Ante-Post Update

Bad times on the ante-post front. First off Newfangled breaks her pelvis last week at York and is later put down and then earlier today Valyra had an accident whilst exercising before a run in the Vermeille in a couple of weeks and she has also been put to sleep. Such a shame as they were both nice fillies with great futures. RIP.

Bronze Angel has an entry in the Cambridgeshire on the 29th Sept and I've opened a position on him. He's not run since June and I don't know if he'll prep for the race.

St Leger:
Great Heavens £30w @ 13/1 

Cambridgeshire: 
Bronze Angel £13w @ 30/1

Arc:
Orfevre £40w @ 15/1 
£30 lost on two NR's




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Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1

RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £35w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1



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1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1 

York - 24th Aug

Having backed Ortensia already for tomorrow's Nunthorpe I wasn't too happy to see the rain arrive today and it fair bucketed it down for a time. She has won on good to soft but her best form is on good ground or faster. On her two runs over here she actually ran better in the July Cup at Newmarket on heavy than she did at Ascot on good to soft. It's well known that some animals just don't like Ascot and her poor run there can't have been just down to the softness of the ground. I'll assess the situation when I get there as I'm at the track tomorrow and if she's 5/1 or better and the ground is no softer than good to soft I will top my £20 bet up.

My other bet will be Dubai Prince in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes over a mile and a furlong. I backed this horse last time out at Goodwood and he looked like a player in the straight but didn't stay the 12f trip that day. He's a horse with a lot of ability who has had a chequered career and I think this sort of small field Group race just below the top level is his sort of race. The favourite is a 3yo so is readily opposed and the rest look much of a muchness. I think the selection is the best horse in the race who would be shorter than he is if he hadn't disappointed last time out and as I've pointed out that run can be ignored quite easily. Like Ortensia I have backed him already and will top up at the best price I can get on course. That's on the understanding that I can get at least 9/2 though.

Nunthorpe Stakes:
Ortensia £60w @ 51/10 (won)

Strensall Stakes:
Dubai Prince £60w @ 5/1 (won)

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York - 23rd Aug

Frankel was amazing today. I was at York when Dayjur won the Nunthorpe in 1990, and I never thought I'd see another horse scorch up that straight like he did that day. It was a pleasure to behold. Even though I have a position on the race I would dearly love to see the great one go for the Arc in October. His trainer is no fan of the contest however so it probably won't happen.

Thursday's card has a couple of really interesting Group races for the fairer sex and I'll be hoping for a good run from Newfangled in the Lowther. I was happy to take 16/1 about her for next year's 1000 Guineas after her win at Royal Ascot and a similar result tomorrow would see her go quite short for next May's race.

My only bet of the day is on Shareta in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks. This French trained filly is a fast ground animal who loved the conditions she faced in last year's Arc where she was a fantastic runner-up despite being a pacemaker. That run was a big step up on all known form but it was the first time she'd had her ground in a big race. This year she's run twice and not won but under foot conditions were soft on both occasions. The good to firm ground will really suit her and at around 4.7 on Betfair I think she's a good value bet. I'm not in love with our 3yo fillies this year and I think 7/4 about The Fugue is poor. She won the Nassau Stakes nicely enough last time out but I thought it was an average renewal of the race and for me she's overrated. The fact remains that Shareta owns the single best piece of form on offer in the race and yet is nowhere near being the market leader.

EDIT: I've been at work since before five and have given the card a good going over and unearthed a bet in the handicap at at 3.05. Anderiego is a course and distance winner twice this year and each time he's taken the lead at around the furlong pole and won reasonably comfortably on both occasions. He looks like he could still be ahead of the handicapper although it is a tougher ask today. He's worth a bet at 10/1

Yorkshire Oaks:
Shareta £60w @ 37/10 (won)

Betfair, Don't settle for less Handicap:
Anderiego £40w @ 10/1 (lost)

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York - 22nd Aug

I'm in horrible form at the moment but the Ebor meeting looks a stormer this year so I'm just gonna punt away and hope for the best.

Frankel's first race beyond a mile is the highlight of the day obviously and he should win but this is a real test for him. He's beaten better horses than he faces tomorrow but not over this trip. His jockey will have to hold on to him for longer over a slower pace than he gets over a mile and hope he doesn't tire towards the end of the race. St Nicholas Abbey is a horse I've opposed a few times but he's one of those creatures who needs his conditions to shine - and a left handed track with a long straight is perfect for him. I don't really think he'll beat Frankel but Bet365 are going 6/1 at a quarter the odds the first three and I cannot have him being unplaced. I really do believe he will love this track and 12f animals have a great record in the race. Derby winner Roberto beat Brigadier Gerard  and I was on Singspiel when he torched Bosra Sham as well. Whatever happens it is a mouth watering prospect.

My other bets are in the mile and a quarter handicap that closes the card. When assessing handicappers I like ones that take the lead late on in the race and don't win by too far. This masks their superiority and keeps the assessor from hiking him too far up the ratings. Last time out at Ascot over 10f the Mark Johnson trained Hajras had these in running comments - "Slowly into stride, held up in last pair, edged right over 2f out, headway on outside over 1f out, hung right and chased leader 1f out, stayed on well to lead last 50yds, won going away". Pretty much exactly what I look for. This race tomorrow looks a relatively hot looking handicap and actually the market leader, Sir John Hackwood, is also the sort of animal that I'm looking for in this type of event. Last time out at Newmarket he led further out than Hajras did in his race and was eased near the finish. That looks quite eye catching and can lead to a bigger jump in the handicap but they were both raised six pounds for their respective successes. The big difference between the pair tomorrow though is the prices. Hajras is available at a little over 7/1 and the favourite is 7/2. They're both backable but the bigger priced horse has to be the main bet.

Finally, I've taken some 11/2 about Australian mare Ortensia in the Nunthorpe on Friday. She was most impressive last time out at Goodwood when winning a Group 3 with a 7lb penalty. She's looked all at sea in her other races this season on soft ground but the dry spell some of us are having is really suiting her. I think she'll take a hell of a lot of beating if conditions remain fast and I'll be in attendance on the day cheering her on.

International Stakes:
St Nicholas Abbey £30ew @ 6/1 (3rd)

Talk to Victor Handicap Stakes:
Hajras £50w @ 72/10 (lost)
Sir John Hackwood £25w @ 7/2 (lost)

Friday:
Nunthorpe Stakes:
Ortensia £20w @ 11/2

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Deauville - 19th Aug

Another bad day at the office yesterday. I fancied Brown Panther very strongly but he was just outclassed and outstayed by Mount Athos.

The horse I'm backing today, Giofra in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet, is one of my relatively few decent winning bets this season. She was way overpriced in the Falmouth and I expect the conditions she faces today - 10f on good ground - to really suit her. She needs further than a mile and her win at Newmarket was on rain softened ground. Elusive Kate has really franked that form since as well. Of her opponents today Galikova is respected but with little give in the ground I think this trip is a bit short for her. Snow Fairy makes her seasonal debut and history shows she needs at least one run to get going. Izzi Top has run well all year apart from last time out where she ran in the Nassau on good ground over this trip. I think she needs softer conditions in Group 1 company.
Ultimately I think Giofra has possibly the best form going into this race and just as importantly she's the one horse in the race who is suited to every part of the conditions of this particular contest. Ground, trip and recent form are all massive ticks in the box for her. It really would be nice to get one in the win column before next weeks Ebor Festival.

Prix Jean Romanet:
Giofra £60w @ 3/1 (lost)

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Newbury - 18th Aug

We have a strange looking market for the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury tomorrow. Mount Athos is a nice horse who seems to have improved this year and was impressive last time out in a handicap at York, but most bookies are making him favourite for the race ahead of the likes of  Brown Panther, who was beaten by just 4L in the King George last month, and St Leger winner Masked Marvel. The latter has been a tad disappointing this season but this is his first run over more than 12f, and the Leger showed that he really appreciates a trip. I fancy Brown Panther more though. His run at Ascot was a very nice effort and I think he's progressed this year. He was second at Doncaster last September but Masked Marvel kind of got first run and didn't put any lengths into him in the last couple of furlongs of that race. He was also runner-up in this race last year. When I aim to back two horses for a race I do like to err on having more or at least the same amount on the bigger priced of the pair but I do prefer Brown Panther for this contest. Mount Athos makes the race from a punting point of view however and I'll be happy if either win.

Geoffrey Freer Stakes:
Brown Panther £55w @ 27/10 (lost)
Masked Marvel £35w @ 5/1 (lost)

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Ante-Post Update

As bad as it's been this flat season traditionally the last couple of months or so are usually quite profitable for me and I expect some nice winners in that period. My biggest success last year was Cirrus Des Aigles in October.

I feel I have a good position in the Arc and I'm really pleased to see that Irish Oaks winner Great Heavens is not in the Yorkshire Oaks next week as I really fancy her for the S Leger. She's bred to stay further than a mile and a half and with cut in the ground at Doncaster I think she'll really give Camelot a huge question to answer. It should not be forgotten that Shergar got beat in a Leger.

Britannia third Bronze Angel remains at the top of my horses to follow list. I'm hoping his trainer has the Cambridgeshire in mind for him but I have to be patient and wait for him to come out again. He was actually in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes tomorrow at Salisbury until the 48hr Decs came out. I do not want a nice run in a conditions race ruining his handicap mark.

I'm going to York next Friday and I like the look of Ortensia who was most taking at Goodwood. But she's a mare who likes it fast under foot and I won't be backing her until the day given our dodgy weather at the moment.

A word on my Cheltenham bets. I have three I really fancy for Festival races next year (more will be written about them come the Jumps season) and my staking plan is just to throw fivers at them when I have a winner.


St Leger:
Great Heavens £25w @ 10/1

Arc:
Beauty Parlour £15w @ 15/1
Orfevre £15w @ 18/1
Valyra £20w @ 165/10



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Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £30w @ 13/1

RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £30w @ 113/10

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1



-----------------------
1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1 

Haydock and Deauville - 11th/12th Aug

Shergar Cup day is usually one of the most boring Saturdays of the season but we have a half decent card at Haydock and a horse I've backed a few times in the past, Ransom Note, is worth a bet in the Rose of Lancaster Stakes over a mile and a quarter. I do think this horse is slightly better over a mile but last time out he ran respectably enough at York in a similar race that was run at a good clip. That race had nine runners but tomorrow's contest features just five and Ransom Note is the only one who has previous with regards to pace setting. I think his mile speed will be of considerable advantage in this race given that he will probably be asked to set a pace that suits him. Jet Away finished a length in front of him at York but is around 7/4 whereas my selection is just over 4/1. That's a price differential that is just too large. Gabrial could be a danger but I really don't rate the 3yo's this year so am happy to be against him and the Godolphin horse doesn't look up to winning at this level.

On Sunday Deauville hosts it's biggest race of the year, the Prix Jacques Le Marois. It looks a good renewal with Frankel's punchbag Excelebration heading the market at 2/1 with Paddy Power. The only bookmaker so far to have priced the race up. He's a top notcher and his odds are fair enough but there are a couple of horses who are a bit short for this that make the race from a punting angle. Moonlight Cloud is a cracking filly but I'm not convinced she'll stay in this company and she has never won over a mile and 5/2 is frankly ridiculous. I like Golden Lilac who was second to Elusive Kate (13/2)  over course and distance last time out in a race where the latter set a steady tempo. In this stronger contest which is bound to be run at a good clip I think the Fabre filly has excellent claims of reversing that form. At 10/1 I think she's a cracking each way poke.Coronation Stakes winner Fallen for You and last year's winner Immortal Verse (behind my selection last time out but badly needing the race) also have claims. Betfair haven't opened a market on the race yet but when they do I'll be interested in the latter's price in the place market.


Rose of Lancaster Stakes:
Ransom Note £60w @ 43/10 (lost)

Prix Jacques le Marois:
Golden Lilac £30ew @ 10/1 (lost)

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Goodwood - 4th Aug

The Nassau Stakes that is the highlight of Saturday's card (whatever the hype merchants say about the Stewards Cup) looks a decent enough renewal and I like the chances of the Roger Varian trained Nahrain at around 4/1. She looked a filly of some promise last year and won the Prix de l'Opera at the Arc meeting. She only just held on in that contest but had to overcome a little bit of trouble in running and for me she was better than the are result. She still has scope to progress and this is her first proper challenge of the year after looking to need the run on tacky ground at the Royal meeting. The Gosden trained duo Izzi Top and The Fugue look her main dangers and with the stable jockey choosing the former she is quite a short price at 15/8. I'm not convinced about the British 3yo fillies this year and and I think The Fugue is someway behind Great Heavens in the Gosden pecking order. She doesn't strike me as Group 1 class. Ultimately I think this is a two horse race and I'm going with Nahrain simply because the price differential is a bit too big.

Nassau Stakes:
Nahrain £60w @ 45/10 (lost)


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Goodwood - 3rd Aug

Well, Mr Dettori did me again today. He had Colour Vision too far back and so when his move was made he had to use too much energy just to get in touch.

Onto Friday's bets and in the first race we have a Group 3 over a mile and a half. It's a race with a great punting shape as the favourite, Gatewood, is a horse who is stepping up from handicaps. He's won all of them well but the gap between the races he's won and Group contests is hardest to bridge at the 10/12f trip. Quest for Peace owns the single best piece of form on offer when winning the Cumberland Lodge at Ascot last year and he ran really well in the Jockey Club stakes first time out. He's not been in the same form the last two times he's run but he was stepping up in class both times and this level is where he has scored in the past. I like Dubai Prince as well. He's a fragile creature but has a bit of class about him and at 11/2 I think he's a touch of value for the race also. He beat a good yardstick in Fury last time out in an admittedly muddling race and I think his chance in the race is the equal of the other Godolphin animal Songcraft, who seems to be two points shorter because Dettori may have chosen him. That doesn't bother me as he always seems to ride the Suroor representative when both he and Al Zarooni (Dubai Princes's trainer) have runners in the same race.

The Betfred Mile was going to contain my main bet of the meeting as I was very keen on Bronze Angel but unfortunately that 3yo didn't make the cut. I'm not happy about this as in terms of actual ratings he would have made it but they take the weight-for-age off when assessing the weights. This means a good class 3yo who ran a cracker in a huge handicap at the Royal meeting doesn't get in whilst out of form plodders who take an age to slide down the handicap (I'm looking at horse's like Mabait here) do. Anyway, this race has a huge draw bias and the favourite has already been pulled out because of his high drawer (trainer may have given a different reason) and I have backed Captain Bertie who has been given the 6 stall. I had him in the Hunt Cup where a searching gallop over a stiff mile may have been too much but he ran well in the Bunbury Cup next time out over 7f and this easy mile coupled with a good draw means he's well worth a go at 11/1.
I'm running bad at the moment so stakes have been dropped slightly.

Glorious Stakes:
Quest for Peace £50w @ 58/10 (won)
Dubai Prince £40w @ 56/10 (lost)

Betfred Mile:
Bronze Angel £25w @ 168/10 (Money back as horse was balloted out)
Captain Bertie £40w @ 11/1 (lost)


(902)

Goodwood - 2nd Aug

Awesome again from Frankel today and I can't wait to see him over further at York. Frankie didn't ride Farhh all the way to the line which cost me money but hopefully he'll be more forceful on Colour Vision in the  Goodwood Cup tomorrow. He's actually second favourite for the race behind a horse he beat at Ascot because he gives Saddlers Rock four pounds. I always favour the horse that had his head in front in these scenarios and interestingly Olympic Glory won the Vintage Stakes today under a similar penalty and against an animal he had already beaten. Saddlers Rock is respected but he carries his head a bit high and I'm not sure the faster ground on this undulating track will totally suit him. The Willie Mullins trained Simenon looks the other danger but he's taking a step up in class and 4/1 about him is very skinny.

Goodwood Cup:
Colour Vision £70w @ 3/1 (lost)


(-1100)

Goodwood - 1st Aug

I didn't think they'd be a bet today with Frankel in the Sussex and the other main contest a 2yo race. But Hills have priced up the Group 1 at 11/4 the field with Frankel giving 8L to Farhh, 13L to Gabrial and 15L to his pacemaker Bullet Train. Frankie has made ricks when riding against the great one before. On Casamento in the 2000 Guineas and Worthadd in the Queen Anne he was too close early on and paid the price later in the race. On a horse such as Farhh who stays 10f I expect him to be anchored at the back with a view to a late surge. I'd be surprised if Frankel destroys him as I think a wide margin success isn't as likely on this track (don't forget he beat Canford Cliffs by 5L last year despite that horse trying to go with him when Tom put the hammer down) so for me the only question is can Farhh beat Gabrial by more than 5 and Bullet Train by 7. Well, the ratings differential between the Godolphin horse and Gabrial is actually greater than it is between Frankel and Farhh. Gabrial was beaten well in a piss poor renewal of the St James Palace at the Royal meeting, the form of which was hardly advanced by Foxtrot Romeo yesterday and so I think Farhh's late run will be telling in seeing him off. The pacemaker hopefully will be tailed off. I've also had a tenner on Farhh outright at big odds on the machine. Excelebration started at 5/1, 100/30 and 6/1 in his last three defeats against Frankel. Farhh is nearly 19/1 and that's too big.

Sussex Stakes
Farhh in special handicap £30w @ 11/4 (lost)
Farhh £10w @ 185/10 (lost)


(-1030)