01/08/2012

Goodwood - 1st Aug

I didn't think they'd be a bet today with Frankel in the Sussex and the other main contest a 2yo race. But Hills have priced up the Group 1 at 11/4 the field with Frankel giving 8L to Farhh, 13L to Gabrial and 15L to his pacemaker Bullet Train. Frankie has made ricks when riding against the great one before. On Casamento in the 2000 Guineas and Worthadd in the Queen Anne he was too close early on and paid the price later in the race. On a horse such as Farhh who stays 10f I expect him to be anchored at the back with a view to a late surge. I'd be surprised if Frankel destroys him as I think a wide margin success isn't as likely on this track (don't forget he beat Canford Cliffs by 5L last year despite that horse trying to go with him when Tom put the hammer down) so for me the only question is can Farhh beat Gabrial by more than 5 and Bullet Train by 7. Well, the ratings differential between the Godolphin horse and Gabrial is actually greater than it is between Frankel and Farhh. Gabrial was beaten well in a piss poor renewal of the St James Palace at the Royal meeting, the form of which was hardly advanced by Foxtrot Romeo yesterday and so I think Farhh's late run will be telling in seeing him off. The pacemaker hopefully will be tailed off. I've also had a tenner on Farhh outright at big odds on the machine. Excelebration started at 5/1, 100/30 and 6/1 in his last three defeats against Frankel. Farhh is nearly 19/1 and that's too big.

Sussex Stakes
Farhh in special handicap £30w @ 11/4 (lost)
Farhh £10w @ 185/10 (lost)


(-1030)

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