Newbury - 13th Sept

I'm not having a terrible flat season by any means, but bets are down this year and I'm not sure why. Maybe as I'm getting older I just prefer the Jumps.

Anyway, the bigger bets are not gong in this year, I've had my share if winners - but the shorter priced ones are the horses that are scoring for me.

I like the look of Brown Panther in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes today at Newbury. He was most impressive in the King George V at Royal Ascot and the horse he beat into second that day, Census, is actually shorter in the market. That is because my selection was disappointing in the German Derby in his last race. That contest was run on heavy ground however - surely a good enough reason to dismiss the run. Brown Panther's pedigree suggests not only that this step up in trip will suit, but also that he still has bags of scope. Both his sire and maternal grandsire (Shirocco and Unfuwain) were high class older horses in their day. I respect Meeznah in this also, but this will be far harder than a fillies race at Goodwood. She rates the main danger.

The other Group 3 on the card is the Hungerford Stakes. This looks a two horse race between Excelebration and Dubawi Gold and I favour the latter because I think the bookmakers have underestimated him. He'd have been a nice winner of the Irish Guineas with a better ride from Richard Hughes, who got into all sorts of trouble with him, and I think his poor run behind Frankel at the Royal Meeting must be forgiven. That was his fifth race of the year and the tactics used that day were all wrong. He's a hold up horse but was chased along trying to keep tags on the winner - a suicide mission. Excelebration was given far more patient tactics in the same race and although he ran well to get third the race was run to suit him. I think overall  the Hannon horse has the better form and the prices the two currently are (7/4 and 7/2) are wrong. He's had a two month break and I expect him to win today.
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Brown Panther £60w @ 54/10 (lost)

Dubawi Gold £60w @ 37/10 (lost)


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