Ascot - 17th Oct

    Let's get straight into it, I have a fair few wagers today. In the first I backed Agent Murphy earlier in the week expecting him to shorten from the 6/1 I took. I suppose it's such a big day that the market for all these races is quite strong and he remains at that price today. I've topped up and despite a largish field I don't think this is competitive as some of the other contests on the card and ultimately 6/1 about the best horse in the race is a good bet - it's the same price he started at in the Irish Leger, a race that had way more depth to it from a quality standpoint. He stayed on well at The Curragh suggesting two miles is ok and I'm as confident as I can be about a horse in my wheelhouse (bets in conditions events on horses priced between 4 and 8/1 is one of my most profitable betting angles) in a year where I've not done as well as in the past on those type bets.

    Sea Calisi is another of those kind of bets and although her tendency to get behind in her races is a concern given the short straight today I think she's overpriced at 7/1. She was the best horse in the Yorkshire Oaks and is fresher than Covert Love who just beat her that day so a point and half difference between the two is unjustified - I would strongly argue that the selection should be shorter than Hugo Palmer's filly in the betting. Simple Verse is also shorter than Sea Calisi, but that filly has something more than Leger boats to beat today and is easily the worst value in the race. I do fear Candarliya who heads the market as I type but there was little between the two French contenders in the Vermeille and Sea Calisi missing Longchamp (Candarliya took in a race on the Saturday) is a plus in her favour.

    I was thinking of backing Kodi Bear for the QEII but the will he/won't he clusterfuck surrounding the participation of Gleneagles and possibility of beefy rule 4's puts me off so I'm leaving the race alone. This is a shame as I want to be against Solow who isn't as far ahead of Kodi Bear and Territories as the market suggests.

    My ante-post position on Vadamos is my strongest of the day. I took 33s after reading the master trainer's comments about him after his win in Germany at the beginning of September and the topping up I've done since has left me with an average 16/1 about a 7/1 poke. Nice. There's not much I can say about this colt's form because I don't really know it, but Fabre has been good to me over the years and I trust him more than any other trainer. Naturally my possie on his horse means I'm beating the book on this race all ends up so I've added Found at 9/2. I don't normally like her trainer's 3yos this time of year as he rarely gives them much of a break (Gleneagles excepted I guess) but this filly seems tough and genuine and her form behind Golden Horn isn't that far behind Jack Hobbs and I think a stiff 10f and the short straight will suit her more than it will the favourite. At his type of price (6/4) I'd want everything in favour today and it simply is not. He's very opposable.

Long Distance Cup:
Agent Murphy £60w @ 6/1 (lost)

Fillies' & Mares:

Sea Calisi £50w @ 7/1 (lost)

Champion Stakes:

Vadamos £35w @ 16/1 (lost)

Found £40w @ 9/2 (2nd)

Free Eagle NR £10

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