Arc Day

    What a fantastic card we have in Paris today, Group 1 races up the ying yang and I've had quite a few bets.

    I'll start with the big race itself. Treve is a horse I don't take on lightly but there are enough chinks to think she's worth opposing at a very short price. The Arc traditionally favours 3yos who have a mid summer break after taking in a classic or two. I believe in the past what you had was these colts and fillies rested up in their stables whilst the older horses were battling it out in all aged events, look at the season Montjeu had when he was four compared to his Arc winning campaign, he didn't take the King George in at three. This isn't really a factor with Treve as they have had the Arc in mind all year naturally. However I also feel the WFA favours the 3yos. Now normally when punters talk about weight concessions in condition events I mentally switch off, the WFA scale is meant to bring horses of different aged groups together, it is not a handicap. But sometimes this scale is over generous - A 3yo colt gets 8lbs from an older horse in the Arc, they get 11lbs from them in the Eclipse in early July and 8lbs also in the Sussex Stakes in early August. I actually think the scale for the two races in England is pretty much spot on taking the time of year and the race distance into account. The Arc comes two months after the Sussex and yes it is over further but the scale should have still dropped by October. I think 5, maybe 6lbs would be more in line. Anyway, last year Treve was imperious in defending her title, she beat Flintshire into second and filling the frame were two 3yos - Taghrooda and Kingston Hill. Both very good animals but neither had had a typical Arc type prep and it has to be said the race did go much more Treve's way than these two - both were badly drawn. So I feel she is vulnerable to a high class 3yo who has had a traditional campaign and who is well drawn - step forward New Bay. He's trained by the master, would be a dual classic winner but for a chronic draw in the Poulains, and is primed to the minute for this in what looks pretty much a two horse race. I'm on ante-post and have taken 11/2 this morning at Powers with a special money back concession - if he's second to the SP fav I get my stake back as a freebie. I have sort of dismissed Golden Horn but he's been active all summer and is drawn wide. I can't have him at all.

    Onto the rest of the card. I've got involved in Antonoe in the Marcel Boussac because Ballydoyle is a terrible looking favourite for the race. She's relatively exposed and seems pretty much priced up on her name. Pascal Bary's filly looks full of promise and should be clear market leader.

    I posted my thoughts on the l'Opera a few days back, the race has cut up since and We Are looks a solid bet now. I've topped up since final decs and she looks value in not as competitive a race as it once looked.

    Finally we come to the Foret. I'm a big fan of Limato but all his good form is on a straight track and a widish looking draw round a bend on this course is far from ideal for him. Therefore he must be taken on at the price (he's 7/4). I backed Make Believe at the Royal Meeting in the mistaken belief that Gleneagles (remember him?) was worth taking on. He ran like a drain and by all accounts is a delicate horse to train, but if we give him a pass for that effort (and some horses do not like Ascot, it's a bit like York in that regard) then 6/1ish is worth a go (I did get some 7s on Friday) 

Prix Marcel Boussac:

Antonoe £40w @ 15/8 (lost)

Prix de l'Opera:

Avenir Certain NR £10

We Are £15ew @ 9/1 and £15w @ 15/2 (3rd)

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:

Jack Hobbs NR £15

New Bay £30w @ 575/100 and £25w @ 11/2 (3rd)

Prix de la Foret:

Make Believe £40w @ 66/10 (won)

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