19/11/2012

Open Meeting Postscript

I'm sure most Racing followers enjoyed the action at the weekend at Cheltenham. We saw some nice performances and some with loads of promise. It's always more of a watching than betting meeting for me featuring as it does plenty of good Novice events in amongst the handicaps.

I've already written about Fingal Bay and my thoughts on his performance on Friday but the following day we saw Our Father debut over fences in most taking fashion and I have added him to my Festival portfolio. He looked a big athletic jumper who won most impressively over three miles from some decent yardsticks and I consider him more of an RSA Chase type than Dynaste from the same yard. The ground on Saturday will in all likelihood be a lot slower than what will face the runners in March but Our Father still looks overpriced at 14/1 in places and I'm happy to have him on my side.

Al Ferof confirmed himself a high class chaser with conditions suiting him in the big race and my positions on him for the King George and Gold Cup look good now. He stayed really well despite the ground and his big weight and is in the mix for all the big races now.

The classiest performer on show on Sunday was Hurricane Fly over in Ireland and he was most fortunate to win as his main rival fell at the last when looking, imo, the likely winner. The Fly has been a fantastic hurdler but I don't think he's as good as he was an he's a poor value favourite for the Champion Hurdle at this point. My Spirit Son bet is down the pan unfortunately and in looking for alternatives I've settled on Grandouet. On a line of form through Overturn he pretty much holds all the principles from last March's race and I think 12/1 is fair as I'm not convinced about last year's Novices. Cinders and Ashes and Darlan both looks horses with plenty of promise but I don't think last season's Supreme Novices was anywhere near as good as 2011's epic renewal and they are poor value propositions for what they have achieved. Grandouet has superior form than both these horses, travels really well and has a good turn of foot. I think Zarkandar will be his main rival come March but at four points or so longer in the market I prefer the Henderson horse.

Elsewhere Captain Conan jumped nicely on his debut but I don't think he has the pace for the Arkle. Oscar's Well might have, however he fell on Sunday on really deep ground at Punchestown and I just hope that tumble doesn't leave it's mark. He's a horse who has run well twice at the Festival and I think he prefers good ground. Jessica Harrington has said that two and a half miles on decent going will be his optimum so Jewson rather than Arkle may be his target. Time will tell.

Ante Post List:

King George:
Al Ferof £10w @ 20/1

--------------------

Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
Grandouet £10w @ 12/1

Neptune:
Clandaw Kaempfer £10w @ 16/1

RSA:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1
Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Jewson:
Oscars Well £10w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Al Ferof £5w @ 54/1














No comments:

Post a Comment