York - 22nd Aug

I'm in horrible form at the moment but the Ebor meeting looks a stormer this year so I'm just gonna punt away and hope for the best.

Frankel's first race beyond a mile is the highlight of the day obviously and he should win but this is a real test for him. He's beaten better horses than he faces tomorrow but not over this trip. His jockey will have to hold on to him for longer over a slower pace than he gets over a mile and hope he doesn't tire towards the end of the race. St Nicholas Abbey is a horse I've opposed a few times but he's one of those creatures who needs his conditions to shine - and a left handed track with a long straight is perfect for him. I don't really think he'll beat Frankel but Bet365 are going 6/1 at a quarter the odds the first three and I cannot have him being unplaced. I really do believe he will love this track and 12f animals have a great record in the race. Derby winner Roberto beat Brigadier Gerard  and I was on Singspiel when he torched Bosra Sham as well. Whatever happens it is a mouth watering prospect.

My other bets are in the mile and a quarter handicap that closes the card. When assessing handicappers I like ones that take the lead late on in the race and don't win by too far. This masks their superiority and keeps the assessor from hiking him too far up the ratings. Last time out at Ascot over 10f the Mark Johnson trained Hajras had these in running comments - "Slowly into stride, held up in last pair, edged right over 2f out, headway on outside over 1f out, hung right and chased leader 1f out, stayed on well to lead last 50yds, won going away". Pretty much exactly what I look for. This race tomorrow looks a relatively hot looking handicap and actually the market leader, Sir John Hackwood, is also the sort of animal that I'm looking for in this type of event. Last time out at Newmarket he led further out than Hajras did in his race and was eased near the finish. That looks quite eye catching and can lead to a bigger jump in the handicap but they were both raised six pounds for their respective successes. The big difference between the pair tomorrow though is the prices. Hajras is available at a little over 7/1 and the favourite is 7/2. They're both backable but the bigger priced horse has to be the main bet.

Finally, I've taken some 11/2 about Australian mare Ortensia in the Nunthorpe on Friday. She was most impressive last time out at Goodwood when winning a Group 3 with a 7lb penalty. She's looked all at sea in her other races this season on soft ground but the dry spell some of us are having is really suiting her. I think she'll take a hell of a lot of beating if conditions remain fast and I'll be in attendance on the day cheering her on.

International Stakes:
St Nicholas Abbey £30ew @ 6/1 (3rd)

Talk to Victor Handicap Stakes:
Hajras £50w @ 72/10 (lost)
Sir John Hackwood £25w @ 7/2 (lost)

Friday:
Nunthorpe Stakes:
Ortensia £20w @ 11/2

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