Despite the chronic week I had I feel quite positive going forward this flat season.
I've always analysed the sort of bets/races/price ranges I tend to do well in and year's of experience has taught me that Group race horses between 7/2 and around 7/1 and double figure priced handicappers are where I excel. With that in mind the three selections that all could have gone in with that little bit of fortune - Toronado in the St James's Palace, Shirkapour (Tercentenary) and Ektihaam (Hardwicke) were all good bets and I think from a staking point of view I want to be increasing the level I have on these sort of animals. Last year a number of horses in this price range - Quest for Peace, Dubai Prince, Shareta, Ortensia, Sea Moon won for me. But each time my stake on these winners was around what my average bet is. That will now change.
A number of horses come out of the Royal meeting as worth following. Amongst the handicappers Cape Peron was too far back in the Britannia and looked most imposing when taken forward towards the furlong marker but didn't have a huge amount left after this move. The big mile handicap at Glorious Goodwood is a natural target but that isn't a track I think he'd run on if the ground was fast and of course it's also a massive draw race. He's also bred to stay further than a mile so long term the Cambridgeshire or the John Smith's Cup at York could be on the agenda. Stirring Ballad is more of a miler and was given a terrible ride in the Hunt Cup and still wasn't beaten that far considering the amount of ground he was asked to cover. She has an entry in the Falmouth but I'd prefer her to continue in handicaps.
In the conditions races I was really impressed with The Fugue in the Prince of Wales's. She was held up in a relatively slowly run contest and ran on really well in the straight and didn't lose any ground to Al Kazeem. I'll be backing her if she goes for the Eclipse.
Toronado and Ektihaam are also still on my radar and I have taken positions on both horses in what I hope will be their next races. The former will take issue with Dawn Approach again in the Sussex Stakes and despite the fact that barely a nose separated them at Ascot and Toronado was checked when beginning his run I'm seeing around evens for Dawn Approach and 4/1 for Toronado (admittedly on Betfair with hardly any liquidity in the market).
Ektihaam should line up in the King George for which I've taken 12/1. It will be a big step up in class but I think he's up to it and I'm not convinced by the animals ahead of him in the market. St Nicholas Abbey has ran twice in the race without winning, Cirrus Des Aigles is a 10f beast, Al Kazeem may well go for the Eclipse next which surely means he wont run at Ascot and Novellist, whilst respected after his big win at Saint-Cloud yesterday, doesn't really strike me as being as good as my selection if I'm honest.
Yesterday also saw Gold Ship winning the Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin in very taking style and my bet on him for the Arc appears not to be dead in the water despite the small matter of his not being entered. Shirkapour's fine run last week also boosted Sky Hunter's form and I have topped up on him. If they both make it to Paris in October I'll be in a fantastic position with a touch of fortune. Luck I feel that I'm due in all honesty.
Sussex Stakes:
Toronado £12w @ 7/2
King George VI and QE Stakes:
Ektihaam £20ew @ 12/1
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Gold Ship £15w @ 25/1
Sky Hunter £20w @ 45/1
Gentildonna £10w @ 33/1
Bravodino £5w @ 76/1
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King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1
Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10
World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1
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