Flat Postscript - Jumps Thoughts

    The first thing to say about my flat season is the final profit/loss figure is disappointing but weirdly I consider the last six months to have been a success, mainly with regard to the future and things I will put in place next season. Over the years my most profitable kind of bet has been long priced handicappers in big ante-post events like the Cambridgeshire, the Hunt Cup and the Northumberland Plate. I have pics of my best winners all over my flat and these type winners - Bronze Angel, Angel Gabrial, Caribbean Monarch, Nice One Clare and Beachamp Pilot - dominate. This season though a number of the tracker horses I found during the year ended up going in at 8/1+ in really sort of humdrum races - I had a 14/1 shot go in at Doncaster on the opening race of their card on Stewards Cup day. This excites me as I don't need to rely on finding sorts for big ante-post races if they crop up in common or garden events during a typical year and so in future I really will be placing added importance (meaning more money staked) on horses that fall into this category - and I'll be able to afford this by placing a budget on shorter priced fancies. These type bets - less than 4/1 - really haven't been that profitable for me over the years and so I'm going to get away from them. It's so important to analysis one's performance in betting and budgeting bets at longer prices on group races, something I started last season, has really worked well - losses in that sphere have been vastly reduced the last two seasons.

    Anyway on to the Jumps. Like most serious punters this tends to revolve around those magical four days in March at Cheltenham and although I'll be active during the winter I don't as much at this time of year as during the height of summer and I'm not looking for tracker types apart from Nick Williams inmates that I always look out for. The last couple of Festivals have been disappointing and I put this mainly down to being too free and easy with my ante-post bets. I simply have too many of them and the non-runner count has been crippling last season and the one before. Having said that four of the last six years I have been on a horse before the end of November at double figures that has ended up winning the following March. Sizing Europe I initially backed for his Arkle during the previous October at 20/1 - Sprinter Sacre I backed for his not long after the 2011 Festival at 12s, Jezki I punted for his Champion Hurdle at 20/1 not long after his Supreme third and last year I backed Uxizandre for the Ryanair well before Christmas at 14s. Sadly the last two named I went off big style and didn't top up on. So I want a smaller band of backed horses but with more on and with a nod to bigger prices - the chance of a NR must be factored in more and so at much less than 10/1 I ain't interested - unless it's Don Poli lol.

    This entry is getting a bit too long so I'll finish with a rundown of my current Cheltenham fancies.

Faugheen will be incredibly hard to beat in the Champion Hurdle but there was a lot of like about Peace and Co's Triumph win on unsuitably slow ground. I think the old course will suit him more and with better ground almost guaranteed on the Tuesday I think he'll give the champ something to think about - I'm just hoping for a decent sized field and a fast pace. Whisper ran well enough in last year's World Hurdle despite no prep whatsoever and beat the winner when they met again at Aintree. With thoughts of novice chasing out the window he should have a far smoother prep this season and double figure quotes even at this stage are very fair. Apache Stronghold may just about be my favourite chaser in trainer and he rates better than the bare result of the JLT last March. Carberry went for him far earlier than he would have done normally that day to try and keep tabs on Vautour and he was crazy big for the Ryanair at 33/1 a few weeks ago, topped up since. Noel Meade said he wasn't keen to run him over 3m+ again after the horse got beaten by Don Poli last Christmas so I doubt he'll be aimed at the Gold Cup - his price looks a complete rick to me - have to hope Vautour goes for the longer race however. As for the blue ribband itself, it looks mouth watering at this stage and at the prices I like Don Poli and Holywell. The former looks all over a staying chaser of the highest class and he has lengthened from around 6/1 since his flop at Punchestown. Holywell ran a cracker behind Coneygree considering the ground was completely against him last March and I glady took some 44 on Betfair about him a week or so ago. No doubt I'll be posting more about these races as the months pass. 

Champion Hurdle:

Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:

Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £14w @ 31/1

Gold Cup:

Don Poli £20w @ 82/10

Holywell £5w @ 43/1