Newbury - 31st Dec

At Newbury today we have a fascinating four runner novice chase over 2m3f in which Cue Card takes on Walkon and For Non Stop. I've backed all three of these animals in one race or another in the past and today I favour the Nick Williams horse. He ran really well behind Al Ferof last time out over 2m at Sandown and I think this trip will really suit him. The likely testing ground is against Cue Card and I think Walkon's form has been a tad overrated for all that he has scope over fences. My selection wasn't as good a hurdler as his two rivals today but he stayed further than either and I think he'll be stronger in the finish today given the ground and the seven pounds he gets from them both. Stakes have been reduced for the time being as I am out of form.

For Non Stop £40w @ 11/4 (lost)


(-773)

Ante-Post Update

It's been a fascinating few days racing and an update is due on my ante-post list. Sprinter Sacre was breathtaking in beating Peddlers Cross the other day and I managed to top up at 3/1 before he went into 5/2 for the Arkle. 

Captain Chris ran a good race in the King George despite being out the back in a relatively slowly run race and on a course that won't suit him as well as Cheltenham does. I've taken a slice of the 33/1 Ladbrokes went about him for the Gold Cup after the race. He isn't guaranteed to be aimed the race but with Wishfull Thinking (same connections) patently needing further than the two miles he's running over his last couple of starts, I think it makes sense to aim that horse at the Ryanair and take in the Gold Cup with Chris. I wouldn't fancy him too strongly against Long Run but he'll be backed in the place market nearer the race.

In Ireland today Hidden Cyclone was impressive in his first start over fences which bodes well for the price I have on him for the RSA.

Supreme:

Simonsig £20w @ 14/1

Arkle:

Sprinter Sacre £120w @ 6/1

Champion Hurdle:

Oscar Whisky £10w @ 33/1

Baring Bingham:
Simonsig £12w @ 16/1

RSA:

Hidden Cyclone £10w @ 29/1

Champion Chase:

Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:

Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 40/1

Ryanair:

Medermit £15w @ 20/1
Rubi Light £10w @ 86/10

Spa Hurdle:

Mount Benbulben £20w @ 13/1

Gold Cup:

Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1

Denman £10w @ 28/1

Captain Chris £10w @ 33/1

Leopardstown - Dec 28th

First things first, Sprinter Sacre once again sent shivers down my spine with his jumping and athleticism earlier today and my Arkle position is kind of my one bright spot in a Jumps season so far full of mud. I managed to top up at 3/1 on Betfair before Donald McCain indicated they may step up in trip with Peddlers Cross and as it stands I have 720/120, a nice lump on at 6/1. A bet to keep one warm throughout the coldest of winters.
Anyway, I'm off to Ireland tomorrow for Lexus day and even though Denman no longer runs it still looks a fine card. In the big race I intend backing Rubi Light on course. This animal was most impressive when easily accounting for Joncol (who re-opposes) over two and half miles last time out and although the three miles tomorrow is a step into the unknown, I think the ground (good to yielding rather than the bog it can be this time of year) will help him stay. Market leader Quito de la Roque is a dour stayer and I think my selection will just have too much speed for him. In summary, Rubi Light is in terrific form, still on the upgrade and is for me the likeliest winner of the race.
Rubi Light £60w on course at best price available (5/2 minimum) (lost)


(-723)

Kempton & Leopardstown - Dec 27th

As uplifting as it was to see the great horse win his fifth King George earlier this afternoon I had another poor day and confidence wise I'm on my knees at the moment. It's at times like these when you doubt every selection you come up with but you have to keep plugging on as missing out on a winner is a lot worse than any losing wager.

In the Paddy Power Chase in Ireland I think the bookies have put in Golden Silver at way too big a price. Big Zeb is a top class opponent and is justifiably trading at short odds but Mullins horse has beaten him in the past and is surely a far bigger danger than Noble Prince, a horse who surely needs two and a half miles to be seen to best effect. First time out at Cork Golden Silver didn't jump that well and was very fortunate to win when Osirixamix crashed out at the last when clear. However, my selection is nearly ten years old now and surely his trainer wouldn't have had him in prime condition for such a relatively minor race, albeit one he had won a couple of times in the past. Ultimately his overall form suggests he can give Big Zeb a contest tomorrow and 11/2 is a more than fair price.

Over at Kempton my Arkle fancy Sprinter Sacre takes on Peddlers Cross in a terrific looking Novice Chase and whilst it's a very exciting match up I would rather they left it for March. My original plan was to top up throughout the new year and have a £200+ bet on Henderson's animal but if he wins as I expect him to tomorrow those odds will be pie in the sky. As it is Peddlers Cross is favoured by the layers for tomorrow's clash but Sprinter Sacre is potentially the most exciting chaser I've seen since Denman came on the scene and he's worth a small wager at 6/4.

Golden Silver £60w @ 11/2 (fell) 

Sprinter Sacre £40w @ 6/4 (won)


(-673)

Kempton - Dec 26th

Boxing Day Kempton is always my favourite thing about Christmas and tomorrow's card does not disappoint.

In the big race I am very keen on Captain Chris. This horse won the Arkle at Cheltenham back in March despite being outpaced at stages and has been crying out for this sort of trip. Long Run will be a tough nut to crack of course and I have saved on him. What makes my selection such a strong bet is the presence of Kauto Star and Master Minded in the race. I give neither of them much hope - the former was trained for his historic win at Haydock the other week and will not have a fitness advantage this time. The latter has little hope of staying. To me it looked like he was fading at Ascot last time and I just can't see him being anywhere near strong enough near the finish here over three miles. Captain Chris has always looked like he was crying out for a trip and I just don't think you could ever say that about Master Minded.


I've also backed Bob's Worth in the Feltham. I'm surprised there is such a disparity in prices between that horse and Grands Crus as they look to have similar chances to my eyes. My selection ran well over an inadequate trip first time out when needing the run and this trip will really suit him. Grands Crus does look a fine chaser in the making but at the odds it's a no brainer really. 


Captain Chris £70w @ 9/1  (lost)
Long Run & Peddlers Cross (Arkle) £40w double @ 11/8 and 7/2. (lost)


Bob's Worth £60w @ 11/4. (lost)


(-670)

Ascot - 17th Dec

A decent enough card at Ascot today with just the one bet. Reve De Sivola is a horse I've backed numerous times and although he disappointed last time out at Cheltenham I'm prepared to give him another chance today. He actually jumped well for him that day but didn't stay the trip (today's contest is four furlongs shorter) and with Hennessy winner Carruthers nine lengths in front of him it has to be said that the form has been franked. He certainly has claims on that form especially with a drop to a mark of 139 and with The Minack (the usual falsely priced Nicholls horse) being a poor value favourite I think the 6.4 I've taken on Betfair is a fair price. Confidence isn't that high about a horse that doesn't win that often hence a reduction in stake size.

Reve De Sivola £25w @ 54/10 (lost)


(-500)

Ante-Post Update

Sprinter Sacre is a horse I wanted to back for the Arkle as soon as the Supreme was over last March. He just looked like a big, strapping chasing type and the best prospect from a high class renewal of the traditional festival opener. Well, he had his first start over fences last Friday and although the opposition were no great shakes he put in a lovely round of fast, accurate jumping and I have topped up my position.

Medermit's honourable defeat in the big race on Saturday hurt a lot at the time, but as I expected the step up to 2m5f really brought about improvement on his previous form this season and I make him a decent bet at this stage for the Ryanair Chase, run over the same trip. It's a race that's tough to punt on at this stage with it not being the confirmed target for a lot of horses, but I can't see a viable alternative for Medermit.

Lastly,doubts have been raised re Captain Chris being ready in time for the King George have suffered the equivalent of a human head cold a couple of weeks ago but I don't buy that as a reason for not getting him fit for Boxing Day. He has drifted slightly on Betfair so a little topping up is in order. Long Run is by far the likeliest winner of the race but I consider my selection his main danger. I have backed Henderson's animal in a double with Peddlers Cross for the Arkle. That animal is Sprinter Sacre's main danger in that race.

King George:

Captain Chris £40w @ 10/1
Long Run and Peddlers Cross (Arkle) £40w double @ 11/8 and 7/2

---------------------------

Supreme:

Simonsig £20w @ 14/1

Arkle:

Sprinter Sacre £60w @ 91/10

Champion Hurdle:

Oscar Whisky £10w @ 33/1

Baring Bingham:
Simonsig £12w @ 16/1

RSA:

Hidden Cyclone £10w @ 29/1

Champion Chase:

Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:

Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 40/1

Ryanair:

Medermit £15w @ 20/1

Spa Hurdle:

Mount Benbulben £20w @ 13/1

Gold Cup:

Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1

Denman £10w @ 28/1

Cheltenham - Dec 10th

Good and bad news as I write this on the Friday. Denman, my favourite horse of all time is retired just before he reaches 12. I'd like to add my tribute to The Tank, he was a monster of a horse at his best and I'll never forget the awesome display of steeplechasing power he used to dismantle Kauto Star in the '08 Gold Cup. On a more positive note, my Arkle fancy Sprinter Sacre put in an exciting round of fast, accurate jumping in his chasing debut at Doncaster earlier this afternoon and I retain the belief that this horse is going to the top.

As for Saturday's action, I've already posted my thoughts on Medermit's chances in the big handicap and the only thing to add is that I've placed a little bet in the place market to go with my win bet.

Medermit £40w @ 14/1 and £20pl @ 5/2 (2nd)


(-475)

December Gold Cup - Cheltenham 10th Dec

The highlight of Saturday's card at headquarters is the big handicap chase over 2m5f. In this the Alan King trained Medermit catches my eye at 14/1. This horse ran really well for a long way before finishing third behind Master Minded and Somersby last time out at Ascot. That was a run over an inadequate trip on good ground in my opinion. Indeed, his best run as a novice last season was over Saturday's trip at Sandown back in February when he beat the subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris. Most of the horses towards the front of the market were placed in the Paddy Power last month but I remain unconvinced of the value of that form. I'm happy to take them on with my selection.

Medermit £40w @ 14/1

Ante-Post Update

The most interesting race from a Cheltenham point of view this week was the Grade 2 novice hurdle at Sandown at Friday. This featured a nice dual between Fingal Bay and Simonsig. The former, a more experienced animal, prevailed but Simonsig ran a cracker after travelling like the winner and has got to be interesting if brought back in trip. I'e taken 14s about him for the Supreme.
Today in Ireland Mikael D'Haguenet finally got back to winning ways when cheekily winning a minor race over two miles at Fairyhouse. He's a horse I've backed a number of times in the past and I remain hopeful he can make it back to the top. He's worth a small investment for the World Hurdle at a big price.

King George:

Captain Chris £30w @ 9/1

---------------------------

Supreme:

Simonsig £20w @ 14/1

Arkle:

Sprinter Sacre £40w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:

Oscar Whisky £10w @ 33/1

RSA:

Hidden Cyclone £10w @ 29/1

Champion Chase:

Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:

Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 40/1

Spa Hurdle:

Mount Benbulben £15w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:

Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1

Denman £10w @ 28/1

Sandown and Aintree - 3rd Dec

Since posting my thoughts earlier in the week about the Tingle Creek the race has cut up big time with Tataniano and Finian's Rainbow being pulled out. This leaves me in an excellent position with 11/4 about Sizing Europe who is around a 6/4 shot now. Wishfull Thinking seems the only really danger (especially with the ground softening up) so I think it's wise to cover on him.

At Aintree the 2.10 is the Becher Chase over the National fences. Nick Williams runs Shalimar Fromentro and whilst as a 5yo this is a big ask he has bits and pieces of really nice form, including running the smart Wymott close last year in a novice chase as a 4yo at Exeter. With a couple of recent runs to his credit it's safe to assume that he'll be fit for this so I think he warrants an each way bet at 10/1.

Sizing Europe £50w @ 11/4 (won)
Wishfull Thinking £30w @ 32/10 (lost)

Shalimar Fromentro £25ew @ 10/1 (fell)


(-482)

Tingle Creek

Big two mile chase at Sandown on Saturday and Boylesports have priced the race up like this:
Sizing Europe 11/4
Finian's Rainbow 3/1
Tataniano 10/3
Wishfull Thinking 9/2
Kauto Stone 7

Sizing Europe, the current two mile champion, is a big price here and I've taken it. Their seems to be a feeling that he's a spring horse despite the fact that his best hurdling form was in the winter time. He's a cracking jumper who will be very hard to beat if he gets into a nice rhythm. The form of the others is some way behind what he has achieved and sometimes you just have to punt the best horse in the race.

Sizing Europe £50w @ 11/4

Ante-Post Update

Wayward Prince's dismal run on Saturday extends my poor start to the season and it looks like I'm gonna need a stellar Cheltenham Festival to have any sort of decent green figure come the end of the campaign.

Only a month to the King George now and it's looking like Captain Chris and Finian's Rainbow are the last hope for last season's novice chasers. The former I have backed already for Kempton and I still believe he is the main danger to Long Run. Kauto Star will not have a fitness advantage this time and Master Minded is an unlikely stayer.

As for Cheltenham, I have backed Oscar Whisky for the Champion Hurdle just in case he is aimed at that race if anything happens to Hurricane Fly - a great hurdler but one who has missed a couple of Festivals in the past. 

Yesterday at Navan Mount Benbulben was impressive in winning a Grade 2 novice hurdle despite the runner-up having the run of the race. He looks a thorough stayer and I think the Spa Hurdle over 3 miles on the Friday will be his target. I've taken 14/1.
Finally, with the second season staying chasers looking a ropey looking bunch thus far (Captain Chris the possible exception when he's stepped up) I can't resist having a sneaky tenner on Denman for the Gold Cup at a big price.

King George:

Captain Chris £30w @ 9/1

---------------------------

Arkle:

Sprinter Sacre £40w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:

Oscar Whisky £10w @ 33/1

RSA:

Hidden Cyclone £10w @ 29/1

Champion Chase:

Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

Spa:

Mount Benbulben £15w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:

Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1

Denman £10w @ 28/1

Hennessy Gold Cup

The big race tomorrow doesn't look like it will take nearly as much winning as when the mighty Denman was taking part but it's an interesting race nonetheless. I have to say I'm hurting at the moment. After a sublime 2010/11 Jumps Season I'm off to one of the worst starts in my punting career and I could do with a decent winner just to get the blood flowing again. My selection for this race is Wayward Prince. I have backed him ante-post and have topped up today. He's a second season chaser who has a lot of scope in terms of likely improvement once he takes in a trip. In the RSA Chase at the Festival back in March he was being ridden some way out but stayed on really well to get third. That race was over three miles on good ground and although under foot condittions are likely to be similar tomorrow I think the extra distance will really see this animal come into his own. I've read a lot recently about how the novice chasers from last year aren't up to much and whilst I can see that as a viable point of view, Time for Rupert and Wishfull Thinking especially looking a bit disappointing, I think it's a bit too early to be writing them off as a bunch. In horses like Wayward Prince and Captain Chris we have chasers who will surely improve when their stamina is stretched. I still really like the latter for the King George despite the efforts of Kauto Star (what a hero that horse is) and Master Minded last week - and the former is off a nice racing weight tomorrow (10st8) and is surely a lively contender in an average looking renewal.

Wayward Prince £50w @ 10/1 (PU)


(-540)

Haydock and Ascot - Nov 19th

The Betfair Chase is the big race of the day and Long Run may have his hands full first time out taking on Diamond Harry and Time for Rupert. I'm siding with the former for this race as he goes well fresh and loves the track. I do think Long Run is worth taking on at a short price. I remain unconvinced about the Gold Cup form given that he beat two 11yo's and he got beat first time out last year in a handicap. Naturally as my Gold Cup selection I hope Rupert runs well and I wouldn't be unhappy if he won.

Elsewhere at Ascot even without Captain Chris the Amlin Chase at 2.10 is a cracking renewal with Master Minded taking on Medermit and Somersby. I've got a lot of time for the latter who ran well first time out and almost beat Paul Nicholls charge at this track last season. He's four pounds better off today and I think he has claims of overturning that form. Master Minded was well below par at Aintree on his first run of the season and although that wasn't anywhere near his true form I didn't think it was a good sign for his future. I saw him in the paddock that day and it's not as if it was obvious he badly needed the run. Medermit is a danger but I think he was flattered at Exeter when winning the Haldon Gold Cup and I'm not convinced he's top draw.

Diamond Harry £60w @ 7/1 (lost)
Long Run Laid @ 6/1 for £20 (won)

Somersby £60w @ 9/4 (lost)


(-490)

Ante-Post Update

I'm looking forward to the Betfair Chase on Saturday where I'm hopeful Diamond Harry can win first time out yet again. As good as Long Run is I think he's vulnerable first time out and I'm not sure, as I've pointed out before, of the true worth of the Gold Cup form.

Speaking of Harry, the Hennessy is only a couple of weeks away and I like Wayward Prince for this contest. He's a thorough stayer who plugged on like a proper horse to be third over an inadequate three miles in the RSA Chase at the Festival. He gets in here off 150 and is attractively priced at 12/1. Second season chasers are the animals you want to be with in this race and if there is cut in the ground the selection will be a formidable opponent over the longest trip he will have encountered thus far in his young career

Betfair Chase:
Diamond Harry £30w @ 85/10

Kauto Star Laid @ 6/1 for £20

Hennessy:

Wayward Prince £30w @ 12/1

King George:
Captain Chris £25w @ 95/10

----------------
Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £40w @ 11/1

RSA:
Hidden Cyclone £10w @ 29/1

Champion Chase:
Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1
Denman £10w @ 28/1

Open Meeting - Day 2

Onto Paddy Power day and I have two bets lined up for today. In the big race I have been backing Mon Parrain for a couple of weeks. This horse is a spectacular jumper of a fence and I fell that attribute will stand him in good stead around Cheltenham where economy at an obstacle is key. I've posted more thoughts on this race in my ante-post updates. I also have a non runner in this contest.

In the Handicap Chase at 1.55 I can't resist a smallish bet on Reve De Sivola. This horse is an old favourite of mine who hasn't really gone on to be the star chaser I hoped he would be. But he ran well here at the Festival and I think 10/1 is a very fair price considering he's off a similar mark today.

Mon Parrain £50w @ 66/10 (lost)
Noble Prince £30w @ 12/1 (NR)

Reve De Sivola £25w @ 10/1 and £15pl @ 5/2 (lost)


(-250)

Open Meeting - Day 1

I really like Cue Card in the Novice Chase at 4.05. I posted my reasons for backing this exciting chaser a day or two ago. I was wise taking the 2/1 that VC put up as he is in to 6/4 now. Big chance. Zaynar makes another appearance for new trainer Nick Williams in the same race and whilst I can't fancy him to win given Cue Card's presence I've lumped him in a straight forecast with my selection.

Cue Card £40w @ 2/1 (UR)
Cue Card/Zaynar £10 S/F @ 19/1

(-130)

Open Meeting Thoughts

Really looking forward to Cheltenham's first proper meeting of the year (whole week actually taken off work.) I've already posted my thoughts on Mon Parrain's chance in the Paddy Power. He's a fantastic jumper who I think will be well suited to the course. His economic fencing will make him tough to beat. As cover I took a chance on backing Noble Prince (not a certain runner) this morning. I punted him when he beat Wishfull Thinking at the Festival off level weights and 12/1 just looks that little bit too big given that he might get in with not that big a weight.

Elsewhere I am looking forward to seeing Cue Card jump a fence at Headquarters and I've taken some 2/1 about him in the novice chase, where he takes on Grands Crus. That horse is the 13/8 fav and I think Victor Chandler (the only oddsmaker to price up the race so far) have them the wrong way round. I think Cue Card's "flop" in the Supreme last March might mean he gets under bet this year when he has tough opponents and I am gagging to get a price about him for the race I mentioned above that Noble Prince won.

Nick Williams has a couple of old favourites entered up also and I think Reve De Sivola might be backable at a biggish price in a tough looking Handicap Chase on Saturday as he always saves his best for this track.

4.05 Friday:
Cue Card £40w @ 2/1

Paddy Power:
Mon Parrain £50w @ 66/10
Noble Prince £30w @ 12/1

Ante-Post Update

Posting this a few hours after Time for Rupert's disappointing defeat in the Charlie Hall. I say disappointing but I mean for my bank balance rather than his Gold Cup prospects. Rupert looked burly today and got tired towards the end of the race which led to the odd mistake. That said he and Weird Al pulled well clear of Chicago Grey and I have topped up at Hills, who actually lengthened him to 16/1. 

During the last couple of days I have been studying for the first big race of the year, the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham on 12th Nov. For these big handicaps I tend to favour classy top weights but Wishfull Thinking seems to have a lot on his plate considering his mark (164 - Denman won his first Hennessy off 161!) and the overall impression I get is that if Mon Parrain can transfer the effortless round of jumping he had at Aintree in April to Cheltenham he will not get beat. That isn't guaranteed of course and backing a horse for a big race there who hasn't run at the track before is naturally a risky proposition. He was so economical in the Topham though that I think it's worth the risk at his price.

Paddy Power:

Mon Parrain £50w @ 66/10

Betfair Chase:
Diamond Harry £10w @ 10/1

Kauto Star Laid @ 6/1 for £20

King George:
Captain Chris £18w @ 98/10

----------------
Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £40w @ 11/1

RSA:
Hidden Cyclone £10w @ 29/1

Champion Chase:
Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1

Jumps are back - waay heyy!

I'm stoked for the start of the Jumps. The winter game seems to get better every year and with me having my best ever punting season last year I'm looking forward to another profitable one (hopefully.) I've even managed to rope in some work colleagues into giving me some money so I can create a ten-to-follow syndicate and I'll be knocking together around ten entries before the off on the 12th Nov.

As I mentioned earlier in the week Time for Rupert is a horse I have high hopes for this season and having backed him earlier in the week for tomorrow's Charlie Hall at Wetherby I topped up once he was declared this morning. He's a good price for the race as is the favourite, Diamond Harry. It's very unusual for the front two in the market in any race to both be backable and I put that down to the presence of Nacarat in the race. This flashy grey won the race last year but carries a big penalty as a result. That, coupled with the fact that the race this year is a far stronger renewal gives him little chance in my opinion. But bookmakers aren't stupid and he's the sort of animal who will attract support no matter what the price - so why not make him 6/1 instead of a more realistic 12s?

Time for Rupert £80w @ 4/1 (lost)

Wetherby - 29th Oct

I didn't anticipate a bet in this race, one that looks a proper match between Time for Rupert and Diamond Harry. But then again I wouldn't have thought any bookmaker would have had Poquelin at shorter odds for it than my Gold Cup fancy. 9/2 taken gladly and I will top up once he's a confirmed runner on Thursday.

Time for Rupert £50w @ 9/2

Ante-Post Update

I was at Aintree yesterday and whilst I didn't have any proper bets it was marvelous to be in the crisp open air on a fine autumnal day watching Jump racing. I'm no photographer but I managed to get a half decent picture of Monet's Garden in the parade ring before the race named after him.

Anyway, all things lead to the Festival in March and I have my share of bets already and have had for awhile.
Sprinter Sacre is a horse I immediately had in mind for the Arkle after his fine third in the Supreme back in March. He strikes as a fine, big chasing type, more so than any of the placed runners in a fine renewal of that Novice Hurdle. None of the leading contenders have jumped a fence yet (I expect Cue Card to be aimed elsewhere) but it looks like a cracking year for novice chasers.

I think the Queen Mother Champion Chase is more wide open than I can ever remember it and the record of the previous year's Arkle winners in the race point towards Captain Chris being worth a bet. I'm a big fan of this horse and thought he'd be my Hennessy bet after he ran really well behind Medermit at Sandown in February over what looked an inadequate two and a half miles - hence me not fancying him at all for the Arkle :(. I think he's going to be a big player this season and I have already punted him for the King George. As for my reasons behind backing him for that race and the Queen Mother, I suppose I'm kind of thinking if he gets beat at Kempton he'll be two mile bound and so I'll have two bites at the cherry so to speak. In any event plans are fluid this time of year and he shouldn't be longer in the market than Finian's Rainbow - a horse he beat very convincingly back in March.

My Gold Cup horse, Time for Rupert, runs at Wetherby next Saturday. This chaser looked an absolute can't miss superstar before his too bad to be true run in the RSA and I think that run, which can be ignored for me, is factored too much into his price. I also think Long Run is way too short at the moment. The likes of Kauto Star and Denman getting to, and running really well in the Gold Cup year after year has made it look easier to get a staying chaser to the race that many times than it actually really is - and I think odds of 5/2 about Nicky Henderson's star at this stage are crazy - and I have to look for alternatives.

Betfair Chase:
Diamond Harry £5w @ 11/1

King George:
Captain Chris £10w @ 10/1

----------------
Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £30w @ 116/10

Champion Chase:
Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1

Ascot - 15th October

Here we go then, with a last throw of the dice to try and make my Flat season at least respectable. I haven't really got going all year, haven't had any season changing bets like I kept having during the winter. It is possible as I get older and more experienced as a punter that the Jumps game is better suited to my style. Certainly the last three or four years seems to suggest that is the case.

The only race that appeals this weekend from a punting point of view is the Champion Stakes. I have already fully discussed this contest in my ante-post updates and the only thing to add now is a general disappointment that the ground isn't softer, and also that I have doubled my bet on So You Think. I think the record of Coolmore animals coming to this race after the Arc (Montjeu, Hurricane Run and Fame and Glory were all short priced losers) has kept his price honest and I think he'll take a world of beating. He's a big, strong animal who looks the type to take a lot of racing.

Cirrus Des Aigles £80w @ 77/10 (won)
So You Think £50w @ 26/10 (lost)


(+199.2)

Ante-Post Update

It's taken a few days to recover from the crushing blow of seeing Sarafina not win the Arc in Paris but I'm ready to roll again. Looking back at that race I really should have been more cautious after the draw was made and could certainly have reduced my bet.
Anyway, my big hope heading into the Autumn was for one big winner to get my flat season well into the green and with Sarafina down I have one bullet left and that is Cirrus Des Aigles in the Champion Stakes next Saturday. The news that So You Think is a likely runner at Ascot is a blow to be honest as the race looked like it was cutting up fine. King George winner Nathaniel I couldn't have at all, mainly because the form of that race is pretty worthless, and it seems to me that the Cecil pair, Midday and Twice Over, were there more for their trainer's Championship hopes than any realistic chance they might have. But the Aussie horse is a massive danger and I have covered as well as topped up on the French gelding.

As for the other bets on the list, the Jumps season kicks into gear very shortly and my initial ante post bets here will be discussed once I'm done with the Flat.

Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £80w @ 77/10
So You Think £25w @ 29/10


------------------------
Betfair Chase:
Diamond Harry £5w @ 11/1

King George:
Captain Chris £10w @ 10/1

Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £30w @ 116/10

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £20w @ 16/1

Longchamp - 2nd October

Biggest day of the flat year and as well as the Arc I'm having a go on Sole Power in the Abbaye. This Irish trained gelding has his conditions today (5F on fast ground) and is simply too big a price. He's a decent win and place bet in a race I don't usually get involved in so stakes are low.

I've written at length about the Arc. Very confident.

Sole Power £15w @ 86/10 and £25pl @ 9/4 (3rd)

Sarafina £180w @ 52/10 (lost)
St Nicholas Abbey £40w @ 24/1 and £40pl @ 69/10 (lost)
Galikova £40w @ 84/10 (lost)


(-361.8)

Longchamp - 1st October

Cirrus Des Aigles is a gelding I've taken fancy prices about for the Champion Stakes in a fortnight. After getting beat by Sarafina at Saint Cloud in June he's on a four timer having been incredibly impressive in his last three starts and I couldn't believe the price Coral came up with initially for the Ascot race. So with that bet in mind I wasn't too happy to see him declared for today's Group 2 Prix Dollar. However, I'm not overly impressed with his opposition today and think he's worth a wager at 9/4.

Cirrus Des Aigles £60w @ 9/4 (lost)


(-100.3)

Prix de l'arc de Triomphe

I've completed my bets on this this morning. St Nicholas Abbey has been confirmed a runner and whilst I can't really fancy him too strongly I think he has cracking place prospects. I'm for Sarafina, SNA and Galikova and against Workforce and So You Think and the 3yo Colts.

Sarafina £180w @ 52/10
St Nicholas Abbey £40w @ 24/1 and £40pl @ 69/10
Galikova £40w @ 84/10

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Just five days to go to Flat Racing's biggest contest and as ever I'm all-in on the race. I have well almost £200 on Sarafina at just over 5/1 and the only thing stopping me having one of my biggest bets ever is a slight uncertainty about the jockey and the fact that she can find trouble in running. Depending on her price nearer the off though I do anticipate at least one further bet.
Galikova really impressed me in the Prix Vermeille and I expect her to run well and make her the biggest danger to my selection. She has a relentless galloping style once in top gear and I think a decent pace over this trip will really suit her. At over 8/1 she is well worth adding to my portfolio. So You Think and Workforce don't worry me at all - the former has never run over this trip and has a running style totally unsuited to French Racing (get in front and hang on) and the latter doesn't look the same animal this year.
At this stage St Nicholas Abbey looks an unlikely runner unfortunately.

Sarafina £180w @ 52/10
St Nicholas Abbey £40w @ 24/1 and £20pl @ 6/1
Galikova £40w @ 84/10

Newmarket - 24th Sept

I posted my initial thoughts on the Cambridgeshire earlier in the week and it looks a cracking contest as ever. In addition to Cry Fury I have decided to back Man of Action as well. A couple of weeks ago this Saeed Bin Suroor trained animal was responsible for my most painful loss of the season. The horse I'd backed that day, Eton Forever, was really fancied and I was horrified when he was nabbed late on by the selection. He took the lead well inside the final furlong and won comfortably by a length and a half. Of course as an early closing race that means the Godolphin horse hasn't been reassessed and only carries four pounds more than he did that day.

The other race I've decided to have a go at is the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes. In this I'm at a loss as to why Sahpresa isn't a lot shorter than 9/4. She's won the race twice before and has immense top class form with Immortal Verse and Goldikova. I can only surmise that her defeat to Timepiece in the Falmouth on the July Course has influenced this price. Although the presence of an Oxx trained animal could also be a factor. In any event she is too big a 9/4.

Cry Fury £60w @ 11/1 (lost)
Man of Action £30w @ 12/1 (lost)

Sahpresa £60w @ 9/4 (won)


(-40.3)

Newmarket - 23rd Sept

One of the many irritating things about betting is when you tentatively work a bet out only to discover once you have bought the Racing Post in the morning that Pricewise has tipped it up. It affects the price and it puts me off blogging about the horse/bet. I have found an angle that Tom didn't cover in his piece though, and that is that this animal is very much a horse for courses. His best form this year was when he ran Twice Over to less that two lengths at York the month before that horse won the Juddmonte - and his best run from 2010 was when winning a handicap at York off a mark of 100 at the Ebor meeting. He won the Earl of Sefton over this Rowley Mile course in the Spring and that suggests that he'll be at home powering up the Dip holding them off. Ultimately I think 5/1 plus is a decent price given how uninspiring the opposition is. I have bigger fish to fry over the coming weeks but it'd be nice to get a bit nearer the black in terms of profit and loss for the season.

Ransom Note £40w @ 54/10 (won)


(-85.3)

Ante-Post Update

I've not had the best of flat seasons up to now but we're coming up to my favourite part of the year now where we have races that I have good records and good memories in. Normally the Cambridgeshire takes place the day before the Arc but from this season it will be the week before. I'm not gonna discuss Racing for Change and the moving of Champions Day from Newmarket to Ascot here but I'm not keen.

Anyway, I've had a look at the race and as a fan of his trainer (Roger Charlton) Cry Fury immediately caught my eye. He has similar credentials going into the race as Pipedreamer did a few years back and he sluiced up. He won a Goodwood handicap very easily last month having run into St Leger runner-up Brown Panther in May at Haydock and he really looks rock solid to me. He's not had many outings obviously and it is a very, very competitive contest but it's one of my favourite races of the season and I'm happy to get involved at 10/1.

I continue to top up on Sarafina for the Arc. I feel incredibly confident about her chances particulary as it looks like it could be a smaller field than normal. Something which reduces the chance of her getting into bother like she did last year.

Cambridgeshire:
Cry Fury £50w @ 10/1

Arc:
Sarafina £130w @ 57/10
St Nicholas Abbey £40w @ 24/1 and £20pl @ 6/1

Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £60w @ 75/10

----------------------------------------
King George:
Captain Chris £10w @ 10/1

Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £20w @ 16/1

Ayr - 17th Sept

Not an especially exciting day's racing today but as I'm at work and it's quiet I couldn't resist looking at the big sprint handicaps at the Scottish track and I might have found a sneaky one at a big price. The Richard Fahey trained 3yo El Viento is too big at 50s for the Silver Cup. He won nicely enough over the trip at Ripon in July before a couple of runs over 7f and although this was an average event with only seven runners it does show he's an animal with a certain amount of scope over the trip and you never know, a rampant twenty odd runner cavalry charge may be right up his street. At a huge price I'll take that punt.

El Viento £15ew @ 50/1 (lost)


(-290.5)

Ante-Post Update

Sarafina cemented her position at the head of the market for the Arc with a nice success at Longchamp on Sunday. I have topped up my position at the 4/1 she touched just after the race.

The horse she beat in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, Cirrus Des Aigles, a gelding who can't run in the Arc, has been put up at 8/1 for the Champion Stakes at Ascot in mid October. This is a race with a nice betting shape at the moment as So You Think heads the market at 7/4 but is more likely to go to Paris and second favourite Twice Over has a poor record at the track. I wonder if Corals oddsmaker realises the race has moved venues. In any event, my selection has won impressively twice since going down to Sarafina, is progressive and will be a lot shorter on the day I would imagine.

Arc:
Sarafina £100w @ 62/10
St Nicholas Abbey £40w @ 24/1 and £20pl @ 6/1

Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £55w @ 77/10


----------------------------
Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £20w @ 16/1

Doncaster - Sept 10th

I've posted my thoughts on the St Leger earlier in the week and have slightly topped up the bet I placed on Blue Bunting a few days ago. However Sea Moon, who heads the market, has been shunted out to 2/1 with Ladbrokes and Hills. This makes him bet material as I really do see this contest as the proverbial two horse race. It's unusual to find a contest where the front two in the market both represent reasonable odds but we have it here (although the average price I have on the Godolphin animal is a bit longer than what she is currently trading at to be fair).

It's actually a really good card at Doncaster today and I was tempted by Zero Money in the Portland but I think he has gone up too much for his win at Haydock the other day. The idea for me with handicappers is to look for the ones who pounce late on the scene, win by a length or so and go up maybe four or five pounds. This horse went clear and was then eased down to win by less than a length - quite flashy really, hence the eight pound hike.

The mile handicap that follows the Leger features the return of Eton Forever. This horse was most eye catching when winning at the track in April and I backed him for the Hunt Cup at Ascot on the back of that success. He wasn't well drawn that day but managed to get a place. He runs well fresh as the Spring Mile win was his first race of the year and although he's not a great price this isn't that competitive an event and he should go close.

Blue Bunting £50w @ 44/10 (lost)

Sea Moon £50w @ 2/1 (lost)

Eton Forever £60w @ 7/2 (lost)


(-260.5)

Doncaster - Sept 8th

On first glance the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster today looks a trappy contest but I think I've found a fair wager. Meeznah has the best form in the race but is only third in the market partly because of her bad run last time out (which really was too bad to be true) and partly because Set to Music is on a five timer and looks a tough nut to crack. However, that filly has never run over today's trip and isn't really bred to necessarily relish this step up. In short she is worth taking on and my selection seems the best alternative.

Meeznah £40w @ 3/1 (won)


(-100.5)

St Leger

For a change we have a quite exciting looking final classic of the season. Sea Moon was incredibly impressive at York in the Great Voltigeur and whilst he is respected I'm not 100% convinced by him. The ground that day was atrocious and may have exaggerated his true superiority. He's also very inexperienced and the Leger is such a hard, grueling contest that I feel he might not have much left at the end of the race. Blue Bunting on the over hand is a tough, dual classic winner who looks like she will relish a long drawn out battle up the Doncaster straight. She's 9/2 on Betfair as I type this and that looks too big. At this stage it looks a price worth taking with a view to topping up on the day. Of the others I am of course very familiar with Census and Brown Panther having backed the latter last time out and having the former on my horses to follow list after his fine run at Royal Ascot. That was with handicaps in mind though - I just don't see either as Classic contenders.

Blue Bunting £40w @ 9/2

Haydock - Sept 3rd

I'm on the course with around nineteen other blokes on Saturday for the second part of a Stag do. I've looked at the card in detail and the main bet of the day will be in the Sprint Cup. I'm loathe to desert Bated Breath after backing him in the July Cup and the Nunthorpe, but the horse that beat him at Newmarket is nicely priced at around 9/2. Dream Ahead followed up his win at headquarters with a most disappointing effort in the Maurice De Gheest over an extended 6f at Deauville. He was even money that day but was never really in the race. One of the templates of my betting is to look for horses who seem to have their odds for a particular contest slanted by their most recent run rather than their overall profile. This happens a lot and I call it the New Approach angle. That horse was sent off at ludicrous odds for the Derby in 2008 after a below par effort in the Irish Guineas on fast ground - a pretty irrelevant bit of form in my opinion at the time.
The bottom line is that Dream Ahead is unbeaten over 6f and maybe the extra hundred yards or so and the soft conditions underfoot went against him in France. In any case he has the best form going into the race and I like the price.

Earlier on the card we have the Old Borough Cup, a heritage handicap over a mile and six. It looks a tough contest and I like a couple in the race. The Mark Johnston trained Shernando has never run over this far before but is out of a Slip Anchor mare and should improve for the step up in trip. He won at Hamilton last week by three lengths having only led inside the last furlong - something that always catches my eye. This is a far harder contest but he has the scope to still be ahead of the handicapper. The other bet in the race is Blissful Moment. This animal was only beaten by Fox Hunt (one of my horses to follow) in a very hot race at Royal Ascot before running down the field in the Ebor over this trip. That run I'm ignoring as it was only  the eighth race of his career - a very tough ask given how hard a race that always is. I've taken 10s about Shernando already and will top up on course.


Dream Ahead £60w @ 5/1 (won)

Shernando £20w @ 10/1 and will have another £20w on course (lost)

Blissful Moment £20w on course (lost)


(-220.5)

Ante-Post Update

Big news over the weekend with Pour Moi being retired after injuring himself at home. It's most unfortunate for the race, but it  makes my Arc positions on St Nicholas Abbey and Sarafina look very good. I've topped up on both since the favourite's defection. I can't understand why the former in particular hasn't come right in as he is owned by the same connections. It seems there really is no other race at a mile and a half for him.

Arc:
St Nicholas Abbey £40w @ 24/1 and £20pl @ 6/1
Sarafina £50w @ 8/1



--------------------------------
Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £20w @ 16/1

Sandown and York - 20th Aug.

I'm going through my roughest punting patch for a couple of years at the moment but you have to keep plugging on and so I've decided to have a go in the big handicap at York today. I originally backed Fox Hunt for this last month but laid the bet back after he ran in a Group race at Goodwood - the theory being that he might not line up today. His trainer, Mark Johnston, has long been a critic of the exalted position handicaps hold in the racing calender. It's interesting that he has decided to let Fox Hunt take his place in this given that the Lonsdale Cup, a Group 2 race over two miles, is on the same card. I suppose the £50K difference in prize money might have persuaded him. Anyway, he carries top weight which is far from ideal - but the sponsors are paying five places and he such a tough, consistent battler of a horse that he must have a chance of going close even with such a welter burden on his back.

Initially I'd only paid attention to York's card today but thanks to a poster on Talking Horses I've been reminded that Chain Lightning, a horse in my notebook from the early part of the season, is running at Sandown today. Now this horse is a course and distance winner who I backed in the Hunt Cup at Ascot. He's gone up six pounds since a good effort over an inadequate trip there and certainly has claims at his favourite track today - but I worry the handicapper may have hold of him now. This is where being on a losing streak really effects the way one punts. I've backed Fox Hunt in the Ebor, a horse who has been creeping up the handicap without winning - so why not back Hannon's horse as well? His run at Sandown after the Hunt Cup (where I wasn't on as he was very short in the market) was a fine effort, second, pulling away from the third horse and finishing behind an animal who kind of had first run on him. Encouraging. He isn't a fantastic price today but I have gone in. Ultimately the pain of a probable loss isn't in the same league as watching a horse in my notebook winning without me being on. Bad times.

Fox Hunt £25ew @ 14/1 (lost)

Chain Lightning £40w @ 9/2 (lost)


(-460.5)

York - Day 3

Can't say I approach the third day of the Ebor meeting with any sort of confidence. That's partly to do with me being on a bit of a losing streak and also the fact that the horse I've punted ante-post for the Nunthorpe today, Bated Breath, won't really be suited to the rain softened ground we have on the Knavesmire at the moment. I'd be very confident if conditions were on the fast side today and I just hope the drop down to five furlongs negates ground concerns. It's not a very good field so fingers crossed.

Bated Breath £40w @ 9/1 (lost)


(-370.5)

York - Day 1

Initially I looked at the opening day of the Ebor meeting with a view to taking on Await The Dawn in the Juddmonte with Midday. But with the ground looking on the slow side now I've decided to let that go. Instead the bet of the day is Namibian in the Voltigeur. This horse won over two miles at the Royal Meeting, a staying performance that kind of put me off backing him in the Gordon Stakes next time out at Goodwood. He won well there however, and carried a penalty to boot. I think this long straight and the underfoot conditions the meeting starts off with will really suit him. The favourite, Seville, has been beaten on this track when a short priced favourite before and he really is an animal that needs to be taken on when his odds look cramped. I think Namibian will certainly out battle him. Other dangers? With this sort of race you have horses who could step up on previous form with the step up in trip - but Sea Moon strikes me as your typical Stoute horse whose price (he is actually shorter in the market than my selection!!) is a reflection on his trainer and not the content of his form. Namibian is a confident selection.

Namibian £70w @ 47/10 (lost)


(-330.5)

Prix Jacques le Marois

This Group 1 contest moves to a Monday this year and I whilst the legendary Goldikova will naturally be tough to beat, Cityscape (who was less than two lengths behind her in the Queen Anne Stakes the last time he ran) is available at a mouth watering 16/1. This is a horse who loves a bit of cut in the ground, something he will get tomorrow, and is just too big a price.

Cityscape £30ew @ 16/1 (lost)


(-260.5)

Newbury - 13th Sept

I'm not having a terrible flat season by any means, but bets are down this year and I'm not sure why. Maybe as I'm getting older I just prefer the Jumps.

Anyway, the bigger bets are not gong in this year, I've had my share if winners - but the shorter priced ones are the horses that are scoring for me.

I like the look of Brown Panther in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes today at Newbury. He was most impressive in the King George V at Royal Ascot and the horse he beat into second that day, Census, is actually shorter in the market. That is because my selection was disappointing in the German Derby in his last race. That contest was run on heavy ground however - surely a good enough reason to dismiss the run. Brown Panther's pedigree suggests not only that this step up in trip will suit, but also that he still has bags of scope. Both his sire and maternal grandsire (Shirocco and Unfuwain) were high class older horses in their day. I respect Meeznah in this also, but this will be far harder than a fillies race at Goodwood. She rates the main danger.

The other Group 3 on the card is the Hungerford Stakes. This looks a two horse race between Excelebration and Dubawi Gold and I favour the latter because I think the bookmakers have underestimated him. He'd have been a nice winner of the Irish Guineas with a better ride from Richard Hughes, who got into all sorts of trouble with him, and I think his poor run behind Frankel at the Royal Meeting must be forgiven. That was his fifth race of the year and the tactics used that day were all wrong. He's a hold up horse but was chased along trying to keep tags on the winner - a suicide mission. Excelebration was given far more patient tactics in the same race and although he ran well to get third the race was run to suit him. I think overall  the Hannon horse has the better form and the prices the two currently are (7/4 and 7/2) are wrong. He's had a two month break and I expect him to win today.
.
Brown Panther £60w @ 54/10 (lost)

Dubawi Gold £60w @ 37/10 (lost)


(-200.5)

Ante-Post Update

Hoof It's impressive win in the Stewards Cup last Saturday has certainly shaken up the market for the Nunthorpe at the Ebor meeting. Not surprisingly having backed him in the July Cup I am rather keen on Bated Breath for this race. He actually fought for his head in the early stages at Newmarket and looks like an animal who will relish a drop down to 5f. I would also add that his run that day would have been good enough to win a lot of renewals in the recent past. I think 8/1 is a cracking price. Hoof It is a danger but is awfully short at 9/2 considering he has yet to run at this level. I'm not a fan of the other sprinters likely to take part and think last year's winner, Sole Power, won a particularly bad renewal. I just hope the price I've taken isn't a reflection on any doubt about Bated Breath's participation. There are a couple of other sprints at 6f that he could take part in, but both these - at Deauville and Haydock - are at venues that are prone to soft ground at this time of year - underfoot conditions that don't suit my selection.

In my last AP update I mentioned that I had backed Fox Hunt for the Ebor but since then I have laid my stake back after seeing him entered in the Goodwood Cup.


Nunthorpe:
Bated Breath £30w @ 8/1

Arc:
St Nicholas Abbey £20w @ 18/1
Sarafina £20w @ 10/1


---------------------------
Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £20w @ 16/1

Glorious Goodwood - Sat

I've not had a look at the whole card yet but have had a bet on Midday in the Nassau Stakes. The bet was placed at 3/1 before the favourite was withdrawn. This has led to a beefy Rule 4 which means a possible 30% deduction in my winnings if my selection wins. To counteract this I have put in a lay IR of part of my stake at a price of 11/10. I'm confident this will be matched as she travels well in her races. Midday was disappointing in her last run, between 6L in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh. However, the only other time she's beaten this far was in a race at the same track - with similar underfoot conditions. That's not a coincidence and her form overall is much the best of this field.

Midday £60w @ 3/1 (won) (Rule 4 deduction - 30p in the £)
IR Lay requested @ 2.2 for £20. (matched)

(-80.5)

Glorious Goodwood - Tues

One of my old favourites, Forte Dei Marmi, returns to Handicap company for the first time this season today and whilst he's not been in the best of form lately I think this drop in class coupled with the fact that it's at Goodwood - a track that is suited to weight carrying - should help him compete. He's not a very confident selection to be honest, and he's not that well drawn either, but with four places paid in an eighteen runner contest he has an each way shot.

In the Lennox Stakes I think Strong Suit is incredibly solid at 11/4. He has strong :p course form and looked a decent tool at the Royal Meeting. Delegator continues to be an overrated animal and whilst I like Red Jazz, and think he's the biggest danger to the favourite, his form has been very in and out since last autumn.

Forte Dei Marmi £25ew @ 10/1 (lost)

Strong Suit £60w @ 11/4 (won)


(-182.5)

Ascot and York 23/7

I've written at length about the King George in previous entries and am fully committed behind Rewilding. I think he remains an underrated horse who has improved leaps and bounds this year. Also at Ascot a horse I noted as one to follow after a fine run at the Royal Meeting, Striking Spirit, runs in the big 7f Handicap. I backed this horse in the Bunbury Cup last time out where he was drawn 1 and was switched upon leaving the stalls to race with the main bunch. Ironically the winner was also drawn low and stayed where he was. Such is life. Anyway, I'm giving him another chance and in a 24 runner field he's backable each way with some firms paying five places.

At York we have an interesting Group 2 race over 10f where dual Champion Stakes winner takes on a field of horses not really proven at the highest level. I'm not a fan of the animal to be honest but I think you can make excuses for his two poorish runs this year and he looks a class above these. I've taken 26/10.

Rewilding £80w @ 32/10 rip

Striking Spirit £30ew @ 11/1 (lost)

Twice Over £60w @ 26/10 (won)


(-289.4)

Ante-Post Update

Still a bit down on the flat and I have to say recent results have been encouraging but painful. Three of the last four horses I've backed have led inside the final furlong only to find one too good.

I'm going against St Nicholas Abbey (my Arc fancy) for his next race, the King George at Ascot. I don't think the short straight there will see him to his best advantage and he looks a poor favourite to me when you consider that Rewilding is in the line-up. That horse was impressive in winning the Prince of Wales at the Royal Meeting and he looks to have improved significantly from three to four. He's the price he is (11/4) because there is a theory that he needs lots of time between races to recover. That may have been a legitimate reason for his defeat in the St Leger last year but I think a year's maturity may have sorted that out. In any event it's being overplayed in the market.

Update 18/7
Since the above entry Workforce has been pretty much confirmed for the King George. This means Rewilding has naturally drifted so I have stepped in again. It also has a knock on effect with regard to the Arc. I don't like King George runners in that race (not too happy about St Nic running at Ascot) and am against last year's winner for the race. A hard race at Sandown and now running on Saturday is not the ideal prep. For that reason, allied with doubts in my mind about the quality of the middle distance 3yo's I have backed Sarafina at 10s. She had a horrible passage when third in the race last year and has been in good form so far this. Her last run doesn't look like mammoth form but she didn't settle at all in a very slowly run race yet picked up really well at the business end. She's clearly trained on and will naturally be given the typical French prep for their biggest race.

King George:
Rewilding £80w @ 32/10

Ebor:
Fox Hunt £10w @ 16/1

Arc:
St Nicholas Abbey £15w @ 16/1
Sarafina £20w @ 10/1


----------------------
Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £20w @ 12/1

July Meeting - Saturday

Tomorrow's big sprint isn't a race I have a good record in but I've been a fan of the Roger Charlton trained Bated Breath since last year and think he can go close tomorrow. He's a horse I liked for the Golden Jubilee at the Royal meeting but the soft conditions underfoot scuppered him that day, although he still put in an encouraging effort. Indeed, the winner of that Group 1 event was behind my fancy earlier in the season. I backed my selection as soon as Betfair formed a market and have topped up since.

My other bet today is in the Bunbury Cup. I noted Striking Spirit as a horse to follow over the trip he faces today after a blinding run in a hot 7f Handicap at Ascot. He's an animal who has been stepped up in trip since moving yards and today's race should suit. I'm just relieved one of the four horses I noted down on this Blog after the Royal meeting is actually running in a competitive handicap. 

Bated Breath £50w @ 12/1 £20pl @ 100/30 (2nd)

Striking Spirit £60w @ 10/1 (lost)


(-297.4)

Eclipse

This is a race to savour as hyped up So You Think takes on Workforce. The latter I've backed at 2/1. He's that big because the stable is out of form and the distance is a bit short of his best. But if you look at the history of this race it is stuffed full of top class 12f winning it. I think the main thing though is See You Think is odds-on despite not having scored at the top level in Europe yet. He therefore has to be opposed in my book.

Workforce £60w @ 2/1 (lost)


(-251.1)

Irish Derby

I've thought long and hard about this race and whether or not Seville is worth a bet or not. I backed him at Epsom where he was most disappointing, but there are some reasons for optimism today. His form when second in the Dante was given a boost when the third won at Royal Ascot and it has to be said our Derby was run at a slow space - something totally against Seville, who has a very stamina laden pedigree. Being held up at the rear was also against him. As for the opposition today, I think Carlton House could be a doubtful stayer over theis stiffer track, especially with give in the ground. And Treasure Beach was flattered at Epsom by racing up with that slow gallop. I can't be too confident about my selection given how poorly he did run there so I haven't gone mad stake wise.

Seville £40w @ 72/10 (lost)


(-191.1)

Ante-Post Update/Ascot Post-Script

I enjoyed the Royal Meeting. I came out of it slightly in front and there were a number of horse that went in the note book.

First was Census. This animal ran on well to finish second in the King George V Handicap over a mile and a half. The winner is a Group class horse who is a leading contender for the St Leger. The runner-up only took second towards the end of the race but still put a length between himself and the third home. I backed Chain Lightning in the Hunt Cup and a return to 10f will suit him - he was just beaten here by specialist milers. I'll back him if he lines up for the St John Smith's at York in a week or so.
Striking Spirit was third from a terrible draw in a 7f Handicap. He's a horse who only recently moved to the Tim Easterby yard and prior to his run here was being campaigned mainly over 5 and 6f. I'll be looking out for him in similar races or even over an easy mile.
Lastly we have Fox Hunt. This Mark Johnston trained horse won the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap over 12f really nicely and had to overcome a wide draw in doing so. He'll be quite highly weighted if he stays in Handicaps but his excellent trainer has a great record at Goodwood, a course that favours top weights and I'm hoping he'll find a race for him there.

Not much action Ante-Post at the moment. I have backed Bated Breath for the July Cup though. He was unsuited by the rain softened ground in the Golden Jubilee last Saturday and holds the winner of that race on form earlier in the year on better ground. It makes little sense therefore that Society Rock is shorter in the betting for the Newmarket race. Roger Carlton's horse looks a potential high class sprinter to me and I expect a big run from him given decent underfoot conditions.

July Cup:
Bated Breath £20w @ 14/1

Arc:
St Nicholas Abbey £15w @ 16/1


----------------------------------
Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £20w @ 12/1

Royal Ascot - Friday

Interesting day ahead but the punting looks hard. In the Hardwicke I think Await the Dawn is way too short but it's hard finding one to take him on. I might have small each ways on Calvados Blues and Passion for Gold but the O'Brien colt could be something special. Haven't made my mind up yet.

I try not to get involved in Group race sprints but I do like the Wokingham as a betting race and after a study this morning narrowed it down to Fathsta, Mac's Power and Pastoral Player. The latter two I've left alone because of the soft ground but Fathsta is worth an each punt at around 20/1. He won a soft ground 6f handicap at York last year very nicely off 94 and runs off only 98 today having gone down 5lbs since that win on the Knavesmire but it seems to me that the races he's been running in weren't really that suitable. These were listed contests, conditions race and handicaps over either too far (7f here at Ascot) or too short (6f at Goodwood on fast). I'm not sure about his low draw but with most bookies paying five places I'm confident of some sort of collection.

Fathsta £20ew @ 20/1 (lost)


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Royal Ascot - Thursday

Onto ladies day. I started the week wanting to get Fame & Glory beat in the Gold Cup despite the fact that I've backed him several times in the past. I wasn't sure he'd stay and he was far from impressive in his two runs thus far this season. But after being reminded how stout his pedigree actually is - by Galileo out of a Shirley Heights mare - I think I've worked out a plan. If he doesn't win today chances are it will be through lack of stamina in the final throes of the race. Bearing in mind how sweetly he travels I have backed him at 5/2 for £120 and have put in an In-Running keep lay (meaning the bet request is valid during the race) at 6/4 for £40 of that stake. I don't think the trainer has had him anywhere near 100% ready so far this year and I expect him to be spot on today. The only evidence I have for that assumption is the way Yeats was campaigned.

Now the rain has come I've had a close look at the Britannia with a view to finding one or two who have soft ground form and look progressive. Chain Lightning from the Hannon stable won a maiden on soft ground as a 2yo at Salisbury and in his only contest this year so far was triumphant in his first handicap over 10f at Sandown. He won that race by a length and a quarter after leading just over 2 out. The fact that he held on despite leading for so long is an indication he is still in front of the handicapper. Now, the fact that this race today is over a shorter trip is a slight worry - as is the fact that it's a race limited to 3yos. But Ascot is a stamina sapping course with an uphill finish so animals who stay further should be OK at shorter trips today. The unexposed nature of most of my fancies rivals means a portion of my stake is each way with the five place concession.

Fame & Glory £120w @ 5/2 (won)

IR keep lay placed @ 6/4 for £40 (matched)

Chain Lightning £20w and £20ew @ 12/1 (lost)


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Royal Ascot - Wednesday

Fantastic Racing today, and it was nice to chill and watch it with no money on the line. The Queen Anne went the way I expected really but I was impressed with Cityscape in third. He is trained by Roger Charlton, one of my favourite handlers on the flat. He runs Bated Breath in the Golden Jubilee on Saturday, and it's nice to see him in form.

Frankel was impressive considering he was asked to go flat out way too soon and is still a horse I would not oppose.

Anyway, onto Wednesday's action. In the Windsor Forest stakes for fillies over a mile I think Music Show is worth a bet at around 9/1. She has the best overall form of these having won the Matron at Leopardstown last year and only getting beat three lengths by the great Goldikova at Deauville. This season she took the boys on first time out at Sandown where she was beaten by Dick Turpin and the aforementioned Cityscape, no disgrace in that. She then found 10f at York too far for her last month. The two market leaders, Seta and Sajjhaa have always been talking horses - both were favourites for the Guineas and Oaks respectively last year at one point - and are always underpriced. The latter in particular has a middle distance pedigree and I can't see her being at her best over a mile. It's a race with a good betting shape to it because of this. I'm a Dreamer looks the only danger in my book and is worth a cover bet. She was impressive over 9f last time out, although the race was run at a fast pace and being held up this played into her hands a bit.

In the Hunt Cup I have already discussed my reasons for backing Eton Forever in earlier entries. Not brilliantly drawn in stall 15 his price had held up until the favourite was pulled out an hour or so ago. I've topped up and because of the draw issue and the enhanced (five places) place terms have had some of my stake each way.

Music Show £50w @ 9/1 (lost)

I'm a Dreamer £40w @ 5/1 (lost)

Eton Forever £30w @ 17/1 £15ew @ 14/1 (5th)


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