End of Year Thoughts

Overall I've had a good year's punting and the racing has been excellent. I particulary enjoyed my trips to Aintree in April, Newbury in February and Sandown just this month. It was my first visit to the two southern  tracks but I've been going to Liverpool to watch racing for over twenty years as you can see from the Race card below and the course is just so much better than it was back in the day.

This time last year I was in a hole during that Jumps campaign but largely turned it around because of a good Festival. I've since had a profitable summer on the level and am well up for this Jumps season and I really would like to up the staking but other things in my life haven't run as smooth. I've had a four figure dental bill recently that dented the old bankroll but somewhat but another good Cheltenham in March should result in me upping the bet level in the Summer.

Speaking of the Festival, things haven't been running smooth in the ante-post dept recently but there will be opportunities the closer we get to March and of course during the meeting. There are a few market leaders I think will be well worth taking on and I remain confident of coming out of the four days in front.


Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Arvika Ligeonniere £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Grandouet £25w @10/1

Neptune:
Clondaw Kaempfer £25w @ 13/1

RSA:
Our Father £10w @ 14/1
Boston Bob £25w @ 10/1

Jewson:
Oscars Well £20w @ 16/1

Ryanair:
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 10/1

Albert Bartlett:
Coneygree £15w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 8/1

Non Runners - Total of £110 lost

Doubles:

Grandouet (Champion Hurdle) and Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and Flemenstar (Gold Cup) £10 @ 8/1 and 7/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 10/1 and 14/1

Captain Conan (Jewson) and Silviniaco Conti (Gold Cup) £10 @ 6/1 and 9/1

Coneygree (AB) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 12/1 and 14/1

Newbury - 29th Dec

Initially I was devastated with Flemenstar's defeat in the Lexus yesterday but watching the race multiple times since has me thinking more positive about the horse. No, he probably won't be aimed at the Gold Cup this season but I think he was too heavily restrained yesterday and a return to his normal tactics of bowling along in front will help him see off inferior rivals in future before they have a chance of staying on past him. His superior jumping and travelling ability have to be utilised better. I was also very impressed with the way Sir Des Champs stayed on after clouting a few fences and think he is a big danger in the Gold Cup as he surely will jump better at Cheltenham where he was faultless in the Jewson last March.

My ante-post book for the Festival is looking a bit ropey now and today Clondaw Kaempfer runs in the Challow at Newbury. This is a horse who has won twice on deep ground this season and has looked impressive in doing so despite the impression his running action gives that decent ground will suit him more than the mud - he doesn't pick his legs up that high and almost floats over the ground. His sire gets plenty of good ground horses as well. Unfortunately the going at Newbury is heavy and this contest today is a step up in class as well so I wasn't thinking he'd be a bet under these conditions but a lot of support has come in for the Jonjo O'Neill trained Taquin du Seull who has good form on deep ground over this sort of trip. This support has resulted in Clondaw drifting from an initial sort of 6/4,7/4 to the 23/10 I've taken on Betfair. I've also put a small IR lay in at a short price as if my selection does get beat it will probably be by being slightly outstayed in these stamina sapping conditions.

Challow Novice Hurdle:
Clondaw Kaempfer £60w @ 23/10 and an IR lay request of £20 @ 5/4 placed. (lost)

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Leopardstown - 28th Dec

The Lexus Chase at Leopardstown today looks the highest quality race run during the Christmas period with Flemenstar taking on Sir Des Champs again with Tidal Bay, Pandorama and Hidden Cyclone also in attendance. I've been in the Flemenstar for the Gold Cup camp since his effortless romp at Fairyhouse in April where he showed his effectiveness on decent ground. Sir Des Champs did have excuses in their first meeting in the John Durkan at Punchestown but the way Andrew Lynch put two lengths between the two horses just by shaking the reigns on Flemenstar as they entered the straight suggests to me that there is a gap in ability between the two animals and it's just a case of whether running over further here today and at Cheltenham in March will allow the Mullins horse to close the gap. I don't think it will.

Tidal Bay's participation will give us a form tie-in with Gold Cup favourite Bob's Worth although the race today is over shorter and that won't suit the Nicholls creature even though the soft ground will. Tidal Bay gave weight to Bob's Worth in the Hennessy and was closing in the latter part of the race.

Flemenstar is bred to stay 3m+ and I expect a good performance today. I gladly took 2/1 when Betfair opened a market on the race.

Lexus Chase:
Flemenstar £40w @ 2/1 (lost)

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Kempton - 27th Dec

Nick Williams has a couple of his stable stars out today at the London track and whilst I think For Non Stop will go well he's a bit short considering he wasn't foot perfect on deep ground last time out and I prefer the claims of Swincombe Flame in the Mares hurdle. She won the Lanzarote at this track last season and this won't be anywhere near as competitive. Like Reve de Sivola I reckon she'll love a return to hurdles after not enjoying fences.
Mares Handicap Hurdle:
Swincombe Flame £50w @ 9/2 (lost)

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Boxing Day

Traditionally Boxing Day is one of the biggest racing days of the season and we have an excellent card at Kempton as usual and a very interesting novice chase at Leopardstown as well.

My ante post selections all miss the King George and I'm not getting involved on the day. I think Long Run will probably win with the emphasis firmly on stamina given the underfoot conditions but he isn't a price. I like Cue Card, Captain Chris and For Non Stop as horses but don't think any of them will live heavy going.

Dynaste is favourite for the Feltham and he's had a marvellous start to his chasing career but imo he's a terrible price for the RSA at present and I hope he wins well tomorrow and shortens up again. I have recently added Boston Bob to my ante-post Cheltenham portfolio as I think the layers have over-reacted to his rather ordinary chasing bow the other week.

Simonsig was most impressive late last week in his first outing over fences and he probably deserves to be favourite for the Arkle but Arvika Ligeonniere and Oscars Well clash tomorrow in Ireland and I think the former in particular will be a massive danger to Nicky Henderson's star grey if they both make it to the Festival. Arvika attacks his fences with some vigour and I took initial 10/1 quotes about him after his last race because he looked an ideal type for the Arkle. Oscars Well on the other hand looks the type for the Jewson over further, particulary on better ground.

King George:
Al Ferof £30w @ 10/1 (NR)
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 8/1 (NR)
Sizing Europe Leg 1 of a £10dbl (NR)

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Holiday Bets

Lots of rain around at the moment and the ground will be very soft at least for tomorrow's card at Ascot and with that in mind I'm turning to an old friend in Reve de Sivola for the Long Walk Hurdle. With Big Buck's on the sidelines now the division he dominated for so long is wide open and I think the Nick Williams horse is capable of making his mark. He was a top class staying novice hurdler with a victory in the Challow and a good effort behind Peddlers Cross in the Neptune back in 2009/10 and after not taking that well to fences in the two seasons since (which included a long time off with a tendon injury) he is back over timber and looked decent enough behind Big Buck's first time out at Newbury where after being outpaced initially he stayed on well albeit a fair way behind the winner. Reve's stamina comes into play far more over hurdles than it ever did over fences because he was never comfortable over the larger obstacles and expended too much energy getting from one side to the other. His Challow victory was on heavy ground (with Finian's Rainbow amongst his victims) and I think he's worth a bet at 5s tomorrow. Favourite Smad Place is respected but his best form is not on ground as soft as he'll encounter tomorrow.
With Al Ferof out of the King George and the prospect of deep ground looking certain at Kempton on Boxing Day I'm pretty much resigned to my fate in the race but we'll have to see. I think Long Run will likely win now but he's not a bet at under 3/1. I'm hoping to gain compensation in the Lexus at Leopardstown where I managed to get 2/1 on Flemenstar on the machine a few days ago. Sprinter Sacre aside he's the most exciting chaser in training and I expect him to take this step up to three miles in his stride.
Long Walk Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola £50w @ 5/1 (won)

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King George:
Al Ferof £30w @ 10/1
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 8/1
Lexus Chase:
Flemenstar £40w @ 2/1

Ante-Post Carnage

No other word for the title of this post. Very sad news today about Al Ferof and Big Buck's missing the rest of the season. Put that together with Fingal Bay's injury and suddenly my ante-post book looks a lot worse than it did last week. I'm gutted about Al Ferof especially, he was most impressive in the Paddy Power last month and that form was boosted by Walkon on Saturday. I was very confident of a big run in King George and also had a huge price about him for the Gold Cup for small money.

These things happen in ante-post land though and you just have to get on with it. The only bit of good news was the excellent run by Grandouet in the International Hurdle. After a year on the sidelines he gave weight to a race fit Zarkandar on ground softer than ideal for him at Cheltenham and wasn't too far off winning the race. He has a big chance in the Champion Hurdle - hopefully he'll get there.



King George:
Al Ferof £30w @ 10/1 (NR)
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 8/1

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Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Arvika Ligeonniere £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Grandouet £20w @11/1

Neptune:
Clondaw Kaempfer £25w @ 13/1

RSA:
Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Jewson:
Oscars Well £15w @ 16/1

Ryanair:
Finian's Rainbow £10w @ 10/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1

Non Runners - Total of £110 lost

Doubles:
Sizing Europe (King George) and Clandaw Kaempfer (Neptune) £10 @ 8/1 and 12/1

Grandouet (Champion Hurdle) and Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and Flemenstar (Gold Cup) £10 @ 8/1 and 7/1

Ante-Post Update

What a weekend. Saturday was my first visit to Sandown and I had a really great time. A fantastic course with great viewing, a nice paddock and they even had a bar that sold Real Ale (please note Aintree.) Speaking of the paddock, that's where I took the shot of Sprinter Sacre from just before his breathless Tingle Creek victory. I'd like to go to as many courses as I can in the future and I have visited fourteen now in England and Ireland but I will return to Sandown again one day.

Almost as impressive as Sprinter Sacre was Flemenstar in the John Durkan at Punchestown on Sunday. I've been backing this horse for the Gold Cup since his win at Fairyhouse in the spring. He's never run in a big field and hasn't raced outside Ireland, all things that kept his price in double figures until recently, but he was so dominant on Sunday against a crack opponent in Sir Des Champs. The Mullins horse was having his first run of the season and would have appreciated better ground and a greater test of stamina, but as they entered the straight Davy Russell was hard at it on the runner-up keeping tabs and Lynch just shook the reigns on his mount and Flemenstar went two lengths clear almost instantaneously. Forget all the excuses, that was just a demonstration of a better horse in action. He jumps like a stag and his sire's best horses are all three miles plus chasers. I can't wait for the Lexus now.

Lastly, I topped up on Fingal Bay for the RSA despite his awful run at Exeter on Friday. He plainly does not like going right handed but his form behind Dynaste at Cheltenham has been boosted and he has yet to be tested under what I think are his optimum conditions - three miles plus in a race run at a decent clip.

King George:
Al Ferof £30w @ 10/1
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 8/1

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Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Arvika Ligeonniere £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
Grandouet £15w @12/1

Neptune:
Clondaw Kaempfer £25w @ 13/1

RSA:
Fingal Bay £60w @ 13/1
Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Jewson:
Oscars Well £15w @ 16/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Al Ferof £5w @ 54/1

Doubles:
Sizing Europe (King George) and Clandaw Kaempfer (Neptune) £10 @ 8/1 and 12/1

Grandouet (Champion Hurdle) and Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and Flemenstar (Gold Cup) £10 @ 8/1 and 7/1

Al Ferof (Ryanair) and Flemenstar (Gold Cup) £10 @ 8/1 and 6/1

Sandown and Aintree - 8th Dec

I'm writing my thoughts and bets for Saturday's action earlier than usual because I am at work from two and it's pretty much straight to bed afterwards as I'm on the 0658 to Euston in the morning. I've never been racing in London before so am very much looking forward to it. It's not the best card in the world for betting to be honest, especially with Overturn missing from the big novice chase. I think he had the beating of Captain Conan in the Henry VIII and was going to back him accordingly. The Tingle Creek is a mouth watering affair featuring Sprinter Sacre and Sanctuaire and I'm firmly in the Arkle winners camp. At around 4/9 he's not a betting proposition and the only possible bet might be Kumbeshwar in the without the favourite  market on course. It's common enough for these big one on one match up's to never quite play out as one imagines and I can see Sanctuaire making an error or two when push comes to shove and the Alan King horse might be able to take advantage. Let's not forget that Al Ferof made a huge mistake four out in the Arkle when Sprinter Sacre loomed on his outside. He's an intimidating presence. Kumbeshwar is a front runner like Sanctuaire but I imagine he'll be ridden with a tad more restraint in the hope of picking up as much prize money as possible. No idea what price will be available but I'll take anything from 4/1 up. He has won on heavy so will love the ground.

At Aintree I like the claims of Join Together in the Becher Chase over the National fences. I backed him each way earlier in the week when he was 10/1 at Ladbrokes. This second season chaser is a thorough stayer who likes the soft and I think this test will suit him much better than his first race of the season at Ascot where he was outpaced on good to soft over a barely adequate three miles. You never know if a horse will adapt to these fences but if he does he has leading claims. A good novice last year I think a proper stamina sapping test like this race tomorrow will show him to be a well handicapped animal and I expect him to be in the hunt. He is second top weight though and I fear West End Rocker so the place element of the bet is prudent.

Becher Chase:
Join Together £15ew @ 10/1 and £20w @ 8/1 (second)

Tingle Creek:
Kumbeshwar £40w (without Sprinter Sacre) at best available odds on course. (won) (actual bet was a straight forecast @ 6/1)

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Big Weekend

This weekend potentially sees two incredibly defining match-ups between Sprinter Sacre and Sanctuaire at Sandown in the Tingle Creek on Saturday and Flemenstar versus Sir Des Champs in the John Durkan at Punchestown. I'll be in attendance at the former, my first visit to Sandown, and I am nearly beside myself in anticipation. I expect the Black Aeroplane to deal with Sanctuaire reasonably comfortably and the setting plus the racing and jumping characteristics of these two animals make this the most exciting renewal of the race since the legendary 2004 renewal that featured Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop and Well Chief.
Over in Ireland on Sunday I'll be more tense if anything because I am trying to build up a position on Flemenstar for the Gold Cup. He's a fantastic jumper of a fence and I think ground and travelling worries are overstated in regard to his chances at Cheltenham. Sprinter Sacre aside he's the most exciting second season chaser around imo.

The weekend just gone was a pretty informative one and we had a number of Festival clues to ponder. Bob's Worth won the Hennessy nicely enough and I think he is a worthy favourite for the Gold Cup at this time but I think one or two of his rivals may have too much for him come March and at around 5/1 he seems priced about right to me.
I was quite taken by Arvika Ligeonniere in the Drinmore. He jumped neatly and economically and looks a horse with gears. His action suggests good ground won't be a problem to him (also ran well in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival on decent ground in his novice hurdle days) and I think quotes of 10/1 about him for the Arkle represent a touch of value. Simonsig hasn't been out yet and he's very short for the race considering he has yet to jump a fence. I've been keen to have a go at the race for a while because of this and Willie Mullins horse is the first contender to properly excite me for the race. I think his inflated price might have something to do with the thought that the horse could be a stayer in the making but Mullins has Boston Bob for the RSA and I feel he'd much prefer to win the Arkle than the Jewson and with Arvika Ligeonniere not being owned by Gigginstown the trainer may get his way this time. There is of course plenty of precedent for staying novice hurdlers running over two miles as novice chasers - Simonsig is going down this route and Tiday Bay won the Arkle having been campaigned over longer trips as a younger horse.
Elsewhere Champagne Fever blotted his copybook in the Royal Bond and whilst you could argue the trip was too short he doesn't look as fluent or as classy over timber as Clandaw Kaempfer who has really impressed me with his two victories thus far this season. He won over two miles last time out but looks a staying prospect and is bred to appreciate decent ground. Donald McCain won the Neptune with Peddlers Cross in 2010 and this horse looks just as good at this stage of their respective careers.

King George:
Al Ferof £30w @ 10/1
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 8/1

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Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Arvika Ligeonniere £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
Grandouet £10w @12/1

Neptune:
Clandaw Kaempfer £15w @ 14/1

RSA:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1
Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Jewson:
Oscars Well £15w @ 16/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Al Ferof £5w @ 54/1

Doubles:
Sizing Europe (King George) and Clandaw Kaempfer (Neptune) £10 @ 8/1 and 12/1

Grandouet (Champion Hurdle) and Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Newbury - 1st Dec (Part 2)

I was a bit premature with the blog entry yesterday evening as a study of the Racing Post this morning at work has unearthed another bet. Michael Flips was well touted for the Paddy Power at Cheltenham a couple of weeks ago but he was disappointing in a savage race where only six finished. He's still a well handicapped horse based on his run behind For Non Stop at this track in February and the handicap he's in today is nowhere near as hard as the Paddy Power was. He's second top weight and I always favour the classy horses in races like this. At 10/1 at Victor Chandler I think he's a sporting each way bet.

I've also added First Lieutenant in the Hennessy. I backed him in the RSA last season and detailed earlier in the week why I thought he had claims of reversing the form of that race with Bob's Worth if they met again. At the time I didn't think it would be in this race as the ground looked like it would be soft and First Lieutenant's best form is on a decent surface. The price differential between the two of them for today's race is excessive in any event. I really didn't want more than two horses in such a tough race to be honest but I can't let this animal go at a double figure price on ground that should now suit. He ran a most encouraging race on deepish ground at Down Royal first time out where he battled on once collared by Kauto Stone and today's conditions (soundly run race on goodish ground)  will suit him.

Hennessy Gold Cup:
Magnanimity £35w @ 22/1 and £15pl @ 5/1 (lost)
Frisco Depot £25w @ 13/1 (lost)
First Lieutenant £25w @ 11/1 (lost)

Sportingbet Handicap Chase:
Michael Flips £25ew @ 10/1 (lost)

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Newbury - 1st Dec

Thank god for the Hennessy tomorrow. The graded hurdle races at Newbury and Newcastle have cut up to be most uncompetitive affairs and if it wasn't for the big handicap we'd be looking at a pretty sparse looking Saturday.

The big race itself I've already written about earlier in the week and although the ground wont be as soft as I thought it was going to be at that time I remain keen on Magnanimity who on top of having form on a decent surface now has a 5lb claimer on board further reducing the weight he'll carry. It really is a fearsomely competitive race and in looking through it yesterday I found myself making cases for both Nick Williams runners, First Lieutenant, Teaforthree and Frisco Depot. I can't bet all of them though so I've backed the latter mentioned Frisco Depot. He travelled like the best horse in the race at Ascot first time out in the United House Gold Cup before falling towards the end of the race and he also has very nice pieces of form in Ireland from last season. He finished just 5 lengths behind Flemenstar at Naas in March and it's that run more than anything else that points to him being well in tomorrow off 141. I'm a huge fan of Flemenstar and the selection must be considered a decent sort to get that close to him. He also has Sam Waley-Cohen on board, further reducing his weight and at 14 on Betfair I think he's very fairly priced.

Hennessy Gold Cup:
Magnanimity £35w @ 22/1 and £15pl @ 5/1
Frisco Depot £25w @ 13/1

Hennessy Gold Cup

After the Grand National this race is the biggest Handicap of the Jumps season and thanks to the immortal exploits of Denman I think it will always have a special place in the hearts of followers of the sport.

Favourite for this year's contest at present is RSA winner Bob's Worth. I have to say I'm not wholly convinced by this creature and think he is in a false position in the market for this race and the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. I backed First Lieutenant in that RSA and I feel if the gallop had been stronger he'd have won that race. He didn't settle that day and the energy lost by pulling for his head cost him at the business end of the race. First Lieutenant in theory re-opposes on Saturday but with all the rain around I'll be surprised if he comes over. Bob's Worth has high class form but he's one to oppose with a big weight on the probable soft ground he'll encounter on Saturday.

The Gigginstown Stud that own First Lieutenant also has Magnanimity in the race and I took prices in the win and place markets about him on Friday before he was pulled out of the Troytown race at the weekend. He's a decent soft ground horse who somewhat lost his way last season after a good campaign as a Novice and off 143 he looks well in and I thought at the start of the season he had a decent handicap in him. I might add another horse as we get closer to the race and the declarations are made.

Hennessy Gold Cup;
Magnanimity £10w @ 27/1 and £5pl @ 77/10

Ascot & Haydock - 24th Nov

We have a couple of cracking cards today at Ascot and Haydock and the main events at both courses will have a big bearing on the market for the King George on Boxing Day.

At Haydock Long Run takes on impressive Wetherby winner Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair Chase and at Ascot Finian's Rainbow is the favourite in a cracking renewal of the Amlin Chase where he gives weight to such as For Non Stop and Captain Chris.

I'm in a good position in the King George having backed Al Ferof at 20/1 before his Paddy Power win last week and I also like Finian's Rainbow for the race as well. He had a terrific season in 2011/12 where he improved both his jumping and his ability to see out a race. He was most impressive over two and a half miles at Aintree in the spring and I think he'll stay three miles no bother. Having said that I think he could be vulnerable first time out given the conditions of the day. Captain Chris gets ten pounds from him and I think that could tip the balance in that horses's favour - although he is unproven on the soft ground. Long Run was on the whole a disappointment last season and although he has the best form in today's race by some distance I think he is poor value at short odds. He jumped poorly in the race last year and although a large part of that was trying to keep pace with the great Kauto Star it must go down as a negative given his price, especially given the really soft ground. Silviniaco Conti is a fine young chaser with a bright future and crucially he is a good jumper of a fence and that gives him an edge today imo. I don't like Weird Al or The Giant Bolster at this level.

So, two good races to look forward to with a view to another big race in a month or so. Although I favour Silviniaco Conti and Captain Chris I wouldn't say either of them are outright bets as for all there are angles in both contests that point to them ultimately they do have something to find with the market leaders of their respective races. With that in mind I have decided to just have a small double on them at Betfair SP.

As for the King George, it is possible that Finian's Rainbow could be favourite for the race this evening if he wins and Long Run gets beat so I have taken a position on him and also topped up on Al Ferof

Amlin Chase and Betfair Chase:
Captain Chris and Silviniaco Conti £20w dbl @ Betfair SP (won)

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King George:
Al Ferof £15w @ 152/10
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 8/1

Open Meeting Postscript

I'm sure most Racing followers enjoyed the action at the weekend at Cheltenham. We saw some nice performances and some with loads of promise. It's always more of a watching than betting meeting for me featuring as it does plenty of good Novice events in amongst the handicaps.

I've already written about Fingal Bay and my thoughts on his performance on Friday but the following day we saw Our Father debut over fences in most taking fashion and I have added him to my Festival portfolio. He looked a big athletic jumper who won most impressively over three miles from some decent yardsticks and I consider him more of an RSA Chase type than Dynaste from the same yard. The ground on Saturday will in all likelihood be a lot slower than what will face the runners in March but Our Father still looks overpriced at 14/1 in places and I'm happy to have him on my side.

Al Ferof confirmed himself a high class chaser with conditions suiting him in the big race and my positions on him for the King George and Gold Cup look good now. He stayed really well despite the ground and his big weight and is in the mix for all the big races now.

The classiest performer on show on Sunday was Hurricane Fly over in Ireland and he was most fortunate to win as his main rival fell at the last when looking, imo, the likely winner. The Fly has been a fantastic hurdler but I don't think he's as good as he was an he's a poor value favourite for the Champion Hurdle at this point. My Spirit Son bet is down the pan unfortunately and in looking for alternatives I've settled on Grandouet. On a line of form through Overturn he pretty much holds all the principles from last March's race and I think 12/1 is fair as I'm not convinced about last year's Novices. Cinders and Ashes and Darlan both looks horses with plenty of promise but I don't think last season's Supreme Novices was anywhere near as good as 2011's epic renewal and they are poor value propositions for what they have achieved. Grandouet has superior form than both these horses, travels really well and has a good turn of foot. I think Zarkandar will be his main rival come March but at four points or so longer in the market I prefer the Henderson horse.

Elsewhere Captain Conan jumped nicely on his debut but I don't think he has the pace for the Arkle. Oscar's Well might have, however he fell on Sunday on really deep ground at Punchestown and I just hope that tumble doesn't leave it's mark. He's a horse who has run well twice at the Festival and I think he prefers good ground. Jessica Harrington has said that two and a half miles on decent going will be his optimum so Jewson rather than Arkle may be his target. Time will tell.

Ante Post List:

King George:
Al Ferof £10w @ 20/1

--------------------

Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
Grandouet £10w @ 12/1

Neptune:
Clandaw Kaempfer £10w @ 16/1

RSA:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1
Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Jewson:
Oscars Well £10w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Al Ferof £5w @ 54/1

Cheltenham - 17th Nov

On the face of it Fingal Bay's run in the Novice Chase that kicked off the Open meeting today wasn't that heartening for someone with an ante-post voucher about him for the RSA Chase at the Festival but I think some positives can be gleaned from it. They only went a moderate gallop and the horse didn't settle well as a result. You'd have to think a championship event with more runners would have a far stronger pace and of course the RSA is over a fair bit further that today's event. Fingal Bay looks a proper stayer on looks, he's a big horse with a huge backside and he has an engine in him. He just got out speeded today by a good horse. He jumped nicely throughout as well though, a big positive for a novice.

I'm excited about tomorrow's big race. It looks a very good renewal of the Paddy Power and I have already posted my thoughts on the race. I have topped up my bet on Al Ferof since my last post and I think he's been underrated for this race. The Supreme Novices he won at the Festival back in 2011 is a race I must have watched at least twenty times, mostly because of Sprinter Sacre it has to be said. Al Ferof stormed up the hill that day and it remains the best run of his career. He has taken to fences well in the main despite a couple of dodgy runs late last season but this race tomorrow will be his first start in a proper big field since that epic win. He's been crying out for a decent pace and a trip in excess of two miles for a long time and he remains very unexposed. Grands Crus will be incredibly tough to beat though and I have covered on that horse both in a double and in an outright bet as he has drifted slightly since my last post. A cracking contest is in store.

Paddy Power Gold Cup:
For Non Stop £20w @ 21/1 (NR)
Al Ferof £50w @ 94/10 (won)
Grands Crus £25w @ 26/10 and £10dbl with Finian's Rainbow (King George) @ 9/4 and 8/1 (lost)

(+534)

Open Meeting

Friday sees the start of Jumps Racing's first proper big meeting of the season. It's a three day event and there are numerous good horses scheduled to appear. On the Friday we have the Novice Chase that the likes of Denman and Grands Crus have won in the past opening the meeting. Fingal Bay is set to appear in this against better opposition that he faced at Chepstow the other week. The Novice Hurdle later on that afternoon features a number of very promising animals and is a must for the record button on the remote.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is the big race of the weekend and my ante-post bet on the race went south when For Non Stop wasn't declared on Monday. It looks a high class renewal and I think it will be between the second season chasers near the top of the handicap who seem well treated in the main and look to have too much class for the more exposed animals that lurk at the bottom of the weights. Having had a little on Al Ferof for the King George I was naturally interested in him when Nicholls confirmed the race as a definite for the horse at the 5 day stage. Al Ferof hasn't run in a race with a big field and a strong pace since he won the Supreme at the Festival eighteen months or so ago and he is very unexposed at this sort of trip. He jumps well enough and the sort of lead he'll get in a competitive race like this will really suit him. I got a little over 9/1 on Monday and I firmly believe he's the main danger to short price favourite Grands Crus. The Pipe horse looks well handicapped off 157 and his stable has farmed this race in the past. He was disappointing in the RSA at the Festival but he went into that race having not run since Boxing Day and I believe it was this rustiness against hard fit rivals that cost him as much as a lack of stamina. It's a poor effort that certainly kept his rating down and he must go close even if he is a bit short in the market. For that reason I have put him in a cheeky little double rather than had an outright bet on him.

Sunday's card looks top notch as well. There is a massive Handicap hurdle that I haven't really looked at yet and also the return of Sprinter Sacre to the racecourse. All in all a meeting to really get the blood pumping.

Paddy Power Gold Cup:
For Non Stop £20w @ 21/1 (NR)
Al Ferof £40w @ 925/100
Grands Crus and Finian's Rainbow (King George) £10dbl @ 9/4 and 8/1

Wincanton - 10th Nov

Third Jumps bet of the season tomorrow and the third Nick Williams horse I've backed. It might seem like I follow the stable slavishly but when a Hennessy winner like Diamond Harry is 8/1 first time out against the sort of opposition he faces tomorrow on a mark 6lbs lower than the one he won on at Newbury it would be downright rude not to tuck in.

The horse had a poor season in 2011/12 but there are mitigating circumstance. First time out in the Betfair Chase he travelled really well behind Kauto Star before weakening in the straight and essentially being outclassed. No shame in that. He then ran twice at Cheltenham - a course it is clear now he absolutely does not act around. He'd plainly not recovered from those exertions when he pulled up at Aintree in April. The trainer has admitted that he's a fragile horse and he probably shouldn't have gone to Liverpool. There has been no news on any physical ailment and first time out does seem to be the time to catch him.

Tomorrow's opposition are light years away from kauto Star and Long Run and if he's anywhere near his Hennessy Gold Cup winning form (and a lack of injury news, the fact that he is still only nine years old, plus his lightly raced profile) suggests he could be - he's pretty much nailed on for this sort of contest.

I am also considering a bet in the Elite Hurdle that precedes Diamond Harry's race. Zarkandar has to give a fair bit of weight away to some decent types and I like the chances of Prospect Wells from the same Paul Nicholls stable. I'm holding off for the time being as I want to know what the ground will be. Prospect Wells was only beaten 2L in the Supreme on good ground and has ropey looking form on softer.

Edit 10th Nov:
The ground has changed to soft, good to soft in places after overnight rain at Wincanton and that puts me off Prospect Wells. His trainer actually says in today's Racing Post that he wants rain for the horse but that goes against what the form book says. On this sort of ground I like the claims of Balder Success. He looked a horse of some promise before coming down in the Triumph Hurdle and I think for such a young horse that was a monumental test for him. I think he found the lively ground and fast pace too much to cope with. The 4/1 about him today is a decent price. This sort of small field race on soft ground isn't really going to suit Zarkandar who is up against it running off 163 for all that he's a quality animal. I actually think he'd be a strong contender for the World Hurdle this season but I doubt Nicholls will let him take on Big Buck's

Elite Hurdle:
Balder Success £50w @ 4/1 (lost)

Badger Ales Trophy:
Diamond Harry £60w @ 8/1 (lost)

(+140)

Sea Change in NH

The last ten days or so have been incredibly significant for the future of Jumps racing. Late last week came the news that Kauto Star had been retired and in amongst that we have had some really impressive performances by second season chasers, the new order if you will.

I was always more of a Denman man but naturally had an enormous amount of respect for Kauto Star. I saw him win a couple of his Betfair Chases in person: his narrow victory over Imperial Commander in 2009 being one of the most thrilling races I've ever seen. He'll be must missed and like Desert Orchid and Arkle, never forgotten by National Hunt fans.

For Non Stop, Silvaniaco Conti and Cue Card have all won nice races in the last week or so, and with Sprinter Sacre, Flemenstar, Sir Des Champs and Grand Crus all waiting in the wings I think the future of the sport is very bright. Let's hope they all have full seasons and get to the Festival in one piece. I will be in attendance at Sandown on Tingle Creek day and I'm hopeful that Sprinter Sacre and Sanctuaire will meet-up for a mouth watering race.

For Non Stop has shot up to a mark of 162 after his Old Roan win but I still think he has a fair each chance in the Paddy Power. He'll be fit as a butchers dog, it's clear he has progressed a fair bit since last season and I have topped up.

Ante-Post Portfolio:

Paddy Power Gold Cup:
For Non Stop £20w @ 21/1

King George:
Al Ferof £10w @ 18/1
--------

Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1

RSA:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Al Ferof £5w @ 54/1

Ascot - 3rd Nov

There are some nice races at Ascot and Wetherby tomorrow and the bet of the day is in the three mile handicap chase at the former track where I think Alfie Spinner is weighted to go close. I foolishly backed this horse in the four miler for novices at the Festival where the trip (too far) and the ground (too lively) were against him. The ground will be soft enough tomorrow and off 140 he has a nice handicap in him over this sort of trip. After all, he ran a superb race behind Invictus and RSA winner Bob's Worth over course and distance in February. He may have been slightly flattered by that result as Bob's Worth is a Cheltenham specialist but nevertheless he's ahead of the handicapper without doubt as he goes into open company. He's 2lb wrong in this but has a 3lb claimer onboard.

United House Gold Cup:
Alfie Spinner £50w @ 66/10 (lost)

(+250)

Aintree - 27th October

Tomorrow's Old Roan Chase at Aintree looks a decent renewal with a couple of up and coming animals taking on some old stagers. For Non Stop is a horse I have backed quite a few times over hurdles and fences and I think he's more than fairly priced at 6/1 for this contest. He had a good novice season which included a Grade 1 in an admittedly poor renewal of the Scilly Isles Chase at Newbury. He was a bit below par at the Festival but in the main he jumped well in 2011/12 and looks a decent stayer in the making. Off 151 tomorrow and in the Paddy Power in mid November I think he's fairly enough handicapped to take advantage of this mark.

Of his opponents tomorrow Wishfull Thinking is giving plenty of weight away, Nacarat is surely too old to score in decent company at this sort of trip (two and a half miles), and Gauvain only seems to win really uncompetitive races. I do respect Noble Prince however. His form last year was a bit in and out and indeed his runs behind Big Zeb in Ireland don't read as good now as they did at the time. But if he can recapture some of his Novice form he'll be a big danger to my selection. I don't know what to make of Pacha Du Polder. His form is nowhere near strong enough to warrant favouritism and he owes his position in the market to being trained by Paul Nicholls. His cramped odds kind of make the race and I'm hopeful of a good run from my selection. My only worry is that Nick might be running him in this just to get him in proper shape for his bigger test on the 17th November. If he wins either of these contests I'll be happy.

Old Roan Chase:
For Non Stop £50w @ 6/1 (won)

Frankel vs Cirrus Des Aigles

Frankel is the best flat horse I've ever seen and chances are he will win tomorrow on his final outing but the gap between him and French gelding Cirrus Des Aigles is a narrow one imo on the likely very soft conditions underfoot at Ascot. I took big prices about the latter before his impressive win in the Prix Dollar and have topped up gradually since then. I actually think it will be a close run thing and I can see a ding dong battle to the line. For that reason I have put in an In-Running lay of my selection at even money. This will be my final bet of a quite difficult at times Flat season. But one that will end in profit.

Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £90w @ 75/10 (lost)

(+866)

Ante-Post Update

I'm very excited about Saturday's showdown between Frankel and Cirrus Des Aigles. I'm not taking the great horse lightly with my bet on the latter but the ground looks like it could almost be on the heavy side and that brings them quite close together. I've topped up the initial small money I had at 16/1 and may do the same on the day of the race depending on the conditions.

After Champions Day I concentrate on the Jumps as the Breeders Cup is trappy from a betting point of view and to be honest American racing leaves me a bit cold. The Paddy Power Gold Cup is the first major race of the season on the 17th November and I've opened a small position on For Non Stop. The weights aren't out yet but the Nick Williams trained gelding is currently on a mark of 151 which underrates him. He has a certain amount of scope, especially for a race of this nature. He's been running on well at the end of small field graded novice chases up to now and I think being held up in a big field with plenty of cover will suit him. Naturally I am slightly biased given where he is based but I don't back Nick Williams horses willy nilly. For me following a stable just means I get to know a certain amount of horses better, I get more familiar with their form and the conditions they need to perform to their best.

Last weekend Fingal Bay had his first race over the larger obstacles and whilst he wasn't overly impressive he jumped very tidily before idling near the finish. We'll learn more when he faces better rivals.
Also on Saturday there were a couple of really big two year old races. Dawn Approach looked some tool in battling out an impressive win in the Dewhurst and will be tough to beat if he returns to Newmarket in May. I  also thought Cristoforo Colombo was interesting in the 6f Middle Park that preceded it. He got badly outpaced against faster rivals but ran on really well at the end and I think another couple of furlongs in next year's Guineas and faster ground will suit him far better. Immediately after the race some quite insulting prices were available on Betfair about him so I took some action.


Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £30w @ 10/1

----------------------

Paddy Power Gold Cup:
For Non Stop £10w @ 24/1

Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1

RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1


-----------------------
2000 Guineas:
Cristoforo Colombo £10w @ 36/1

1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1

Future Champions Day

As the title of this entry says today is future champions day at Newmarket as headquarters hosts the Middle Park and Dewhurst Stakes for 2yos. Dawn Approach is a very short priced for the latter and should win whilst the former looks quite competitive. I like Moohaajim in that race. He was beaten by Reckless Abandon in the Prix Morny but after being drawn nearest the inside rail his jockey met trouble in running and the horse eventually finished two lengths behind the winner but was widest of all as they crossed the line. Moohaajim then went on to win the Mill Reef impressively at Newbury. It should be close between them today but the market reflects that. No bet.

The big betting race of the day is the Cesarewitch and I've had a little each way on Motivado at 16/1. I was at Haydock last year when he won a minor event there ultra impressively and he was favourite for the Ebor in August after doing a similar demolition job in a handicap at Glorious Goodwood. I backed him at York where he finished a staying on 4th. I really think this step up in trip will suit him and this is a good each way race because most bookmakers pay five places and you have to be drawn relatively lowly to have a chance. Sir Mark's animal is in stall 13 which is ok. It's a competitive race but my selection looks slightly overpriced.

It seems strange that on a racing day entitled future champions day Channel 4 are showing races from York and ignoring the jumping at Chepstow. The action at the Knavesmire is very hum drum but Fingal Bay runs in a novice chase at the Welsh track and I'm excited about seeing him jump a fence. I'm confident this horse will be a future champion be it as a novice or a future Gold Cup horse. Along with Flemenstar he is the cornerstone of my Cheltenham Festival hopes next spring. As a novice hurdler he was the only horse to beat Simonsig last year in a race at Sandown in December. The form of that race worked out perfectly and I did back Fingal Bay for the Baring Bingham at the Festival but unfortunately he got injured in February. He ran at Aintree but got caught near the finish, displaying a certain rustiness to my mind given that he hadn't run in a while. I'm hoping for a good round of juping today and he does look a fine chaser in the making.

Cesarewitch:
Motivado £25ew @ 16/1 (4th)

(+956)



Cheltenham Festival:
Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1

RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1

Arc Aftermath / Ante-Post

I've been punting now for over twenty years and yesterday's Arc was the most heartbreaking loss in those two decades. When Orfevre went clear it looked a done deal and I was on my feet screaming at the jockey to keep him going but alas he was caught near the line. He was the best horse in the race and his turn of foot reminded me of Peintre Celebre's in the same race but the deep ground and the wide draw did for him really.
I hope he comes back over for the race next year.

Soumillon said post-race that Orfevre is the best horse he has ridden, a bit heat of the moment considering he won the Arc on Dalakhani and Zarkava. You can see his point though in a way. He has also ridden Cirrus Des Aigles who was most impressive winning the Prix Dollar on Saturday after an absence from the racecourse through injury. He won the Champion Stakes at an amazing 12/1 last year when he was my biggest winner by far of that flat season but all the talk before the weekend has been about Frankel and the fact that the race will be his swansong. Cirrus was again being ignored and before he won the Prix Dollar I took some 18 and 16 on Betfair about him for the Ascot contest. Obviously Frankel will be a massive nut to crack and I am to a large extent hoping for soft ground the gelding. I think he's a special horse under those conditions and Ascot with it's short straight isn't Frankel's ideal venue.

Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £10w @ 16/1

----------------------
Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1

RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £40w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1



-----------------------
1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1  

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Bronze Angel's win last Saturday was some buzz. He only took the lead in the last fifty yards but put nearly a length between himself and the runner up as they crossed the line and if his trainer runs him in the Lincoln he'd be worth backing again. As a punter who doesn't bet every day wins like this define a season and I'm now sure to finish in profit this flat season.

I'm in a great position in tomorrow's big race despite three non-runners now Danedream doesn't go (although I got some of my stake back on her so unusual were the circumstances regarding her withdrawal). I first backed Orfevre for the race way back in April when someone posted a video on a Forum I'm a member of of a race where he dropped out as the runners went around a bend only for the horse to get back in the race late on to finish second. It was a stunning performance. Japanese horses have tried and failed to win this race in the past and like runners-up Nakayama Festa and El Condor Pasa Orfevre has raced in France in preparation for the Arc and I think his run in the Prix Foy was most encouraging. I have 12/1 about him which is now excellent value but I do worry that really soft ground won't be totally ideal. His wide draw in stall 18 is far from ideal as well. Having said that the likes of Dalakhani and Sakhee have won the race from coffin draws in the past and with Soumillon riding (no one rides Longchamp better) I still expect a big run.

Nick Mordin came out with an interesting statistic in relation to the race in this week's Racing Post Weekender. Apparently 12 of the last 13 Arc winners had won a Group 1 race that season by at least two lengths. Only Orfevre, Camelot and St Nicholas Abbey qualify of this years runners. I can't have Camelot as his trainer has a terrible record with his 3yos at this meeting (they're usually over the top by the Autumn so busy have they been running in Classics) and his run in the St Leger hardly inspires any confidence. SNA has been on the go all year and for me has no chance. Sea Moon though won the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot by three lengths and that race is pretty much a Group 1 in all but name. It is certainly usually a better race than most Group 1 races run in Germany and even the odd one in France. Sea Moon loves cut in the ground and conditions in Paris will really suit him tomorrow. I think he has excellent place claims.

I've also backed the 3yo Saonois. He won the Prix du Jockey Club a shade cozy and might have been more impressive (and even qualified using Mordin's stat) if that race was still a 12f contest. I was also taken with his win in the Prix Niel. After my debacle in the race last year when I was all over SNA and Sarafina I resolved that I would never go into the Arc again without at least one 3yo on my side. They have a terrific record in the race and I feel this is partly due to the overly generous weight-for-age allowance they receive (older males give 8 and 11lb to 3yo colts and fillies respectively) and also the way they are put away for the summer in preparation for the race. Saonois seems the likeliest candidate of that age group and his unfashionable connections mean he is still overpriced. In summary Camelot's ridiculous price (he's favourite when I believe there are at least four likelier winners) means there is good value to be had about more than one horse in this great race in 2012.

I normally top up on my main fancy for these races as the day gets close but with Orfevre's poor draw/soft ground concern and my liking for the two other animals mentioned I've decided to leave it.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Orfevre £70w @ 12/1 (lost)
Sea Moon £15w £25pl @ 12/1(lost)
Saonois £30w @ 10/1(lost)

£40 lost on three non-runners

(+881)

Newmarket - 29th Sept

I've been banging on about Bronze Angel since the Royal Meeting in June and tomorrow is D day as he takes in the Cambridgeshire Handicap off bottom weight. I'm so pleased he gets in the race as he was balloted out of the Golden Mile at Goodwood at the beginning of August. I wasn't paying the Britannia Handicap that much attention but his run in that race really caught my eye. He was drawn 17 in the middle of the track and was clear of his opponents there when he was aimed towards the far side to take issue with the leading bunch. What I look for in a handicapper is fast finishing horses who ideally take the lead well inside the final furlong and win by around a length give or take. These animals almost never have their ratings adjusted too much and it pays to follow them. Now, although Bronze Angel didn't win that day at Ascot he really finished well and actually put over a length between himself and the animal in fourth inside the last 200 yards or so. He had to cover more ground in finishing where he did on the track (of the twenty nine runners he was the only one of the first seven home who was drawn higher than eight.) It really was a most taking effort and he has been number 1 on my list of horses to follow ever since.

The prices for the Cambridgeshire came out in August and I had a little bit on at 30 and 34 on Betfair. I didn't expect his odds to contract that much in the mean time as he was still an under the radar type of animal but unfortunately the Pricewise column in the Racing Post selected him as an ante-post selection for the race. This naturally resulted in his odds shortening somewhat but I still managed to get a little bit on each way at 20/1 with Ladbrokes. He's around a 12/1 shot now and I topped up earlier this week. The prices I took initially ensure I have the value about him. I will obviously beat the SP comfortably. Having not run since June he'll be a fresh horse for this which is a bonus and his trainer has booked William Buick for the ride. Another positive. I'm confident he's going to run really well. Any cut in the ground is OK as it was good to soft at Ascot.

Cambridgeshire:
Bronze Angel £60w @ 19/1 and £20ew @ 18/1 (won)


(+1061)

Ante-Post Update

The next couple of weeks will define my flat season as my two most important bets of the year run on consecutive weekends. First off we have Bronze Angel in Saturday's Cambridgeshire. This is a horse that leapt to the head of my horses to follow list after his excellent run from a poor draw in the Britannia Handicap at the Royal Meeting. He didn't get in a big handicap at Goodwood in July and so has had a fair spell on sidelines. Up until the five day declarations this morning it was looking doubtful whether that he'd get in the Cambridgeshire as well but a lot of horses have been pulled and I believe only two need to come out for him to get a run now. Fortunately I took odds of 30 and 33/1 on Betfair for bits and pieces when the prices came out a month or so ago because Pricewise recently selected him for the race. This has led to his odds crashing somewhat but I have the value and have topped in the meantime.

The Arc is a week later and my position on Orfevre looks very strong. I've backed him again since my last post and I'm very confident. I just hope the ground isn't too soft.

Cambridgeshire:
Bronze Angel £25w @ 24/1 and £10ew @ 20/1

Orfevre £70w @ 12/1
Danedream £10w @ 6/1
Danedream and Boston Bob (RSA Chase) £10dbl @ 6/1 and 10/1
£30 lost on two NR's

----------------------
Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1

RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £35w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1



-----------------------
1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1 

Ayr - 22nd Sept

The Ayr Gold Cup isn't a race I normally get involved in but I can't resist the claims of The Cheka today given the underfoot conditions. The race meeting was in some doubt earlier in the week because of the amount of rain the west coast of Scotland has had and the ground today is heavy. The Cheka hasn't the speed to cope with 6f animals on decent ground but he was second in the July Cup on deep ground and was also runner up to the top class Moonlight Cloud in the Prix Maurice de Gheest over six and a half at Deauville. Conditions were also testing in that Group 1 contest and I think at 16/1 today with five places being paid he is a fine each way bet. It is true he has a lot of weight and there are some improving types in the race who may be better handicapped but my selection is a big, rangy horse who can carry it.

Ayr Gold Cup:
The Cheka £20ew @ 16/1 (lost)

(-474)

Arc/Leger

Camelot stands on the threshold of history tomorrow as he attempts to become the first colt to win the Triple Crown since Nijinsky in 1970. I hope he does it and think he will but he is at the head of a well below crop of 3yo males and has little to beat. I backed Great Heavens ante-post for this in the hope that the ground would have plenty of cut in it but John Gosden runs his filly in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp on Sunday instead.

That race is one of three trials for the Arc and Orfevre takes part in the Prix Foy. His price has contracted sharply in the last few days and I've topped up my position on him. He doesn't have to win on Sunday but I'd like to see a nice run. As I've noted before, the fact that he has a run before his Arc bid is a great sign.

St Leger:
Great Heavens £30w @ 13/1 (NR)

Arc:
Orfevre £60w @ 135/10
Danedream £10w @ 6/1
Danedream and Boston Bob (RSA Chase) £10dbl @ 6/1 and 10/1
£30 lost on two NR's


(-434)

Leopardstown - 8th Sept

I blogged about the Irish Champion Stakes earlier in the week and I had hoped to top my bet on Snow Fairy up but the race has cut up badly at the declaration stage with only six runners confirmed. Therefore I've decided to leave it.

Irish Champion Stakes:
Snow Fairy £40w @ 3/1 (won)

(-404)

Arc Thoughts

Even though I consider myself more of a jumps than a flat man these days (I would say 60/40 in favour of the former), The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe remains my favourite race of the whole year.

I've backed the winner more often in this race than any other. I had money on Suave Dancer, Subotica, Hellisio, Montjeu, Bago, Hurricane Run, Rail Link and Dylan Thomas when they won in Paris in October.

This year we have a market at this present time with a huge amount of juice in it. Best prices now:

Camelot 3/1
Danedream 6/1
Nathaniel 7/1
Orfevre 12/1
Meandre 16/1
Snow Fairy 18/1
Masterstroke 20/1

I can't have Camelot one iota. Only one 3yo colt has won an all aged Group 1 this year, an appalling stat. It's a poor crop. Add to that Aidan O'Brien's bad record in the race with his 3yos and also the fact that the horse is running in the St Leger and he is not so much opposed as completely overlooked. Nathaniel is another horse I cannot have. He's only a point longer than Danedream despite the fact that the German filly holds him on form, is proven on the course, and whereas she has had her prep in a relatively straight forward German Group 1 that was run at a steady pace Nathaniel runs in the Irish Champion on Saturday. I don't think he'll win that and even if he does it will be a hard battle. Not ideal prep for an Arc. In 2003 Dalakhani won the race narrowly from Mubtaker with High Chaparral five lengths back in third. That wasn't the latter's form, but whereas the front two had prepped for the Arc with easy successes in the Niel and the September Stakes, High Chaparral had contested the Irish Champion and had a lung bursting duel with the top class Falbrav that surely left it's mark. Time and again we see Arc winners who have campaigns geared towards the race and it really does pay to side with these animals.

My money is already down on Orfevre for this. Japan's triple crown winner is such an exciting horse to watch. Here he is earlier this summer

To me he has that flashy brilliance that Deep Impact had. Crucially though Orfevre will take in the Prix Foy on Arc trials day. This is something Deep Impact didn't do in his prep for the Arc and his rustiness cost him in my opinion. He hadn't run since the June of that year and that told in October. Orfevre is a great price for this and I see Danedream as pretty much the only danger. Therefore she's added as cover.



Orfevre £40w @ 15/1
Danedream £10w @ 6/1
Danedream and Boston Bob (RSA Chase) £10dbl @ 6/1 and 10/1
£30 lost on two NR's

Irish Champion Stakes

At this stage Snow Fairy looks a tad too big for this at a generally available 3/1. The weather forecast suggests fast ground and I think Nathaniel looks a bit short. 6/4 seems very skinny, particulary for a horse that likes to get his toe in. Ed Dunlop's mare acts on any ground, ran a cracker in this very race last year and tends to come on for her first run of the season. The rest seem to be either 3yo's I don't rate (Imperial Monarch), or animals like Princess Highway and St Nicholas Abbey who surely won't be seen at their best over a mile and a quarter on ground without a lot of juice in it.

Irish Champion Stakes:
Snow Fairy £40w @ 3/1

Ante-Post Update

Bad times on the ante-post front. First off Newfangled breaks her pelvis last week at York and is later put down and then earlier today Valyra had an accident whilst exercising before a run in the Vermeille in a couple of weeks and she has also been put to sleep. Such a shame as they were both nice fillies with great futures. RIP.

Bronze Angel has an entry in the Cambridgeshire on the 29th Sept and I've opened a position on him. He's not run since June and I don't know if he'll prep for the race.

St Leger:
Great Heavens £30w @ 13/1 

Cambridgeshire: 
Bronze Angel £13w @ 30/1

Arc:
Orfevre £40w @ 15/1 
£30 lost on two NR's




----------------------
Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1

RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £35w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1



-----------------------
1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1 

York - 24th Aug

Having backed Ortensia already for tomorrow's Nunthorpe I wasn't too happy to see the rain arrive today and it fair bucketed it down for a time. She has won on good to soft but her best form is on good ground or faster. On her two runs over here she actually ran better in the July Cup at Newmarket on heavy than she did at Ascot on good to soft. It's well known that some animals just don't like Ascot and her poor run there can't have been just down to the softness of the ground. I'll assess the situation when I get there as I'm at the track tomorrow and if she's 5/1 or better and the ground is no softer than good to soft I will top my £20 bet up.

My other bet will be Dubai Prince in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes over a mile and a furlong. I backed this horse last time out at Goodwood and he looked like a player in the straight but didn't stay the 12f trip that day. He's a horse with a lot of ability who has had a chequered career and I think this sort of small field Group race just below the top level is his sort of race. The favourite is a 3yo so is readily opposed and the rest look much of a muchness. I think the selection is the best horse in the race who would be shorter than he is if he hadn't disappointed last time out and as I've pointed out that run can be ignored quite easily. Like Ortensia I have backed him already and will top up at the best price I can get on course. That's on the understanding that I can get at least 9/2 though.

Nunthorpe Stakes:
Ortensia £60w @ 51/10 (won)

Strensall Stakes:
Dubai Prince £60w @ 5/1 (won)

(-524)

York - 23rd Aug

Frankel was amazing today. I was at York when Dayjur won the Nunthorpe in 1990, and I never thought I'd see another horse scorch up that straight like he did that day. It was a pleasure to behold. Even though I have a position on the race I would dearly love to see the great one go for the Arc in October. His trainer is no fan of the contest however so it probably won't happen.

Thursday's card has a couple of really interesting Group races for the fairer sex and I'll be hoping for a good run from Newfangled in the Lowther. I was happy to take 16/1 about her for next year's 1000 Guineas after her win at Royal Ascot and a similar result tomorrow would see her go quite short for next May's race.

My only bet of the day is on Shareta in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks. This French trained filly is a fast ground animal who loved the conditions she faced in last year's Arc where she was a fantastic runner-up despite being a pacemaker. That run was a big step up on all known form but it was the first time she'd had her ground in a big race. This year she's run twice and not won but under foot conditions were soft on both occasions. The good to firm ground will really suit her and at around 4.7 on Betfair I think she's a good value bet. I'm not in love with our 3yo fillies this year and I think 7/4 about The Fugue is poor. She won the Nassau Stakes nicely enough last time out but I thought it was an average renewal of the race and for me she's overrated. The fact remains that Shareta owns the single best piece of form on offer in the race and yet is nowhere near being the market leader.

EDIT: I've been at work since before five and have given the card a good going over and unearthed a bet in the handicap at at 3.05. Anderiego is a course and distance winner twice this year and each time he's taken the lead at around the furlong pole and won reasonably comfortably on both occasions. He looks like he could still be ahead of the handicapper although it is a tougher ask today. He's worth a bet at 10/1

Yorkshire Oaks:
Shareta £60w @ 37/10 (won)

Betfair, Don't settle for less Handicap:
Anderiego £40w @ 10/1 (lost)

(-1120)

York - 22nd Aug

I'm in horrible form at the moment but the Ebor meeting looks a stormer this year so I'm just gonna punt away and hope for the best.

Frankel's first race beyond a mile is the highlight of the day obviously and he should win but this is a real test for him. He's beaten better horses than he faces tomorrow but not over this trip. His jockey will have to hold on to him for longer over a slower pace than he gets over a mile and hope he doesn't tire towards the end of the race. St Nicholas Abbey is a horse I've opposed a few times but he's one of those creatures who needs his conditions to shine - and a left handed track with a long straight is perfect for him. I don't really think he'll beat Frankel but Bet365 are going 6/1 at a quarter the odds the first three and I cannot have him being unplaced. I really do believe he will love this track and 12f animals have a great record in the race. Derby winner Roberto beat Brigadier Gerard  and I was on Singspiel when he torched Bosra Sham as well. Whatever happens it is a mouth watering prospect.

My other bets are in the mile and a quarter handicap that closes the card. When assessing handicappers I like ones that take the lead late on in the race and don't win by too far. This masks their superiority and keeps the assessor from hiking him too far up the ratings. Last time out at Ascot over 10f the Mark Johnson trained Hajras had these in running comments - "Slowly into stride, held up in last pair, edged right over 2f out, headway on outside over 1f out, hung right and chased leader 1f out, stayed on well to lead last 50yds, won going away". Pretty much exactly what I look for. This race tomorrow looks a relatively hot looking handicap and actually the market leader, Sir John Hackwood, is also the sort of animal that I'm looking for in this type of event. Last time out at Newmarket he led further out than Hajras did in his race and was eased near the finish. That looks quite eye catching and can lead to a bigger jump in the handicap but they were both raised six pounds for their respective successes. The big difference between the pair tomorrow though is the prices. Hajras is available at a little over 7/1 and the favourite is 7/2. They're both backable but the bigger priced horse has to be the main bet.

Finally, I've taken some 11/2 about Australian mare Ortensia in the Nunthorpe on Friday. She was most impressive last time out at Goodwood when winning a Group 3 with a 7lb penalty. She's looked all at sea in her other races this season on soft ground but the dry spell some of us are having is really suiting her. I think she'll take a hell of a lot of beating if conditions remain fast and I'll be in attendance on the day cheering her on.

International Stakes:
St Nicholas Abbey £30ew @ 6/1 (3rd)

Talk to Victor Handicap Stakes:
Hajras £50w @ 72/10 (lost)
Sir John Hackwood £25w @ 7/2 (lost)

Friday:
Nunthorpe Stakes:
Ortensia £20w @ 11/2

(-1292)

Deauville - 19th Aug

Another bad day at the office yesterday. I fancied Brown Panther very strongly but he was just outclassed and outstayed by Mount Athos.

The horse I'm backing today, Giofra in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet, is one of my relatively few decent winning bets this season. She was way overpriced in the Falmouth and I expect the conditions she faces today - 10f on good ground - to really suit her. She needs further than a mile and her win at Newmarket was on rain softened ground. Elusive Kate has really franked that form since as well. Of her opponents today Galikova is respected but with little give in the ground I think this trip is a bit short for her. Snow Fairy makes her seasonal debut and history shows she needs at least one run to get going. Izzi Top has run well all year apart from last time out where she ran in the Nassau on good ground over this trip. I think she needs softer conditions in Group 1 company.
Ultimately I think Giofra has possibly the best form going into this race and just as importantly she's the one horse in the race who is suited to every part of the conditions of this particular contest. Ground, trip and recent form are all massive ticks in the box for her. It really would be nice to get one in the win column before next weeks Ebor Festival.

Prix Jean Romanet:
Giofra £60w @ 3/1 (lost)

(-1232)

Newbury - 18th Aug

We have a strange looking market for the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury tomorrow. Mount Athos is a nice horse who seems to have improved this year and was impressive last time out in a handicap at York, but most bookies are making him favourite for the race ahead of the likes of  Brown Panther, who was beaten by just 4L in the King George last month, and St Leger winner Masked Marvel. The latter has been a tad disappointing this season but this is his first run over more than 12f, and the Leger showed that he really appreciates a trip. I fancy Brown Panther more though. His run at Ascot was a very nice effort and I think he's progressed this year. He was second at Doncaster last September but Masked Marvel kind of got first run and didn't put any lengths into him in the last couple of furlongs of that race. He was also runner-up in this race last year. When I aim to back two horses for a race I do like to err on having more or at least the same amount on the bigger priced of the pair but I do prefer Brown Panther for this contest. Mount Athos makes the race from a punting point of view however and I'll be happy if either win.

Geoffrey Freer Stakes:
Brown Panther £55w @ 27/10 (lost)
Masked Marvel £35w @ 5/1 (lost)

(-1172)

Ante-Post Update

As bad as it's been this flat season traditionally the last couple of months or so are usually quite profitable for me and I expect some nice winners in that period. My biggest success last year was Cirrus Des Aigles in October.

I feel I have a good position in the Arc and I'm really pleased to see that Irish Oaks winner Great Heavens is not in the Yorkshire Oaks next week as I really fancy her for the S Leger. She's bred to stay further than a mile and a half and with cut in the ground at Doncaster I think she'll really give Camelot a huge question to answer. It should not be forgotten that Shergar got beat in a Leger.

Britannia third Bronze Angel remains at the top of my horses to follow list. I'm hoping his trainer has the Cambridgeshire in mind for him but I have to be patient and wait for him to come out again. He was actually in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes tomorrow at Salisbury until the 48hr Decs came out. I do not want a nice run in a conditions race ruining his handicap mark.

I'm going to York next Friday and I like the look of Ortensia who was most taking at Goodwood. But she's a mare who likes it fast under foot and I won't be backing her until the day given our dodgy weather at the moment.

A word on my Cheltenham bets. I have three I really fancy for Festival races next year (more will be written about them come the Jumps season) and my staking plan is just to throw fivers at them when I have a winner.


St Leger:
Great Heavens £25w @ 10/1

Arc:
Beauty Parlour £15w @ 15/1
Orfevre £15w @ 18/1
Valyra £20w @ 165/10



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Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £30w @ 13/1

RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £30w @ 113/10

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1



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1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1