4/1 (lost)

(+63.51)

27/12/2015

Kempton - 27th Dec

    Despite a losing day overall yesterday I thoroughly enjoyed the racing and Tea for Two's win was so heart warming. Following a stable does make a winner, especially in a big race, all the sweeter and the sky is the limit for this horse. As for the King George, Vautour ran an ungodly race to go so close despite losing ground by jumping to the left at a lot of his fences and if he were mine I'd be going for gold with him as Cheltenham will suit him much more and he will probably have his ground as well.
    Just the one bet today. Sprinter Sacre should win the Desert Orchid but can we say for sure he's back? I kind of want to ask that question at 8/13 and with Sire De Grugy being if anything even less trustworthy I reckon Vibrato Valtat is worth a small play at 8/1. He finished legless in third at Sandown behind SDG but he got too far behind that day and had to use up all his energy reserves just to get on terms before the last couple of fences. Special Tiara doesn't go today so I expect lesser pace and the selection should be more in his comfort zone as they approach the business end of the race. To win he needs the big two to both run below form but given their overall profiles I think that's less than an 8/1 shot.

Desert Orchid Chase:
Vibrato Valtat £30w @ 8/1 (lost)

(+103.51)

26/12/2015

Kempton & Leopardstown - 26th Dec

    Today's racing is the highlight of my and I suspect a lot of other people's Christmas. The King George has attracted a monster field, it's the best renewal I can remember. Looking at the declared lineup I kind of feel the race has been analysed to death, there isn't a whole lot of value in the prices now, and I'm happy enough with double figures about the two time defending champ. Hand on heart I don't really think Silviniaco Conti will win but he's slightly overpriced and I do think we'll see a completely different performance today compared to his rather tired effort at Haydock. Don Cossack is a worthy favourite and worth a cover bet.
    As a follower of his stable it's no surprise I'm in Tea for Two's camp in the Feltham. He jumped and travelled superbly at Exeter earlier this month and although there is a smidgeon of doubt about the three miles today I think this has been somewhat overplayed. Yes, he didn't really stay when tried over the trip in the Fixed Brush race at Haydock but that was a big field competitive handicap run at a decent pace and Lizzie had him up top throughout. He faces just the six rivals today and they won't go as fast. Native River is respected and he did look a chaser of promise last time out at Newbury but Un Temps Pour Tout was ridden without much restraint that day and set the race up for him. I also think Kempton will suit the selection more as well.
    Over in Ireland I have bets in the Juvenile Hurdle and the Grade 1 Novice Chase. In the former we have a fascinating market that has turned upside down since it was opened earlier in the week. Initially the Mullins trained Footpad was around 6/4 with Rashaan put in at 5/2 generally and 11/4 in a place. I took that price as he looks easily the form horse in the race based on his impressive run at Fairyhouse and really he wasn't introduced as a shortie simply because his connections aren't that fashionable. Today though I arrive home from Christmas day spent with the family to discover that Footpad has drifted to 3s and a Gordon Elliot creature having his first run for the stable has been hyped into 7/2 with the likely winner still at 5/2. I like this as a Willie Mullins drifter is always a sign they won't win and Rashaan may be the bet of day.
    Not surprisingly there hasn't been a drift on Douvan later on in the card and although he'll likely be fearsome tough to get beat I like my position in the race having taken 7/1 about Ttebbob and just under that price about Sizing John. The former is a s p e c t a c u l a r jumper of a fence who will be hard to peg back, especially on heavy ground. However I've been bummed on my initial bet. When I placed it the each way terms were 1/5 first three. With only four declared though the layer I placed it with are only paying me two places now, even though my bet was ante post. Now, I'm not that bothered as I'm not an each way punter much of the time, but changing your each way terms in this way is out of order. Yes, layers are unfortunate the way this race has played out with regard to the place terms. If they were offering three places punters like me would be in a terrific position - but equally I'm sure there are players out there who took prices about Kitten Rock and others who have lost their money now, and rightfully so. Bookies need to take the rough with the smooth and this invidious changing of terms that should be set in stone once an ante post position has been taken and confirmed is not a good sign for the future. Anyway, back to the race. Ttebbob is 4s now and I have topped up at that and also put in an IR lay bet at 5/2 as he's sure to trade shorter at some point given his running style. I don't fancy Sizing John quite as much given the ground but 6/1 is fair and I've topped up at that price.
    To anyone reading this good luck with your bets today and enjoy the rest of the holiday period.

Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle:
Rashaan £40w @ 265/100 (lost)

Kauto Star Novices' Chase:
Tea for Two £40 @ 5/2 (won)

Racing Post Novice Chase:
Ttebbob £10ew @ 7/1, £40w @ 4/1 (fell)
Sizing John £25w @ 632/100 (2nd)

King George VI Chase:
Silviniaco Conti £25w @ 114/10 (pu)
Don Cossack £20w @ 5/2 (fell)

(+133.51)

19/12/2015

Christmas Racing

    I gave myself a self fist bump today as I managed to avoid betting Houblon Des Obeaux in the big handicap chase at Ascot today. He was most disappointing when I was on in the Hennessy and had been dropped 6lbs by the assessor since that run - so with a 5lb claimer on today he was effectively 11lbs lower in the handicap. My resolve to avoid these type races remained strong though so I feel I won money today even though I had no bet.

    The racing over Christmas is mouth watering this season with the King George narrowly being the highlight. I'm not overly confident with my position on Silviniaco Conti given the standard of some of the opposition and the poorish form of the stable, but I have a big price about him and have covered on Don Cossack who looks far and away the biggest danger. I don't necessarily think this horse is the best chaser on the planet, but his form away from Cheltenham reads very well even if some of the events he won were a bit soft and he just appeals more than Cue Card and Vautour who both are better horses going left handed.

    I said the King George was narrowly the highlight of the holiday period action and it's run close by the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown on the same day. Douvan, Sizing John, Kitten Rock and Ttebob are all set to line-up and if they all make it we are in for a spectacular race. The former is naturally the market leader but 4/7 is incredibly short and I have to take him on. Yes he jumped perfectly well on his chase debut but Ttebob will go a fearsome pace here putting all his rivals jumping under maximum pressure and so I would rather have that horse and Sizing John (both with more experience over the larger obstacles) in my camp at decent odds than an odds-on shot running for connections who have had shorties turned over twice in this race the last two years. I've watched a lot of novices this season and the three that stand out from a jumping standpoint are No More Heroes, Vaniteux and Ttebob. Vaniteux is out at Christmas as well but is odds-on, Ttebob is 7s. Nice.


King George:
Silviniaco Conti £25w @ 114/10
Don Cossack £20w @ 5/2

Racing Post Novice Chase:
Ttebbob £10ew @ 7/1
Sizing John £10w @ 68/10

12/12/2015

Ante-Post

    Today's card at Cheltenham is interesting but not a betting one for me. If I had to have a go in the Caspian I would chance Champagne West who I backed a few times in Novice chases last year. As I've wrote on here though I'm trying to avoid jumps handicaps unless I have a tracker in one. 

    Naturally I'm hoping Peace and Co opens his account for the season in the International and I'm confident he will. His stock has risen in the Champion Hurdle market because of Faugheen's defeat a month or so ago but he'll still need to improve 10lbs on his form from last season.

    SkyBet went NRNB yesterday on the four championship races and I was very happy to see Don Poli at a mouth watering 7/1 for the Gold Cup. I was very pleased with his pipe opener at Aintree and chances are he'll be my biggest bet in March. Before that win the other week he was trading at 12 and 13 on Betfair for whatever reason and I snaffled some of that up. Djakadam scares me more than any of his other rivals and I'll probably end up covering on him. The one bet I regret at this stage is my premature taking of 16s about Shantou Village for the Neptune given his trainer's comments about stepping up in trip but I've nullified that mistake slightly by taking 10/1 about him winning any race at the Festival. Fingers crossed we see Apache Stronghold before the turn of the year (he's had a slight setback according to Noel Meade) and although Whisper was disappointing at Newbury on Hennessy day he's a spring/good ground animal and I still like him for the World Hurdle.



King George:
Silviniaco Conti £20w @ 12/1

--

Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £25w @ 122/10

Neptune:
Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £15w @ 13/1

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £14w @ 31/1

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £30w @ 94/10 and £15w @ 7/1 NRNB
Holywell £5w @ 43/1

Any Race:
Shantou Village £10w @ 10/1


07/12/2015

Uttoxeter - 8th Dec

    I mentioned the presence of Abracadabra Sivola in my tracker last Friday and he appeals as a decent enough bet in the Novices' Handicap Chase at Uttoxeter tomorrow. He didn't jump well at all last time out at Newbury but that was a fiercely competitive race over a course with some of the stiffest fences a chaser can be asked to clear and this test tomorrow is notably easier from all angles - field size, pace and the stiffness of the obstacles. The most noteworthy piece of form in his locker is that second to Native River at Exeter where he looked the likeliest winner until after the last, but I think it unwise to take that form too literally. Native River was less suited by the way that race was run and stepped up markedly when winning again a week or so later. That said the selection has scope off his current mark and has a handicap in him - although I would prefer more exposed rivals if I'm honest.
Douglas Family Novices' Limited Handicap Chase:
Abracadabra Sivola £40w @ 6/1 (lost)

(+203.51)

04/12/2015

Exeter - 4th Dec

    I'm kind of satisfied with how my jumps season has gone thus far but my profit would be a lot better if it wasn't for getting sucked into handicaps. On the flat I only back horses in those type races who have gone into my tracker at some point, whereas in the winter I can't seem to resist getting suckered into analysing the big events and getting involved. That's something that will change from now on - I'll be employing the same methods that I use on the level. I have a couple of tracker jumpers already and I'll just stick with those. Abracadabra Sivola is one of those animals and I resisted backing him last week at Newbury as the fences there are quite formidable but he's well handicapped judging by his run behind Native River the time before that. I expect Tea For Two to take to fences with more aplomb than his stable companion, he jumped the fixed brush obstacles at Haydock like he was gagging for them the other week and I make him a decent bet in the novice chase at Exeter this afternoon. I was all over the horse at Haydock and was very disappointed with his effort but I think the combination of ground, three mile trip and the way he was ridden (prominant in a strongly run race) meant he just ran out of stamina. Trip and ground are ok today and I expect a big run. As for the opposition, Calipto is feared and brings a decent level of form to the race but he carries a penalty and he's mainly been campaigned over two miles and on better ground. Golden Doyen is a horse I like but he's looked a sketchy jumper to say the least so far in his chasing career.

Harry Dutfield Memorial Novices' Chase:
Tea For Two £40w @ 100/30 (won)

(+243.51)


29/11/2015

Fairyhouse - 29th Nov

    Gotta admit yesterday hurt. I was so confident about Top Notch for the Fighting Fifth and the only reason I don't go in heavier was the non-runner loss on Hargam in the same race. That said I tend to be a level stakes punter when it comes to conditions races as I've found through the years that oftentimes my strongest fancies lose whilst ones I'm not so sure about win. I'm ok with that in general but getting a race pretty much spot on in terms of being against the front two in the market but still having the money burgled is frustrating. Sunday is a different day though and this time I'll be cheering on those pesky Gigginstown colours. The Drinmore is one of my favourite jumps races even though the one time I've been to Fairyhouse was the year the meeting was abandoned after the Royal Bond because of high winds. This year's renewal looks well up to scratch with four or five really nice prospects taking it in and after re-watching some of the participants most recent races I think the prices are a bit off. Layers tend to frame markets based around who most punters want to back and you can't blame them for that, but most punters aren't that disciplined or form inclined and tend to go for hype. No More Heroes is a serious looking prospect and was fine first time out over the larger obstacles but I struggle to see him as a true 11/8 shot in such a good field. I think the claims of Free Expression, Monksland and Outlander are pretty much just as valid and so I've backed the latter simplyc because he's the largest price of the quartet. Yes he was slightly fortunate in beating Free Expression at Punchestown given how that horse was hampered but it's far from certain a reversal will take place here, I think it's 50/50 in all honesty, and so the price differential between the two (4/1-11/2) is a bit out of line. The ground at Fairyhouse will be softer than it was for that race and that will suit the selection and whilst I wouldn't call him an each way bet to nothing (it's not even a four horse contest with Shantou Flyer holding possible place claims) he looks overpriced and the firm holding those odds are offering a money back special on the race (free bet if second.)

Drinmore Novice Chase:
Outlander £20ew @ 11/2 (NR)

28/11/2015

Newbury and Newcastle - 28th Nov

    I've already posted on my liking for Houblon Des Obeaux's chances in today's Hennessy and I'm happy the ground has come right for him after he was disappointing on good going at Ascot first time out - my 20/1 ante-post has been topped up this morning. It's a shame Coneygree doesn't run but Saphir Du Rheu does bring that bit of class to the race at the head of the weights and he's to be feared obviously. He's trading at around 4/1 this morning and if memory serves I think Denman was a similar price eight years ago. The Tank won his first Hennessy off 161 and SDR is rated 163 which sort of illustrates the task he faces. I wouldn't back the horse but he's far from the worst value in the race given that Smad Place (won't stay) and Bob's Worth (gone at the game) are single figures also. My selection is on a similar mark to last year and will relish conditions and whilst he's value this race normally falls to a second season chaser and I just have to hope there isn't another Many Clouds in the line-up.

    My other bet today is on Top Notch in the Fighting Fifth. I ballsed up big-time last weekend when backing Hargam for this. I expected the race would cut up badly - and I even put store by the BBC weather forecast for the Newcastle area for the week, they predicted a dry week!! Hargam doesn't go of course but his stable companion loves a bit of cut and 5/1 is just too big. He has excellent claims of reversing form with Irving from last week given that that was his first run of the season and Nicholls charge looks vulnerable today - he's been very busy in recent weeks. Whilst I sort of respect the market leader Wicklow Brave he was hard fit from the flat when finishing respectably enough behind Nichols Canyon and Faugheen in the Morgiana and was flattered mightily. He's well worth taking on at his price.


Fighting Fifth Hurdle:
Hargam £15 NR
Top Notch £40w @ 5/1 (2nd)

Hennessy Gold Cup:
Houblon Des Obeaux £10w @ 20/1 and £10ew @ 14/1 (lost)

(+112)


25/11/2015

Newbury - 26th Nov

    Newbury's big winter meeting starts tomorrow and the highlight is the Novice Chase at 14:10. I think the three to concentrate are those without penalties and I would make Beast of Burden a narrow favourite for the race so I was happy to see 10/3 available in a couple of places when perusing oddschecker upon returning home from work. He did unseat in his first outing over fences last month at Chepstow, but before that mishap he'd really impressed with his jumping and I think slightly easier ground will help tomorrow. The Pipe horse who heads the market didn't really impress me at Cheltenham ten days or so ago and I slightly suspect he could be a bit tripless. Value at Risk I do like as a potential chaser but I'm happy to oppose him given how hot this race is considering he's not taken a fence in public before. 

Worcester Novices' Chase:
Beast of Burden £40w @ 100/30 (fell)

(+197)

22/11/2015

Ante-Post

    I've already posted my thoughts on yesterday's Betfair and Amlin Chase's and how they impacted upon the King George and my thoughts on that market but I also feel the Irving/Top Notch duel was almost as interesting. The latter out jumped the former throughout and just seemed to get out speeded in the long run in to the line (for me Haydock could do with spacing out their obstacles a bit better, I would like to see the last flight somewhat closer to the finish line.) In addition to that Top Notch was having his first run of the season and will come on for the race. Going forward I like all three of Nicky's trio of Triumph horses from last March, I'm involved ante-post on Peace and Co for the Champion Hurdle and I've taken a little bit of 11/2 about Hargam for next Saturday's Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. This race looks like cutting up quite badly and with the weather forecast generally dry for next week in the North East I think his trainer will let Hargam take part. Like Top Notch he needed his first race of the season when he was given a tough task in a handicap at Cheltenham and Arctic Fire it seems to me is the only credible looking opponent at this stage (Peace and Co is reportedly being aimed at the Bula and even if Irving runs he would be one to be against given how busy he's been recently.)

    My other recent bet is also a bit ground dependent but at the other end of the scale. Houblon Des Obeaux is similar to Tea for Two in that he's come down the handicap despite doing nothing much wrong in his recent races. His rating when running Coneygree to 7 lengths giving him a pound in the Denman Chase back in February was 162 - and he runs off 156 in the Hennessy next weekend. Since that run at Newbury he was well beaten in the Gold Cup (besides the front four plenty of good horses were mullared in that race) fell in the Scottish National after a hard season and in a race run on unsuitable ground, and didn't show up first time out at Ascot a three weeks ago (good ground again.) This horse is a high class handicap chaser who needs a good bit of dig and in the hope he gets it I took 20s about him for this year's Hennessy a few days ago. He was second in the race last year off a pound higher mark and although this looks a tougher renewal he's over priced. I think Coneygree and Saphir Du Rheu simply take too much out of the market at present and it's a race I want a couple of double figure priced horses running for me.


Fighting Fifth Hurdle:
Hargam £15w @ 11/2

Hennessy Gold Cup:
Houblon Des Obeaux £10w @ 20/1

King George:
Silviniaco Conti £10w @ 14/1



Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £20w @ 13/1

Neptune:
Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £15w @ 13/1

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £14w @ 31/1

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £20w @ 82/10
Holywell £5w @ 43/1


21/11/2015

King George thoughts

    After a terrific afternoon's racing the market for Boxing Day's great race has had a major shake-up with Vautour hardening as favourite and Cue Card steaming into single figures after his scintillating win at Haydock. I wasn't that impressed with the former though - admittedly he would have needed the run but he jumped out to his left on a number of occasions and with stamina over three miles unproven he must be taken on at his price. I won't be doing that with Cue Card who has failed a number of times at Kempton and I think the layers have over-reacted to Silviniaco Conti's rather tired ending to the Betfair. He looked in terrific condition and jumped best throughout but to my eyes he went just a bit too hard given how soft the ground was. These were tactics that worked to perfection in last year's King George and one can see the logic behind them, last year it made Champagne Fever run with the choke out throughout the race. However Cue Card is a far more experienced chaser and he just kept finding and finding despite the odd clumsy leap. Ultimately one layer went 14/1 about the Nicholls horse immediately after the race and I had to take some of that. The theme of this jumps season so far is the premature writing off of top class chasers and it would be very hasty to do the same with this one, particularly given who handles him.

King George:
Silviniaco Conti £10w @ 14/1

Haydock - 21st Nov

    Having a list of tracker horses or following a trainer means oftentimes one can get in on the ground floor on a price and I took 16s about Tea for Two in today's Fixed Brush event at Haydock when I was perusing the ante-post odds last Saturday evening. Living twenty miles or so from the track I knew the ground would be ok for the horse and of course Nick Williams loves to target the race having won it twice in recent(ish) times. It's easy to make the case for him today - he won the Lanzarote by 16 lengths last January and is only 7lbs higher today. Yes, that race lacked today's depth for sure but it goes without saying that the horse is well handicapped and although I worry slightly about the extra distance today, particularly on ground verging on heavy, against that is the intermediate level of the obstacles which should suit a horse who has a chasers physique. I topped up at 8/1 earlier in the week and although beating the book on a regular basis did me not much good during the flat season, fingers crossed things will be different this winter.

"Fixed Brush" Handicap Hurdle:
Tea For Two £20ew @ 12/1 (lost)

(+237)

    

16/11/2015

Ante-Post

    I don't think I've enjoyed a day's racing as much as yesterday's in quite some time. I had a winner, saw Sprinter Sacre finally look like a proper racehorse again and Faugheen getting beat was the icing on the cake. I still think the latter is the likeliest winner of the Champion Hurdle but he is vulnerable if not allowed to dominate (not that that was the reason he was beaten, he was very burly) and I can see Peace and Co doing him up that hill. I mentioned on Saturday how impressed I was with Shantou Village and whilst I was initially annoyed at my premature bet on him for the Neptune given that I didn't even think about the possibility of him being stepped up in trip I'm happy with the price I have and we'll just have to see if it's a wasted bet or not.

    As a stable follower it was nice to see Coo Star Sivola completely outrun his odds in the Triumph trial that opened Sunday's card and he looks a horse of some promise. Nick lacks a stable star now Reve De Sivola is coming to the end of his career and it's nice to see a good young one coming through. This Saturday is Betfair Chase day at Haydock which features the Fixed Brush race that Nick has won twice in recent years. With that in mind it's a certain bet that he'd have had the race in mind for Tea For Two for a long time (ran in the same prep race that Aubusson took in last season at Chepstow) and living not a million miles away from the track I was happy to see a fair amount of rain in the region as for the horse over the weekend - I took some 16/1 a couple of days back. He's off 141 now which is only half a stone more than the rating he had in the Lanzarote. This race is made for him and he'll probably go off in the 5 or 6/1 region.

Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10ew @ 16/1



Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £20w @ 13/1

Neptune:
Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £14w @ 31/1

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £20w @ 82/10
Holywell £5w @ 43/1

15/11/2015

Cheltenham - 15th Nov

    It's become a bit of a cliche that John Ferguson's generally flat bred hurdlers are great at tearing it up on flat tracks again modest opponents and yet despite that Penglai Pavilion was odds-on for Friday's novice hurdle against a couple of promising opponents and when prices opened for today's Supreme trial that opens an excellent card at Cheltenham Maputo was favourite over Altior. Some bets just seem obvious as soon as a list of prices are perused and this is one of them. Henderson's charge had nothing to beat when opening his account for the season at Chepstow last month and I was more impressed at his effort at Ascot later in that month when he and one rival pulled 20 lengths clear of a half decent field of novices. There's one or two well thought of rivals in the race today who I expect to be harder to beat than Maputo (form is all on fast ground) but my bet today is one that didn't require a huge amount of analysis. That 3/1 was just too big and I later topped up at 11/4.

    I've also taken 3/1 about Simply Ned in the Shloer Chase. Sprinter Sacre is suited by the conditions of this race as he receives weight from most of his opponents but he's looked a shadow of the magnificent chaser he was and needs to be opposed at his cramped odds. The selection ran a super race in this last year, an edition that worked out really well, and he's the obvious alternative given Somersby's age and Mr Mole's penalty and lack of form at the track.

Supreme Trial Novices' Hurdle:
Altior £50w @ 285/10 (won) (rule4)

Shloer Chase:
Simply Ned £40w @ 3/1 (lost)

(+297)



14/11/2015

Cheltenham - 14th Nov

    My confidence in Johns Spirit for today's big race remains steadfast but I'm worried about the weather forecast. He acts on soft ground and ran a smasher in the race last year but I do think he's better on more decent ground and I'm just hoping the rain isn't as heavy and as prolonged as is forecast. Re-watching last year's renewal Johns Spirit was held up in a relatively slowly run edition and took the lead at the last before being chinned on the line - today's race is sure to be more truly run with a host of front runners in the line-up which should suit him more and hopefully he won't be asked to lead till well after the last jump. I think it's a slightly stronger race this year and I fear Boondooma and King's Palace most of his rivals. I was all over the latter for the RSA last year and whilst I couldn't back him for this at his price given his overall form profile (not proven in big fields and when not allowed to dominate) he's a horse with stacks of talent and isn't easily written off. Boondooma won a hum drum race at the open meeting very impressively, kicking on when challenged after helping set a strong pace over two miles last time out and he could be one of those second season progressive chasers who is well handicapped. The sponsors have Johns Spirit at 14s this morning and I've topped up. My best guess is there will be a younger rival too well handicapped for him to handle today but it's hard to see him out of the frame (five places paid) if he gets round.

    I managed to catch the novice hurdle live yesterday during my lunch break at work and was deeply impressed with Shantou Village. Unfortunately I had to get back to my desk before I saw the trainer's post-race interview and I took some 16s about him for the Neptune without hearing that he was going to be stepped up in trip. This seems premature now with the Albert Bartlett just as likely a Festival target for him.

Paddy Power Gold Cup:
Johns Spirit £30ew @ 13/1(lost)

(+206.25)

12/11/2015

Open Meeting / Ante-Post

    Well, the jumps really kick in tomorrow with the three day open meeting at Cheltenham and whilst it's never been a heavy betting event for me there are plenty of clues for future reference and the action is top notch. I have had one bet in the main feature of the weekend, taking 12/1 about Johns Spirit for the Paddy Power. He won the race two years ago and was only just run out of a repeat last year - he loves the old course and as he will have better ground to aid him than he had twelve months ago he appeals as a sporting each way poke given that he's only a pound higher in the ratings. I'll post more about the race on Saturday.

    I've been quiet on the ante-post front, it's a definite strategy this season to try and avoid having a long list of Festival liabilities and the unfortunate non-runners that come with such a scatter gun policy. I've topped up my position on Peace and Co in the Champion Hurdle simply because Sky Bet did a 24 hour price boost on him.

Paddy Power Gold Cup:
Johns Spirit £15ew @ 12/1

--

Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £20w @ 13/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £14w @ 31/1

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £20w @ 82/10
Holywell £5w @ 43/1



06/11/2015

Wincanton - 7th Nov

    Plenty of good races at both Aintree and Wincanton tomorrow and I'm looking forward in particular to seeing Simonsig back in action. From a betting point of view the Elite Hurdle is the only contest that has any sort of angle in it. As hot a trainer as Harry Skelton is I don't see how his charge in this, Zarib, is favourite. Yes he ran ok in a couple of novice/juvenile hurdles last season and on the face of it being beaten 12 lengths by Peace and Co only getting 3lbs seems a decent effort but they went no gallop in that race at Cheltenham  and he was flattered - basically he's half the price he should be and makes the book. I have the race pretty much between the Nicholls pair and with Twiston-Davies choosing All Yours it means bookies are over-pricing Irving. He would have won the race last year but for an unfortunate fall at the last and 5/1 is very fair. I did hum and haw about the each way given his two PU's as well as the F last season and I'm still not wholly convinced I've done the right thing but ultimately if he stays on his feet I don't see more than two horses being progressive or good enough to beat him.

Elite Hurdle:
Irving £25ew @ 5/1 (won)

(+266.25)

02/11/2015

Exeter - 3rd Nov

    I spent much of October re-watching replays of most of the last Chelteham Festival, partly for future form study and partly because the flat was pissing me off. Anyway, one thing that struck me in March as well as last month upon reviewing the race was how much better than the bare result Apache Stronghold was in the JLT. Carberry's tactics on this horse and many other of his mounts is to keep hold of them for as long as possible but with Vautour setting Prestbury Park alight with his jumping Paul obviously felt the need to close upon him before the turn in. He was never going to win the race bar a mistake from the winner and this early move probably cost him a few lengths at the death. The reason I've bought this up is because I think similar comments can be attributed to Vibrato Valtat two days earlier in the Arkle, In trying to keep tabs on Un De Sceaux he probably sacrificed second to God's Own. Those two meet again at Exeter tomorrow in the Haldon Gold Cup and both receive a nice chunk of weight from Sire De Grugy who looks one to take on (was clear favourite at 9/4 when the market opened for the race.) Even though God's Own won the race last season this looks a slightly better edition and he's gone up 5lbs since then. Conditions (small field, softish ground) will really suit Vibrato Valtat who jumped very well for a novice last season. I've taken advantage of the free bet I received for Dynaste finishing second on Saturday.

Haldon Gold Cup:
Vibrato Valtat £25w @ 3/1 & £25fb (via Dynaste) @ 3/1 (won)

(+110)

31/10/2015

Wetherby - 31st Oct

    Just the one bet today with my fancy for the Fillies and Mares race at Keeneland seemingly pulled out after not travelling over that well. Luckily the Breeders Cup declare for their races much earlier than we do over here so it wasn't an ante-post bet.

    The conditions of the Charlie Hall at Wetherby favour the three horses carrying 11st - Dynaste, Cue Card and Ballynagour. By conditions I mainly mean the penalty system in play for the race but also trip and ground. Sam Winner and Many Clouds concede lumps of weight to the horses mentioned above and both are staying types who are best at distances in excess of three miles. Holywell I've backed for the Gold Cup but he's always best watched first time out, especially on ground softer than he likes. That leaves Menorah of those in the race with penalties to carry and whilst he had the same welter burden last season this field looks a lot stronger (Silviniaco Conti needed the race twelve months ago.)

    Dynaste and Cue Card are closely matched on a number of meetings between the pair and I just favour the former partly because his last big run (last year's King George) is a lot fresher in the memory and whilst he's coming back from injury his run in France over hurdles should have put him spot on. Cue Card just didn't finish his races at Aintree and Punchestown last spring and although 7/1 when betting opened was fair at 4/1 now he makes no appeal. Ballynagour looks the main danger to the selection and runs well fresh so should be thereabouts. I would consider covering on him but feel he's better over fences on good ground. 

Charlie Hall Chase:
Dynaste £15w @ 5/1 and £25w @ 7/2 mbs (2nd)

    

28/10/2015

Weekend Action

    I keep prematurely writing off my flat season and then discovering a bet. I don't usually pay a whole lot of attention to the Breeders Cup but found myself looking at the fillies and mares turf simply because Legatissimo is such a chronic price. She's been on the go since April and I just don't trust 3yos this time of year from Ballydoyle who've had a long year. So her price makes the race a good each one and whilst I initially thought of Miss France the ground looks like it will be against her. Bawina is a filly I backed in the Sun Chariot where she received a poor ride from Maxime Guyon who managed to find lots of trouble in running. Happily Peslier takes over now and with good soft ground form over 10f trip and ground will be fine. She's slightly below the top level in Europe having found Amazing Maria, Ervedya and Esoterique too good for her this season but if we presume Legatissimo bombs out on Saturday then the race won't take as much winning as a Group 1 over here. 16/1 is good value.

    My first bet of the jumps season will be on Dynaste in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. He's just about the best horse in the field when he's on a going day and his hurdles run in France should put him spot on for this. I'll go into greater detail about this race on Saturday.

Breeders Cup F&M Turf: Bawina £20ew @ 16/1

Charlie Hall: Dynaste £15w @ 5/1

24/10/2015

Flat Postscript - Jumps Thoughts

    The first thing to say about my flat season is the final profit/loss figure is disappointing but weirdly I consider the last six months to have been a success, mainly with regard to the future and things I will put in place next season. Over the years my most profitable kind of bet has been long priced handicappers in big ante-post events like the Cambridgeshire, the Hunt Cup and the Northumberland Plate. I have pics of my best winners all over my flat and these type winners - Bronze Angel, Angel Gabrial, Caribbean Monarch, Nice One Clare and Beachamp Pilot - dominate. This season though a number of the tracker horses I found during the year ended up going in at 8/1+ in really sort of humdrum races - I had a 14/1 shot go in at Doncaster on the opening race of their card on Stewards Cup day. This excites me as I don't need to rely on finding sorts for big ante-post races if they crop up in common or garden events during a typical year and so in future I really will be placing added importance (meaning more money staked) on horses that fall into this category - and I'll be able to afford this by placing a budget on shorter priced fancies. These type bets - less than 4/1 - really haven't been that profitable for me over the years and so I'm going to get away from them. It's so important to analysis one's performance in betting and budgeting bets at longer prices on group races, something I started last season, has really worked well - losses in that sphere have been vastly reduced the last two seasons.

    Anyway on to the Jumps. Like most serious punters this tends to revolve around those magical four days in March at Cheltenham and although I'll be active during the winter I don't as much at this time of year as during the height of summer and I'm not looking for tracker types apart from Nick Williams inmates that I always look out for. The last couple of Festivals have been disappointing and I put this mainly down to being too free and easy with my ante-post bets. I simply have too many of them and the non-runner count has been crippling last season and the one before. Having said that four of the last six years I have been on a horse before the end of November at double figures that has ended up winning the following March. Sizing Europe I initially backed for his Arkle during the previous October at 20/1 - Sprinter Sacre I backed for his not long after the 2011 Festival at 12s, Jezki I punted for his Champion Hurdle at 20/1 not long after his Supreme third and last year I backed Uxizandre for the Ryanair well before Christmas at 14s. Sadly the last two named I went off big style and didn't top up on. So I want a smaller band of backed horses but with more on and with a nod to bigger prices - the chance of a NR must be factored in more and so at much less than 10/1 I ain't interested - unless it's Don Poli lol.

    This entry is getting a bit too long so I'll finish with a rundown of my current Cheltenham fancies.
Faugheen will be incredibly hard to beat in the Champion Hurdle but there was a lot of like about Peace and Co's Triumph win on unsuitably slow ground. I think the old course will suit him more and with better ground almost guaranteed on the Tuesday I think he'll give the champ something to think about - I'm just hoping for a decent sized field and a fast pace. Whisper ran well enough in last year's World Hurdle despite no prep whatsoever and beat the winner when they met again at Aintree. With thoughts of novice chasing out the window he should have a far smoother prep this season and double figure quotes even at this stage are very fair. Apache Stronghold may just about be my favourite chaser in trainer and he rates better than the bare result of the JLT last March. Carberry went for him far earlier than he would have done normally that day to try and keep tabs on Vautour and he was crazy big for the Ryanair at 33/1 a few weeks ago, topped up since. Noel Meade said he wasn't keen to run him over 3m+ again after the horse got beaten by Don Poli last Christmas so I doubt he'll be aimed at the Gold Cup - his price looks a complete rick to me - have to hope Vautour goes for the longer race however. As for the blue ribband itself, it looks mouth watering at this stage and at the prices I like Don Poli and Holywell. The former looks all over a staying chaser of the highest class and he has lengthened from around 6/1 since his flop at Punchestown. Holywell ran a cracker behind Coneygree considering the ground was completely against him last March and I glady took some 44 on Betfair about him a week or so ago. No doubt I'll be posting more about these races as the months pass. 

Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £14w @ 31/1

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £20w @ 82/10
Holywell £5w @ 43/1



















18/10/2015

Woodbine - 18th Oct

    I genuinely thought I was done with the flat for the year, my tracker has been wiped and the Breeder's Cup doesn't really interest me but perusing Oddschecker this morning I came across the prices for the Canadian International this evening our time in Canada. British stables tend to farm this event and it's not a surprise that our horses head the market and whilst I expect Cannock Chase and Second Step to fight it out, their prices are all wrong. Stoute's horse is 7/4 and Cumani's 3/1. I don't think there is much between them ability wise but would argue the latter has the slightly better form profile overall and has even won abroad. I can only think their price differential is partly because Cannock Chase won last time out (a pretty ropey listed event) as opposed to Second Step's fourth place in the Irish Leger (I backed him that day and was disappointed but ultimately he just didn't stay.) The other factor could be Ryan Moore going over to ride - but so what, we saw on Found yesterday how average he can be at times and I never factor jockeys into my bets anyway - the flat bunch are all much of a muchness since Steve Cauthen retired. One slight concern is how flat Agent Murphy ran yesterday after taking in that Curragh race but then again I kind of have a lot of faith in Cumani and the knowledge he has of his charges - he surely wouldn't take a horse all that way unless he was 100% happy with him.

Canadian International:
Second Step £40w @ 3/1 (lost)

17/10/2015

Ascot - 17th Oct

    Let's get straight into it, I have a fair few wagers today. In the first I backed Agent Murphy earlier in the week expecting him to shorten from the 6/1 I took. I suppose it's such a big day that the market for all these races is quite strong and he remains at that price today. I've topped up and despite a largish field I don't think this is competitive as some of the other contests on the card and ultimately 6/1 about the best horse in the race is a good bet - it's the same price he started at in the Irish Leger, a race that had way more depth to it from a quality standpoint. He stayed on well at The Curragh suggesting two miles is ok and I'm as confident as I can be about a horse in my wheelhouse (bets in conditions events on horses priced between 4 and 8/1 is one of my most profitable betting angles) in a year where I've not done as well as in the past on those type bets.

    Sea Calisi is another of those kind of bets and although her tendency to get behind in her races is a concern given the short straight today I think she's overpriced at 7/1. She was the best horse in the Yorkshire Oaks and is fresher than Covert Love who just beat her that day so a point and half difference between the two is unjustified - I would strongly argue that the selection should be shorter than Hugo Palmer's filly in the betting. Simple Verse is also shorter than Sea Calisi, but that filly has something more than Leger boats to beat today and is easily the worst value in the race. I do fear Candarliya who heads the market as I type but there was little between the two French contenders in the Vermeille and Sea Calisi missing Longchamp (Candarliya took in a race on the Saturday) is a plus in her favour.

    I was thinking of backing Kodi Bear for the QEII but the will he/won't he clusterfuck surrounding the participation of Gleneagles and possibility of beefy rule 4's puts me off so I'm leaving the race alone. This is a shame as I want to be against Solow who isn't as far ahead of Kodi Bear and Territories as the market suggests.

    My ante-post position on Vadamos is my strongest of the day. I took 33s after reading the master trainer's comments about him after his win in Germany at the beginning of September and the topping up I've done since has left me with an average 16/1 about a 7/1 poke. Nice. There's not much I can say about this colt's form because I don't really know it, but Fabre has been good to me over the years and I trust him more than any other trainer. Naturally my possie on his horse means I'm beating the book on this race all ends up so I've added Found at 9/2. I don't normally like her trainer's 3yos this time of year as he rarely gives them much of a break (Gleneagles excepted I guess) but this filly seems tough and genuine and her form behind Golden Horn isn't that far behind Jack Hobbs and I think a stiff 10f and the short straight will suit her more than it will the favourite. At his type of price (6/4) I'd want everything in favour today and it simply is not. He's very opposable.

Long Distance Cup:
Agent Murphy £60w @ 6/1 (lost)

Fillies' & Mares:
Sea Calisi £50w @ 7/1 (lost)

Champion Stakes:
Vadamos £35w @ 16/1 (lost)
Found £40w @ 9/2 (2nd)
Free Eagle NR £10

(-516.82)





















12/10/2015

Champions Day

    This Saturday's card at Ascot will end my betting for this flat season, the tracker has been wiped clean and I'm ready for some jumping.

    I'm already on the Fabre trained Vadamos for the Champion Stakes at a huge 33/1 (topped up since this initial bet) and I've added a couple more today with the five day entries out. I'll post a more complete entry detailing my thoughts on the races on Firday evening but for now I've backed Agent Murphy in the Long Distance Cup and Sea Calisi in the Fillies & Mares race. The former has form at the track, looks like he will stay judged on his Irish Leger run and aside from Forgotten Rules (who has major ground concerns) has the best form on offer in the race. Doumen's filly was the best filly in the Yorkshire Oaks and ran a nice race on ground probably a bit too soft for her in the Vermeille and it's interesting that her French trainer bypassed Paris on Arc day with her for this race. I also like Kodi Bear in the QEII and might add Tapestry in Sea Calisi's race, I'd be really keen on her but for a rather pointless outing in the Arc where she was tailed off. I'll have to mull that one over.

Long Distance Cup:
Agent Murphy £25w @ 6/1

Fillies & Mares Stakes:
Sea Calisi £20w @ 7/1

Champion Stakes:
Vadamos £25w @ 192/10

09/10/2015

Newmarket and Chepstow - 10th Oct

   A rather disappointing run from the Godolphin filly I backed today together with the impressive way the Ballydoyle youngster won the Fillies' Mile has meant the market for the Dewhurst tomorrow has been shaken up big time. Emotionless is now available at 6/4 in a place having been around evens earlier in the week, admittedly when the ground was more of an unknown. I was impressed enough with his win at Doncaster to snap up some 12/1 quotes for the 2000 Guineas straight after the race and the form has been franked since (kind of) by Galileo Gold's effort in the Lagardere last Sunday. I'm very excited by this horse, he's the best 2yo I've seen since Frankel and don't see him losing tomorrow. Now 6/4 shots are not my betting bag so I'm not going in with a lumpy single - instead I'm doubling him with Tea for Two in the big handicap hurdle at Chepstow. As a Nick Williams follower I was naturally on when he easily landed the Lanzarote back in January and it is fascinating to see how he's been handicapped since that run. He was off 134 that day, went up to 153, was took down to 148 after his second in a novice hurdle the following month (four runner race completely against him) and after being pulled up in an attritional Albert Bartlett at the Festival has been further reduced to a handicap mark of 142 - in short a winning looking rating.

Dewhurst/Silver Trophy:
Emotionless/Tea for Two £20w dbl @ 6/4 and 6/1 (lost)

(-321.82)

08/10/2015

Newmarket - 9th Oct

    I don't have that many bets on 2yo races but when I do it's usually this time of year. The Fillies' Mile at headquarters tomorrow looks a decent renewal and it's one of those races where I looked at the odds and immediately thought things were a bit off. I've no issue with Minding being favourite for the race, she won her Group 1 well enough last time out and her stable companion franked the form in Paris but surely the Gosden creature who is second in the market is almost priced up on some sort of Golden Horn reflection type thing. Nathra has won two ordinary soft ground races very easily but this is a massive step up in class and she's at least half the odds she should be. Promising Run however has decent form not only on the ground but has won over course and distance. There was a lot to like about the way she stayed on in winning the Rockfel a couple of weeks back from a couple of nice types and I'm happy to take 6/1. Part of my bet is with Powers who offer a free bet to your stake if she's second to the fav.

Fillies' Mile:
Promising Run £25w @ 6/1 mbs and £15w @ 62/10 (lost)

(-301.82)

04/10/2015

Arc Day

    What a fantastic card we have in Paris today, Group 1 races up the ying yang and I've had quite a few bets.

    I'll start with the big race itself. Treve is a horse I don't take on lightly but there are enough chinks to think she's worth opposing at a very short price. The Arc traditionally favours 3yos who have a mid summer break after taking in a classic or two. I believe in the past what you had was these colts and fillies rested up in their stables whilst the older horses were battling it out in all aged events, look at the season Montjeu had when he was four compared to his Arc winning campaign, he didn't take the King George in at three. This isn't really a factor with Treve as they have had the Arc in mind all year naturally. However I also feel the WFA favours the 3yos. Now normally when punters talk about weight concessions in condition events I mentally switch off, the WFA scale is meant to bring horses of different aged groups together, it is not a handicap. But sometimes this scale is over generous - A 3yo colt gets 8lbs from an older horse in the Arc, they get 11lbs from them in the Eclipse in early July and 8lbs also in the Sussex Stakes in early August. I actually think the scale for the two races in England is pretty much spot on taking the time of year and the race distance into account. The Arc comes two months after the Sussex and yes it is over further but the scale should have still dropped by October. I think 5, maybe 6lbs would be more in line. Anyway, last year Treve was imperious in defending her title, she beat Flintshire into second and filling the frame were two 3yos - Taghrooda and Kingston Hill. Both very good animals but neither had had a typical Arc type prep and it has to be said the race did go much more Treve's way than these two - both were badly drawn. So I feel she is vulnerable to a high class 3yo who has had a traditional campaign and who is well drawn - step forward New Bay. He's trained by the master, would be a dual classic winner but for a chronic draw in the Poulains, and is primed to the minute for this in what looks pretty much a two horse race. I'm on ante-post and have taken 11/2 this morning at Powers with a special money back concession - if he's second to the SP fav I get my stake back as a freebie. I have sort of dismissed Golden Horn but he's been active all summer and is drawn wide. I can't have him at all.

    Onto the rest of the card. I've got involved in Antonoe in the Marcel Boussac because Ballydoyle is a terrible looking favourite for the race. She's relatively exposed and seems pretty much priced up on her name. Pascal Bary's filly looks full of promise and should be clear market leader.

    I posted my thoughts on the l'Opera a few days back, the race has cut up since and We Are looks a solid bet now. I've topped up since final decs and she looks value in not as competitive a race as it once looked.

    Finally we come to the Foret. I'm a big fan of Limato but all his good form is on a straight track and a widish looking draw round a bend on this course is far from ideal for him. Therefore he must be taken on at the price (he's 7/4). I backed Make Believe at the Royal Meeting in the mistaken belief that Gleneagles (remember him?) was worth taking on. He ran like a drain and by all accounts is a delicate horse to train, but if we give him a pass for that effort (and some horses do not like Ascot, it's a bit like York in that regard) then 6/1ish is worth a go (I did get some 7s on Friday) 

Prix Marcel Boussac:
Antonoe £40w @ 15/8 (lost)

Prix de l'Opera:
Avenir Certain NR £10
We Are £15ew @ 9/1 and £15w @ 15/2 (3rd)

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Jack Hobbs NR £15
New Bay £30w @ 575/100 and £25w @ 11/2 (3rd)

Prix de la Foret:
Make Believe £40w @ 66/10 (won)

(-261.82)












03/10/2015

Newmarket - 3rd Oct

    I've already posted my thoughts on today's Group 1 at Newmarket where I took 8/1 about Bawina on Wednesday. She's a consistent filly and it's hard to see her finishing out of the first three. I've topped up at 13/2 this morning with the Hills concession of a free bet if your selection is second. Esoterique is very short at around 6/4 and I fear Integral more, she's worth a bit of a saver.

    My other bet is on Critical Risk in the 5.15. He went into my tracker way back in May when he dead heated in a handicap over a mile at Sandown. I've backed him the last two times he's run - a fast finishing second off a slow pace at Windsor and a strange race at Yarmouth last time out on a day where the card was abandoned with a couple of races left - I haven't seen that race, it's not viewable on video form (Sporting Life) probably because of the issues they had that day. He remains off a winning mark and is in the best possible hands for a handicapper at this sort of trip.

Sun Chariot Stakes:
Bawina £15ew @ 8/1 and £25w @ 13/2 (lost)
Integral (lost) Critical Risk £10w dbl @ 7/2 and 3/1

Racing FX Currency Conversion Handicap:
Critical Risk £30w @ 7/2 (lost)

(-402.82)


01/10/2015

Arc Weekend

    I'm really excited about the Arc on Sunday. With Treve, New Bay, Golden Horn and Free Eagle amongst the runners it looks a very good renewal, only missing a Japanese runner for added spice. I've topped up on New Bay today as he has drifted to 11/2.

    Elsewhere on that card and at Newmarket on Saturday I've had a couple of each way tickles. Avenir Certain was my original fancy for the l'Opera but she isn't running now. It remains a race to get stuck into with the front two in the marker very opposable. Covert Love is slightly overrated to my mind and looks a pure 12f filly to boot and the Bolger filly looks the type who has had enough racing this year. We Are won the race on likely similar ground last season and is overpriced at 9/1 for this renewal. She hasn't had a good season to be fair but the only time she has had her optimum conditions (10f on decent ground) she ran into Treve. No such monsters lurk in this race and it's hard to see her finishing out of the frame.

    In the Sun Chariot at Newmarket Esoterique, Miss France, Integral and Bawina are all broadly fillies of similar ability and so the prices we have for them for Saturday's contest - 6/4, 4/1, 11/2 and 8/1 respectively are a bit too spaced apart and so I'm going with Bawina. She's been very consistent this year and her best run probably is her second to Amazing Maria on the July Course in the Falmouth when she wasn't beaten far and covered more ground than anything else in the race having tracker over from the stands side to the middle of the course in order to get a clear run. Esoterique has had a great season but has had things go her way and I doubt she's much better than she was in 2014. She's too short and like We Are at Lonchamp on Sunday I find it difficult to see Bawina not placing in this event.

Sun Chariot Stakes:
Bawina £15ew @ 8/1

Prix de l'Opera:
Avenir Certain NR £10
We Are £15ew @ 9/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Jack Hobbs £15w @ 10/1
New Bay £30w @ 575/100

26/09/2015

Newmarket - 26th Sept

    Up until the last few weeks I was marking this flat season down as a bit of a dud, not just from my own view as a punter but for the action overall. I thought the big races overall were sub standard and there wasn't a whole lot to look forward to. However we had a cracking weekend a fortnight ago with some excellent 2yos really coming to the fore and the action at Longchamp that Sunday really sets the scene for the Arc next week. Today's card at headquarters for me further illustrates how the 2yos have almost saved this season. The Royal Lodge, Cheveley Park and Middle Park are all well above average renewals (the latter admittedly all about the fav) and add to that little lot the best handicap of the season and we have a card to really tuck into.

    I took some 9/2 about Lumiere in the Cheveley Park earlier in the week and I haven't a whole lot to add to my thoughts about the bet that I posted on Monday. I'm pleased the ground has come right and it really bares pointing out how well she ran first time in a group race on bad tacky ground at York that would have been completely against her. I topped up at 4/1 yesterday morning and have gone in again at 7/2 at Hills with their money back as a free bet concession if your selection is second.

    The Cambridgeshire has been a good race for me and although I've gone into previous editions with stronger fancies I have a tracker horse in it and he's well over 20/1 - I'm hardly not gonna back it am I? Express Himself went into the tracker way back in April when he was a fast finishing runner-up in an ordinary handicap at Pontefract. I've backed him in all his starts since despite the fact that I normally take them off my list after a win. That victory came in a very eye catching way at Haydock in July when he managed to get over the line from Birdman despite losing three or four lengths at the start when he was very slowly away. The manner of that win was just enough to keep him in my tracker and the race today should really suit him. He's a fast finishing horse who just about stays 10f and although there isn't a whole lot of pace in this renewal with 35 runners it's difficult to imagine them going a crawl. I got 28/1 on Wednesday and have topped up at 25s, both bets each way for five places.

Cheveley Park Stakes:
Lumiere £30w @ 425/100 and £25w @ 7/2 mbs (won)

Cambridgeshire:
Express Himself £20ew @ 265/10 (lost)

(-307.82)





21/09/2015

Ante-Post

    I've been busy adding selections to my ante-post list which seems a bit large to me at the moment but I just keep seeing attractive prices. I can't remember the last time I had a bet on a 2yo race but the Cheveley Park on Saturday looks like it's been priced up wrong to me, with a heavy flavour of recency bias. Lumiere looked a world beater first time out on the July Course back in mid summer and although she got beat fair and square in the Lowther she ran really well nevertheless and I have to think better ground at the weekend will suit her much better. She's also far less exposed than her conqueror at York and has every chance of reversing that form. 9/2 is too big.

    Things haven't gone Avenir Certain's way this season but there are excuses behind her last two runs and she is overpriced for the 'Opera on Arc day. The ground was too fast for her at Newmarket in the Falmouth (she hits the ground too hard to be totally suited by it) and she was given far far too much to do in the Jean Romanet at Deauville before storming home for third. Double figure odds are well worth taking.

    I have my fingers firmly crossed that the Champion Stakes cuts up for Vadamos and I sincerely hope Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs head over to Paris a fortnight earlier. I can't see Free Eagle making the trip with them as his shrewd trainer must surely realise he has little hope of winning the race, so I've taken some 7/1 about him for Ascot.


Cheveley Park Stakes:
Lumiere £15w @ 9/2

Prix de l'Opera:
Avenir Certain £10w @ 12/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Jack Hobbs £15w @ 10/1
New Bay £15w @ 6/1

Champion Stakes:
Vadamos £10w @ 33/1
Free Eagle £10w @ 7/1

--
Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £10w @ 33/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £15w @ 86/10

--
2000 Guineas:
Emotionless £20w @ 12/1

15/09/2015

Ante-Post

    The racing last weekend was easily the highlight of this flat season with a number of notable performances from the likes of Treve, New Bay, Emotionless, Limato and Air Force One to name just a few. I took some 6/1 about New Bay for the Arc immediately after his win in the Prix Niel. He's in the right hands, has had a perfect French 3yo prep for the race and he pretty much confirmed he'll stay the trip as well. No question in my mind Fabre has won the big race with two or three inferior animals than his Jockey-Club winner but those creatures didn't have Treve to deal with. She was imperious in winning the Vermeille but it has to be said she hasn't had to beat a top class rival since Orfevre in 2013 and although that may well be clutching at stores I'm happy to have a couple against her given her very short odds now.

    I've already mentioned how impressed I was with Emotionless at Doncaster and although Air Force Blue was also very taking at the Curragh on Sunday I much prefer the Godolphin colt long term and I'm hoping to have a nice tank on him by May. The sky's the limit with this horse who is a gorgeous looking horse. He'll fill his frame nicely over the winter.

    In my last ante-post update I neglected to mention taking 33s about the Fabre trained Vadamos for the Champion Stakes in October. He was impressive in winning a Group 2 in Germany a week or so and although I freely admit not knowing much about what that form amounts to I was surprised to see such big odds available about him for Ascot given how effusive his trainer was about him and also how likely the race is to cut up.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Jack Hobbs £15w @ 10/1
New Bay £15w @ 6/1

Champion Stakes:
Vadamos £10w @ 33/1

--
Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £10w @ 33/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £15w @ 86/10

--
2000 Guineas:
Emotionless £20w @ 12/1


13/09/2015

The Curragh & Longchamp - 13th Sept

    After a quiet start to the weekend from a punting point of view I have an explosion of bets today and I could badly do with a winner. Before I detail them a word about yesterday's action. Obviously most of the headlines surround the controversial bumping and booring in the St Leger and the Irish Champion but what stood out to me was the performance of Emotionless in the Champagne Stakes. He won on the bridle from a progressive type in second, the form stacks up nicely and I was very surprised to see double figures available about the horse for next year's 2000 Guineas immediately after the race. I was happy to snap up those prices.

    Anyway, onto today. The market for the Irish St Leger looks all wrong to me. The Ballydoyle colt heading it looks incredibly short. Yes, he was impressive last time out but the horse he beat that day hasn't any form for the last two years and it's plain he owes his position in the market purely down to where he's trained. The ground doesn't look soft enough at this trip for Forgotten Rules and Brown Panther is coming back from injury. Luca Cumani is having a fine season and Second Step looks way overpriced for this at around 8/1. I took 10s yesterday and have topped up since. His run behind Big Orange in the Princess of Wales's Stakes at the July meeting was franked by the winner last time out (Second Step carried a penalty that day) and he won nicely next time out in Germany. Like I said yesterday his pedigree suggests he'll improve for this trip and I expect a big run.

    Esoterique has been a revelation this season but she looks a false favourite for the Prix du Moulin. The ground today is completely different from the churned up mess the Marois was run on and a couple of her beaten rivals that day, Territories and Karakontie, look value picks here. The former's best form is all on decent ground and the latter was off the track for eight months prior to that comeback run at Deauville. Yes you have to take it on trust that he's the same horse he was last year but at 10/1 it's worth the risk.

    Treve should win the Vermeille and she's not lightly opposed but Sea Calisi was the best horse in the Yorkshire Oaks, she was disadvantaged by her position in the race relative to the conditions prevailing at York and the way the race was run and at 11/1 today she rates a decent each way bet.

EDIT: 11:40am

I've sort of messed up. Just found out that Longchamp had 25mm of rain overnight making the ground very soft. This flat season has been hit so horribly from a weather point of view. Err, my Territories bet looks a waste, Karakontie won't mind the ground too much and I'm not sure about Sea Calisi. I've added Ribbons at 5/1 in the Blandford Stakes at the Curragh. She was disappointing last time out but her form was at a decent level before then and there must be a good chance Tapestry will need this. I'm so mad I didn't check the weather in France. Poor form.

Blandford Stakes:
Ribbons £40w @ 5/1 (won)

Irish St Leger:
Second Step £40w @ 88/10 (lost)

Prix Vermeille:
Sea Calisi £20ew @ 11/1 (3rd)

Prix du Moulin
Karakontie £15ew @ 10/1 (lost)
Territories £25w @ 4/1 (nr)

Prix du Moulin/National Stakes:
Karakontie (lost) Air Force Blue £10 dbl @ 10/1 & 11/8

(-482.82)



12/09/2015

Leger/Irish Champions Weekend

    No bets today, nothing appeals in the St Leger and whilst the Champion Stakes over at Leopardstown looks mouth watering rain means there are bound to be some high profile non-runners.

    I've taken a couple of big prices about horses in the Irish Leger and Prix du Moulin tomorrow however. In the former Second Step is overpriced at 10/1. This Cumani charge looks on the upgrade and his pedigree (by Dalakhani out of a Sadlers Wells mare) suggests he will improve further for this step up in trip. At Longchamp I've take the same odds about Karakontie. Off the track eight months after his Breeder's Cup victory his comeback run on horrible ground in the Marois at Deauville was pretty much as good as could be expected and 10/1 really under estimates his chance in this.

    I'll preview these races in more detail tomorrow.

Irish St Leger:
Second Step £15w @ 10/1

Prix du Moulin:
Karakontie £15ew @ 10/1

Prix du Moulin/National Stakes:
Karakontie/Air Force Blue £10 dbl @ 10/1 & 11/8

10/09/2015

Doncaster - 10th Sept

    This has to be a quick one as I leave for work at half nine. Fadhayyil is the form filly in the Sceptre Stakes today and she was rightfully trading at 7/2 last night. Ladbrokes offer 5/1 this morning however with great each way terms (1/4 the odds 4 places) and she has to be backed at that price with such a good safety net. Is it 5/1 she runs to form? No. If she runs to form will four fillies beat her? I seriously doubt it.

Sceptre Stakes:
Fadhayyil £20ew @ 5/1 (4th)

(-656.83)

08/09/2015

Doncaster - 9th Sept

    I have a couple of tracker horses running tomorrow and if memory serves it will be the first time I've ever had a couple running in the same race. The contest in question is a 7f handicap tomorrow at Doncaster. Heartbreak Hero has already made an appearance on this blog, I backed him last time out at Goodwood in a race where he lost a couple of lengths at the start before getting into contention. He looked like featuring but that effort to get on terms told on him and he faded into sixth. If this horse can just start a race with a level break I think there's a win somewhere for him and I hope it's tomorrow. He was behind one of his rivals tomorrow (Sakhee's Return) at York the time before that but covered much more ground than the winner that day and is a likelier winner of this. Akeed Champion went into my tracker when he beat yet another of my horses, Darrell Rivers, In a handicap at Newmarket a few weeks ago. In a ten runner event with the stalls stand side he was drawn widest of all and was taken to the inside from the off but eventually finished back on the outside as he was asked to go wide again by his jockey, only just scoring. He's trained by Fahey and has lots of scope but I prefer Heartbreak Hero on price grounds.

Frank Whittle Partnership Handicap:
Heartbreak Hero £40w @ 7/1 (lost)
Akeed Champion £30w @ 3/1 (lost)

(-661.83)

04/09/2015

Haydock - 5th Sept

    Haydock is my local track and I'll be in attendance tomorrow for their best card of the summer. I've done my money on Limato in the Sprint Cup and the race does look open, the sort of sprint where any result wouldn't be that much of a surprise. That being said I do like the chances of Adaay at 7/1 and his form is very much tied in with Limato. His one poor run this season was on very fast ground in the Commonwealth Cup so take that effort out of his form profile and you have a progressive, consistent animal. I've backed Gordon Lord Byron in this the last two years but I have the same vibes about him that I had about Sole Power before the King's Stand, I just think he's on the decline now. The rest of the field look look quite ordinary to me but ordinary horses win these kind of Group 1's, I just hope Adaay has the class I think he has.

    Oasis Fantasy runs in the Old Borough Cup earlier on in the card and he's been my cliff horse this season. I maintain though that this 1m6f trip is his optimum though and I can't resist giving him one more chance. The last time he ran over this distance he was not really put in the race at all by a jockey who was retiring that week and who, it seemed to me, could not be arsed. Dettori was on at York last time out and was more positive, but he was just outstayed over two miles that day. I think he's a solid each way bet as he's been very consistent all year.

Old Borough Cup:
Oasis Fantasy £20ew @ 12/1 (lost)

Sprint Cup:
Adaay £35w @ 7/1 (lost)
Limato NR £10

(-591.83)

03/09/2015

Haydock - 4th Sept

    Captain Bob went into my tracker when he was second in a decent handicap at York in mid July. He was held up that day and had to be switched before rattling home behind a nice type who franked the form next time out by hitting the frame in a listed race during the Ebor meeting. I backed Captain Bob in his next start at Newbury and he was well backed but the tactics were strange that day - he led almost from the off before weakening in the last furlong. He's in the 4.10 at Haydock tomorrow and I would expect him to be held again this time given that the field is bigger and there are at least two front runners amongst his opponents. I think he's a fair bet at 8/1.

Befred Handicap:
Captain Bob £40w @ 8/1 (lost)

(-506.83)

31/08/2015

Hamilton - 1st Sept

    There was a lot to like about Darrell Rivers run on the July course last month, her second attempt at 7f having been campaigned exclusively at 6 prior to her start at Thirsk five days earlier. On both these starts she has been held up before finishing well, placed on both occasions. I backed her at Newmarket as she went into my tracker after Thirsk and it take a couple of nice types to beat her, the winner especially. She runs at Hamilton tomorrow in a fillies only race off bottom weight (a 2lb hike for her run in Suffolk looks fair) and I'd be mad keen on her if it wasn't for the fact that she's been stepped up to an extended mile this time. Hamilton isn't that stiff but there is a steady rise to the line and stamina could well be an issue. Having said that she was motoring in the last half furlong on the July course and 8/1 looks very fair in not as good a race - I've gone each way though with that worry about the trip.

EBF Stallions Scottish Premier Fillies' Handicap:
Darrell Rivers £20ew @ 8/1 (3rd)

(-466.83)

30/08/2015

Goodwood 30th Aug / Ante-Post

    I've taken a bit of the 8/1 about Royal Toast in the 3.05 at Goodwood later this afternoon. He's a tentative tracker horse, one I hummed and hawed about including on my list, but I did like the way he finished his race at Sandown just over a week ago after being bustled up virtually from the get go. My first thought was they went too fast that day and he was racing past beaten horses but re-watching it the pace setter(s) really didn't go that quick. He's a biggish horse who won't mind the ground today and ultimately in a 6 runner event he's worth a go at the price.

    Looking ahead to Haydock next week the ground is currently good and the BBC weather forecast doesn't have a lot of rain falling in the area so I'm taking a chance that Limato might line up in the Sprint Cup next Saturday. It looks a very open race and if we can have firm in the going description he'll be very competitive.

Harwoods Group Stakes:
Royal Toast £30w @ 9/1 bog (won)

(-484.63)



Sprint Cup:
Limato £10w @ 12/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Jack Hobbs £15w @ 10/1

--
Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £10w @ 33/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £15w @ 86/10

28/08/2015

Windsor - 29th Aug

    I'm running out time in terms of trying to make a profit this flat season but I am in front with my tracker horses and my one bet tomorrow is on one who has been on that list since May. At that time Critical Risk was trained by Brian Meehan and his win (actually dead heated) at Sandown that month was notable in that he lost a couple of lengths as the stalls opened and had to come wide and late in order to challenge so whilst a 6lb hike for such a small margin of success seems excessive on the face of it, his dawdling suggests the race went anything but his way and I strongly fancy him tomorrow. Another plus is that he has moved to Luca Cumani, one of my favourite trainer of handicappers.

EDIT: 19:34
    It's very, very rare for me to bet after I've posted my blog thoughts for the day but I did get involved this evening in the August Stakes at Windsor. I wasn't steaming (I think) after Critical Risk's defeat but after Fascinating Rock got turned over in the Winter Hill I think the layers got a bit greedy and Gospel Choir touched 3.3 on the machine just before the off half an hour later. I had to tuck in at that price, I made him a 6/4 poke. He lost, but I'm posting the bet as I want my P/L to be as accurate as possible.


World Famous Genting Casinos Handicap:
Critical Risk £50w @ 2/1 (2nd)

August Stakes:
Gospel Choir £40w @ 23/10 (2nd)

(-754.63)

23/08/2015

Deauville - 23rd Aug

    I was disappointed with the tactics employed on Top Notch Tonto in the Stensall Stakes yesterday. I mentioned in my post the previous day that I was concerned about Mizzou's tendency to be held up in his races and that that wasn't the way to go at York this week but that I also felt his trainer was shrewd enough to adapt. This happened and the horse was just beaten by a horse I have to admit I hadn't considered as a danger. Anyway, no such shrewdness was evident in Brian Ellison's mind.

    The form of the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh in June has worked out really well with Legatissimo and Secret Gesture "winning" Group 1 races recently and I like the chances of the third in that race, Ribbons, in the Prix Jean Romanet tomorrow. She ran a cracking race on ground that wouldn't have been ideal for her and with soft conditions later today I think she'll be hard to beat. It bares relating that she was held up that day at the Curragh in a race where the winner enjoyed the run of the race and Dettori had to come late and wide. She won the Romanet last year and although it looks a stronger renewal this time around I think 4/1 is very fair. I've never been that convinced by the level of Avenir Certain's form and although We Are beat the selection at Longchamp back in the Autumn that was in a race run on good ground and Ribbons is notably better when she can get her toe in.

Prix Jean Romanet:
Ribbons £50w @ 4/1 (lost)

(-664.63)

21/08/2015

York - 22nd Aug

    Just the one bet tomorrow with Oasis Fantasy not making the Ebor line-up and it's on Top Notch Tonto in the opener. Unusually for a sort of public horse he seems overpriced for this Group 3 event. His last run was only his second over tomorrow's trip and he ran really well in splitting Tulius and Prince Gibraltar in the York Stakes over course and distance. I reckon he rates a bit better than the bare form of that race as he was detached by two or three lengths at one point. Tomorrow's field seems mainly made up of handicappers stepping up in class or milers stepping up in trip (both on some counts) and the selection is pretty much the only one proven on both class and distance grounds. It's a competitive race and one or two of his rivals might relish this different test but at 7/1 I'm prepared to take a chance that Top Notch Tonto (who is a model of consistency) can hold them off.

Strensall Stakes:
Top Notch Tonto £45w @ 7/1 (lost)

Ebor Handicap:
Oasis Fantasy NR £30

(-614.63)

20/08/2015

York - 21st Aug

    Today hurt quite a bit, Sea Calisi ran an absolute smasher in the Yorkshire Oaks but being held up cost her the race behind the pace chasing Pleascach and the front running Covert Love. My Nap tomorrow is also a hold up horse which worries me quite a bit. I punted Mizzou in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot and considering he didn't settle that well actually ran quite well to be beaten a little less than four lengths (he also covered more ground than the horses in front of him that day after having to be pulled wide to challenge.) He hasn't run since that day whereas a lot of his opponents in the Lonsdale Cup took in Goodwood or even ran in the King George in July. I fancy him quite strongly, he's still open to improvement and will get a faster pace tomorrow over this shorter trip. My one concern is is his hold up racing style and for that reason part of my stake is each way. I hope Cumani has different tactics in mind, he's shrewd enough of a trainer to be able to adapt.

    I've also re-acquainted myself with another Royal Ascot loser, Muthmir in the Nunthorpe. This horse would be around 7/2 for this without Acapulco in the race and although I fear the 2yo greatly given the ridiculous wfa here I'm happy to take 6/1 with the money back special concession for finishing second and good each way terms (1/4 and four places.) Muthmir ran a very nice race at Goodwood last time out under a penalty and has won at the track. Mange All was disappointing today for his trainer but Haggas is in rampant form with his Group horses.

Lonsdale Cup:
Mizzou £15ew @ 6/1 and £20w @ 62/10 (2nd)

Nunthorpe Stakes:
Muthmir £15ew @ 6/1 and £25w @ 6/1 (lost)

(-539.63)

19/08/2015

York - 20th Aug

    I must admit Golden Horn being bested by a 50/1 shot in today's Juddmonte was very amusing to me, and I was delighted to see David Elsworth back in the Group 1 winners enclosure. When I first got into racing back in the late 1980s he was very much "the man" with top class horses over jumps and the flat - Desert Orchid and In the Groove in particular standing out.

    Francois Doumen hasn't quite reached the heights on the level after such notable successes with his National Hunt charges back in the day but he has a nice filly in Sea Calisi who runs in the Yorkshire Oaks tomorrow. I'm always a sucker for an overlooked foreign runner in a Group 1 so I sent a bit of time watching her videos on Equidia the other day and was impressed enough to take a bit of an interest at 14/1 before topping up at declaration time when she opened at 12s. She's a nice moving filly with a game attitude and it's a shame Katinya ran below form against Jazzy Top in the Prix de la Nonette the other day at Deauville as we would have had some reliable collateral form then but I think the conditions tomorrow will suit her and she looks overpriced to me. I fear Covert Love naturally, she's a filly with very little not to like about her, but the rest of the field look exposed or average at best at this level and I'm happy to take a punt at the price I have.

    My other bet is on an old favourite, Mange All in the big handicap over a mile. He's not run since March and hasn't won since the previous July, but his form from the the late Summer/Autumn period of last year has been boosted no end this season by the likes of GM Hopkins and The Corsican. His trainer is in excellent form as well and although the gap in races is a worry this event has nice price money attached and I'm hoping Haggas has him straight. If not I've taken some each way insurance (fingers crossed he doesn't finish fourth like Oasis Fantasy today - the two non runners in his race stung big time.)

Clipper Logistics Stakes (Handicap):
Mange All £20ew @ 8/1 (lost)

Yorkshire Oaks:
Sea Calisi £15w @ 14/1 and £15ew @ 12/1 (3rd)

(-467.63)