Haydock - Sept 3rd

I'm on the course with around nineteen other blokes on Saturday for the second part of a Stag do. I've looked at the card in detail and the main bet of the day will be in the Sprint Cup. I'm loathe to desert Bated Breath after backing him in the July Cup and the Nunthorpe, but the horse that beat him at Newmarket is nicely priced at around 9/2. Dream Ahead followed up his win at headquarters with a most disappointing effort in the Maurice De Gheest over an extended 6f at Deauville. He was even money that day but was never really in the race. One of the templates of my betting is to look for horses who seem to have their odds for a particular contest slanted by their most recent run rather than their overall profile. This happens a lot and I call it the New Approach angle. That horse was sent off at ludicrous odds for the Derby in 2008 after a below par effort in the Irish Guineas on fast ground - a pretty irrelevant bit of form in my opinion at the time.
The bottom line is that Dream Ahead is unbeaten over 6f and maybe the extra hundred yards or so and the soft conditions underfoot went against him in France. In any case he has the best form going into the race and I like the price.

Earlier on the card we have the Old Borough Cup, a heritage handicap over a mile and six. It looks a tough contest and I like a couple in the race. The Mark Johnston trained Shernando has never run over this far before but is out of a Slip Anchor mare and should improve for the step up in trip. He won at Hamilton last week by three lengths having only led inside the last furlong - something that always catches my eye. This is a far harder contest but he has the scope to still be ahead of the handicapper. The other bet in the race is Blissful Moment. This animal was only beaten by Fox Hunt (one of my horses to follow) in a very hot race at Royal Ascot before running down the field in the Ebor over this trip. That run I'm ignoring as it was only  the eighth race of his career - a very tough ask given how hard a race that always is. I've taken 10s about Shernando already and will top up on course.


Dream Ahead £60w @ 5/1 (won)

Shernando £20w @ 10/1 and will have another £20w on course (lost)

Blissful Moment £20w on course (lost)


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