24/06/2013

Ascot Postscript/Ante-Post

Despite the chronic week I had I feel quite positive going forward this flat season.

I've always analysed the sort of bets/races/price ranges I tend to do well in and year's of experience has taught me that Group race horses between 7/2 and around 7/1 and double figure priced handicappers are where I excel. With that in mind the three selections that all could have gone in with that little bit of fortune - Toronado in the St James's Palace, Shirkapour (Tercentenary) and Ektihaam (Hardwicke) were all good bets and I think from a staking point of view I want to be increasing the level I have on these sort of animals. Last year a number of horses in this price range - Quest for Peace, Dubai Prince, Shareta, Ortensia, Sea Moon won for me. But each time my stake on these winners was around what my average bet is. That will now change.

A number of horses come out of the Royal meeting as worth following. Amongst the handicappers Cape Peron was too far back in the Britannia and looked most imposing when taken forward towards the furlong marker but didn't have a huge amount left after this move. The big mile handicap at Glorious Goodwood is a natural target but that isn't a track I think he'd run on if the ground was fast and of course it's also a massive draw race. He's also bred to stay further than a mile so long term the Cambridgeshire or the John Smith's Cup at York could be on the agenda. Stirring Ballad is more of a miler and was given a terrible ride in the Hunt Cup and still wasn't beaten that far considering the amount of ground he was asked to cover. She has an entry in the Falmouth but I'd prefer her to continue in handicaps.

In the conditions races I was really impressed with The Fugue in the Prince of Wales's. She was held up in a relatively slowly run contest and ran on really well in the straight and didn't lose any ground to Al Kazeem. I'll be backing her if she goes for the Eclipse.
Toronado and Ektihaam are also still on my radar and I have taken positions on both horses in what I hope will be their next races. The former will take issue with Dawn Approach again in the Sussex Stakes and despite the fact that barely a nose separated them at Ascot and Toronado was checked when beginning his run I'm seeing around evens for Dawn Approach and 4/1 for Toronado (admittedly on Betfair with hardly any liquidity in the market).
Ektihaam should line up in the King George for which I've taken 12/1. It will be a big step up in class but I think he's up to it and I'm not convinced by the animals ahead of him in the market. St Nicholas Abbey has ran twice in the race without winning, Cirrus Des Aigles is a 10f beast, Al Kazeem may well go for the Eclipse next which surely means he wont run at Ascot and Novellist, whilst respected after his big win at Saint-Cloud yesterday, doesn't really strike me as being as good as my selection if I'm honest.

Yesterday also saw Gold Ship winning the Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin in very taking style and my bet on him for the Arc appears not to be dead in the water despite the small matter of his not being entered. Shirkapour's fine run last week also boosted Sky Hunter's form and I have topped up on him. If they both make it to Paris in October I'll be in a fantastic position with a touch of fortune. Luck I feel that I'm due in all honesty.


Sussex Stakes:
Toronado £12w @ 7/2

King George VI and QE Stakes:
Ektihaam £20ew @ 12/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Gold Ship £15w @ 25/1
Sky Hunter £20w @ 45/1
Gentildonna £10w @ 33/1
Bravodino £5w @ 76/1

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King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10

World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1







21/06/2013

Royal Ascot - Day 5

Right, one day left to bag a winner. It's been a terrible meeting for me but I'm plugging on and I have a couple for Saturday.

I keep beating the SP's with my bets and I have 16/1 about Gordon Lord Byron for the Diamond Jubilee. I think he's a cracking sprinter who has strong claims in a tough event. Favourite Society Rock has a couple of decisions over him but last time out at York the selection was drawn away from the action and whilst he'll need luck to beat that animal he's a fair price.

In the Hardwicke I expected Ektihaam to be around 2/1 maybe 15/8 after his impressive course and distance win a month ago. He comes from a poor 3yo crop but that race was his first attempt at 12f and he looks a horse with a future. He's around 11/4 now but I took 100/30 for £20 when the layers opened their books. I did that in the hope that 7/2 would later be available for a top up but that hasn't happened. I want more on but will wait and see how the market goes early tomorrow. He might be worth a trade being a bit of a front runner. His main rival would appear to be Mount Athos and whilst he's a classy individual he surely needs further than 12f to be seen at his best. Impressive at Chester last time out he beat pretty much nothing there. I'd be disappointed if he beats my choice for the race. I've reproduced my bet below as I don't want to seem an after-timer.

More to follow tomorrow.


Edit:
Well, I awake to find a few layers wanting to take Ektihaam on and 7/2 is freely available in two or three places. Readily taken with pleasure.
I have also topped up on Gordon Lord Byron.

Hardwicke Stakes:
Ektihaam £20w @ 100/30 and £40w @ 7/2 (ur) (£40 bet refunded from Paddy Power)

Diamond Jubilee Stakes:
Gordon Lord Byron £15ew @ 16/1 and £25w @ 84/10 (4th)

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20/06/2013

Royal Ascot - Day 4

Another near miss with Shikapour running really well today after being given too much to do. It's at times like these that I get a bit down with the grind of it all. Some selections running no sort of race and others finishing fast for second place.

Friday has the worst card of the week and my only bet runs in the very last race, a 7f handicap. Enrol heads the market at around 6/1 after a fast finishing second (my sort of horse) in a Newmarket handicap over 6f a few weeks ago. But the horse just in behind him re-opposes after running a similar race to the runner-up. The animal in question, the Marco Botti trained Mezzotint, seemed to relish the uphill finish that day on the July course on really fast ground and it makes no sense that he is 25/1 for this contest tomorrow. He's two pounds better off for 3/4 of a length beating by Enrol as well. Naturally it's an ultra competitive race and one or two layers are paying five places.

EDIT 21/6:
I shouldn't blog immediately after a poor day's betting. I've been at work all day and have been watching the action upon my return each night. This entry last night was ultra negative but I do feel more positive now.

Anyway, I've looked at more of the form for today's action and Big Break has been backed at a little over 6/1. I bet her in the Irish 1000 Guineas late last month and whilst she ran well she's was poorly drawn that day and may have been feeling the ground which was good/firm. Today she is well drawn, they have watered at the track and it is raining lightly this morning, and her two main opponents, Just the Judge and Sky Lantern, are drawn widest of all in 16 and 17. It's a bigger than normal field and initially that put me off having a go but everything seems right for Weld's filly today and the last thing I need is to see something win that I was on in their previous race. I think the draw/ground/progression from her first run are enough of an angle(s) to justify a wager in any event.

Coronation Stakes:
Big Break £50w @ 64/10 (lost)

Buckingham Palace Stakes:
Mezzotint £25ew @ 25/1 (5pl) (lost)

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Royal Ascot - Day 3

Wednesday was awful. I didn't get a sniff and I can only presume Toronado's near miss affected my judgement calls. Most annoyed I ridiculously persuaded myself to back Camelot.

Onto Thursday then and I'm rowing in with a couple of French animals again. In the Gold Cup I think Last Train is worth an each way punt at 14/1 with a couple of layers offering a quarter the odds four places. This Fabre 4yo is by Arc winner Rail Link out of a Rainbow Quest mare and he has decent enough form over two miles. He was poor last time out on ground softer than ideal and was beaten by a horse he'd bested the time before. There are dangers naturally and I fear Rite of Passage the most but last year's renewal was poor in my opinion with ordinary horses close up and I want to be against the runners in that race that take part again. I honestly feel Last Train is one of the better contenders in this race and he's a decent price.

Later on in the Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes the Alain De Royer-Dupre trained Shikapour represents the Prix du Jockey-Club form which was boosted on Tuesday when Mshawish was fourth against top class opposition in the St James's Palace. I think the French form is stronger at middle distance than ours and I'm happy to back the Aga Khan's colt at 13/2. He is bred to stay further than the mile and a quarter he'll run over here but 12f animals generally run well at Ascot over shorter (think of the record of these stayers in races like the Prince of Wales.) The John Gosden trained market leader Remote is respected and his form is solid but it is at a lower level and he's quite short. My confidence is at a bit of a low ebb at the moment so there is a place element to this bet as well.

Gold Cup
Last Train £25ew @ 14/1 (lost)

Tercentenary Stakes:
Shikapour £20ew @ 13/2 and £20w @ 68/10 (2nd)

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18/06/2013

Royal Ascot - Day 2

So close with Toronado today. He was a bit unlucky with getting bumped just when Hughes was delivering his run but these things happen.

As impressive as Al Kazeem was last time out when accounting for Camelot in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh I'm not sure Ascot with it's relatively short straight will suit him. Indeed, I'm hoping he struggles in the Prince of Wales and drifts for the Eclipse at a much more suitable venue. Camelot is much more of a turn of foot horse and I think he'll win tomorrow. I would like 3/1 but I don't think that's gonna happen with his stable having a good day today and so I'm trading in an attempt to get it. Of the others in the race I do think The Fugue has claims but the rather tame way Elusive Kate finished her race today makes me think the same thing might happen to her stable companion. Maxios is a solid enough horse but his overall form is a bit behind what's needed here. His level is similar to that of Reliable Man whom I backed in this race last year. But I had almost 16s on that horse so you can see why 6/1 about Maxios doesn't get the blood pumping. The others look outclassed and although Red Cadeaux is a smasher he should be in the Hardwicke over longer.

I love the Hunt Cup and have been lucky enough to have the winner a few times including last year when Prince of Johanne was pretty much a last minute bet. He's off the same mark again, ran in the same prep race at York (in the frame on both occasions) and is worth a go at around 14/1.

I can't remember the last time I had a bet in the Jersey stakes but there are a quartet of French runners in this and exhaustive use of my Equidia subscription has left me interested enough in the unbeaten Mutin and his stablemate The Brother War to back them both. The former has won twice at Saint-Cloud this season and was most impressive in his debut win and even though more workmanlike last time out that was a race run on heavy ground with a gentle pace and he didn't settle well early on. With an American sire I expect decent ground will suit as will a faster pace. The Brothers War I'm not as confident about but he does have form with the Poulains winner (as does Complimentor who also takes part) but Jean-Claude Rouget is a trainer I've done well with in the past and they both seem overpriced.

Additional 19/6:
I expected Camelot to be well backed and shorten in the market this morning but that has not happened and he is available at 7/2 with Hills. I have topped up.

Jersey Stakes:
Mutin £45w @ 86/10 (lost)
The Brothers War £15ew @ 16/1 (lost)

Prince of Wales's Stakes:
Camelot £100w @ 294/100 (IR lay placed @ 2/1 for £30) (lost)

Hunt Cup:
Prince of Johanne £30ew @ 14/1 (lost)

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17/06/2013

Royal Ascot - Day 1

Three selections for me on the opening day of flat racing's best meeting and they're all ante-post picks I've noted on here before.

In the Queen Anne I wanted to be against Animal Kingdom as soon as the prices came out and with Farhh sidelined my each way bet on Elusive Kate at 20/1 looks pretty much nailed on if she runs to form. It's very hard to see her out of the places. She likes fast ground, a straight track and ran well enough last year on her first run of the season. The favourite will be hard to beat in all likelihood but he's never run over a straight mile before and his turf record isn't the best. At his sort of price you want more in your favour than he has and he's easily opposed. I topped up at 10/1 when the decs were made.

The King's Stand is one of those races that I have a bad record in (I mentioned my poor record in the Oaks always tempered confidence in tackling that race a couple of weeks ago) and this contest comes under the same banner. That said I was impressed enough with Reckless Abandon's first run of the season carrying a penalty in the Temple Stakes at Haydock and was happy to take 10/1 about him for this race a day or two after that pipe opener. I confess I know little about the Australian horse who heads the market but his last two wins have come in Dubai and I feel form from their Carnival meeting in March has a tendency to be a bit overrated when it comes to translating it to the European scene. Indeed this may also apply to Animal Kingdom. Of the others in the field I'm not a big fan of the sprinting division in this country and as ever it's ripe for a new star. Reckless Abandon looks a solid bet and he's trained on. For fast 2yo's who plainly won't get a mile knowing they have improved enough over the winter to take a hand with battle hardened sprinters is a big plus. As ever my ante-post position on him has been topped up.

The bet I'm most confident of collecting on is Toronado in the St James's Palace Stakes. This animal was incredibly impressive in the Craven Stakes in April before tiring badly in the last furlong of the 2000 Guineas. That day he chased a very fast pace and paid the penalty. He actually reminds me of a horse called Roaring Forte who was one of the market leaders for the Hunt Cup three or four years ago. He played up in the stalls that day and was withdrawn at the start but I backed him next time out in the International Handicap over 7f on King George day at Ascot. A front runner, he set a fast pace in front of a big field that day and was out of his comfort zone in doing so, he got tied badly in the last furlong and ended up nearer last than first. However, at York in a handicap over a mile around a turn in August he set a much more sensible pace and won nicely. Now, Toronado is more a pace chaser than a front runner but he was taken out of his comfort zone that day at Newmarket in May in trying to stay ahead of Dawn Approach and with a smaller field and a turn to run round I expect him to return to form. The Guineas form does look suspect to me and I think Dawn Approach was just slowing down at a slower rate than his rivals and although I won't go as far as to say he won't win tomorrow like I did in my post before the Derby he is much too short given the solid opposition. Magician is a horse I respect enormously and I would normally cover on him but my initial bet on Toronado was placed at 5/1 with the feeling that there was no way he would finish out of the first three so there is no need for a second bet.

Queen Anne:
Elusive Kate £15ew @ 20/1 and £20w @ 10/1 (lost)

King's Stand:
Reckless Abandon £50w @ 8/1 (lost)

St James's Palace:
Toronado £40ew @ 9/2 (2nd)

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11/06/2013

Royal Ascot Thoughts





Just a week until the Royal meeting starts and it looks a cracking few days of racing ahead but it will be overshadowed by the death of Henry Cecil earlier today. He's been one of the greatest trainers in history and although the bad news today doesn't come as a great surprise I'm sure all fans of the sport are united in their sorrow upon his death. Frankel's enormous presence the last couple of years at least made his final years happy ones but my favourite Cecil horse was Bosra Sham, a top class filly in the mid 90s who won at the Royal meeting in 1997 in very impressive fashion. RIP Sir Henry.

I've already blogged about some of the bets I have lined up for the week and all the horses I've backed have shortened since my initial wagers have been placed mainly due to defections and injuries to other contenders.

Elsewhere, in the St James Palace on the opening day I think the price differential between Magician and Toronado is a bit too much. The former is evens and the latter 11/4. I'd be going more 6/4 and 9/4 so there could be an angle there on the day. I'm against Al Kazeem in the Prince of Wales because I don't think the short straight will suit him but I have yet to unearth an alternative selection. I'll just be happy enough for his price to drift for the Eclipse at Sandown if he is defeated a week tomorrow. And finally in the Coronation I've fervently hoping crack French filly Flotilla takes her chance here rather than the Prix de Diane at Chantilly. She was most impressive in the Pouliches when pulling clear of the field together with Esoterique (form that has been franked since) and I'm gagging to take the British fillies on with her.

EDIT 12/6:
Dawn Approach has somewhat surprisingly been confirmed as on target to run in the St James's Palace and this has shaken up the ante-post market in a massive way as you can imagine and as a consequence Toronado is very backable now at 5/1. He's a horse that is bred to stay more than a mile and the fast pace they went in the Guineas took him out of his comfort zone and he finished a very tired horse. Around a turn with a slower pace and fewer runners I expect a return to form and I'd be very surprised if he's not in the first three. It's a cliche but at that price he's an each way bet to nothing.

Queen Anne Stakes:
Elusive Kate £15ew @ 20/1

St James's Palace Stakes:
Toronado £20ew @ 5/1

King's Stand Stakes:
Reckless Abandon £25w @ 10/1  

Diamond Jubilee Stakes:
Gordon Lord Byron £15ew @ 16/1

05/06/2013

Ante-Post Update



                                         
2012 Japan Cup

I was pleased with Sky Hunter's run in the Jockey Club on Sunday. It was his first foray into Group company and for all that he hadn't the class to handle Intello he has bags of scope, especially over a longer trip and I took some 40/1 about him for the Arc on Sunday evening. As much as I like Intello I don't see him as a horse for Paris in October and I think his trainer doesn't either considering that he's going to the Marois over a mile next. He has a similar profile to Lope De Vega who ran in both the Poulains and the Jockey Club before returning to a mile en route to the Arc where he was well behind in Workforce's year. My profile picture on Twitter is of Orfevre but I'm kind of going against that horse this year with my early Arc bets. He's a touch short at around 6/1 and as well as Sky Hunter and Bravodino I have taken a small position on Gentildonna who beat last year's Arc runner-up in the Japan Cup last Autumn (albeit with no small measure of good fortune)

Elsewhere I've backed Reckless Abandon for the King's Stand on the opening day of Royal Ascot. He ran really well carrying a penalty in the Temple Stakes last time out, a run that proved he had trained on, and a 10/1 quote from Victor Chandler was just too big to ignore. The race features a short priced Aussie horse called Shea Shea and no matter how good he may or may not be it's no gimme that these crack sprinters are going to run to form when they come over here as Black Caviar showed last year.

In the Queen Anne I've taken 20/1 about Elusive Kate. A straight mile on fast ground is her optimum conditions and I'm hopeful she'll get them. The American horse Animal Kingdom is favourite and rightly so after his demolition job in Dubai but the market weakness in Farhh suggests that colt is probably headed to the Prince of Wales and so there is a fair amount of juice in the market from an each way point of view. I cannot have Declaration of War and Most Improved shorter than Gosden's Group 1 winning filly so I've stepped in. She goes well fresh after finishing second to Giofra in the Falmouth last year first time up on ground softer than ideal and if she's ready for this it's hard to see her out of the frame.

Queen Anne Stakes:
Elusive Kate £15ew @ 20/1

King's Stand Stakes:
Reckless Abandon £25w @ 10/1

Diamond Jubilee Stakes:
Gordon Lord Byron £15ew @ 16/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Gold Ship £15w @ 25/1
Bravodino £5w @ 76/1
Sky Hunter £10w @ 40/1
Gentildonna £10w @ 33/1


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King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10












02/06/2013

Chantilly - 2nd June

Have to admit to being on a bit of a downer after yesterday's big race. I was so confident Ocovango would at least get placed and had a real shot at pulling in a couple of bags for me. But he got boxed in at a vital stage and looked a bit of a non stayer truth be told. I was adamant on this blog that the favourite wouldn't win and I can't help feeling I've missed out on a golden opportunity. I backed two of the Ballydoyle contingent but missed the winner. Disappointing.

The French version at Chantilly today looks a good renewal and Andre Fabre saddles the favourite Intello who looked most unlucky from a bad draw in the Poulains but he's around 9/4 and in a race that has a host of hard luck stories every year since they reduced the distance that is quite a short price. His two runs this year have been on good ground including one at Newmarket which suggests he was brought over to find those underfoot conditions and today's ground is on the soft side. I would add that even though he was most unfortunate in the French Guineas it didn't look a high quality Group 1 with around nine horses beaten less than three lengths and I think it may pay to look beyond the beaten horses that day for this year's Jockey Club winner.

The great trainer also handles Sky Hunter who is unbeaten in three starts. He's a horse with a stouter pedigree than Ocovango and he may have been better suited to the Epsom trip so I'm curious as to why Fabre is running him today when he could have either come over here yesterday or waited for the Grand Prix de Paris in a few weeks. He has Intello for the race after all. Ultimately I can't resist an unbeaten colt from this stable at over 8/1. The race does have a habit of falling to unexposed, progressive types as well. Small saver on the place market to reflect the fact that it is a rough race with the aforementioned hard luck stories.

Prix du Jockey-Club:
Sky Hunter £40w @ 84/10 £20pl @ 2/1 (3rd)

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