25/10/2010

Ante-Post Update

With the Flat pretty much done I thought I'd update the blog with my current ante-post positions over the Jumps. I've already noted down a few bets which have since been added to. I have backed Long Run for the King George as I believe Kauto Star is now on the decline and is worth taking on. I also have a double going on him after Workforce won in Paris earlier in the month but I can't really include it here as the bet was placed    after I had posted my Arc bets.

As to the Festival, I can't see Kauto or Denman being involved in the Gold Cup shake up this time which means the market has a lopsided feel to it. I have therefore had a few bob on a variety of big priced animals in the hope that at least two of them line-up for the race at much shorter odds and I can play again - probably covering on Imperial Commander.

Mikael D'Haguenet looked a very special horse when winning the Baring Bingham a couple of years back and I've backed him pretty much knowing hell be a short priced favourite come March and I'll be in an excellent position for the race. Zaynar was backed a while ago with the hope that Big Buck's goes chasing. That's not looking likely at the moment but one never knows.

I'll be posting regular updates and my thoughts on the Festival as the winter progresses.

*Update* 30/10
Most of my punting action takes place on Betfair and I don't look at the odds from regular bookmakers as often as I probably should. For the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Festival the exchange has Master Minded the clear favourite by half a point from Big Zeb and yet Stan James has the latter at 3/1 and the former at 11/2. That is just plain wrong. Nicholls charge is a horse that has been a tad overrated in the past but he's still young enough to do himself justice and two things stick out from last year's poor campaign. He was injured when failing to give weight on his seasonal reappearance and even though he was disappointing in the Champion Chase he has had a breathing operation since. In summary I think the prices quoted are the wrong way round and 11/2 has to be taken.







King George
Long Run £10w @ 11/2

Cheltenham Festival:

Champion Chase
Master Minded £40w @ 11/2

RSA
Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 9/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1
Mad Max £8w @ 77/1
Punchestowns £5w @ 23/1

23/10/2010

RP Trophy

As the flat draws to a close I have maybe a couple of chances to turn a small loss overall into a profit and those chances will be Casamento in the Racing Post Trophy this afternoon at Doncaster and Behkabad in the Breeders Cup Turf in a fortnight.

Casamento is the clear form pick in today's Group 1 having been beaten narrowly by the classy Pathfork in the National Stakes on only his second start and then winning the Group 2 that St Nicholas Abbey and Sea the Stars both win on his latest start. He is the favourite today but I expected 9/4 or maybe 5/2 to be his price not the 4.1 available on the exchanges. His main challenger, Dunboyne Express, has not raced since July and has had setbacks but he does have a chance on form tie-ins with my selection. I'm not sure the animals he has beat are ones to be trusted in terms of collateral form however and I think you have to go with the proven Group form. None of the others appeal.


Casamento £40w @ 41/10 (won)

(-88.77)

16/10/2010

Champions Day II

I've already posted my views on the Champion Stakes, a race that has cut up nicely and where I think Vision d'Etat will take a lot of beating. As well as that horse I think 7/2 on Glass Harmonium to place is a good price as well. He went into my notebook with a good run in the Prince of Wales where he didn't get a brilliant run on the outside but plugged on gamely nevertheless.

In the Dewhurst the rain they had last night is good news for Dream Ahead who should be a lot closer to Frankel in the market. 

Vision d'Etat £40w @ 42/10 (lost)
Glass Harmonium £25pl @ 37/10 (lost)

Dream Ahead £40w @ 3/1 (lost)


(-206.57)

11/10/2010

Champions Day

The five day decs are out for the final proper Champions Day jamboree at Headquarters and as ever it's a meeting to savour.
On the racing forum I post in I noted that five of he first six in the betting were terrible prices which left crack French 5yo Vision d'Etat (a horse that saved my bacon after a terrible start to my season last year at the Royal meeting in June) as the only animal for me near the top at the market at anything like a backable price. He's only had a couple of runs this year which means he'll be fresh, but there isn't that much evidence he's as good as he was in 2009. On balance with favourite Twice Over looking well dodgy given how much racing he's had this year and QEII winner Poet's Voice looking overrated on form and a possible non-stayer I make my selection a decent enough punt.

Race of the day though is the Dewhurst, a contest that pits three top, top quality 2yos against each other and may well be the race of the year.
Frankel looked Arazi like in winning the Royal Lodge and I hesitate in taking him on but Dream Ahead won the Middle Park (on this course) by nine lengths against what was a better field and anything over 3/1 will be taken on the day.

Champion Stakes:
Vision d'Etat £29w @ 9//2

02/10/2010

Prix de l'arc de Triomphe

I've posted my views on this race already in my ante-post updates and all I really have add is an update on my bets as I have backed Behkabad and Planteur again.

The ground is riding on the soft side and I have to say with the book I have that I will be fairly devastated if I haven't found the winner this year. I don't see Behkabad as a particulary good value bet but I'm so far ahead of the odds with the price I have on Planteur that I can afford to play again and not worry too much about that.

Planteur £60w @ 12/1 £20pl @ 9/2 (lost)
Fame & Glory £40w @ 13/2 (lost)
Behkabad £40w @ 4/1 (lost)

(-101.57)













Newmarket - 2nd Oct

Cambridgeshire day at Newmarket and unfortunately Forte Dei Marmi doesn't run but there are two or three animals who are very interesting contenders. Taqleed and Nationalism both have form on the prevailing softish ground, both are trained by John Gosden who has a great record in the race and both won their last contests with plenty in hand. As I've said on here before in handicaps I look for horses who lead inside or just outside the final furlong and go onto win by a length or more. These animals do not have their ratings raised as much as they should do and it's a system that has done well for me over the years. Both Taqleed and Nationalism fit this profile and I have backed them both.

Forte Dei Marmi £10w @ 165/10 (NR)
Nationalism £25w @ 7/1 (Lost)
Taqleed £25w  10/1 (Lost)

(+58.43)